Squabbling Toward the Apocalypse: A Moderate’s Lament
The other night, as my 16-year-old son was grappling with his insane homework load – seven (count ‘em!) assignments in a single evening – I started wondering why we Americans torture ourselves (and our young people) with such vast and insurmountable quantities of busywork.
Is it because we love to toil for the sake of toil? Is it for the bragging rights? (See how industrious I am, you effete, brie-eating Euro-softies!) Or could it be that we don’t know how we’d face the ghastly void of life without a well-defined purpose?
Yes, we’re desperate to avoid the void – by filling it with chores, mental clutter, media addiction… and, of course, rancorous and divisive politics. In just the past month – February, A.D. 2020 – we’ve been treated to a mesmerizing, distracting, void-filling carnival of rip-roaring American political squabbling and nastiness. A few examples:
- The Senate acquitted President Trump of “High Crimes and Misdemeanors,” thereby sparing him the ultimate indignity of removal from office. After much acrimonious speechifying on both sides, the votes almost entirely followed the partisan (i.e., tribal) divide. (Strange, isn’t it, how the partisans can look at the same person and see two wildly different presidents.)
- The next evening, during the annual State of the Union Address, Trump awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to the terminally ill radio polarizer Rush Limbaugh and promoted a 100-year-old Tuskegee Airman to the rank of brigadier general. (Guess which gesture the anti-Trump media chose to focus on, and which one they chose to ignore.)
- At the conclusion of Trump’s SOTU, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripped the text of the president’s speech in full view of Congress, the nation and almighty God – an ostentatiously naughty deed that left no room for reconciliation.
- Not one to be intimidated by his Democratic foes, Trump promptly dismissed the two underlings who testified against him during the impeachment trial. The move was his prerogative as their boss, but it was a public relations disaster: it cemented Trump’s reputation as a thin-skinned tyrant who needs to surround himself with groveling yes-people.
- Meanwhile, during Black History Month, Lebanese-American Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib argued that we must create yet another racial identity group: Middle Easterners and North Africans (MENA). Sorry, Rashida, you’re as white as Danny Thomas (remember him?), and we Americans don’t need to be splintered any more than we already are. We have more than enough self-interested racial/ethnic/sexual/gender factions shouting “Me! Me! Me!”
- The ongoing Democratic debates deteriorated into a depressing series of insult-fests. You’d think it would have been an easy matter to elevate a candidate who could beat the hands-down looniest president in American history, but the Democrats seem intent on handing Trump another four years. As the candidates battered one another with surprising ferocity, they might not have noticed that Trump’s positive Gallup Poll rating edged out his negative rating this past month for the first time ever.
- While former New York Mayor and current multibillionaire Michael Bloomberg saturated the airwaves with his bottomless fount of campaign ads, “woke” Democrats essentially forced him to apologize for the “stop and frisk” policy that disproportionately targeted black neighborhoods under his watch. (Of course, the policy also dramatically slashed the number of black crime victims, but nobody on the left seemed to care about that inconvenient statistic.)
- As the shortest month of the year finally drew to its close, Trump gave us a foretaste of his second term: he called for liberal Supreme Court justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor to recuse themselves from any case involving him or his policies. He proclaimed that the dreaded coronavirus pandemic would pass over these states but assigned his science-averse VP Mike Pence to oversee the matter, just in case. And of course, he continued to threaten cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Does his largely cash-strapped base hold it against him? Of course not.
February’s sound and fury gave us an abundance of diversions and distractions to help us avoid the void. Like my son’s overwhelming homework load, our petty Lilliputian political squabbles kept us from looking inward too much for our own good… kept us off the streets… kept us from being hypnotized by the sights, sounds, sensations and textures of real life: the crisp winter air, the glowing sunset sky, the warmth and crackle of a fire in the fireplace, the bracing taste of coffee in our cup, the cheery bonhomie of old friendships and new acquaintances.
Our manmade diversions also distracted us from the high drama of a world in disarray: the horrific brushfires in Australia, with an estimated one billion animal casualties… the highest temperatures ever recorded in the Antarctic… the inexorable spread of coronavirus from China to the outside world (and its impact on the ever-skittish stock market).
In the end, what matters most tends to get lost in the ambient chaos: the ability to lead a satisfying and useful life on a healthy planet – a planet overseen by benevolent governments that serve the needs of the governed without favoring one class of people over any other class. Call it the moderate’s dream… I call it sanity.
Rick Bayan is founder-editor of The New Moderate. His three collections of darkly humorous essays are available as e-books on Amazon for just $2.99 each. (Just go to Amazon and search under Rick Bayan.)
THE NEW MODERATE 
Sounds as if your son is in a good school. There are way too many today that have decided homework is not needed. Why, is anyones guess but one thought offered on social media was so many kids are from split families and the parent, for one reason or another, does not make sure the kids finish their assignments, so the school does not want them being identified in front of other students in a negative way when they dont turn in the work.
Homework teaches self discipline. He’ll live!
Ron, I’m for moderation in doling out homework. (What else would you expect from me?) I think there’s an optimum amount of homework (maybe 1 1/2 hours a day) that would reinforce learning without crushing a kid’s spirit or making it virtually impossible to lead a well-balanced life. My son’s high school (it’s a competitive public ”magnet” school) has gone overboard in that direction, and it’s not healthy. Also, it favors kids who simply think and work fast over slower-functioning but more creative kids.
Your the parent – you are in control your child’s education.
I have told my story before, but once again.
My daughter was adopted from China. 2 years in chinese orphanages created life long learning disabilities. At the same time if she was not fiercely determined should would not be alive.
I would suggest watching “One Child Nation” – I think it is on Amazon.
Over the course of about 30 years 350m chinese infants, babies, fetus’s whatever you wish to call them were killed. A tiny portion of these found their way to orphanages.
My daughter thrived with excellent pre-school, kindergarten, and early elementary teachers. She was at the top of her class – not because we drove her – but because that was who she was. Everything is hard for her, but she is driven. Our job was to help – and her teachers helped. They responded incredibly to our daughter who despite her difficulties wanted to learn.
In 4th grade all that changed – she got “the team of teachers from hell”.
The decided her difficulties meant she would be happier with students who could not handle the material. She was miserable and failing badly.
My wife and I tried to work with the school, when it became obvious they had no intention of helping. we realized that unless WE took control our daughter was going to be pigeonholed for life. We looked a myriads of options – things we could not afford. Eventually we picked cyber charter school – mostly because it was the easiest thing to try, it would not cost us anything, and parents had more control of their childs education – and they promised a learn at your own pace arrangement that suited our Daughter well.
We picked possibly the worst cyber charter in our state – but our daughter was happy and did well again. It was hard for us, but this was her best chance. We changed cyber charters later. Our daughter graduated deans list, near the top of her class, she is now in college – getting nearly all A’s she is taking college at her own pace and working part time. Her goal is a masters and possibly a doctorate – and she will likely get whatever she wants – at a slower pace than her peers, but at the top of her class – because that is who she is. Everything is STILL harder for her.
To be clear – my wife and I did not drive our daughter. She chose that herself.
Our job was to make sure that whatever her dreams are, to the extent she is willing to work to make them happen – she is able to.
I have no idea whether your son is being overworked or not. I have no idea whether the magnet school is the right choice for him.
But YOU and he likely do.
It is NOT the schools job to determine who you son is, and what his future is.
It is yours and his.
If you really think he is being overworked – DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
I am not selling cyber charters – they are not the right choice for everyone – and they have changed over time. Today’s Cyber Elementary schools would not work as well for my daughter. The proceed at your own pace option is gone.
But there are many choices out there. Find your son the choice that fits him.
If that is actually the magnet school – quit complaining.
Rick, does this happen every day?
Dave and Ron: The 7-assignment day was just the most egregious of a heavy daily homework schedule — usually about 4 assignments a day, including some time-consuming ones.
My son should have been a perfect fit for this science-oriented school, but (like a lot of creative thinkers) he works slowly and tends to be a perfectionist. So, given the heavy homework load (and his wandering attention span when the work doesn’t interest him), he’s always struggling to catch up. I’ve encouraged him to cut corners, but to no avail. It’s a shame that I’d have to resort to advising him to cut corners, but that’s the only way he’ll survive the next 2 1/2 years.
My complaint is that we’re imposing excessive demands on our kids instead of creating a climate that encourages the enjoyment of learning and gives them time for a social life and leisure pursuits. Those things will aid them later in life at least as much as their formal education.
Finland has won attention for going easy on homework while its school system ranks as one of the best in the world. Recent studies have also indicated that homework doesn’t really add much, if anything, to the quality of a student’s education. It just creates stressed-out kids.
Rick, I understand your thinking. I was not being critical nor supportive since I knew nothing on the subject. I do know that my kids during the 90’s who went to Catholic HS usually had up to a couple hours a night, some not more than 1 hour. The amount of work was not constant.
I also know that some teachers do not communicate with other teachers and live in their own cocoon and could care less how much work the kids have when its all added up. My wife had meetings concerning that issue with the principal.
And there is your dilemna. Leaving things as is if he like the school and enjoys school for the most part. Finding a different school if he does not. Attending a PTA meeting, if there is one active, inquiring into the issue with other parents on their kids experience and finally, talking with the principal to explore possible changes that.might occur.
This one is not liberal, conservative or libertarian. This one is individualism. Doing the right thing for your kid to provide him with the best course of action for the best outcome for him. And that comes from a very wise person, my wife, who was front and center in our kids education. They went to catholic schools because that is where she went, same ones. I was just someone from the California system when CA had the best schools in the country.
As for Finland, comparing the USA to them is not fair in my mind. The Finns and Americans are very different. For one, the outlook about education by most people in Finland is very different than us. One big reason is child poverty rate is just over 5%, while here it is 16+%. And the biggest, Swedes and Russians make up the largest group within their minority population. Very different than our black and hispanic minority. More like our Asian minorities when it comes to family, education, etc.
Your son sounds alot like my daughter. ‘
What i have learned in dealing with her.
One size does not fit all – not in cloths – not in education.
Like my daughter your sons educational needs are not the same as most other kids.
Government is abysmal are dealing with people as individuals. Government is about one size fits all solutions. They do not fit any of us well and for some they are disasterous. Government does not care.
Ultimately it is our own responsibility to meet our needs (or those of our children)
What would benefit your son might be shared by many other parents and children – but not all.
But I will amplify and agree with you on one area we expect far too much from education today.
It is not the job of our schools, our teachers, our govenrment to inculcate values into our children. these are the responsibility of parents, family churches, community.
When we start teaching preschoolers about Gender and gender equality, that comes at the expense of the core role of our schools, which should be the fundimentals, the tools they will need in live, the foundations for critical thinking. We need to move from teaching kids what to think back to teaching how to think – which is harder.
“Dave, the point of my column was that all the petty political squabbling is hogging our attention”
Then don’t pay attention. our elected officials, their conflicts, the media all fixate on what they think draws our attention. If you want them to change – quit paying attention until they focus on things you care about.
“and that it pales into insignificance (or should) when we think about what really matters in life.”
I have noted over and over that as a planet as a nation as a people we are doing better than ever in human history in every way.
If Our politicians (and media) have no great problems to confront, they will work on smaller ones and they will strive to make those appear more dramatic and important than they are.
It is natural that as were are better off as we have more of what we want and need we will focus on wants and needs that are increasingly less significant, and we will amplify their importance because they are what we are focused on.
“As for Trump, I give him credit when he does something right… but the daily barrage of lies and bullying becomes mind-numbing. He’s a narcissist and an autocrat; he’s used to running his own show and can’t seem to comprehend the balance of powers (along with numerous other things that he can’t seem to comprehend).:”
I have been actually bullied in life. I have been called all kinds of names, and I have been beaten up. I care far more about firsts than words.
Trump has transformed the presidency – though I think that change was inevitable, it is just the pollution of the presidency with the same tactics that have permeated our media, the left and the rest of politics.
I would further suggest that you contemplate the possibility that Trump does what he does because it works, and it works because of YOU or atleast lots of other people.
As to being a narcisist autocrat used to running his own show. He was elected specifically because of that. He was elected to “drain the swamp” he was elected to make his campaign promises into reality. It is NOT Donald Trump seeking to impose his will by force on 3.5million federal bureaucrats. It is the elected president seeking to impose the promises that he made to the american people that got him elected.
Trump may be an autocrat a narcisist, a bully, but he is doing “the will of the people”.
Just to be clear – our constitution and any legitimate government is NOT empowered to do anything the people want. Should Sanders be elected pretty much all of what he has promised is unconstitutional and a violation of the actual rights of the majority of people.
Trump’s campaign promises and his efforts to impose them are NOT (mostly) at the expense of the rights of individuals.
It is not autocracy, totalitarianism, dictatorship to restrain the federal governments interferance in the lives of individuals.
Rick
While an interesting post, and maybe even mostly accurate, it misses the most important point. Most of this all DOES NOT MATTER.
We are pollarized, outraged, spewing viterperations over nothing.
It appears Covid-19 will pass by with little carnage – beyond riling the markets.
But if it does not – at worst it will hit like a bad flu season. This will NOT be the 1918 Flu or the black plague. Periodically nature reminds us that IT not WE are in control.
And oddly – this time – we MIGHT prove that wrong.
But no matter what the outcome – mistakes will be made, and at the same time those mistakes will not really effect the outcome. If it is actually possible to stop Covid-19 from spreading across the US – it will be stopped, and that will happen whether Trump, Pence, Obama or Biden is in charge. And if it is NOT stopped – it would not have been stopped had Obama, Clinton or Sanders been in charge.
Further the spitball fight in congress over funding is irrelevant. The outcome will not change if congress appropriates nothing, 1.5B or 8B – though our impression of congressmen might change.
You say Trump is the looniest president ever – quit LISTENING – to him, the media, the left, …
And pay attention to what is actually HAPPENING.
Trump is NOT the great savior he claims to be, nor is he “the looniest president ever”,
He is an average president with a slightly below average economy who has the luxury of following two POOR presidents. While both of them brought more dignity to the presidency, they were also BOTH failures.
Again what do you care about – WORDS, or ACTS ?
Absolutely, the country is split – we live in two differnet realities – or more accurately half of us live in reality, and the other half living in 150m different personal realities.
AGAIN – what matters – WORDS or ACTS ?
Of course we are divided – that is actually designed into our system of govenrment.
Government is power and we are pretty much NEVER likely to agree on how to use power. We will compete over different priorities for using that power, or even whether to use it all.
That we do not agree is nothing new. Even the nastiness is not really all that new – go read our founders about each other.
But the fact that we are divided does NOT answer the question of what we should do.
On any issue – the political divisions of the country tell us NOTHING about the answers.
One of the things I have railed about at TNM is that because we are divided that DOES NOT make the correct answer in the middle. On any given issue, the answer could lie with the right, the left, the middle or somewhere totally different. Further if we are anywhere near equally divided the BEST choice is for govenrment to DO NOTHING – to leave the choices up to individuals NOT government. We should always resist the desire to use FORCE to solve our problems. It is RARELY the right choice.
Personally what I find most disturbing is that we – US, all of us, gay, straight, black white, brown, men women, rich poor, …. live in the best place in the world at the best moment in history (except tomorow) and yet half of us are ranting that we live in hell, that these are the worst of times.
Whether it is left or right, with VERY FEW exceptions, if someone of group is telling you the sky is falling, the world is about to end, that some problem demands our immediate attention, with extremely rare exceptions – they are WRONG, they are either lying or they are dupes.
You produced a long list of conflicts and “outrages”.
Will ANY of those matter in 6 months ? 6 days ?
We are always going to have conflicts – that is the nature of govenrment.
What is unusal about the moment is the degree of outrage over next to nothing.
That is a self correcting problem.
Dave, the point of my column was that all the petty political squabbling is hogging our attention, and that it pales into insignificance (or should) when we think about what really matters in life.
As for Trump, I give him credit when he does something right… but the daily barrage of lies and bullying becomes mind-numbing. He’s a narcissist and an autocrat; he’s used to running his own show and can’t seem to comprehend the balance of powers (along with numerous other things that he can’t seem to comprehend).
Rick, at least one person understands my thinking about Trump. And yes, I probably support more of his positions than you, but I am addressing his personal behaviors.
But if the Democrats think Biden is moderate, we are in trouble. Maybe the Biden back in the early 90’s, but certainly not now. Remember, he was Obama’s biggest PPACA supporter. Supporting anything that forces any citizen to buy a private companies product that ends up driving their profits up considerably is anything but moderate.
What will a biden or Sanders or Warren or Bloomberg presidency be like ?
The first and most fundimental question is – does the GOP hold either the house or the senate ?
If Not then it will look much like 2009-2010. That brought us ARRA, and PPACA, Cash for Clunkers, Dodd-Frank and a host of nonsense.
Expect much the same if democrats control all three branches of government – even nominally. It will not matter which democrat is elected.
Assuming that the GOP holds the senate – expect much like the period from 2011-2016,
Gridlock in congress and the president doing whatever he can unilaterally.
Expert more regulation a decline in the economy basically the same overall stagnation as the last 3/4 of Obama.
It is irrelevant which democrat is elected. The power to move this country to the left significantly without the control of congress is extremely limited.
Nothing any democrat is promising will happen absent control of congress.
And control of congress and the ability to take big steps will absolutely assure that Republicans return to power as rapidly as possible.
I think it is lunatic to vote for Sanders. He is not even a progressive but a real old school socialist. But electing him is not the same as a socialist take over.
I do not think in practical terms that there will be much difference between any democrat as president.
If anything Sanders might be a better president – because he would be much like Rand Paul, just too different from the status quo to accomplish anything.
With respect to the “balance of power”.
In what world – in a perfect world ? In constitutional government as I would imagine it ?
Or in the actual world of our government as it has been for decades ?
In the hypothetical – I support congress taking back powers it has ceded to the executive.
The power of the purse, the power to tax, the power to legislate, the power to regulate, the oversite of the executive – these are the legitimate powers of congress. Most of which congress has largely ceded to the executive.
Whether it is Devin Nunes or Adam Schiff demanding witnesses or information from the executive – with very few limits they should get what they request.
In my perfect world FOIA is broad, Congressional oversite is broad, executive priviledge is narrow.
But that is not the real world we have today. When the house was republican – DOJ/FBI – under both Obama and Trump pretty much stonewalled the houses requests for information.
Holder never provided congress with the information they requested on fast and furious, or the IRS or the DOJ’s entanglements with the IRS or a host of other areas of inquiry.
Rosenstein totally stonewalled Nunes inquiries into what we now know was a hoax investigation by the DOJ/FBI. It should be self evident today tbhat the stonewalling Rosenstein did was not to protect national security but to hide misconduct from congress and the public.
So please tell me how Trump’s failure to cooperate with the house in some way is more egregious than what preceded ?
Trump has done nothing to alter the balance of power. He has been far more careful to act inside his legitimate powers as president than Obama or Bush.
Todate Trump is the first president Since Jimmy Carter that has NOT started some kind of foreign military conflict.
The DC Court of appeals just ruled on the House subpeona of WhiteHouse Counsel McGahn, and it rejected soundly the house subpeona authority.
While I personally think that decision was overly broad – some of the key elements of the reasoning are absolutely correct, and a welcome return to constitutional govenrment.
The court noted that Congress is not a law enforcement body and that outside of impeachment it has not investigative and enforcement power. That means that most of the oversite work of congress – including its subpeonas does not implicate due process or the 4th amendment. But when the house acts as an investigative and law enforcement body, that it must conform to the requirements of due process and the 4th amendment.
If you are unable to grasp that the “faux impeachment” egregiously violated the 4th amendment and due process, then you are blind.
But let me simplify – the DC 5th circuit court of appeals found that the House abused its power – not the president. Atleast according to the 5th circuit court of appeals the only effort to disrupt the balance of power was by the house.
If you wish to disagree, to argue otherwise – that is fine, we can have that discussion, debate, argument. i think that the 5th Circuit got some things wrong.
But if you wish to claim that there is some clear binary issue where Trump is black and the house is white – you are taking an indefensible extremist position.
To use your own language – you are NOT moderate.
The 5th circuit decision at worst gets the balance wrong. It is not a extreme position that is not merely wrong on every point, but wrong in its observations regarding history and congresses actions.
Put simply the argument that Trump is disrupting the balance of power in some dramatic way is bull droppings.
I actually find your claim that Trump does not understand the balance of powers argument extreme and offensive.
There is a giant gulf between Trump’s words and his actions. On major issue after major issue Trump’s actions as president have ultimately been upheld by the supreme court – and not usually by only 5-4 majorities. Obama lost inumerable issues 9-0 at Scotus I do not think Trump has lost any. That is pretty much ANTI-Authoritarian,
i am constantly carping about Force and the justification for the use of force with respect to government.
THAT Alone is the criteria for legitimacy of government.
As The Declaration of independence states – the purpose of government is using FORCE to protect individual liberty. When government fails to do that we may justifiably terminate that government and replace it.
In certain ways the declaration of independence is MORE important than the constitution.
The declaration specifies the purpose of govenrment and the acceptable basis for replacing government by FORCE if necescary.
THAT is the criteria for Judging Trump or Obama.
When the declaration of independence lists the offences of King George it does not do so by claiming he was a whiny bully. It specifies specific CONDUCT that abridges the rights of citizens.
It is CONDUCT that determines whether a President (or congress or judiciary) may be FORCIBLY removed.
All other choices are by vote.
You are free to vote for or against socialists, loud mouths, …. As is every other citizen.
You have no power beyond persuasion to sway the vote of another citizen.
And only citizens may vote. Putin has no vote in our elections.
An elected president, appointed judge or any other moment of our government can only FORCEABLY be removed for the criteria in the declaration of independence.
That is removed independently of the will of the people.
A majority of people can elect an avowed socialist who promises to make the US a socialist country and there is nothing those of us who oppose can legitimately do until the next election SO LONG AS that socialist president ACTS within the confines of the constitution – and the definition of legitimate govenrment in the Declaration.
Conversely ANYONE in government – who ACTS outside those constraints – regardless of ideology can be removed – by FORCE if necescary, regardless of the will of the majority.
The entirety of the above reduces to government that infringes on individual liberty by force without justification is illegitimate whether popular or not.
There is no character test in the declaration of independence, or the constitution.
We get to judge character at elections.
All the other assertions – bullying, narcisist, authoritarian, as subjective criteria are the domain of elections. As objective criteria they reduce to – was FORCE used and was that use justified.
Mother Theresa is not free to use force absent justification. Stalin is free to use force with proper justification.
Government DOES NOT serve the needs of people – that is idiocy.
We do not each have the same needs. We do not have common needs that we agree on.
Govenrment fixated on providing for our needs MUST fail – the distinguishing feature of humanity is our individuality. We not only look different – as most other living things do, but we do not think the same we do not share exactly the same values, wants desires – needs.
Meeting our needs is OUR JOB, each of us individually.
The purpose of government is to protect our liberty to be able to do so. To protect us from others who would use force to compel us to meet their needs rather than ours.
It is irrelevant whether they beat us with sticks into meeting their needs rather than ours, or whether they leverage the force of govenrment to do so.
Government that attempts to meet the needs of the people MUST fail.
Dave, you and I are living in our parents and grandparents “yesterday”. To think the individual is responsible and not government today is archaic thinking.
“Dave, you and I are living in our parents and grandparents “yesterday”. To think the individual is responsible and not government today is archaic thinking.”
Gravity is so “yesterday”
If you want government to take care of your needs – humans will become ants.
Individuality is antithetical to central planning.
Dave, you present a classic libertarian’s view of what government should do; i.e., next to nothing. But what about defense, national parks, highways, public education and other basic functions that you might be taking for granted? And to take it a step further, into what you’d consider “socialist” territory, what’s wrong with the government providing a safety net to cover for the unpredictability of the free market? Should the unfortunate just die and decrease the surplus population, as Scrooge suggested (before his Christmas transformation)?
You disdain the middle ground between pure capitalism and socialism, but why do you think (as you insist) that we’re living in the best of times? It’s at least partly because the government has created those safety nets and imposed mild restrictions on the free market. (Think about the abolition of slavery, child labor laws, and unemployment compensation, for starters.)
Yes, and providing a safety net now, to provide free testing and treatment to slow the spread and severity of the coronavirus …
Jay, we can debate lots of things regarding Covid-19.
But there are several things that are not debateable.
It is irrelevant whether Trump or Obama is president. Those in government dealing with this are doing pretty much the same things.
Nor will throwing money at the problem change anything in the short run.
We can not have more masks, more testing kits, more hand sanitizer more latex gloves, more …. in the next few weeks. What exists is what we have.
Over time – and probably rapidly the free market will respond to the obvious demand – and they will do so whether government dumps money on this or not.
We will have antivirals – as quickly as they con be produced – if existing ones are effective and as quickly as they can be discovered and tested if nothing effective exists.
We will have a vaccine – as quickly as the government allows it to be approved.
We will have test kits and gloves and masks, and …. as soon as those can be produced.
There should be no doubt the free market can respond fast – far faster than government is likely to allow. But it can not respond to a sudden global spike in demand instantly.
With any epidemic, the key is the actions taken at the start – when resources are limited and little is known.
I noted that the free market can respond fast, but even the free market can not respond to an actual exponential curve. That is why the graph of new infections on John’s hopkins site is the most important peice of data in the world. The flatter the curve the more time the market has to ramp up and get ahead. The steeper the curve the more we shift to triage and husbanding scare resources for those who will benefit the most.
We can not redesign society to stop the unstopable virus that everyone is afraid of.
The most important things we can do now are to slow or stop the spread.
We can spend $1m per infected person now, and spend far less than if we spend $100 if this goes exponential.
But we have to work with what we already have. Not what we will have in two weeks or two months.
And that is true regardless of who is president.
Further there are variables we have no control over.
If this gets out of control in mexico or central america – we do not have the means to stop it from going out of control in the US. We can deal with exposure coming through air travel.
We can not come close to stoping it at a porus southern border.
“But what about defense, national parks, highways, public education and other basic functions that you might be taking for granted? ”
i do not in anyway take those for granted. AGAIN the function of government – as established by thousands of years of experiment and best philosophically explained by Locke and in practice by our founders with the declaration of independence is “the protection of individual liberty”.
Does defense protect individual liberty ? I think it is pretty easy to justify national defense on an individual liberty basis – that does not mean all defense is justified, but atleast as we debate how much national defense we must have, we have a principled starting point.
National Parks ? Nope. I can go into a long diatribe – there is plenty of information available if you want to find it of how absolutely horrible a steward of land the government is. Further our founders constrained the federal governments ownership of land within states to the District of Columbia and that which was needed to for national defense – Forts.
Until very late in the 19th century federal ownership of significant land inside a state was considered unconstitutional.
But I want to go one step farther – we have government that does many things that are illegitimate – such as owning national parks. That fact is NOT justification for carte blanche rejecting the idea of limited government.
The fact that YOUR personal conseption of limited government is far broader than mine, does not mean there are no limits to government.
The fact that you find national parks, and highways, and public schools justified does not mean ANYTHING is justified.
“And to take it a step further, into what you’d consider “socialist” territory”
I do not especially care about the “socialist’ label, my position is simple.
The bigger government is the bigger its negative impact and the smaller its positive impact
You and I can debate where the “balance point” is – you clearly are prepared to accept more as “net positive” than I am, but our disagreement on the precise location of the balance point, does not mean there is no point at which government is net negative.
“what’s wrong with the government providing a safety net to cover for the unpredictability of the free market? ”
Stealing is immoral. Taking things by force from others is immoral except where justified.
We have sympathy for those who steal bread to feed their children, we do not pretend it is not a crime.
“Should the unfortunate just die and decrease the surplus population, as Scrooge suggested (before his Christmas transformation)?”
Wrong question. You keep trying to pretend that every possible positive moral duty og an individual is a collective duty of government.
Scrooge found his soul, and when he did so he engaged in charity, he did not demand that the british crown provide a social safety net.
Look arround the world – there are infinitely more legitimate positive moral demands on each of us than can possibly EVER be met.
You may wish to provide govenrment aide to those whose homes were destroy by hurricanes. I am far more concerned about orphans in China, Rep. Ilibran is more concerned about the starving in Somalia.
There is no such thing as a “safetynet” – humanity does not have the resources to “save” everyone in need – certainly the US does not, even if taxes were 100% of GDP.
It is not EVER the legitimate role of government to decide how to meet our individual positive moral obligations.
You may not take away a persons liberty in order to do charity for another.
You are on the wrong side of morality.
The ends do not justify the means.
“You disdain the middle ground between pure capitalism and socialism,”
Framing error. I talk about individual freedom – not capitalism. It is fraudulent to presume that we can separate from individual liberty some faux construct and call it capitalism, and pretend that our other liberty is still secure when government infringes on that faux subset.
As I have noted over and over at the tails of every chain of economic exchanges is a freedom that is not purely economic.
Last night I went out to dinner with my wife. We had a wonderful time. The dinner came with a bill, we echanged money for food with a restuaunt, but though the narrow transaction was only about food, any government interference in that transaction is interference in my freedom to have a wonderful evening with my wife.
You can not regulate what you call “capitalism” without regulating things that are most of us do not think of as economic.
“but why do you think (as you insist) that we’re living in the best of times?”
Because by most every measure we are.
“It’s at least partly because the government has created those safety nets and imposed mild restrictions on the free market.”
Nope, and if you really want to delve into this deeply – not only is there no evidence of that, but in fact there is LOTS of evidence to the countrary.
Just at the top most level – larger government in ANY FORM for ANY PURPOSE reduses the rate of improvement of standard of living – interesting the same data that demonstrates that for even 10% of GDP that government consumes the rate of increase in standard of living declines 1%, ALSO demonstrates that when that spending is for the “safety net” that there is an additional 1/3% reduction in the improvement of standard of living.
Different data on the same issue shows that standard of living rises faster the higher the level of economic freedom – throughout the world – universally.
You can not provide a “safety net” at zero cost. We have discussed elsewhere – and again there is LOTS of data on this that of every dollar govenrment collects $0.65-$0.75 is wasted.
Do you think that government does better when it is providing the safety net ?
To raise the standard of living of the “most vulnerable” by $0.25 you have reduced the average standard of living by $1. And there is actually good reason to beleive you have done far worse, because the so called “safety-net” is an enormous DISINCENTIVE to self improvement.
“(Think about the abolition of slavery, child labor laws, and unemployment compensation, for starters.)”
Slavery is trivial – it is a violation of rights. Even Locke railed against Slavery.
The history of child labor laws is horrible – right up through the present.
They are EVIL not good.
Child labor disappears on its own when standard of living rises sufficiently.
The only thing that Child labor laws have ever done is prolonged and increased poverty for those that did not have sufficient standard of living to afford the luxury of children not working.
Humans have existed 150,000 years. For 99.99% of that children have worked as soon as they were able. It is the advent of that capitalism that you are attacking that has made it possible for us not to require our children to work.
Unemployment compensation: I have no problem with insurance, with flood insurance, with health insurance, with unemploymment insurance, with disability insurance, with life insurance. I am once again OPPOSED to government involvement.
Why would anyone sane trust government to get right something as difficult as insurance ?
Why would anyone want to do most anything as inefficiently as government ?
The choice is NOT do something through government or not at all.
For most of human existance. the “unfortunate” would “decrease the human population” – because there was no alternative. No one sane would conclude that cave men could provide universal health care. That Tutankhamun’s egypt could provide social security, that Louis the 14th’s france could provide a UBI.
Your safety-net is ultimately provided by individual prosperity – not government.
All you are debating is whether charity is voluntary or involuntary.
Please explain the morality of involuntary charity ?
If I give $50/month to provide resources to children in Nigeria – I fulfill a positive moral duty, I do a good thing, I improve the lives of others and myself, and I can feel good about what I have done.
If Government takes $50 from me, wastes $35 and gives the balance to some addict to provide for her child – has ANYONE fulfilled a moral duty ? Has ANYONE actually done a good thing ? Should I feel good about myself ? Has ANYONE actually benefited ?
I am sure that you will claim my position is extreme – will accept that it is beyond TODAY’s norms – though it would be extremely LIBERAL for nearly all of human existance.
But the extremity of my position does not alter the fact that the only argument you have made is that my position is wrong.
You seem to think that the safetynet is a good thing – what does that mean ?
Now we are told we need universal healthcare, medicare for all – how do you justify that ?
How did we get from government providing food and shelter to job security, to pensions, to health insurance to now free college education ?
Where is the line between “the unfortunate should die and reduce the surplus population” and anyone who wants should be free to get a law degree or one in art appreciation and be fully supported while they do so ?
Humans make incredibly poor decisions – when there is no apparent cost to those decisions.
It is the fact that our choices – like education and medical care have costs we must pay which disciplines us to make wise choices.
The warmest year in the past 40 years was 2016, the 2nd warmest year was 1998, 2019 is the 3rd warmest year – not the first or the 2nd.
The current rate of warming is .13C/decade – that is almost exactly the same as it has been since the bottom of the little ice age 250 years ago, and long long long before human’s could have had any effect on climate.
2019 Southern Hemisphere temps are not only LOWER than those of the northern Hemisphere – that is due to the inclination of the earth, but 2019 was NOT the 3rd warmest year for the southern hemisphere it was substantially further down the list.
The antartcic event that you refered to was the consequence of something that is quite common in the norther hemisphere but quite rare int he southern hemisphere – a “polar vortex”. These events have dramatic effects on whether – but near zero effect on climate.
During this “polar vortex” there was NO CHANGE in the souther hemisphere global temperatures – but those of antartica rose, and those of austraila tanked for
Weather patterns change naturally as the water temps change. Following any period of neutral or el nino years there is an increase in water vapors that create to polar vortex you mentioned. When this happens it increases precipitation. This requires cloud cover which in itself increases temps since clouds are like the earths blankets. So the Artic region which may have an average winter temp of minus 25 degrees may end up zero to minus ten. At the same time, the increased precipitation creates more frozen cover in the region, replacing what had melted previous years. The increased frozen cover reduces temps once the polar vortex dissipates and the earths rising temps reverses.
This site has a presentation good until next Saturday. All the way on bottem screen. Make sure volume icon is on.
https://www.weatherbell.com
There is solid evidence that the earth is warming.
It has been warming for 250 years.
To the extent the rate of warming has changed at all, it MIGHT be .02C/decade higher than it was before 1970. Even that is subjective as there have been times in the past 250 years the trend was faster and times it was slower.
Since 1998 there has been little or no warming at all.
Of more than 100 climate models, there are no more than 4 that could possibly remain valid, and those do not forecast catastrophe.
We are about 2.5 std dev below the median prediction. Normally in real science such a deviation means FALSIFIED.
When a scientic hypothesis is unfalsifiable – when the failure of that hypothesis to conform with reality does not result in rejection of the hypothesis – we are dealing with FAITH not science.
I do not know what future climate will be, but I know that warmists can not predict either.
Further I am very tied of those buying into a massive cult claiming they are pro-science, and those expecting that scientific hypothesis’s that fail will be rejected and reexamined are somehow anti-science – for what ? For demanding that our purported intellectual superiors actually conform to the rules of science ?
I consider CAGW to be an IYI test. Maybe a decade ago it was still possible to buy.
Today if you are still buying CAGW – no matter how well educated and how well read you are – you are an idiot.
If you do not have the critical thinking skills to reject a thesis that has ben falsified every year for the past 2 decades – you should not be trusted about anything.
No Rick, I’m betting she doesn’t have recognition of someone as ‘ancient’ as a Golden Age TV personality like Danny Thomas, prominent before she was born. But if she does know who he is she’d likely disapprove of him: a confirmed Catholic, who Americanized his name (Amos Jacobs Kairouz ) as did generations of previous Americans, because they wanted to be perceived as American.
Through the marvelous technology of YouTube reincarnation, dozens of episodes of Danny’s shows are available for nostalgic re-viewing.
Jay: Funny to think now that all our diverse ethnic groups once aspired to join the great melting pot instead of yelping for special recognition. Those were the days. (I miss Danny Thomas.)
Most diverse groups today and in the past have BOTH sought to hold on to their identity as well as to join as americans.
American exceptionalism was not and is not about White male Angle Saxon Straight protestants. It was about being part of a country where people were free.
What has changed since the 60’s is that the liberalism of individual freedom – for everyone regardless of immutable atributes, is not a progressive hierarchy of virtue based on historical oppression.
The left has taken the class warfare of communism and expended it to race, sex, gender, orientation, ….
The objective is NOT freedom, or diminishing discrimination and tolerating differences, it is to increase conflict and to punish The great great grand children of people who we presume owned slaves because today their skin is white.
Objective appraisal:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/the-worst-case-scenario-for-coronavirus-dr-jonathan-quick-q-and-a-laura-spinney
Yeah really objective. For those with no medical background, just more super negative info to scare the shit out of people and further promote panic buying of masks, etc.
I decided not to completely pan the article – there was alot of information that was accurate.
Mostly – though not completely the reporter was more pushing disater than Quick.
There were a couple of important self contradiction.
The high mortality rate can not co-exist with significant asymptomatic cases.
A vaccine can not be ready for human trails and over a year away.
If a vaccine is possible, Covid-19 will never become endemic.
Covid-19 is closely related to SARS and MERS – both were deadlier and burned out faster.
Quick addresses the fact that stopping a pandemic requires responding quickly at the start.
That is correct – but we responded more quickly to MERS and SARS because they were much more deadly – which means they were obvious much faster.
At the moment we have likely set the ceiling for the mortality rate – but we do not really know it yet.
Withing the past week we found an existing antiviral that reduces symptoms by about 50% – that could reduce mortality radically.
We also know that the mortality of the Flu in developed countries is about 1/10 that in undeveloped countries – there is likely to be a similar pattern with Covid-19.
There is also significance to the number of cases in China – We are more than 2 months in – this started in Mid December, and we have 80K cases, almost all in china. and for the past several weeks the rate of infection has slowed.
Wuhan has 11M people. If we assume that all cases in China are in Wuhan and that before this burns out in China there will be atleast twice as many more cases.
That is still an infection rate of 1:100
Put simply that means this disease does NOT spread easily.
I was going to pan this – because there are a number of significant errors or contradictions in this article. But there is also alot that is accurate to the extent we know at the moment.
It si near certain that WHO will ultimately call this a pandemic – that is a definitional issue.
The odds of this becoming endemic ar extremely low.
The common cold is endemic because there are too many variations.
The Flu is NOT endemic – as we do not get the same flu each year, and it is unlikely we will see a Flu strain repeat in our lifetime.
We have no evidence at this time that Covid-19 mutates rapidly, and even if it does, the general trend for parasites is to mutate towards lower mortality. Diseases that kill their hosts are by definition unsuccessful. Nature disfavors them.
Quick notes the existance of “silent” or asymptomatic cases, but fails to take notice that although a large percent of asymptomatic cases radically decreases the odds of contolling this – it also means our mortality numbers are way high.
Further if the frequency of asymptomatic cases is high we will know that with near certainty very shortly. New cases in China are declining. If that trend continues, China has gained control. But if the number of asymptomatic cases is high – control is near impossible, b ut that also means the mortality rate is much lower than data indicates.
What little Quick cites of the gates simulation makes it self evident it is not applicable.
So weird, Jay. I actually don’t recall you making a big deal about the thousands ofAmerican deaths each year from the flu viruses that work there way over from China, although I’m sure that you must be angered that presidents in the past have not provided free vaccines and masks and shut down schools and shopping malls, in order to prevent the spread of the current year’s version.
Because you’re not rooting for panic or anything….
I am trying hard (though not always succeeding) at not whacking Jay on this.
Lots of people are panicked
We have a propensity to assume the worst case – and then amplify that some.
MOSTLY Jay has not be that political about this.
But whether is SHOULD be so or not, Trump will be blamed if this goes horribly.
That may not be fair – but life is not fair.
I did find the Guardian’s plea for contributions at the end hillarious.
So the media – which bears the highest responsibility for the destruction of public discourse and misinformation today is begging for money to combat “fake news” ?
All thatr we need to reign in Fake news is for the media to quit rushing to publish poorly sourced self serving leaks. Especially given that they have been lied to by these sources for more than 3 years – and they are still publishing them.
When you are caught lying the consequences is people cease to trust you.
The consequences are WORSE when you lie about people than merely mistate facts.
Getting a fact wrong is rarely a moral error,
I can not think of an instance were false accusations are not a moral failure.
Dave “Lots of people are panicked”.
I have referenced medical updates by medical people using medical information to communicate with the news and general public.
Working at a hospital for 35 years, the policies used by infectious control departments has always been to present and prepare for the worst case scenario. This was to make sure that fellow patients and staff were protected when an infectious patient was brought in. Usually the worst case scenario never occurred. No one ever panicked because they all understood it was planning.
But put those same “instructors” into the general public and media without the same medical understanding that healthcare workers have and the understanding of the information is totally different, especially when key data is left out. Medical workers planning for worst case scenario really dont need to know that 80-85% of the cases will be asymptomatic or minor sniffles. They are planning for the 15%, were 5% of these may be critical.
The general population needs this info to avoid panic. They need information on every symptom, what to do if they have it or a family member with the understanding that there is an 85-90% chance they might feel punk for a week or so and then recover, like having a cold. Or however a minor case presents if they get this. They also need to know how its transmitted to help avoid catching it.
But just like this article included a statement that NIH budget has been cut, this is also being used to make Trump look bad. There are over 50 line items in the NIH budget available online, many having nothing to do with infectious control. As I looked at the budget, there were many line items not cut and the largest cuts was crap that has nothing to do with drugs or illness. But panic is good for changing peoples mental outlook on safety leading to support of someone else proposing excessive spending thar will provide no additional safety or positive outcomes.
I dont support the way the news is communicating, but the administration is doing a piss poor job through yesterday giving updates “Joe and Jane Public” can comprehend without deep concern and some panic.
It is likely that you understand the protocols used in the medical community to limit the spread of infectuous diseases far more than I do.
As well as those being recomended to ordinary people.
But it is not necescary to understand those in detail to model the spread of the disease.
What is necescary is to know what the normal GP population spread rate is, and what effect precautions have – even if not perfectly practiced.
Further so long as the numbers remain small – where we are now – it is possible to track almost every person that has been exposed, and monitor them.
Absolutely CDC and NIH should be telling people to wash their hands, and to avoid shaking hands and touching surfaces. And to stay home if you have a cough of cold or other symptoms.
But my point is that you can actually model the trajectory of the disease.
If there are only 80K cases in Wuhan (or even 160K assuming the Chinese are lying) AND the number of new cases is starting to level off – and that is likely True.
Given a population of 11M in Wuhan this is NOT Highly contageous, and it does NOT spread like wildfire, and that means the odds of not only the US, but the rest of the world containing this are HIGH.
The big variable is the asymptomatic people.
But asymptomatic transmission can NOT be high – or the numbers in China would still be rising exponentially.
The incentives for the media, politicians, even medical personal to exagerate the risks are high.
1). The more seriously people take this the more seriously they will take precautions, and that will decrease the transmission rate for the disease.
2). There is alot of MONEY involved here – Congress is falling all over itself trying to dole out more. However much is budgeted – the Budgets of FDA, CDC, NIH are likely to be PERMANENTLY higher.
There is a netflix movie about Bill Brinley – he was a long term NSA analyst who had developed a system that could have found 9/11 before it happened CHEAPLY and without violating 4th amendment rights. But NSA killed it because it was too cheap.
They forced Brinley into retirement because they wanted BILLIONS not millions.
Brinley had NSA Emails the DAY AFTER THE ATTACK talking about the windfall in funding that NSA expected.
Brinley is also one of the experts saying that the DNC/Wikipedia emails were more likely leaked than hacked. Brinley’s group VPS has a much better track record at technical analysis of these types of things than the US govenrment does.
3). If it bleeds it leads. It is always in the presses interests to raise anxiety.
4). If you are an “expert” and you want on TV or in print right now, the fastest way is to exagerate the risks.
You are not going to put a lid on this being overhyped.
Argh, Budgets.
When Republicans say they are cutting the budget – they are usually lying.
When Democrats say Republicans cut the budget they are usually lying.
Regardless, Budgets are not what matters.
No matter how much money the federal government throws at this right now – there are limited human and material resources and no amount of money will change that quickly.
Further money is not haw problems are solved – I know that is what nearly everyone in government thinks, but it is bullshit.
The Panic is temporary.
If this does not jump in the US exponentially people will calm down.
??? Priscilla ???
Huh?
We’re you half asleep when you wrote this?
I haven’t a clue what point you’re trying to make?
BTW- wearing a mask is useless to prevent catching a flu – but once you have it they’re helpful preventing you spreading it to others.
“??? Priscilla ???
Huh?
We’re you half asleep when you wrote this?
I haven’t a clue what point you’re trying to make?”
Not an argument in sight, but insults by the dump truck load.
“BTW- wearing a mask is useless to prevent catching a flu – but once you have it they’re helpful preventing you spreading it to others.”
Wear a mask, don’t.
“Trump is NOT the great savior he claims to be, nor is he “the looniest president ever”,
He is an average president with a slightly below average economy who has the luxury of following two POOR presidents. While both of them brought more dignity to the presidency, they were also BOTH failures.”
Rick, I agree with Dave on this. Although, I would rate Trump above average as a president, when it comes to having the political courage to actually follow through on doing those things that voters elected him to do. Just as one example, moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama all promised (not suggested, but promised) to do. As did candidate Hillary Clinton…
My own support for Trump has come from my observation that recent presidents have all seemed to accept the premise that, with the rise of global trade, the US must be “managed” in economic decline. This was a bipartisan premise, and led to the acceptance of massive trade deficits, encouragement of uncontrolled low-skilled immigration, and the loss of middle class jobs.
I’m pretty sure that the reason that Michael Bloomberg is no longer a Republican is that the Republican Party is, for the moment, all-in on Trump’s conservative populism, rather than the more moderate globalism shared by elites of both parties.
The populist coalition that elected Trump in 2016 was reacting to this bipartisan acceptance of decline, and the populist coalition that supports Bernie Sanders is the left’s reaction to the same. Populism brings with it both good and bad, but ,at least in Trump’s worldview, the American President is the leader of the US, not the workers of the world.
For what it’s worth, I think that the globalist-moderates have done far more damage to the country, and been far more divisive than the populists of either side. That may not be the case going forward, as political realignments are rapidly changing, but as of now, that’s what I think….
(I realize that Bloomy has most recently been a Democrat, but if he had thought that the Republican Party was receptive to his brand of nanny-state, crony capitalism, he would have had no problem switching back 🙂 )
Like Donnie had no trouble opportunistically switching from Dem to GOP …
“Like Donnie had no trouble opportunistically switching from Dem to GOP …”
Priscilla is not the one claiming that Trump is a unique threat to everything, you are.
Demostrating that he is not by noting Democrats acting the same is a legitimate rebutal to the claim that Trump is somehow a unique threat.
It is called argument.
Jay, I agree with you on this.
Trump looked at the political landscape, and decided that the Republican Party was ripe for a takeover. So, he launched a political campaign that would appeal to the base of a party that had been ignoring the wishes of its base for almost 30 years.
Bloomberg has also reviewed the landscape and decided that the Democrat Party is ready to be bought. The problem is that Bloomberg is out of sync with the current Democrat base, which has moved steadily left.
Seems to me that Bloomberg would have more impact as an independent candidate, along the lines of Ross Perot. But I imagine that his goal is to beat Trump, not to pursue any particular agenda, and running third party would likely be unsuccessful at actually winning in 2020. After that, Bloomberg himself would be too old.
So far, he has spent a half billion dollars, and hasn’t exactly caught fire. It helps to have an agenda, and even more so if that agenda is aligned with the party that you represent.
Excellent post.
I would note that to some extent that is what ALL candidates try to do – appeal to a sufficient portion of the party base to win the primary, and appeal to enough people to win the general.
One of the interesting things Trump did, is created a unique personal base that included blue collar democrats, That base worked for both the primary and the general.
That is unusual as it is a more centrist base.
Bloomberg is SORT of trying to do the same thing.
The NORM is that presidential candidates try to find a base at the extreme of their party during the primary and then shift to the center in the general.
That is what most democrats are doing now.
That is what most republicans did in 2016.
It is also why most candidates have an “honesty” problem – as they appear to betray their base.
Trump was able to find a diseffected group near the middle – people who were not voting mostly and strongly appeal to them.
Many of Trump’s controversial positions – on the border, on endless wars, on trade are centrist, not extreme. Some of them are wrong – but they are still centerist.
Trump does deserve extra credit for keeping his campaign promises in a way no president has ever done before.
We keep hearing from the Press, the Left, Democrats, Jay – even Rick, that Trump is “looney” and lies.
I do not give a crap if you can micro parse his tweets and find exageration or imprecision.
Does Trump keep every commitment he makes to voters ? No!
But the difference between him and pretty much all other politicians ever on that issue is beyond belief.
While I have docked him – because the economy is NOT as great has he claims.
He is NOT taking lots of flak on that – because it IS the best economy in 20 years.
And in the area of employment probably the best in my lifetime.
I think it is wrong to call Trump a populist. He has merely constructed a different permutation of conservatism to win an election. But more important – he is truthful with them.
Alot is said about the loyalty of Trump voters.
Trump has their loyalty – because he has earned it. He has done for these people what he promised.
I do not agree with you or Ron on the Trade Policies.
At the same time Trump has actually been careful to mitigate the harms.
He targets countries one at a time, and negotiates new trade deals.
That substantially mitigates the damage.
He also works hard to create a favorable climate to negotiate – meaning he negotiates from strength.
I think the real import of most of his trade deals is psychological – a message to his voters that he hears them.
It is extremely weird that this Billionaire has this connection to ordinary working people – one that I can not recall any other president ever having.
Certainly Steyer and Bloomberg do not have that connection.
“ I do not give a crap if you can micro parse his tweets and find exageration or imprecision.”
Micro parse? imprecision?
You’re suffering from severe Judgmental Dysmetria.
Again – no argument, just insults.
Find an actual example, within the past 5 years of a Trump tweet that is unambiguously:
Racist,
Homophobic.
or anti-semetic.
I personally beleive that Omar and Tlaib are anti-semetic, But I have defended their anti-israel tweets – as anti-israel is NOT proof positive of anti-semetism.
I expect that your “Proof” that Trump is Racist, Homophobic, or Anti-Semetic, or ….
Will be REAL proof – again Not micro-parsing, not imprecision.
If you are going to make a claim of moral failure about another person – the burden of proof is on you.
Again – an actual anti-semetic, homophobic or racist tweet, Not a merely offensive one, or one you disagree with.
“Find an actual example, within the past 5 years of a Trump tweet that is unambiguously:
Racist,
Homophobic.
or anti-semetic.“
Nice sneaky shifty side-step, dhlii-dave-john.
You shrunk down the W I D E charge that he’s loony and lies to three specific charges, eliminating all others.
That’s like calling him STUPID and you responding, Oh Yeah – show me an actual example within the past five years where he’s said something stupid about watermelons, pro-wrestling, or birthday cards..
To not admit/know of the scope of Trump lies and distortions over the past five years is pathological denial.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracity_of_statements_by_Donald_Trump?wprov=sfti1
“Nice sneaky shifty side-step, dhlii-dave-john.”
You have not addressed the question at all.
The “shifty side-steping is yours.
“You shrunk down the W I D E charge that he’s loony and lies to three specific charges, eliminating all others.”
I think those are the most serious claims.
I think it is pretty well given that Trump is/was a philanderer. If that matters to you – don’t vote for him. Of course that would preclude you from voting for almost all politicions.
If you wish to widen the scope, beyond those 3 – fine – but then you have to PROVE the allegation AND prove that it is important.
Do we care if Trump is lying about the size of his hands ?
“That’s like calling him STUPID and you responding, Oh Yeah – show me an actual example within the past five years where he’s said something stupid about watermelons, pro-wrestling, or birthday cards..”
The areas I noted are not watermelons, pro-wrestling and birthday cards.
Further they are not NARROW catagories – they are both BROAD catagories and IMPORTANT ones.
No one but you seems to care if Trump has said something stupid about watermelons, pro-wrestling and birthday cards. But most of us care alot if our president is more racist than the ordinary american.
“To not admit/know of the scope of Trump lies and distortions over the past five years is pathological denial.”
You are litterally channeling the red queen from Alice in Wonderland – “Sentence first, Verdict later”.
If my head is in the sand – it should be trivial for you to give relevant examples.
“https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracity_of_statements_by_Donald_Trump?wprov=sfti1”
I am about as likely to trust Wikipedia on this as on Global Warming – or as trusting you.
If you wish to use Wikipedia to find examples – be my guest.
But I want REAL CONCRETE SIGNIFICANT EXAMPLES.
I do not want spin. mind reading, naratives, or your conclusions as a substitute for facts.
Absolutely I am blind to – or more accurately immune to “your spin”.
I could care less what you think Trump thought when he said something.
I care what he actually said.
I want REAL MEANINGFUL examples – with full context – because neither you or the media are to be trusted,
The one “Not Admitting” is YOU.
You have continued this nonsense that Carter Page is a Russian Asset. That like CAGW is another idiot test. If you still buy that – your judgement is compromised, or your morality is compromised.
On issue after issue of actual significance – when Trump was accused – by you, the media, the left of “lying”, ultimately he was found correct.
There was a “witch hunt”
There was spying.
There was lying about him.
There was no collusion.
House republicans have spent the past several months pouring over impeachment testimony. Horowitz’s report and supporting information, the Mueller report, Court papers and transcripts, and they are preparing criminal referals to DOJ – LOTS of them.
For lying under oath, for lying to the FBI, for lying to the courts.
Just one example – the Mueller team told the judge in Papadopoulis’s sentencing that Papadoplis had failed to cooperate with Mueller and that had prevented them from interviewing Mifsud. Yet the FBI 302’s and much other evidence indicates the opposite.
Papadolpolis gave the FBI lots of information on Mifsud from the start. The Mueller had the FBI interview Mifsud in a US airport – after Papadolplis provided them with lots of information.
They asked innane questions and let him leave the country.
Then they never actively sought to locate him again.
I think lying to a court is a REALLY BIG DEAL – what about you ?
I think it is well past time to hold prosecutors accountable.
If Mueller and his people are going to charge Flynn, Papadoulis, Vand Der Zandt, Manafort, Stone for lying – usually not under oath. Then it is extremely appropriate to prosecute Mueller, and his team for lying to congress, the courts, …..
Priscilla: You know I’m not a never-Trumper, but lately I’ve been taken aback more and more by his pathological lying, crazy hyperbole, bullying, ignorance and other personality defects not befitting an American president.
I do give him credit for one thing that his critics decry: his impulsiveness. I think he has good instincts, and it was refreshing to see him cut the Gordian knot instead of trying to untie it when it came to decisions like moving the US embassy to Jerusalem or blasting General Soleimani to kingdom come. Obama would have dithered endlessly.
Rick, I don’t see evidence of Trump lying any more than the average politician. Many of the “lies” that he is accused of telling are either exaggerations (“the best _ in history!!”) or out of context quotes that, once put into context, are actually much closer to the truth than the claims of his enemies (” Obama tapped my wires”).
Nevertheless, he is a classic populist, in that he positions himself as an advocate for “the people,” not a representative of “the elite.” HIs positions on trade, immigration, education, and social issues are very much aligned with the people who elected him, not so much with the “ruling class” of unelected federal bureaucrats who have relentlessly tried to rid themselves of him.
He is also a populist in his style, which really seems to drive people crazy. He is unbelievably accessible to the press, to the point that he has decided that he doesn’t need a press secretary, but rather talks openly to reporters many times a week, invites them in to cabinet meetings , and allows questions at events that might normally be “too formal” for a president to turn ito a press gaggle. For the most part, the press doesn’t appreciate this at all, hates him all the more for not following the habit of last 2-3 president,s in having a press secretary transmit all information to the peasan, er, people, and peppers him with disrespectful questions and accusations framed as “questions.” He gives as good as he gets, and his answers to disrespectful reporters are often in kind. “Two wrongs don’t make a right,” is not a mantra by which Trump conducts his communication with the press.
I’ve long since accepted that I see the president differently that never-Trumpers, in that, although his flaws are often painfully apparent (he will gladly hold forth on subjects that are best left alone), he is a master of the Alinsky art of “picking a target, freezing it, personalizing it, and polarizing it”.” There is a reason that Mike Bloomberg did not stand on a box at the debates, (hint: it was a Trump tweet)… He is an entertainer more so than a politician, when it comes to his public persona, and that rubs many people the wrong way. But he has captured the undying loyalty of many who see that he is not part of the D.C. “in-crowd,” of unelected consultants and advisors who know better than the people/rabble. I guarantee you that he will be missed when he is gone, even by many of those who despise him. He’s an original, who cannot be replaced, and who has done much more good than he is credited for…..getting out of Afghanistan is his latest accomplishment that will be panned by those who slobbered over Obama’s unsuccessful attempts to do the same.
Anyway, looks like “Sleepy Joe,” will be his 2020 opponent. I honestly believe that the man is in the early stages of dementia, and that he is surrounded by people who are using him to regain the levers of power, but we shall see.
I would have preferred a real showdown with Sanders, which may well have killed the socialist movement within the Democrat Party, but it also carried the risk of Sanders winning, which would have been truly disastrous. And Bloomberg? I would prefer someone like him, without his supremely smug and superior mindset, His answer in the Fox townhall, to the 2nd amendment supporter who asked why Bloomberg had heavily armed security , but opposed it for “average people,” was basically, “because i’m a famous person, and I can afford it.”
Anyway, try as I might, I cannot hate Trump for his personal foibles, when I consider the alternatives.
A portion of Trump’s “Lies” are statements Trump never made, there are at any given time numerous “fake” Trump statements going round.
Many of his “lies” are statements that have subsequently proven True – such as the Claim of spying or wiretapping, or that Trump/Russia collusion was a witch-hunt.
Trump is with near certainty the most lied about president ever.
When is the last time that a US president was repeatedly called a russian agent – and not buy obvious nut jobs, but by respected journalists and congressmen.
Rep. Swallwell, Sen. Warner, and Rep. Schiff have claimed to have seen evidence of Trump/Russia Collusion
Sen. Coons and several other Democrats voted to impeach Trump for purportedly threatening Ukraine if Ukraine did not investigate misconduct by americans in Ukraine prior to the 2016 election, These would be the same senators who publicly threatened to cut off aide to Ukraine previously if they DID conduct investigations.
Rep. Schiff opened impeachment hearings reading a script of Trump’s transcript of his call with Zelensky that was a fabrication rife with lies.
I hope that Biden is not suffering from Dimensia – I have seen too many people deal with that, and I do not wish that on anyone.
I hope that Joe is just the same Gaffe magnet he has always been.
Regardless, he is not prepared to go against Trump.
Running on Obama’s record will not help with much of the electorate, and apparently is not going over well with many democrats.
The faux impeachment did more Damage to Biden than Trump, in particular it damaged his reputation with the blue collar voters he must wrest from Trump to win.
Biden will be less likely to lose in a landslide than Sanders, but he can not beat Trump – no matter how much of Bloombergs money is thrown into this.
“but lately I’ve been taken aback more and more by his pathological lying, crazy hyperbole, bullying, ignorance and other personality defects not befitting an American president.”
How so ? I am looking for specifics, what specifically is it that Trump has said or done that has “triggered” you ?
I am not interested in what someone else has said trump has said or done, or spin or what he has said or done.
I judge you by YOUR words and acts, – not other peoples claims about your words and acts.
Once upon a time i might have trusted the media when that reported that X said Y – no more, there has been too much lying.
And that raises the next point – how do you hold Trump accountable for words and conduct you will not hold others accountable for ?
The press has quite obviously outright lied, they have also repeatedly been manipulated by an assortment of “sources” that have lied – with what is now clearly malicious intent.
Our politicians – of all stripes lie constantly.
How many examples of egreegious -remarks from Schiff or Swallwell or Pelosi or …. do you need ?
Absolutely our political discourse has seriously degraded – but that started long before Trump came down the escalator.
To be clear – I am not asking you to “let Trump of the hook”
I ask two things:
Judge him – and everyone else by the things they have ACTUALLY said and done, not what some talking head claims. There is enormous amounts of spin, and anymore I want not just their own words, but in context – for anyone, not just Trump.
Next, judge all by the same standards.
“I do give him credit for one thing that his critics decry: his impulsiveness. I think he has good instincts”
The fundimental difference between Jack Welch and some random person on the street, is that Welch, or Gates, or Bloomberg, or Trump have a track record of making excellent decisions REPEATEDLY based on whatever information was available to them at the time.
That is actually a skill. those who have succeeded more and have done so in more areas Either are lucky beyond beleif or have the capability of assessing however much or little information is available rapidly, instinctively and accurately at a level beyond most of us.
But again I would focus on what these people DO not what they say.
Now why dont we see more info like this. Yes it is a month old and some things might have changed, but a lot has not.
https://drjessesantiano.com/who-dies-from-the-coronavirus/
Today the CDC is reporting 85 cases of the virus in the US. But at this point there’s a shortage of testing kits available to identify it. No one knows how many are really walking around with this virus.
Jay, I may be looking at the wrong media outlets. So I ask.
1. When did you find out that 85% of cases were minor, 15% more serious and about 5% critical?
2. When did you find out that many are now considered asymptomatic.
3. When did you find out that men over 65 and and having other medical conditions are in the group more likely to die.
When you have people clearing out shelves of bottled water and toilet paper at Costco Stores, seems to me there is something wrong with communication.
So the public water supply is going to be contaminated and when you get this, your diarrhea is going to be so bad you will use multi-bundles of tissue?
I don’t remember the link to where I saw those specific numbers I quoted, Ron. But here’s a link with a visual diagram you can examine, and more specific info on fatalities based on age and sex (keep reading or scrolling to see it).
Coronavirus: What are the chances of dying?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743
OK, lets step back and back up to my original comments. I know this information is available if one wants to check out the information that is on the mass media. Dave, priscilla, you and I have presented information on this subject that indicates we have taken the time to investigate.
So in reviewing my comments, I comment based on where those that pay attention to the news gets it. And they are also ones that dont check further unlike you and I, they are the ones not buying Corona beer, selling out Costco water and toilet tissue stocks and buying up mask which may cause shortages for those that need it.
And I believe that is due to the media and health experts presenting the worst case scenario, not the stats we see ourselves. That is stoking the panic buying by some.
This morning, I viewed many more doctors explaining the actual statistics and indicating the possibilities of a severe reaction being low from this virus except for one. He was talking about severe shortages of hospital beds, hospitals and doctors experiencing shortages of staff, how will people obtain care for other illnesses when doctors get sick from this and gave little info other than “we’re all gona die” doomsday info. Maybe we are all gona die from this and if so, why panic? Do what you would never think of doing, have fun and live while your alive.
And think about it, according to that doc, we dont need to argue about Trump, Sanders, The Quees, Shumer, Pence, McConnell or any other political topic.
Some of us here have an actual interest in facts and data.
But given a fast moving situation like this with really bad information quality we are not going to precisely now the facts.
The next level – which is NOT Phd level is being able to work with fuzzy data to draw accurate conclusions.
This is a pretty good site that is updated very frequently.
Lots of information – but the most important is the 3 graphs at the lower right.
The new infection rate in China is leveling off.
The number of recovered patients is increasing near exponentially.
The rate of new infections outside of china is rising – but not exponentially.
So long as it is reasonable to presume that any data quality issues are uniform – i.e. that the rate of undereporting is not itself varying exponentially, the actual error rate only matters a small amount. i.e. if there are actually double the number of infections – because there are lots of mild and unreported cases. So long as that has been true start to finish the trend lines are still valid. And future projections based on them are valid.
Aside from the trend lines – the other important factor is that this is NOT that highly contageous a disease. No matter how you jigger the numbers the number of new infections in Wuhan is decreasing. By the Time this has passed through Wuhan – which likely will be a couple of months. The total # of infections will likely no more than double those todate.
That will mean that in the epicenter of this without particularly good treatment less than 1 in ten people contracted the virus.
The numbers for Wuhan are likely the worst you will see anywhere in the world.
Wuihan is your worst case scenario.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Let me try this.
Dave, do you listen to CNN, MSNBC or Fox News/Business news?
“Let me try this.
Dave, do you listen to CNN, MSNBC or Fox News/Business news?”
Directly – NEVER. I have internet and streaming services. I have ZERO broadcast services.
I terminated those about a decade ago.
I go to youtube and browse through recomended videos.
SOMETIMES, I will watch a 4min clip of Tucker Carlson, or Rachel Maddow – especially if they are covering a topic or a person I want to here.
MOST of my “news” comes from articles provided by “news agregators” – like RealClearPolitics” – though there are alot of specific site I directly view regularly – Like Johnathonturley. Frim the agregators I CHOOSE the articles I wish to read, Mostly I am looking for discussions about IDEAS not so much events. So I am more likely to read an article on “Law & Liberty” or “Issues and Ideas” or “Tablet” or Quillette, or any of the other idea sites, than stuff by overtly political pundits.
This is not to say I NEVER watch clips from Fox, or CNN, or MSNBC or never read political articles.
I am also strongly inclined to seek out trustworthy sources of data – not necescarily from the media per say – Like thye john Hopkins info on Corona in each country
While I appreciate really good thoughtful analysis from people whose writing shows clear skill and where I can check their results, mostly I prefer to think for myself, I have almost no interest in being told what to think by Hannity or Dobbs, or Maddow, or Tapper.
Frankly I think the vast majority of talking head – left and right are complete idiots,
I unfortunately find myself watching more Hannity clips recently – and I think he is an idiot.
But I end up watching because of the guests. John Solomon is a frequent Hannity guest and I will listen to him anywhere he shows up. I would strongly recommend listening to him – or better reading what he writes – he is VERY CAREFUL about supporting conclusions with facts, and is open when there are alternative possibilities. Further he is one of few few actual “investigative” journalists today.
Biulliani is in the news over his forrays into Ukraine – but Solomon was in Ukraine 18 months before Giuliani and for all the documents Giuliani has uncovered Solomon has two or 3, and got them first.
At this point I think the odds of millions of cases worldwide is small.
I would further note that our wisest use of resources right now is to wipe out the small number of cases we have. We should NOT be trying to save resources for later.
If this reverts back to exponential spread there will not be enough doctors hospital beds etc.
We can not and should not design society to be able to cope with a global health disaster.
Would you make everyone in the world 50% poorer in order to set aside the resources to deal with a relatively rare health crisis ?
I would further note that for the vast majority of people healthcare does not change the outcome.
We do not have hospitals to store people when they are sick. We have them to make them better. We do not need to treat everyone. We need to treat the small number that treatment will make a difference.
“We can not and should not design society to be able to cope with a global health disaster”
MYYYYY POINTTTTTT exactly!
Then why communucate to them like they have been aoready thinking panic wont be created!
Another in the people somehow intuitively get things that they do not appear to get intellectually.
i have ranted over and over about “malthusian” claims – and Corona is just another.
While I do not expect it to fizzle the odds of the “worst case” scenario are very low.
People are panicked – meaning they are buying all the masks at home depot.
But they are still mostly going about their ordinary lives.
They actually understand this is not the end of the world.
And they sort of understand they are being lied to.
And finally – instinctively they understand something that the “experts” do not seem to grasp.
Cataclysmic events are extremely rare. That is a requirement for human life, for all life.
If extinction level events were common – life would not exist.
Too much spin.
It is NOT Phd, level hard.
It is what is called a minimum information problem.
Further, the details do not matter nearly so much as you would think.
It is likely that the death numbers we have are fairly accurate – it is hard to miss a body.
It is likely that the actual case #’s are inaccurate. But that is not that important because the miscount error rate is likely relatively constant, and we are dealing with something that unchecked progresses exponentially.
It does not as an example matter whether the number of cases right now is 80K or 160k.
What matters is was it miscounted in the same way yesterday as today, and is the trendline still rising steeply.
We are not accurately likely to know the mortality rate for months – because this will likely pass before we can go back and test sample populations for anti-bodies to determine the actual percent of unreported cases – and YES, we can actually test that – but not usually easily in the middle of things.
Regardless, if you think all this is Phd level hard – you should go shoot yourself – because you do not have the skills to survive today.
The tools to assess this are little different from those used in other fields all the time.
US Manufacturers strive for 6sigma today – that is 99.999% error free.
Do you think they test every single product made to determine the error rates ?
You are dealing with statistics and modeling. These are processes used throughout business – people decide what stocks to buy or sell and how to keep your IRA growing using these kind of tools. People decide what number of what kinds of cars with what options to build using these kind of tools. Amazon as an example decides well ahead of time what you are likely to want to buy in the future and orders it, and transports it and has it warehouse right by your home – just before you order it, using these kinds of tools.
No, This problem is NOT a Phd level problem.
Our most fundimental issue is it is NOT a problem government is good at – but then government is not good at most problems.
Why is this so damn (%&$ing) hard for others to understand my point? Am I that incompetent in communicating that trend lines, phd level information, 6 sigma and other statistical information is the result of my comment.
KISS!!!! KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID. they are addressing medically illiterate people. The man on the street does not understand your worst case scenario and planning. You tell them this will spread like the flu. The cases will fall into 4 categories. 85% minor, 10% serious, 5% critical, up to 1% death. Children so far not as susceptible as adults. Men over 50 make up more of the cases. Those with other serious medical conditions will make up most of the 1% deaths. Then explain the water droplets spread, hand washing, etc. Communicate # of cases and communicate how long someone may be sick. Just basic info. Close subject.
That tells the public all they need to know. Everything else is medical and emergency preparedness for worst case. That is the part creating stress and panic buying.
So do I need to revise this again to be understood?
I am sorry if I lost you with my references to six sigma, and business.
My point was supposed to be this is NOT that hard.
You and I are generally at odds regarding ordinary people.
We are both agreed that they often make mistakes, they do not get things right, ……
But I think I have a much greater trust of ordinary people than you do.
So long as ordinary people are asked to make decisions AND the real costs/benefits of those decisions are going fall on them – Ordinary people MOSTLY get it right – or atleast close enough to right.
The vast majority of people beleive in CAGW, but at the same time, it is near impossible to motivate most of them to DO anything about it. In my view – while they have been successfully indocrinated intellectually, they still somehow grasp this is NOT something important, that they must do something about.
I am using CAGW as an example – but this is true of myriads of things.
How did Trump get elected even though the majority of people had – and still have an unfavorable opinion of him and why is it he will likely be re=elected possibly in a landslide despite the fact that people STILL have an unfavorable opinion of him ?
How is it that a large number of people will agree with many of the things Jay says – when polled they will answer as jay does, but they are still going to vote for Trump ?
I am not trying to say that the massive amount of indoctrination we receive – from the left, from the media, from our schools has no effect,
But even though the left nearly dominates the conversation today, Even though lots of polls skew heavily towards left positions on myriads of issues, When people make decisions that have real costs and maybe real benefits, they do not decide as the polls would suggest ?
Because different from you – I think that ordinary people – in aggregate usually get things right – or close enough, when they have to act as opposed to when they speak.
Conversely some of the most educated people are highly prone to get it wrong. They have received the same indoctrination – but they have somehow taken it past the intellectual level into acting based on obviously bad information.
I am generalizing alot – and obviously all generalizations are wrong – so please do not respond with lots of counter examples – I know there are lots.
Nor is this argument “perfect”.
We are debating Covid-19 at the moment – and in the short term it is possible to both accidentally and deliberately push people with fear. That is a part of what you are complaining about. But the effects of fear – absent constant re-inforcement from the real world are short lived.
I would prefer that our “experts” lecturing us about Covid-19 were more careful about what they say – and yes they are leading people astray, and yes, because there is lots of fear involves – in the short run they are successful. Though I think not quite as successful as you think. We may go out and clear the shelves of all the antibacterial wipes and faces masks – even ones that are ineffective – just in case. But that does not mean we have quite accepted Armageddon is on us. I think most people over state the likely scenario, but at the same time they do not REALLY beleive the “worst case” scenarios.
“Today the CDC is reporting 85 cases of the virus in the US. But at this point there’s a shortage of testing kits available to identify it. No one knows how many are really walking around with this virus.”
Precisely ? No, it is nearly impossible to measure anything that changes dynamically precisely.
As of 11:32 3/2/2020 John’s Hopkins is reporting 86 cases, 2 deaths, and 7 recoveries in the US.
Even if the statistics are imperfect, alot can be gleaned from them.
As an example we can draw conclusions from the change in the number of new cases each day.
Absolutely we can not measure that precisely – but the measurement error was approximately the same yesterday and the day before as today.
And if we are facing a serious threat the number must at some point start rising exponentially,
Which so far it has not.
We had an initial spike when we reacted to the influx or travelers from China.
Since then new US cases have been in ones or twos strongly suggesting we only missed a very small number of people entering the country.
We do not need perfection, we merely need to isolate those who escaped and those they infected and monitor those they exposed.
Yes, there is a shortage of testing kits etc.
That is ALWAYS the case with things like this.
We can not stockpile resourcces for every possible eventuality – the space does not exist, the money does not exist, and much of this has short shelf life.
The market will solve the resource problem – but the demand will rise exponentially too.
So we have a logistics game. A few hundred extra test kits right now would be far more valuable than 100,000 in 6 months.
This is all a sort of “game” and it is not a new one. Perfect preparedness is not possible.
But the “game” nature means it can be modeled.
We can know – given the attributes of the virus itself, and the resources available – including the error rate in dealing with things, whether this will spread through the country or not.
In China we are down to 200 new cases/day, We currently have slightly more new cases per day globally than in China.
At the same time, we have 2700 people per day moving from infected to recovered.
There are still a few countries where the spread is not under control yet,
And it remains possible that we will lose control, but possible is not likely.
There are 11M people in Wuhan, and if we beleive the Chinese are lying in their data by 50%, That still means that with a much poorer healthcare system than we have about 1:200 people became infected. That means this does not actually spread that easily and it is not impossible to gain control over.
It also means that we can survive a few mistakes.
There are enough variables that I could be wrong. But it is not likely given the data we currently have.
In fact it is unlikely that unless the chinese are hiding 500K cases and 50K deaths, that I am more than marginally wrong.
What you and too many people do not grasp is that you do not need perfection to stop this.
You merely need to erect sufficient obstacles to the spread of the disease to reduce its spread from exponential to less than 1:1 ON AVERAGE and it will burn out.
I beleive the initial WHO number for Covid-19 was that each infected person typically infects 2 more people. That is NOT highly contagious – but it is exponential.
But measures that reduce the rate of spread just over 50% means the disease dies out
But the masks are useful for sticking up grocery stores…
https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Famp%2Fstory%2Fguid%2Fcbef6962-5c08-11ea-bdff-58d0565ac969&link=sfmw_tw#https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/cbef6962-5c08-11ea-bdff-58d0565ac969?mod=dist_amp_social
You do understand that this SINGLE statement completely undermines everything else in the article.
“These masks need to be prioritized for health care professionals that as part of their job are taking care of individuals.”
Masks are significantly less effective than respirators, and they are less effective at preventing the wearer from getting an infection than in preventing the wearer from spreading an infection – but they are not ineffective.
Even cheap masks prevent people from touching there face nose and mouth with their hands which significantly reduces a major vector for infection.
We are all being told by the same experts that tell us masks are ineffective – to wash our hands constantly.
You can not pass viruses from person to person solely by hand contact.
It is when your hands touch your eyes, your nose or your mouth after they have come in contact with the virus that the disease is transfered.
Why is Covid-19 UNIQUELY skyrocketing in Iran and South Korea
Iran, South Korea, and Italy combined have more Covid-19 than the entire rest of the world outside of China. Further new cases in those 3 countries are now higher than new cases in China.
We live in two worlds.
Half of us do not live in the real world.
Nice one Rick. We are on the same wavelength at the moment.
Some facts that interest me:
US population ~330,000,000
Eligible voters ~250,000,000
Number of voters for POTUS in 2016 ~139,000,000 (~55% of eligible voters)
Number of Dem primary voters in 2016 ~30,000,000 (~12% of eligible voters)
Number of Sanders primary votes 2016 ~13,000,000 (~5% of eligible voters)
Number of GOP primary voters in 2016 ~30,000,000 (~12% of eligible voters)
Number of Trump primary votes 2016 ~14,000,000 (~5.5% of eligible voters)
I assume the numbers will not change drastically this time.
Conclusions? Unlike the people here Very few Americans are deeply involved in either major party. Most people have only a slight if any interest in politics. Almost half half nearly no interest, not enough to vote. Even more extreme, the party candidates are picked by about 10% of eligible voters. If we get trump vs Sanders its about 10% who chose those candidates. Actually no matter who we get its likely to be about 10% of eligible voters who chose pair.
The number of people who have more than a superficial interest in politics, economics, or history is pretty tiny.
Nor is this something new. Our democracy has been running on fumes interest and involvement wise for a very long time.
I shall now go cast my merely symbolic vote for Biden in Vermont.
Roby: What’s sad about those stats is that the majority of non-involved citizens are most likely moderates. They might be satisfied with the status quo, or alienated by the excesses of both major parties, or simply more interested in real life than politics. So the extremists drown out their voices.
Politics is always about the extremes. It is always the extremes that seek to leverage power against others, to control others and government is about controlling others.
When government does its job well, or even badly but everything else is going well and government is not a threat to ordinary people – there will be little impetus for those in the center to vote, to become engaged in politics.
Government is an should be a small part of out lives. It should not matter who is elected dog catcher or president.
At the same time those at the extremes who are ALWAYS demanding that govenrment power be used as they wish, must generally persuade those in the center to rise from their apathy and vote.
Low voter turnout is GOOD so long and it really means the actions of government are so innocuous no one cares.
The better thengs are the more complacent the center is the more hoarse and extreme the cries from those at the extremes must be.
As I said we live in the best moment in history, That inherently means that the left and the right must be screaming about the end of the world to attract our attention.
Countries where the percent of people voting are high are extremely volatile.
If the US government actually conformed to the constitution voting would be far lower.
One of the arguments i am hearing regarding Sanders – which applies just as well to Trump, is that it is irrelevant that he is socialist, because the president does not have the power without congress and the courts to impliment Sanders agenda.
If the US government actually conformed tot he constitution we could elect Stalin and have little ill effect.
Our constitution gave us a LIMITED federal govenrment, not a monarchy or dictatorship.
Dave, ” because the president does not have the power without congress and the courts to impliment Sanders agenda.”
Really? What the hell world do you live in? I am not going to list all of Obamas agenda and policies he implemented through his ” I have a pan, diplomacy” but the president has almost unlimited powers, especially if he has his own leadership in congress. I doubt there was little that Obama did that did not have some negative impact on almost every aspect of American life during his 8 years.
There is a reason that Obama has so many 9-0 SCOTUS oppinions against him.
Regardless, Obama acted much further outside the law and constitution than Trump has,
But not nearly so far as every democratic candidate has promised thus far.
All of them are falling all over themselves pretending they can make law or rewrite the constitution through executive orders.
You can not. It is highly unlikely that SCOTUS will uphold an EO that infringes on the rights of citizens. EO’s are directions to those in government regarding the implimentation of EXISTING law, and constitutional powers.
Dave “You can not. It is highly unlikely that SCOTUS will uphold an EO that infringes on the rights of citizens. ”
Direct or indirect infringement?
The important qualifier is “highly unlikely” – SCOTUS upheld Koramatsu – but that was during WWII. Even Scalia said FDR’s EO was crystal clear unconstitutional. But no SCOTUS ever is like to overturn an EO like that during a war like WWII.
Absent a world War SCOTUS is unlikely to uphold an EO infringing on the 2A as an example.
Regardless EO’s have to be written as directives to the executive branch as to how to impliment existing laws.
If a democrat is elected they will be obligated to match Trump’s economy and jobs performance. If they do not democrats generally will be obliterated in 2022.
Democrats can not impliment their agenda without economic harm.
Obama got some latitude – because he was following a recession that he could not be blamed for, and because the argument that this was the “new normal” was difficult to refute.
But we are post Obama, trump has refuted it.
Even Obama lost the house in 2010 because voters were not happy, and did not buy alot of the “new normal” nonsense.
In 2021 should democrats control all or part of government the expectations will be high.
Further not only must they preserve the economy – but THEIR supporters will expect that they – just as Trump did, will deliver on their campaign promises.
There is no progressive magic wand.
As imperfect as some are – Trump’s promises and policies were an improvement over Obama;s and the economy has responded. Democrats promises and polices are a drag on the economy. They can not do both, and they can not remain in power long unless they do.
Regarding the gang of four and their need to split off yet another victims acronym…
I accidentally acquired a Doris Day CD last week, and I love it! What a great voice she had, a huge talent. She was called “wholesome” and was as white as white can be (her favorite singer and major influence was however, Ella Fitzgerald, and it shows in her music) I can only imagine the eyes rolling by all of my musician friends over my life, not one of whom I am sure would listen to (or at least admit to it) Doris Day. But she had a great voice, sang great big band music, played with heavyweight musicians, what is not to like? But she is doomed to underappreciation. so “wholesome” and though no ones says it explicitly she reflects the whitest side of jazz, along with bands like Glen Miller and Tommy Dorsey. Is this white issue with Doris Day just an issue in my own mind and no one else’s? Probably. But, I have a huge set of black musicians as heros, no one ever puts them in the “wholesome” box as a sort of lightweight.
Damn it, lily white big band music was every bit as good as the black big band music (and visa versa). Why should Doris Day be a sort of guilty pleasure for me?
I am damn happy that black musicians came into their own in a segregated era and that white listeners loved them and that that helped to end the terrible injustice. And its of course appalling what black entertainers (and simply blacks) had to endure in that era. But its no fault of white entertainers, people like Bing Cosby, Frank Sinatra, Doris Day, Benny Goodman. Many of them did stick their necks out actually to support black entertainers. Its a damn shame that we need to even see that as bravery, but in that era, it took some moxie to go against the culture.
I guess this is a bit like my reaction to the sea of identical (all them white military people and engineers look alike!) faces at NASA in Apollo 11. It was a segregated world and it was the white man’s world with huge barriers and much suffering and injustice for black Americans, I understand completely why black americans can still feel like their own separate group (or not, depending on the individual). What I am trying to say, in spite of that context I am still equally in awe of my white heros, the astronauts, the musicians from that period as I am of my black heros.
Imagine making those nutty progressive ladies, AOC and company, listen to a few hours of Doris Day. They would likely lose consciousness.
To be clear, I still think the proud boys are scum, if anyone has doubts, along with any group on the spectrum from white chauvinism to flat out white supremacy. My “white pride” moment does not go that far.
What matters is why you think the proud boys are scum.
I am neither looking to defend them nor attack them.
I am merely asking that you judge them based on there actions and the values that they choose. not based on some others decision to identify them as racist.
I would also suggest some nuance in your judgement – not merely of the proud boys – but of everyone. There is nearly always much more to people than binary judgements of evil, or good.
“A man is not the worst thing they have ever done”
Brian Stevens
Stevens offered that in the context of our criminal justice system. Stevens is the founder of the Equal Justice Inititive.
EJI projects death penatly defense and appeals. Often those Stevens has defended have done horrible things.
Stevens is noting that even those how have committed brutal murders are more than the crimes they have committed.
The proud boys are not heros. I would suggest that you might also consider the possibility that they are not scum either.
One of the great successes of the progressive left is the extent to which it has made everything binary.
“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”
Alinsky
I find it amazing that so many on the left are unable to see that they hate Trump because he successfully does the same things they do.
I have always been a big fan of big band music and of Doris Day.
Politics isn’t everything. It shouldn’t even be a big thing, at least to the average person, but, right now, it seems to be.
Que sera, sera…
Big band music is to music as sreak is to beef.
Roby (and Priscilla and Ron): No need to feel guilty over enjoying “white” music and culture. Just the fact that we have to think of it as “white music” or “white culture” and question its value means that the campus leucophobes (there’s a meaty new sociological term for you) have been doing their job all too well.
As for Doris Day, so many of her recordings (especially the earlier ones) exude a smoking sexuality that seems to contradict her later girl-next-door image. As Oscar Levant once observed, “I knew Doris Day before she was a virgin.” John Updike sang her praises, too. (I think he really had the hots for her, and why not?) I see no conflict in Doris Day’s combination of sexuality and decency; as far as I’m concerned, that’s the ideal.
And yes, I’m a fan of vintage popular music — not just the big bands, but the earlier orchestras and personalities, crooners both male and female, and the best pre-WW2 jazz and blues. I simply can’t relate to the vast majority of music produced after about 1980. So my iPhone’s playlist is like a time machine. I even have some pre-1900 recordings.
Yes, TNM is a big band enclave! Youza. Yes Doris Day was hot. In vocal talent she compares well with some of the female singers in Benny Goodman’s band, for example Peggy Lee. No one ever tried to call Peggy Lee Wholesome! I would have gladly snuggled with either of them!
Lets rebrand TNM into the New Big Band Lovers! Or the new old peoples music site, or something.
It is by the way my thesis that Radio created (or if not created, greatly fueled the fires of) Jazz, while TV created Rock and Roll By which I mean specifically rock and roll, that is 50s music, Chuck Berry, Bill Haley et al. and killed the Big Band era.
What a feast it must have been to be alive in the 30s and 40s music wise.
The cost of running a premier Big Band today would be hard to front. I love that music. In fact, part of my fitness routine is drumming. I blast Benny Goodman over my PA system in my music room and do my best Gene Krupa imitation on my drum kit. Its is fantastic exercise, heart rate in the 130s, better than running.
Benny Goodman Sing sing sing. Genius. Even my wife can’t do this.
Bout sums up my mood this morning BTW.
Roby – I believe those dancers are Whyte’s Lindy Hoppers (also known as Whyte’s Maniacs), from the 1941 movie Hellzapoppin’. Here’s a link to the actual music they danced to:
Thanks Jay!
Yep, I have seen hellzapoppin. Yep, they cleverly matched the dancers to different music. There is actually a lot of similar mixing and matching going on online between dance and music with various swing dancers. Still its a great video, wakes a person right up.
What I did not know before you told me Jay was the name of the group. I looked them up, an incredible history!
https://atlanticlindyhopper.wordpress.com/tag/whytes-hopping-maniacs/
In the 60’s we did not damn accomplished white’s because accomplished blacks were discriminated against.
One of the disctinctions between liberalism and progressivism is that liberalism is that Liberalism seeks to en d discrimination based on things like the color of one’s skin and the judge people based on the attributes they control – their talents, their accomplishments,
While progressivism intellectually derives from marxism. It seeks to highly our differences and to divide us into oppressed and oppressors based on immutable characteristics.
If you are white you are the oppressor, if you are straight you are the oppressor, if you are male you are the oppressor.
Unlike Martin Luther King, Progressiveness demands that we be judged on our gender, our skin color, our sex.
To the progressive left a person is a hero – because they are a member of a historically oppressed minority – they need not personally have ever been oppressed, and a person is evil if they are not members of any historically opressed groups.
Racism does not consist in discriminating against people based on race, it is defined by membership in a race.
Dave “You and I are generally at odds regarding ordinary people.
We are both agreed that they often make mistakes, they do not get things right, ……
But I think I have a much greater trust of ordinary people than you do.”
So Corona beer sales drop because ……..?
Now this……..
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-sad-first-chinatowns-now-las-koreatown-asianphobia-crashes-food-sales-amid-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR37ZT95z9Dw58URtj1BfzIioaBeBUoiMrcjLGEhHnWKT0gQmpx4CHanhvI
As these things continue to crop up. Peoples livelihood is now being impacted. And of course Trumps to blame.
The educational information coming out on cases, severity, how it is spread, etc started too little and too late for communities like this. Planting all the negative infectious disease information into the main stream population that has no early idea how to process the info leads to outcomes like this. Information has to be detailed to the level of comprehension your audience is able to understand.
So yes, my trust of mainstream America’s ability to process detailed technical data without over reacting is low.
Good grief, auto check sucks sometimes. NOT ” not early idea” Idiot device changed it from earthly idea”
I am not claiming that all ordinary people always get it right.
I would note corona beer sales have dropped they have not completely disappeared – more people are still drinking corona, than have chosen not to.
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.diVhH-vkIWKTk8hod9-D1wHaCt%26pid%3DApi&f=1
I do not think this is about grasping detailed technical data.
A simple graph of the new Corona cases – is the most important peice of information to me.
The raw data need not even be accurate – so long as the error – whether accidental or deliberate is not inversely exponential.
Frankly, the “educators” for various reasons are motivated to increase false anxiety not decrease it.
Well, DAMMMNNN! Oh me of little faith! My Biden vote was not so purely symbolic! Moderates woke up! Youza!
See that?
I usually dont pay attention to state races from other states, but occasionally the headlines catch my eye. Last night Alabama GOP voters returned to some normalcy. Roy Moore was eliminated from the GOP senate race while Tommy Tuberville and Jeff Sessions will have a run off. And Tuberville led the race even without getting a majority. Either one of these has a very good chance of turning that seat back to GOP offsetting slightly the Trump backlash in states like N.C.
That Mark Robinson guy in NC is getting a lot of attention up here ~ was his win a big upset, Ron?
Also, on the topic of the day…one of my sons is a professional swim coach ~his team travels to Charlotte every year, at the end of March, for a big invitational meet, attended by swimmers from many states, mostly teams east of the Mississippi.
He was tellling me yesterday, that some his team parents are emailing and calling him wondering if the meet is still on, because it’s “so dangerous” to have so many people at a sports event, and people could get infected with coronavirus!
Apparently some people are under the impression that this is like the medievil bubonic plague and will wipe out much of the population. I can understand that, if someone has COPD, or is in chemotherapy, they would want to stay away from large crowds where they might pick up some kind of respiratory virus.
Have there even been any confirmed cases yet, in NC?
Well to tell you the truth, I had not heard about Mark Robinson until Wednesday. He is not a politician, has little money compared to politicians and made his mark as a black conservative blaming shooters for deaths and not the guns at a city council meeting.
https://www.greensboro.com/news/local_news/political-newcomer-mark-robinson-of-greensboro-wins-gop-nomination-for/article_760728a2-a02a-5afe-81de-aebc48045528.html
There is talk about all large gatherings being closed or cancelled. March Madness might be played before empty gyms. NCAA to make decision upcoming.
I believe one case confirmed in Raleigh. Male who visited relative in nursing home in Washington around Feb 20th. Confirmed about a week ago. I believe he was “home isolated” and not hospitalized. No reports on anyone else and no reports on who is quarantined that he had contact with.
There is no global “plague” that this is in anyway comparable to.
This is not even close to comparable to the 1918 Flu.
If this actually went out of control globally – which unlikely – lots of people would die – but lots of people die from the flu each year too.
I believe linked a slate article indicating that the mortality is likely between 3-8 times less than reported – and this overestate of mortality is fairly common that 6 months from now the final decision is likely that the mortality rate is equivalent to a bad flu season.
No one wants anyone to die. But we all die eventually’
And apparently for people under 70 this is not much of a threat but for those over 70 it is a really big deal – but so is the flu.
JHU is listing one in Raliegh
JHU?
John Hopkins University.
Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
My trust in people continues to decline😥
A new modern day low. Politicians threatening SCOTUS justices. I know Trump calls others names, he asked justices to recuse themselves he has told people he has a carry permit and will shoot anyone trying to harm him (10/3/2015 before election), he has said he would like to lunch a reporter in the face, but I dont ever remember him threatening another public figure like this.
“You’re gonna pay” can be used by courts as a threat. Shumer crossed over the line big time. I can even accept him yelling this at “snake eyes” McConnell, but SCOTUS is way out of bounds!
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/you-will-pay-the-price-schumer-threatens-kavanaugh-and-gorsuch-as-supreme-court-hears-abortion-case
This was waaaaay over the line.
Schumer should, at minimum, step down from his leadership position, and be censured for his threat.
Only a Democrat could get away with this, because the biased media will cover it up, or try and gaslight people into believing that this is the same as Trump saying that Ginsburg and Sotomayor should recuse from certain cases, based on their overtly political public statements.
The problem is that Schumer clearly called out two SCOTUS justices, by name, and said that, if they did not vote the way that the Dems want, they would “pay the price, and never know what hit them.” That is clearly an overt threat.
Do I think that Schumer himself will try and attack or kill Gorsuch and Kavanaugh? Of course not. Although it clearly shows that Schumer, like Pelosi, no longer believes in co-equal branches and separation of powers. To them, Congress is the source of all power in the federal government ~ POTUS and SCOTUS better toe the line.
He’s just giving the sign to the Antifa types who can carry it out.
Correct – Schumer shouldn’t have called out Twitter SCOTUS judges by name; but it’s OK for Dumb Donnie to call out Sotomayor and Ginsberg by name and tell them they have to recuse themselves from any cases involving his presidency. Right?
And yes, Schumer should have tempered his threat in the proper legal context: they’ll pay the price and not know what hit them with impeachment charges. After the 2020 elections if the Dems flip the Senate, that will be a just remedy for the GOP Merrick Garland swindle. Neil Gorsuch goes, Clarence Thomas goes (with his tin-hat crazed conspiracy nut wife), Garland gets appointed, and Biden fulfill his campaign promise to appoint a black female justice as well when Ginsberg retires after Election Day.
So, you think that threatening justices is ok, as long as the threat is that of impeachment, not bodily harm or death (nnot clear in Schumer’s threat, but he sure got that rabid crowd booing SCOTUS, and cheering for the demise of any justice that crosses the left.)
Trump’s comment was in response to blatant political statements made by Ginsburg and Sotomayor, and was not remotely a threat, but an opinion. Was it inappropriate for him to respond? Yes, I think it’s possible to make a case for that.
But equating the two comments is, as you are fond of charging against others, “whataboutism,” i.e. defending the indefensible by claiming that both sides do it.
Only one side has done it.
Oh chill out.
Schumer retracted his comment…
But, again, I agree bashing judges, demeaning and attacking them individually, is corrosive to an independent judiciary. As is demeaning individuals and undermining the important institutions they work for, as Dumb Donnie’s done to the CIA, the FBI, the State Department. etc. Let’s expand that list to include Dumb Donnie’s interference and threats against people who work at the EPA, OSHA, and of course the NIA. Your demented hero’s incoherent inconsistent and just plain stupid remarks have already more negatively effected the lives of Americans than Schumer’s improper snit about the two judges.
And by the way, Priscilla, where was your righteous indignation on display when Trump attacked the judge in the Roger Stone case?
“Schumer retracted his comment…”
A wise move,
I would also note that he also clearly LIED about the comment in his retraction claiming it was a threat to punish the GOP at the ballot box. Not Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
Go listen to the video – it was clearly not that and had it been he would not have had to retract the statement.
Regardless, he said something that was incredibly close to the only speach that is not constitutionally protected in the US – a “true threat”. He was dancing incredibly close to incitement to riot – watch the video, this is not a remark fromt he well of the senate, this was infront of an angry mob with his intended victims not far away.
“But, again, I agree bashing judges, demeaning and attacking them individually, is corrosive to an independent judiciary.”
Words matter – you are constantly substituting nebulous words for specific words.
Threatening judges is VERY WRONG.
Asking judges to recuse is not, and in many instance may be morally required.
“As is demeaning individuals and undermining the important institutions they work for, as Dumb Donnie’s done to the CIA, the FBI, the State Department. etc. Let’s expand that list to include Dumb Donnie’s interference and threats against people who work at the EPA, OSHA, and of course the NIA.”
Neither individuals nor institutions are entitled to our respect, they are obligated to earn it.
I have ZERO problem with Bashing the CIA, FBI, State, DoD ……
Plenty of presidents have done it – notably Eisenhower and Truman.
Again words matter. Actual lying – about the CIA, FBI, DoD, … or BY the same agencies is wrong. Thus far Trump has been CORRECT about those agencies and it is those agencies that have LIED
The FISA court has just barred everyone at DOD or FBI who had any involvement in the Carter Page warrants from participating in the FISA process.
Trump should have responded to the Horrowitz report by ordering the AG to determine every person who participated in, was aware of or should have been aware of the misconduct that Horrowitz reported, and required every signle one of those to be re-assiggned to duties completely outside the entire Trump/Russia investigation and prosecutions – that would mean the entire Crossfire Hurricane team and nearly all of Muellers team.
What unbeleiveable hypocracy – you bash and demean the president, and various other office holders all the time.
In jay world – bashing and demeaning is virtuous – unless committed by republicans, then and only then it is criminal.
“And by the way, Priscilla, where was your righteous indignation on display when Trump attacked the judge in the Roger Stone case?”
Again more word mangling.
Did Trump THREATEN the Judge ?
It is quite clear to pretty much everyone that the Stone Trial was a fiasco.
Guess what the JUDGE is responsible for preventing that.
She failed – this is not the 1984’s Oceania where criticism of failure within government is criminal.
Jackson FAILED. Obviously, and ANYONE’s criticism of her is justified.
But to my knowledge NO ONE threatened her.
YOU say Schumer’s remarks would have been OK if he merely threatend to Impeach Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
No one has threatened to impeach jackson. Yet you seem to think there is an equivalence between legitimate criticism and overt threats.
Alas, alas, for you
Hypocrites that you are
Sure that the kingdom of Heaven awaits you
You will not venture half so far
There is nothing wrong with bashing government or those in it.
There is nothing wrong with demeaning those in govenrment or government institutions.
Though you should expect to be judged on the accuracy of your criticism.
If you call someone else a liar – you had better be right.
If you call them a russian asset – you had better be right
If you say they have colluded with Russia – you had better be right.
Trump has been highly critical of a long list of people.
Comey, McCabe as an example – those criticisms have proven very well justified.
What about you ? Which of your attacks, insults, slurrs has proven true ?
There is NO EQUIVALENCE HEAR
You do not threaten a judge with ANY retaliation to that judge.
A request is not a threat.
The threat was not political, it was individual and personal.
While Schumer did not specifiy WHAT the consequence for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh would be – it is clear that it was Gorsuch and Kavanaugh that were going to pay.
Schumers remarks were uncomfortably close to “a call to action”, incitement to violence.
Watch the video. He was speaking in front of an angry mob, already banging on the doors, and the justices were in session only yards away beyond the door.
Schumers remarks were extremely close to the only speach that is actually criminal in the US.
Priscilla, I find it interesting that Jay responded to you concerning Shumer using Trumps recusal call while I commented, addressed the difference between calling for two justices to recuse themselves to a threat on two standing on SCOTUS steps and he was silent.
But that is politics today. There is no way most will cross a red/blue line and agree with the other side.
There is no equivalence.
Myriads of people have asked even demanded Judges and Supreme Court Justices recuse themselves. Democrats have asked Thomas to Recuse himself constantly, and on rare occasions he has done so.
Ginsberg and Sotomayor were not going to recuse themselves. The Ginsberg case for Recusal is quite strong as she has made overt political remarks about Trump and his policies. Sotomayor merely criticized the rest of the court for their decision – something Many justices – Scalia and Thomas in particular, but even going back to Holmes and Brandeis have done before.
I beleive Obama asked judges to recuse themselves. You can agree or disagree, but there is nothing inherently improper about doing so.
Schumer made a specific threat of retribution against two specific justices – that is WAY WAY over the line. Technically that is impeachable.
He did so in the midst of an angry crowd already engaged in violence, with the Supreme Court in session and the justices little more than a dozen yards away.
There is a credible case his remarks were “incitement to violence”.
While personally I think that is a reach – it would be fully consistent with the left’s position on speach. Regardless, Schumers remarks were an explicit “call to action” – and that is quite a bit further than anything Trump has ever done.
There is not even close to parity here.
This would have barely merited a mention in the news, if Schumer had demanded they recuse themselves. It would barely have made the news if Schumer had actually does as he later falsely claimed to have done and threatened retribution against the GOP at the ballot box if the Justices did not vote as he demanded.
But Schumer was way out of line. This is not comparable to anything Trump has ever done.
The fact that you think it is, is disturbing.
Do you think insulting someone is the same as threatening them ? Or assaulting them ?
If you are going to try to make a comparison – compare things that are equal.
Threatening the justices with impeachment charges would have been almost as inappropriate.
The only legitimate Threat Schumer could have made is to Republicans at the ballot box.
Any threat of retaliation against a judge in order to influence a decision is wrong, it is very close to a crime.
There is no “Garland Swindle”
McConnell’s actions were overtly political – they were also a huge gamble, Hillary was likely to be elected and her nominee would be much less appealing to the GOP than Garland.
I highly doubt that Democrats are flipping the Senate.
Democrats have to flip 3 seats if they beat Trump and 4 if they do not
And in reality that is 4 and 5 because they are going to lose Alabama with near absolute certainty.
Regardless, even the public threat to impeach supreme court justices because you do not like their decisions, is a step beyond even the ukraine nonsense “faux impeachment”.
You complain about the bitterness of politics – and then threaten to make government even more bitter.
Please read the declaration of independence.
When government – even majoritarian democratic government fails to protect the rights of individuals it is the right of the people – even a minority of the people to take up arms against it.
Contra the nonsense from the left – todate political violence remains lopsidedly leftist.
But if you continue as you are, that will not remain forever.
Impeaching supreme court justices for political reasons is pretty much the definition of illegitimate government, as well as government that can not be remedied by constitutional means.
Jay, I don’t think that you and I are having the same debate, here.
I am not being righteously indignant. I am condemning the second most powerful leader in the Senate, for standing on the steps of the Supreme Court, in front of an angry crowd, and issuing a threat to two specific justices, whom he called out by name. That’s bad enough.
Making it worse, is the fact that his threat was intended to influence the way that the two justices would vote on a case that was ongoing as he spoke. What he did was obstruction of justice in the true sense, but it was also an overt threat by a leader of one branch of government, against members of another co-equal branch. And, whether he meant it or not, it implied physical violence….”you’ll never know what hit you.”
Schumer did not retract, but I wouldn’t have expected him to do so. He meant what he said…watch the video, he was reading it from his notes.
It’s useless for us to continue discussing anything, Priscilla.
It’s like this wine glass-face illusion. You perceive what’s happening one way; me another.
Schumer’s improper outburst is the inevitable flip-side of nastiness initiated and expanded by President Stupid. I warned you four years ago when Trump started campaigning he was dangerously lowering the standards of public/political discourse. You and other Trump apologists said he would temper his remarks if elected as president; but of course he’s become hideously worse. If you could appraise him objectively (you can’t) you’d recognize the severe damage he’s done to civility in society, and continues to do.
How has he become “worse,” Jay? You throw things out there and have zero evidence for them. I remember Trump saying some pretty rough things about John McCain, he foolishly picked a fight with the grandstanding Gold Star couple who spoke out against him at the DNC Convention, and some other things that turned many people off. But how is he worse?
Your side has given up on civility, and I think that comes from the anger and frustration that has come from not being able to overthrow a president that you hate. The answer is to vote him out.
Every day, I’m shocked and amazed at the hideous things that are said about the man. Not criticisms of his policies, mind you…those are fair game. Just incredibly false and nasty personal insults, routinely lobbed at another human being, who has succeeded in spite of the odds against him.
If civility is damaged, it’s not because of anything that Trump did. It’s because, for whatever reason, there is a mass hysteria and delusion about the guy, and liberals have been treating him like he’s the devil incarnate, both an evil genius and an incompetent boob. He’s just a man, who won an election, and is enacting the agenda that he promised he would.
Democrats would be so much better off, if they just chilled the hell out, and ran against Trump’s agenda. Of course, his personality is not off limits, but it shouldn’t be front and center. Making it about hate has turned a lot of people off, and led to the feeling that the Democrats do nothing but “cry wolf”.
Nominating a man who is exhibiting signs of early senility, and then saying, as I have now heard, that his cognitive decline is off limits for debate, is not going to cut it.
For the life of me, I cannot fathom why the Dems have sh*tcanned Tulsi Gabbard, a charismatic, leftwing, anti-war, non-white woman, who is articulate and attractive. She would give Trump a run for his money.
If the incivility were limited to attacks on Trump that would be one thing.
If you run for president you are obligated to have thick skin, you are going to be attacked.
I do not have much sympathy for Trump – he is president of the united states.
He should expect to be attacked and even lied about.
But that is not where this ends – whether it is Jay or the left
EVERYONE that disagrees with them on ANYTHING is a facist, nazi, totalitarian. racist, sexist, homophobe, hateful, hating hater, and a russian agent.
Left wingnuts are calling actual hollocaust survivors Nazis, as well as their children and relatives. All this is batshit crazy, and this is close to unique to the left.
Jay, if the goal is persuasion – any conversation with you is useless.
Everyone knows that.
You are completely predictable.
Is there a person here who expected that you would condemn Schumer ? Anyone who thinks you would not find a way of making this about Trump ?
Absolutely everything you say returns to trump. Every oppinion on everything is driven by Trump. Schumer is correct – because Trump.
Grow up.
We are past the days of huntley brinkley – if non-contentious political debate ever existed.
We are past the point at which public discourse is polite.
You can pretend if you wish that the shift towards ever more bitter public discourse was not driven by the left, but you can not pretend that the shift happened, and if you think it started When Trump came down the escallator you are blind to reality.
Does Trump speak in ways that no president would have dared 40 years ago ?
Absolutely. So does everyone in politics. Frankly so does everyone in life.
There is no parity between Schumers remarks and actions – which came incredibly close to inciting mob violence against specific people, and Trump saying that a supreme court justice who has spoken politically and publicly on an issue before her, should recuse herself.
There are remarks I would prefer Trump had not made. The critique of Sotomayor’s remarks though acceptable – i.e. morally permissiable, was factually wrong. But the critique of Ginsberg was both moral and factual. Regardless both were suggests, requests.
If you feel they were made impolitely – fine.
Schumer made a threat. That is an a completely different league.
Threats are a promise of force. Requests are not.
Threats are rarely acceptable, because the use of force is rarely justified.
Requests are always acceptable, even if wrong or stupid.
But you can not see that.
There is not a single trait of Trump’s that you are offended by that does not significantly predate Trump.
We here nothing from you about the conduct you berate Trump for – not when done constantly by others in the past, not when done by others today.
You are clearly the one in an alternate reality.
So did it turn out that there was no Trump russia collusion – because Trump bought off Mueller and Horrowitz ?
Is the Mueller report “fake” ? The Horowitz report ?
Is FBI/DOJ lying to courts acceptable to you ?
On issue after issue over the past 4 years you have expounded claims that proved false. You have made moral accusations that have proved false.
Why should anyone beleive you have an accurate perception of reality ?
“Schumer’s improper outburst is the inevitable flip-side of nastiness initiated and expanded by President Stupid.”
You can not justify potentially criminal conduct, by comparing it to boorish comments of others.
“I warned you four years ago when Trump started campaigning he was dangerously lowering the standards of public/political discourse.”
Where were you when those on the left were doing the same ?
Every Republican president since Nixon has been called a Nazi. Pretty much every republican politician, pretty much every republican. In fact now pretty much anyone not sufficiently leftist – and that includes most of the left, is a nazi, racist, homophobe, transphobe, hateful hating hater. I have NEVER heard you complain.
You are defending the people who are calling a long list of others – many democrats – Russia Agents.
If you have actual instances of Trump overtly and unjustifiably threatening others, I will condemn those.
But all speach that you do not like is not equal. Just about the only speach that is universally agreed as unacceptable – even criminal, is some threats, and Schumer danced incredibly close to the criminal.
“You and other Trump apologists said he would temper his remarks if elected as president; but of course he’s become hideously worse.”
“If you could appraise him objectively”
That is pretty Trivial, and it is YOU that can not manage it.
We can each quibble about Trump’s rhetoric.
But in the end, it is what a president DOES, not what they say.
Even if you actually disagree with Trump on policies – you still can not credibly claim he is significantly different from the past.
FDR locked up 100K US citizens – that pales in comparison to anything Trump has done on the border.
Family separation started with Obama.
The nations Trump restricted Travel from – Started with Obama.
Trump’s positions on Trade are not much different than those of most US predidents throughout history.
Trump’s “dergulation” at worst gets us back to 2008 levels of regulation – not 1800.
On policy after policy – you can disagree but you can not credibly claim Trump is into unknown teritory. ‘
And then we have results.
We have not gotten into any new conflicts so far. That has not happened since Ford,
The economy may not be great – but it is better than it has been for 20 years.
Thus far no interns have been felating in the oval office.
So in the end all you have is fuming and foaming over Trump’s rhetorical jousting, and your position that is “unpresidential” – even if I accept that – Trump’s rhetoric is still not as offensive as those that attack him.
You say he “lies” – has he made false accusations of criminal conduct ?
Just about every talking head in the media as well as the entire upper echelon of the democratic party has done just that.
At what point do you hold others to the same standard you impose on Trump ?
In my perfect world Trump would not be president.
But neither would Clinton, Sanders, the assortment of dwarves who ran in the Democratic primary, probably none of the 2016 republican contenders either.
You keep telling me that being moderate means compromising on everything.
Well Trump is not what I want,
But I have no problem tolerating his flaws, rather than living with the alternatives.
You are absolutely incensed over essentially one flaw – Trump’s rhetoric – which even if it is as egregious as you claim still as mitigated by his success elsewhere.
I am happy with most – though not all of his policies.
But much more importantly – though we can debate how those policies have turned into the current state of the country overall, there can be no debate that the country is better than under Obama, and Bush in innumerable ways.
I would like far better still, but that is NOT coming from Biden or Sanders or the rest of the dwarves.
There is whether you like it or not a relationship between policy and prosperity, and not only is Trump increasing prosperity – but most of Trump’s gains are AT THE BOTTOM.
to those who need it most.
Objectively – YOU can not see the world objectively.
It is likely the Taliban deal is a bad deal, and they will not keep it.
Trump has already launch some airstrikes.
It is not certain the US will go through with it.
Regardless, it is time to go. It will not be better in the future.
We have tried for 18 years under 3 presidents and we have failed.
We have spent $1T on afghanistan alone and have nothing to show for it.
It is well past time to leave – regardless of the mess.
Covid-19 is likely an order of magnitude LESS harmful than stated.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
One should wonder what impact this “panic” will have on total deaths for the year when those from flu and Covid-19 are added together. Will safety concerns used by people due to the virus also reduce flu cases, thus reducing flu deaths?
All that hand washing might help reduced normal flue contagion a little, but the combined number of virus illnesses with coronavirus added in is sure to significantly raise the numbers.
“All that hand washing might help reduced normal flue contagion a little, but the combined number of virus illnesses with coronavirus added in is sure to significantly raise the numbers.”
The slate article I linked says almost the opposite.
It essentially says that most of the Covid-19 victims were coing to die, from the flu, colds, pnuemonia, cancer, heart disease, … and they were going to do so within the year regardless.
Covid-19 deaths are heavily among those who are already very unhealthy and only one cold away from dying. These were people who were going to get sick and die from something no matter what.
I do not know how accurate that Slate article is – but we DO KNOW that a high portion of Covid-19 deaths are to very vulnerable people. That DOES mean that a spike in Covid-19 deaths need not be a spike in total deaths.
Just to be clear – I am not saying the Slate article is correct.
We do not know, and probably will not know until a year after this passes.
One of the factors in calculating the mortality rate that has NOT been addressed is that when the final determination of the mortality rate of Covid-19 is worked out – it will NOT be every person would died and was infected with Covid-19. But every person who died who would not have died otherwise. And enormous portion of the Covid-19 deaths are to people who not merely were old and frail, but who were actually dying before they caught Covid-19
More ‘likely’ outcome predictions
“ In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-toll-global-gdp-loss-australian-national-university-study-2020-3
If you wish to bet on that – I will be happy to take the bet that the death toll will Not be or even close 15M.
The economic impact is more difficult to assess, panic alone could case 2.4T in temporary economic disruption.
Dave, Not on economic data since that will take months before final data finalized, but I want to bet on something else.
I win, you limit each comment to no more than 500 words each and no more than 5 per day.
You win, no limit as like now, but I agree to read each and every one completely.
I hold that this current virus is Trumps black swan event. He loses to Biden.
( Not part of the bet, dems hold house, lose senate)
Now a qualifying event. Only if Biden does not make so many mental gaffes, like his sister being his wife, not knowing what state he is in, something big. Not some insignificant issue like who is president of “little inner mangolia” or some other insignificant country.
Evaluating the outcome of the bet is too complex.
Biden is going to gaffe from now to november. Does anyone doubt that – he is getting ever worse. I beleive he is toast at this point – even if he never makes another gaffe.
But that is not a bet I can make because he will make a new gaffe every day.
So how do I prove what would have happened if Biden did not do as he certainly will ?
I have no doubt Trump, is going to be attacked regarding Coronavirus.
I also have no doubt that no matter what happens with Corona that Trump will be attacked and there will be plenty of voices claiming he could have done more.
We just authorized spending 8.3B – for what ? I have no doubt that money will ultimately get spent. But no amount of money will alter the trajectory of Covid-19 right now.
The resources that exist today are all that exist today and it will take atleast a month to alter the level of resources. While Covid-19 will not be gone by then, the trajectory will be set by then.
Anyway, if you want to bet, Bet on something actually measurable.
BTW – what do I get when I win ?
Specifically back to Covid-19.
So long as the US is fighting new infections coming from air travel OR from the spread by those already infected in the country, I do not expect this to go “out of control”.
It may take several months to eradicate, and the total number of infections might reach 1000, or even a bit more, and the deaths may reach 100 or a few more.
But there is not going to be widespread out of control Covid-19 unless it explodes in mexico,
After which all bets are off.
At the same time if the US has a real epidemic because Covid-19 floods the country from accross the southern Border – Trump wins in a landslide.
I would further note that all the above is likely even if an effective antiviral is not found, and a vaccine is not developed.
If an effective antiviral is found (and I beleive there is an existing one that is showing promise) the deaths will be low.
If a vaccine is found, this becomes at the very extreme worst a bad flu season.
And anti-virals and vaccines WILL happen, the question is how soon ?
I would note that while this COULD be a black Swan event for Trump.
We will absolutely be able to compare to China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, and ……
People are strange and are mostly NOT going to CONSCIOUSLY factor in the comparisons.
But how advantageous or fatal to Trump this is really does depend on comparisons.
Right now, China, South Korea, Iran. and Italy have more cases than the US,
But so do France, Germany, Spain, Japan,
And nearly all of Europe has more cases as a % of population.
Sweden as an example has half as many cases as the US but 1/30 as many people.
Just incase you think that Trump is he only target of this left wing nut lawfare political vindictiveness.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/missouri-case-felled-gop-governor-boomerangs-george-soros-backed
Dump Donnie at it again. Listen to the vapid fool’s muttering on Hannity – a gobbledygook of misinformation.
1. Denies WHO’s coronavirus death rate based on “hunch”
There is no WHO “official” death rate. There are numerous estimates – Trump specifically attacks the 3.4% claim, that is generally regarded as a significant over estimate.
The 1918 Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of 2% it killed 20-100M people in a world with a population of 1.6B. To be equivalent Covid-19 would have to kill 100-500M people today.
Even your ludicrously high – low estimate of 15m deaths would be about 1/5 proportionately those of the “spanish flu”.
There are many published mortality estimates for Covid-19 well below 1%.
2. Calls coronavirus “corona flu”
So ? It would be more accurate to decribe it as a cold, than a flu, but is this really the hill you want to die on ?
3. Suggests it’s fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
He does not “suggest” that he notes that it is likely they will and the world will not end.
“4. Compares coronavirus to “the regular flu,” indicating he doesn’t get the difference ”
So he does what ordinary people do all the time and your being critical ?
Regardless – what is the difference ? Since you are claiming there is this huge obvious difference – what is it ?
The symptoms are identical. For 80% of those infected with Covid-19 the symptoms are LESS than the flu, often much less, many people – possibly as much as 40% get it and do not know they have it – they have no symptoms.
The spread is identical. Via bodily contact, or contact with surfaces that have the virus on from coughing.
We are still working on data on the spread rate – but it appears to be LOWER than the Flu.
In Wuhan only between 80-150,000 people got it out of a population of 11M.
And that was the epicenter. On the diamond princess only 1/4 of the passengers and crew contracted it – and they were all confined together on a small cruise ship for weeks.
The diamond Princess data suggests a mortality rate of <1%
Seriously, Jay, who the heck is Aaron Rupar? Do you just believe anyone who hates Trump and tweets?
And, as far as WHO goes, from CNN (not a pro-Trump news outlet, in case you hadn’t heard 😉 ) :
“The WHO’s praise of China’s response have led critics to question the relationship between the two entities. The UN agency relied on funding and the cooperation of members to function, giving wealthy member states like China considerable influence. Perhaps one of the most overt examples of China’s sway over the WHO is its success in blocking Taiwan’s access to the body, a position that could have very real consequences for the Taiwanese people if the virus takes hold there.
The WHO’s position regarding China has also renewed a longstanding debate about whether the WHO, founded 72 years ago, is sufficiently independent to allow it to fulfill its purpose.”
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/14/asia/coronavirus-who-china-intl-hnk/index.html
I’ll take Trump’s hunch over WHO’s. We don’t have enough info.
I do not have a problem with the WHO, or the WHO’s numbers.
I have a problem with presuming the WHO is the word of god.
All the criticism’s of the WHO that you note are valid too.
But my big problem is the WHO is essentially government funded.
I do not care what the games and biases of private organizations are – they are entitled to them.
Even the WHO thinks there own numbers are too high.
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/WHO-global-mortality-rate-death-World-Health-Org-15104402.php
The death rate for the Flu – absent the flu vaccine is comparable to Covid-19.
We will have a Covid-19 vaccine, we already have a candidate in trials.
The question is how soon.
We have just over 100K cases world wide today.
We have had more people recover each day, than are infected for every day of the past 4 weeks. We have has less new cases than the day before for evey day of the past 4 weeks.
56K of those are RECOVERED, so there are fewer active cases than people who had the disease and are recovered. That is another strong indicator that we have hit the peak.
My prediction is that there will be about 1M cases across the world before we are done,
And we will discover that instead of 100K right now there have actually been about 400K and nearly all those were mild.
With about 6000 total deaths by the time this is passed.
And that in another 4 months Covid-19 will have passed.
Dave..Everyone..Excellent site to monitor. The only issue I take on Dave’s comment is hitting the peak. maybe worldwide when China included, but it looks like growth still occurring outside China.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Go to bottom of page, click on detailed info by country, then find link in middle of that link for testing by country. Shocking info concerning USA.
That is why I am calling this Trumps Black Swan
There is nothing wrong with your site, but they are about 24hrs behind JHU and JHU is updated hourly.
Further JHU makes the same information and more mostly more accessible.
The total cases world wide graph on your site is interesting, but it must be analysed carefully.
First what is “under control” – fewer new cases today than yesterday, More recoveries per day than new cases.
China appears to have Covid-19 under control, As do many other countries.
Even South Korea appears to be under control.
But Iran in particular does not.
But the world as a whole is CLOSE to undercontrol, but not quite yet.
Stopping the spread of Covid-19 on a dime is NOT POSSIBLE.
You can see by looking at the progression in various countries how effective they are.
China is under control. It will be two more months before Covid-19 is completely burned out in China. But the Chinese will have fewer and fewer active cases every day, and fewer and fewer new infections everyday.
That proves it is possible to control Covid-19.
Total cases in China by the time this dies will likely be 200K – or 400K if we beleive the Chinese are lying by 50% or if we beleive that there are 50% asymptomatic cases.
We will see the same pattern in other countries.
Take the number of cases in that country when they gain control and double that and it will be the total cases before this burns out in that country.
I can not get a US only daily curve, but we are not seeing exponential growth in the US, and if we are not, then we are close to under control.
At the same time with only 260 Cases out of 330m people we are dealing with sparse and highly inaccurate data.
Speaking of squabbling toward the apocalypse… Oh, the irony. Nothing ever changes here.
Roby, the whole point of commenting on a blog that is about politics, is to debate, well….politics!
The 4 or 5 of us here do that, and I imagine, if we really didn’t want to “squabble,” we would just stop commenting here, as you, for the most part, have. I get it ~ when I am feeling anxious and worried about the state of things in the world, I often take a break from following the news, commenting here, etc.
I get frustrated with Jay, but not because he calls me a Trump floozy or anything…that’s just stupid playground namecalling, and I can ignore it, for the most part. I’ll type this very quietly, but sometimes~ rarely, but sometimes ~Jay’s comments give me another perspective on the world of politics ~ a perspective that helps me see things in a new way. I like that.
I’d like to see you here more often, but I recognize and respect that you prefer to just pop in now and then. I’m glad that you do. In any case, if we are heading toward the apocalypse, I appreciate Rick’s giving us a chance to squabble along the way.
I get frustrated, because insults and slurs are not arguments.
They do not contribute to anything. They do not change minds, if anything they set positions more rigidly.
If you want me to consider what you say, say something worth thinking about.
Provide facts where facts are important,
Provide arguments to support your claims, point of view, …
Insulting me or others, at best accomplishes nothing, at worst it diminishes your credibility.
I do not care if you disagree with me. Make a credible argument and i will consider it.
Though you should expect that you do not persuade me by making me feel good, you persuade by making an argument that holds up to criticism, to critical examination.
?I will credit you if you are atleast willing to make an argument rather than just insult those who disagree, but you should not presume that merely because you have refrained from insult, that you will persuade.
Arguments are tested in the cruicible, by tearing them apart, by rigorous criticism.
The truth is what is left when all that is false has been burned away.
The process of finding the truth is contentious.
You are not entitled to a safe space for your ideas.
What are you after at TNM ?
An echo chamber ?
A world where mutual agreement is more important than truth ?
Oh I don’t see an apocalypse really. I have bought and read nearly every book ever written on the Apollo and Mercury and Gemini programs in the last month or two and if there is one thing they bring up its the events of the 60s especially 1968 when Apollo 8 “saved” 1968 according to some. So, I don’t think things are nearly so dark as they have been many times in our history. If there is a worry of catastrophe its from Lil Kim, because he is nuts and fanatically determined to win South Korea back and he holds strong cards. I give trump credit for his imagination and willingness to end a 70 year old war, but I suspect that history will show that lil kim played him. I hope not though, I’d be happy to see that war settled without N Korea swallowing S korea and allowing us to end our involvement and be able to put worrying about N Korean subs with nukes controlled by a lunatic. That would be worth swallowing seeing trump and Lil Kim get a Noble peace prize. But i doubt it. I think our problems are now if anything worse and the next president will have an even weaker hand to play in the Korean conflict. But what trump did was it was worth trying.
The degradation of the office of POTUS through idiotic commentary by its holder and its breaking of the normal boundaries, such as what happened in Ukraine that got trump rightfully impeached, are both disgusting and alarming issues with severe long term consequences, but they are not an apocalypse. They weaken us in the long run in many ways.
I am glad you do not see the world going to hell.
That is good perception.
I think Iran is more phanatical and dangerous than NK – but Iran can not directly reach the US – and won’t likely for a long time.
Lil Kim is actually trying to negotiate – and that is a very very good sign.
But serious progress could take many years.
But we are making progress and we were not for 70 years.
Further every year that Lil Kim is slowed down, gives him less leverage.
The US has opted out of the INF and ABM treaties – and alot of that is driven by NK and iran.
We currently have a 2 tier ABM system that has a slightly better than 50:50 chance of taking out something from NK. Soon enough it will be 5 tier, and the odds far smaller of succeeding.
Lil Kim has a negotiating window – like that of the Palestinians, and it is slowly closing.
Change is not inherently good.
When you change something that functions albeit imperfectly, it is far more likely that you make it worse rather than better.
Can Barr be put behind bars?
——————————
“Federal Judge Says He Needs to Review Every Mueller Report Redaction Because Barr Can’t Be Trusted…”
“Judge Reggie Walton slammed the attorney general’s “misleading,” “calculated” attempt to spin the report in Trump’s favor.
“Attorney General William Barr’s wildly inappropriate campaign to spin the Mueller report in Donald Trump’s favor last year may have finally backfired. On Thursday, U.S. District Judge Reggie Walton ordered Barr to submit the full, unredacted report so he could assess whether the Department of Justice’s redactions comply with the Freedom of Information Act. Walton’s remarkable order noted that Barr’s “misleading public statements” about the report raise the possibility that his redactions are “tainted” and “self-serving”—and, by extension, illegal.”
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/barr-mueller-report-redactions-foia.html
GOP is gona have a hard time spinning this one. Not an Obama judge. This one is a 41 appointment.
Ron, there is nothing to spin.
Most of this is editorializing and is outside the Judges authority.
There is significant preasure to unredact the Mueller report as much as possible as well as more broadly release underlying information.
Some of that will generate some negative Trump news cycles, but with near certainty there will be more positive Trump news cycles.
There are already multiple credible claims that Mueller and his attorneys have been lying to the courts.
And the “links” crap is spin garbage. mueller put every Forking “link” under a microscope.
And there are 1000 times more links between HFA and the Russians than TFA.
Someone in the Trump campaign knows someone whose parents immigrated from Russia will not get you very far.
If you dispense with the editorializing there is nothing here.
First the Judges is improperly trying to rewrite the Mueller report and Barr’s memo’s.
The judge is not the Special Counsel or a prosecutor. That is not his business.
As to the redactions – those were primarily decided by Mueller. I have ZERO problem with making as much of what is redacted public as possible.
And the article is misrepresenting the redactions. The Judge does not have access to them.
There is a reason we have a separate FISA court, Ordinary courts do not have access to classified material.
Regardless, I am neither upset nor car much about this article which is mostly spin.
If the Judge wants more of the redactions made public – I hope he succeeds.
The rest is editorializing.
Nor is this Judge alone in asking for that – Grassley and Graham, and Johnson and Nunes and numerous republicans are demanding that more of the Mueller report be made public.
Nunes and the House Republicans are preparing criminal rfeferals to DOJ against the Mueller prosecutors because material in the Redacted and unredacted Mueller report conflicts with what they have told the courts – in Flynn’s case, in Papadoulis’s in Stone’s, ….
AND BTW those contradications are glaring and obvious. Further I want much more of the underlying information made public.
Mueller told the court when Sentencing Papadoulis that Papadoulis’s “lies” hindered their ability to aprehend and question Mifsud – yet the FBI 302’s claim Papadoulis fully cooperated – particularly on Mifsid, begging the FBI to question Mifsud and giving them everything he knew. And that is only one area.
Increasingly it is self evident that the Mueller investigation was just like the 2001 Anthrax letters, and the Richard Jewel investigation, and … myriads of other Mueller investigations where they doggedly persued innocent people long after they KNEW they were innocent.
I am ALL FOR shedding as much sunlight as possible on this.
All I oppose is letting some idiot federal judge excercise editorial control of DOJ memo’s.
Nor am I the slightest concerned here – because unlike you and this judge I am capable of critical thinking.
Horowitz concluded that by Mid January 2017 there was no longer reasonable suspicion that there was a crime. EVERYTHING after that was improper, illegal, and I am perfectly happy to shine as much sunlight on that as possible.
“First the Judges is improperly trying to rewrite the Mueller report and Barr’s memo’s.”
I’m sure you and DUMB DONALD will get your heads together on that and issue a joint statement on Fox.
“I’m sure you and DUMB DONALD will get your heads together on that and issue a joint statement on Fox.”
I have no idea what was said on FOX, I do know how to read YOUR article.
I also know the legitimate scope of a judges authority.
The case before the judge is whether the redacted information should be released.
He probably is responding to a FOIA request.
His judgements about Barr’s memo are both erornous, irrelevant and outside his domain.
If you filed a court case challenging Barr’s memo you would be laughed out of the court.
And if you are not, then the judge is not doing their job.
The courts do not get to second guess the executive, on whatever decisions they choose.
They have the authority to enforce existing laws, and the consitution.
Absent a claim that Barr violated the law or the constitution, the judge has no legitimate voice.
The judge DOES have the authority to enforce an FOIA request.
That is a legitimate question of law.
But it is an appealable one.
I would greatly prefer that we are all provided as much of the raw mueller report and the records behind it as possible.
But we will not get all of it.
GJ material will not be released. If this Judge rules otherwise he will be overturned.
There could be lots of infighting over sources and methods and national security – and appeals.
Again I am for releasing as much as possible.
And I fully expect ALOT to be released – particularly leading up to the election.
And I expect far more of the damage to fall on Mueller, the FBI and DOJ than on Trump.
Though I do expect the DOJ/FBI to be overly self protective – just as Rosenstein was.
No one likes to see their dirty laundry aired – and Even Bill Barr is going to be somewhat overly protective of Comey Mueller and their minions.
Right now we have enormous indications that lots of lying was going on – By Mueller’s team to the courts.
If you are expecting to see a reversal of the tide against Trump on this DREAM ON,
The tide is flowing against the Special Counsel, not Trump now.
I read this from Ezra Klein and its pretty much right on:
“So the 2020 election is going to come down to:
– A 73-year-old conspiracy theorist who rambles incoherently and lies constantly
vs.
– A 77-year-old who rambles and sometimes loses his place
or
– A 78-year-old socialist who just had a heart attack”
I could add that the 78 year old was running around as an enthusiastic marxist leninist in his mid 40s 15 years after Lennon wrote the lyric: ” and if you going carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain’t gonna make it with anyone anyhow”
I regard neo-leninists as kindly as I regard neo-nazis.
One thing that Ron has absolutely right is that right now the election is Trump’s to lose.
To beat Trump democrats must get BOTH the “democratic establishment” and the “bernie bros” to unite behind on candidate – with ZERO losses, and with high enthusiasm.
It does not matter which one wins the nomination, that is not happening.
As to Trump – what are Trump’s “Conspiracy theories” ?
So far every “conspiracy” he has been chastized on has proven true.
All I can say about Ezra Klein is “there are worse”.
But this is possibly the number one cheerleader for ObamaCare.
Not someone whose judgement I would trust.
To hell with the Bernie brothers let them go, they were never Democrats anyhow, mostly they are brats living with their parents. Not even voters as often as not. I’ll take the gains on the center. That includes the trump disgusted people that George Will represents, and George Conway. Biden has at least a 50 percent. Chance in my eyes. But talk is cheap. Events will occur votes will be counted then we will know.
“To hell with the Bernie brothers let them go, they were never Democrats anyhow, mostly they are brats living with their parents. Not even voters as often as not. ”
How many votes can democrats afford to lose ?
This is a conundrum both parties face – as them move toward the center they lose the more extreme parts of their own base. The relative gains and losses matter, if your objective is to win the election.
“I’ll take the gains on the center. That includes the trump disgusted people that George Will represents, and George Conway.”
I do not know about Conway, Will might not vote for Trump, but I would be surprised if he votes for Biden.
Biden is not a solid vote for those in the center.
Nor are Will and Conway going to decide the election. Blue collar voters are – just like 2016.
Biden was supposed to be effective against Trump with those voters.
I think you will find that is no longer so.
Biden has lost his authenticity to blue collar voters.
” Biden has at least a 50 percent. Chance in my eyes.”
We will see how good your eyes are in Novermber.
Seriously, you appear to believe that only party faithful vote. It’s the independent s and moderates who will decide this.
“Seriously, you appear to believe that only party faithful vote. It’s the independent s and moderates who will decide this.”
Voting is far more complex than this – as should be evident from 2016.
Trump quite litterally traded evangelical votes for Blue Collar votes.
Knowing that he was not losing Alabama no matter what, and that he had to win the rust belt.
It is highly likely that Trump will get far more evanglical votes in 2020 which will raise his popular vote total significantly.
But that does not matter, because they will only run up the score in states he is certain to win.
Hillary ran up the score in California – but it did her no good, because she still lost in the rust belt.
Regardless, my point is that electoral politics is not simple tradeoffs between the center and the extremes. It is not even as simple as attracting the most voters,
Obama was highly successful against Romney in the rust belt – not by getting Democrats out to vote, or getting republicans and centrists to vote for him, but by getting republicans to stay home.
Even if the majority of the country does not want Trump as president, he will still win – and possibly big, if Biden or whoever can not get enough people to vote for him.
Neither party is going to get ALL of the centrist votes, each candidate must figure out which of their opponents voters they can persuade not to vote, and exactly where to position themselves to get the exact right ballance of those int he center and those at their parties fringes.
Trump’s 2016 victory might have been a close shave – but it is not luck or an accident, he knew exactly what he was doing.
I have not yet looked at Super Tuesday turnout – though My understanding is Sanders got thumped because his voters did not vote in the numbers expected.
Regardless, overall in the primary so far Democratic voting has been DOWN.
And Republican Voting has been UP.
While the raw numbers in the primaries favor Democrats.
The democrats have a contentious primary and have very low turnout for a contentious primary. If a party can not draw voters to a contentious primary, they are in trouble in the general.
Conversely Trump is running about double the number of voters an incumbant usually gets in an uncontested primary. Which bodes very well for the general.
Anyway, no I do not beleive only the party faithful vote. Or anything close to that.
To the extent there are blocks at all – as opposed to invidual voters, there are multiple blocks within each party, and among independents and each block typically has multiple choices.
Vote for A, Vote for B, or do not vote.
And each of these choices matters for each and every block for both parties.
A large number of voters across the ideological spectrum swung to Biden in the last few days. Interesting stats here;
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-the-voters-who-swung-super-tuesday-for-biden/
I have honestly lost interest in Nate Sliver’s analysis after 2016. He should go back to baseball. In the past several elections RCP and Rassmussen have done better,
He is letting his partisan biases cloud his process.
But let me ask you:
We know that Sander’s got less total votes than expected – not because of undecides, but because his own committed voters did not show up in the numbers expected.
He did not bring in his own Core.
He has actually done worse overall in terms of total votes than in 2016, But he was winning because of a crowded field
The Big factor in Biden’s Super Tuesday was the presure the DNC put on to get Biden’s competitors out of the race.
The DNC knows that 57% of americans will NOT vote for a socialist.
The DNC knows that Sanders will Lose.
They looked at the choices they have left and bet the house on Biden.
You can beleive Biden can win this all the way to the Election.
Ron wanted to bet that Trump would lose to Biden with the caveat the bet was off if Biden stuck his foot in his mouth.
There is no question that Biden will stick his foot in his mouth, the question is how many times a week and how far down his espohagus it will go.
If Democrats wanted to win this election they needed a good candidate.
They do not have one.
I do not hate Biden, i do not dislike him.
But like many many other elder statesman, he should have stayed home and spent his golden years with his family.
He could have walked away as a relatively successful Vice President.
Had he stayed out the the 2020 race no one would be digging into his past corruption.
Now he is going to be remembered as the man ran for president 5 times and lost all 5.
And he will be remembered as the doddering fool running today, who can not keep his wife and his sister straight, and who bought a platnium lifestyle for his drug addict son.
We all pray are kids do not grow up to be Hunter.
Most of us will stand beside them even if they do.
But we should not expect voters to put us into the white house.
“ He is letting his partisan biases cloud his process.”
You’re letting your own mental biases destroy your reasoning process. Just like Dumb Donald you find it impossible to accept the validity of thinkers far more experienced and reasonable if their views don’t match your own rigid constructs.
A fool and his prejudices are seldom parted.
“:” He is letting his partisan biases cloud his process.”
You’re letting your own mental biases destroy your reasoning process. Just like Dumb Donald you find it impossible to accept the validity of thinkers far more experienced and reasonable if their views don’t match your own rigid constructs.
A fool and his prejudices are seldom parted.”
I am not a judge opining in a court.
This is not even about whether he is right or wrong. It is about whether he is acting inside his defined role or outside.
Judges do not decide policy.
They do not get to express political oppinions – atleast not in public, and certainly not in court.
They do not get to have views on policy – atleast not in court.
You and I do – we are not judges.
The validity of his thinking is irrelevant. it is outside his scope.
When a judge is acting outside his scope in court – that is a problem.
And again it does not matter whether he is right.
And to be clear I highly doubt the judge is even close to as experienced a thinker.
My occupation is logic. That is what I do all the time.
I would further note that law really is and must be a rigid construct.
You should not get different outcomes from different judges.
Justice should be as close as possible to an absolute construct.
Variability in justice is inherently unjust.
Except for the fact that we would not want the programmers to incorporate their own political biases, Legal reasoning is something that we are not likely far away from implementing through Artificial intelligence. Legal Reasoning is simpler than Chess.
Regardless, in this instance this judges error is not in legal reasoning, it is in exceeding his authority.
A judge has the authority – following the law to preclude a prosecutor from making arguments that are not constitutional, or violate the rules of procedure.
No judge on earth can compel a prosecutor to make the arguments he would prefer. And absent a controversy in which the judge has been selected by the defendant over a jury as the arbitor of fact, the judge is constrained to decisions about law in the controversy that is legitimately before him.
The claim before him is a request to make information that is not public public.
There is no possible legitimate legal claim regarding the Mueller report or Barr’s memo’s.
I fully support his ordering the release of as much as can possibly be released.
I do not give a fork what he thinks that information that neither he nor we have seen means.
I do not need other people to tell me how to think for myself – nor should you, though you do not seem to ever express your own oppinion or argument. Everything from you is “So and So said” – appeals to bad authority – more fallacy.
“ He is letting his partisan biases cloud his process.”
You’re letting your own mental biases destroy your reasoning process. Just like Dumb Donald you find it impossible to accept the validity of thinkers far more experienced and
reasonable if their views don’t match your own rigid constructs.
A fool and his prejudices are seldom parted. ….That deserves repeating
“It’s the independents and moderates who will decide this.”
I think that, while this was once true, it is more true these days that base turnout drives electoral victories. For all those who self-define as moderates, most of them lean heavily toward one party or another. The days when true “swing” voters could influence the outcome of a national election are over, at least for the time being.
Ron is probably one of those true swing voters, but who in the Democrat field (other than our favorite moderate Joe Manchin!) is moderate enough for him? And Trump, while being far more moderate than the average GOP president, is not going to get his vote either. That’s the pickle in which many swing voting moderates find themselves.
So, it makes more sense for the candidates to expand and appeal to their base voters, and make sure that they vote. That’s why the Bernie bro problem is real…Democrats need to get them to the polls for Biden, and that means Biden will have to give them a reason to vote for him. Or at least more of a reason than Hillary did…
Either that, or nominate a black woman vp, who will drive up the black and liberal female vote. Biden has solid support among black Democrats, but I don’t think that they would go to the polls in droves for him, the way they did for Obama. This is why Amy Klobuchar won’t be on the ticket, despite her appeal to moderates.
Trump’s base will come out, and if the Democrats can get their base to come out, it’s a 50/50 election The electoral map will decide it.
They could not get the Bernie Bros to the polls on super tuesday for Bernie.
How are they going to get them to the polls for Biden ?
My nephew is a rabid bernie bro.
He has been absolutely convinced that Bernie would have won 2016 but for the DNC and Clinton and would beat Trump in 2020 but for the machinations of the DNC.
He has plenty fo evidence that the democratic establishment conspired against Sanders – they did that right up front.
The chances he will vote for Biden are ZERO.
‘“ The chances he will vote for Biden are ZERO.”
For every one of those Bernie dopes, three former Republican Never-Trumpers will replace them.
And your prognostications about the Biden turnout Against Dopy Don are as spurious as your prediction Biden was a dead-man-walking after his first primary loss to Bernie.
Any earthquake or meteor predictions forthcoming?
“For every one of those Bernie dopes, three former Republican Never-Trumpers will replace them.”
There are far more bernie bros than nevertrumpers,
Further outside of neocons a significant portion (though not all) nevertrumpers are back in the fold.
Never Trumpers still exist, But they are less than in 2016 – and even with them, things did not turn out well for Hillary.
In March of 2016 Clinton was 12pts up on Trump. That is more than Double the RCP average for Biden right now. biden’s current numbers are only Barely better than Clinton’s on election day – and we know how that turned out.
And finally as even Ron knows – Biden is not going to get any better with time.
“And your prognostications about the Biden turnout Against Dopy Don are as spurious as your prediction Biden was a dead-man-walking after his first primary loss to Bernie.”
He still is.
The democratic establishment has propped up Biden. They had a choice between losing to Trump and getting their clock cleaned. they strong armed everyone else out of the race.
I would also note Warren is now Out, and it is likely that most of her voters will go to Bernie.
Had that happened before Super Tuesday – Biden would not have won outside the South.
There are very few never-Trumpers now who were not already never-Trumpers in 2016. Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is close to 95% .
So, I don’t think it’s likely that, for every Bernie bro, there will be 2 or 3 Republicans voting Biden. There will be some, there always are voters who change …but it’s not like Republicans love Joe Biden. He seems like a nice guy and all, but, seriously, he is not sharp, and it’s obvious. So, I”m pretty sure Biden’s gonna need those socialist votes.
We have lots of conflicting data.
Jay spouts that which supports the claim that Biden will win easily.
You and I have data that contradicts that.
Something is wrong – it is not actually possible for all the data to be correct.
As you note: There are fewer not more Never Trumpers today than in 2016.
Trump’s support among evangelicals was weak in 2016 – it is strong today. Lots of red states that were pink in 2016 will be red in 2020. That will not win alter the election but it means the number of votes for Trump in those states and overall will be higher.
Trump’s support among blacks and hispanics is atleast 10% higher than in 2016 – even if it is only 1/2 or 1/3 of that so long as it is the same or more than 2016 the outcome does not change or is favorable to Trump.
Democrats were more complacent in 2016 and they were more angry in 2018 – yet while that gave them the house they actually lost ground in the Senate, and it could have been worse easily. Some primaries are showing Democrats more energized but alot are showing much lower turnout. Trump is currently polling 5pts behind Biden – but he was 13pts behind Clinton at this time. Sanders voters seem to be even angrier at the democratic establishment right now, than in 2016 – Sanders voters sitting out in 2016 was a major factor costing Clinton the election. Yet, Sanders is getting Less votes in 2020 than in 2016. Democrats are drifting from anger to anxiety – historically angry electorates win anxious ones lose.
Trump is weaker with White Women in 2020 than in 2016 – but stronger in pretty much every other demographic. Biden’s “kryptonite” for Trump was his appeal to rust belt blue collar voters that went for Trump over Clinton in 2016. If even a small portion of them defect – Trump loses the critical rust belt. Yet, his support there appears stronger not weaker. there are numerous credible plans that have Trump adding several states in 2020, While Democrats must flip more than one – and possibly several states to win in 2020.
The Faux impeachment has not Hurt Trump with his core voters, Nor has it hurt him with centrists and independents. But it has hurt Biden with the very voters he needs to attract.
Trump has been pummeled for 3 years as a liar, and a crook looking to profit off the presidency – yet every attempt to prove that has failed. While at the same time one wonders from Day to Day whether Biden will forget his own name today, and the stories have gone beyond Ukraine and Hunter. It is Biden that looks like he has used public office to profit not Trump, In 2020 Republicans are getting the kind of recruits for the house that Democrats got in 2018, they are getting respected soldiers, and they are getting lots of women. Good candidates show up when they beleive they can win. Trump’s rallies are running almost twice as large as in 2016.
This is not all the data points – there are more – some favoring Trump some not.
Regardless, nearly all are well documented and they can not all be true.
Eventually you have to look at the information and decide which way you think it really leans – what to keep and what to reject. And if possible do so without confirmation bias, which is hard to overcome.
I do not think approval rates matter than much. Nor do I think national polls matter as much.
I suspect it is true that Democrats in deep blue states will vote even more strongly against Trump. Trump is not winning California, or New York, or massachusetts. or Illinois. And he could lose them significantly worse than in 2016. But that is not contradictory with his doing better in states than he won or barely lost in 2016.
Finally, democrats are behaving desparately. They are behaving as if they beleive they are going to lose.
It might be arguable that on paper Joe Biden was the best candidate to beat Trump, But in the real world he has had a bruising Primary, and he has come out looking like a bad hologram of the Candidate that is supposed to beat Trump.
Further the entire democratic primary ran far tot he left to this point. That may have played to their base but it alienated the center.
Biden needs the sanders voters to win the popular vote.
I am not sure they are so important in the electoral college.
He needs to eat into Trump’s blue collar support, and most indications I see are that has grown not shrunk.
It does not matter how many democrats in California, New York, Blue states vote for Biden.
It matters that he can flip trump voters in the rust belt. That is not Sanders teritory.
There are a couple of other issues – Sanders is not yet out of it. Warren is out and while here policies are nearer Sanders it is not clear where her voters go. If they had gone to Sanders on Super Tuesday the outcome would have been much different.
What Warren does may matter. What Warren voters do will matter.
What Sanders does next will Matter. Biden has had no problem attacking Sanders.
Some sanders supporters have attacked Biden. But Sanders himself has not really been aggressive with Biden. If Sanders goes on the offensive – that hurts Biden, even if he wins the nomination.
Can you see reality from MSNBC ?
Or the left in general ?
No.
And more compelling unreality for the left.
Bernie bro is a term without a precise definition. My idea of a bernie bro is the truly bitter little socialist revolutionary who wants to overthrow the establishment. How many are there? Tens of thousands, nearly all living under precarious circumstances due to body odor and anti social tendencies. Most were never democrats and they are no loss. They are a deadweight and I want them gone. Let them move to a utopian European country and report back in 5 years how great it is in France etc.
By far not every Bernie primary voter is a Bernie bro. Conservatives only wish.. One bad sign for your hopes: AOC has made it very sincerely clear that she will vote for Biden if he is the nominee as has Bernie. But, some Bernie bros will vote for trump. Some conservatives will vote for Biden if he is the nominee. Who can say how many till the votes are counted?
You two are completely unable to process how most people feel about trump. You are living in a trump-rosy Rasmussen world I think. Why is trump Still 10 points underwater with a good economy and having started no wars? Why did the Dems win the popular vote in the House in 2018 by about 8 percentage points? (Dave was expecting Rasmussen’s prediction of GOP gains to come true in that one, ha some wonderful crystal ball!) Why has trump been losing in so many head to head poll matchups to nearly every of the dem candidate field including to Bernie and crazy old socialist? Yes its early but all the same there is some information about the American voter in those polls. You two are out of touch with the America that is behind those numbers, they can be so whatted and nobody cares about thatted away for now.
How many times has the GOP candidate won the popular vote in the last seven elections going back to 1992? Once. You guys know this.
trump may win, I’m no fool. I put this at 50/50, given the economy. Its not going to be a popular vote blowout in either direction. America is very evenly split. Then there is my theory that when a POTUS is truly detested by the other side they almost always win. Actually always, in my lifetime. That theory says that trump will win. And Biden is not even across the dem primary finish line yet and the race could still make another turn. But the complexion of this race has now suddenly taken a strong turn for the better for the dem party since super tuesday, that is clear. Personally I am hugely relieved and will be even more relieved if and when Biden wraps this up. I hope he takes Amy Klobuchar, my favorite dem candidate, as VP.
Do you guys like any of the dem candidates and think they are a good choice? Of course you don’t, no shit sherlock! Who would expect you to? If we were waiting for your seal of approval on the dem candidate we would be waiting for the party to select a conservative.
Anyhow, This is all talk, just hot air. All kinds of things can happen in the next 8 months. I find the super confident trump victory predictions hilarious and delusional. Anyone who is supremely confident that they know how this comes out should go a place a large bet if its such a sure thing. Any takers? Not me.
Roby, I’m surprised that you can even suggest that I “can’t process” how people feel about Trump.
Is it possible that I haven’t noticed Jay’s never-ending slurs and insults about my being stupid and deluded and no better than a ass-kissing floozy (he does like the word “floozy,” I’ve noted) You are more gentlemanly in your expressions of disgust for my opinion of the President, but equally clear that you find it a sign of moral and intellectual weakness and even depravity. I get it.
That is not to say that all never-Trumpers are as vitriolic ~ certainly Rick is open to the idea that people of good will can disagree on Trump. And , living in one of the deepest of blue states, I have many friends who would vote for anyone other than Trump. If the Dems nominated an actual donkey, they would vote for it. But they know me, in some cases we have been friends for years, and they have had the opportunity to form a good opinion of my reasoning capabilities. For the most part, I stay pretty quiet when the subject of Trump comes up. I am pretty committed to the “no politics or religion” rule of social interactions.
Nevertheless, I do have a good number of friends, even here in blue, blue NJ who are Trump voters, and even some who did not vote for Trump 2016, but will in 2020. I have one friend who voted Trump. and has become disillusioned with him. I would guess that, for many like him, Biden might seem somewhat of a ‘port in the storm’…a sort of genial respite from the constant chaos that has been our politics for the last 3 years.
I also read a tremendous amount, and not all from right wing sources. I’m not a pure conservative, never have been. So, I think that the argument that Trump supporters ~ or in Dave’s case, Trump explainers/defenders ~ are not as intelligent, analytical or virtuous as Trump haters is specious.
That said, I read an interesting article which said that Bloomberg missed his opportunity to become a Trump alternative, because he was too anti-Trump. In his Fox townhall (Fox, unlike the other stations, held townhalls with every Democrat contender and with Trump), Bloomberg said that he agreed with many of Trump’s policies, but not the way in which they were carried out. In other words, he claimed to be the “sane” NYC billionaire. The author said that this was a moderate position that could attract many swing voters, especially given Bloomberg’s successful track record as abusinessman and mayor of NYC. I agree ~ I don’t find Bloomberg to have an engaging personality, but he is smart and not particularly crazy.
Anyway, the belief that Trump will be easily defeated by Joe Biden seems to me to be wishful thinking. That’s not to say that Biden can’t win ~ he can ~ but he also has many flaws and tons of baggage. And his health and energy level raise questions about his ability to do the job.
So, I see the election as very close. I agree that Trump will again lose the popular vote ~ possibly by even more than before, but it will be for the same reason…CA and NYC will run up the vote totals. Personally, I don’t want CA and NYC dictating the outcome of every presidential election, but maybe that’s just my inner Trump-floozy speaking…. 😉
I have no idea where all that came from. My comment was mild and had no connection to floozies.
However somewhere yesterday you had a comment on Biden that indicated dead certainty he is going to lose: five tries — five losses instead of a graceful disappearance. Dave has been declaring the election over and decided for a very long time. My point is that based on your confidence in a trump victory (and yes you have also sent a different message of a close election, which opinion is the real one?) both of you very much misjudge and underestimate the meaning of Trump’s ten points underwater, not to mention the 2018 house vote. You guys can stomach trump, the idea that more than 50 percent can’t and never will just does not seem to compute in your worlds. By some definition at least 52 percent of the country are never trumpets. You focus on Jay, you seem not to get that it’s not just Jay it’s a persistent majority of Americans. Which makes dead certainty of his reelection some kind of denial. Anyone who is confident in bidens easy victory is equally deluded.
Don’t know who said that, but it wasn’t me, and that’s not my position. ( And I focused on Jay, because he’s here, and a good example of someone who despises, not only Trump, but all of his supporters). Listen, I like and appreciate everyone here. The whole point of commenting here- at least, for me, is to discuss and debate. ( and, if truth be told, I don’t even mind Jay’s insults. They’re often funny, and I don’t take them to heart. But, don’t tell him that).
I find Jay’s insults tedious, boring, and rarely fun.
I pity him more than anything.
His insults add nothing to any debate or discussion – and infact they make debate and discussion more difficult.
It is very hard to have a rational discussion with someone who does nothing but insult.
Insults end debate, and shift communication to more insults to debates about people, not issues.
We spend massive amounts of time here engaged in infantile TDS.
It is impossible to debate any issue of anykind without everything being about how evil Trump and those who support him are.
How do you make decisions, have discussions about law, the constitution, the role of government, policy – even ebola or when everyone slightly left of center converts everything into a debate about people,
You want to attack my confidence in a Trump victory – fine – but that view is shared by much of the Democratic political consultants.
Trump is in a significantly better position regarding Biden right now than he was with Clinton at the same time in 2016. Further he is the incumbent not the challenger.
Trump’s approval is 4pts higher than Obama’s was at this time in 2012.
Absent some completely unpredictable intervening disaster
There is actually a betting market for this, and I do not beleive that any book maker has the odds for Trump lower than 50/50 at anytime during this election cycle – that is Trump is the odds on favorite of ALL, All the time.
At the moment Biden’s odds are at al alltime high – with just under a 40% shot and Trump has just under a 55% shot.
This is not ME, this is people taking bets on the election accross the world.
And as I said before – most Democratic political consultants you can get to speak are saying the same thing.
So lets end the baloney that I or anyone else predicting a Trump victory is some how off in lala land. That is bunk and you know it.
Absolutely there are myriads of factors, and as I have noted in several posts – the data available is self contradictory.
Trump’s unfavorables matter – but as we saw with Obama, and with Trump/Clinton in 2016 they are NOT determinative.
Further as I noted you can find DATA that favors Trump – gains in minorities, gains with men,
Gains within the blue collar set. And you can find negatives – unfavorable rating, losses with suburban white women.
But I am far from alone in weighing all this and concluding Trump will win.
Nor is that a purely republican conclusion.
Biden appears to be in position to lock the Democratic nomination right now – though that could change. As Ron noted he could comment on the Purple heart his dog got fighting in uzbekistan, or some other adled brained nonsense.
Regardless, it is unlikely to get better.
The odds strongly favor improvement for Trump over the next 8 months and declines for Biden. But some odds defying event could occur.
So I am in denial about Climate – despite the fact that the real global temperature records are a full 2+ standard deviations BELOW predictions – because lots and lots of people beleive in “climate change”.
AND
I am in denial about the election – DESPITE the fact that all the odds makers – who are just a reflection of the actual betting, and most (not all) of the political pundits including democrats agree with me ?
I can not see any criteria you use for labels like “denial” except – “disagrees with me”.
I freely admit that I am not an expert in political predictions – though I have not seen the experts do so well. I have also been wrong several times – though the experts seem to be wrong an awful lot, and most of the times I have been wrong the results have been odd and inconsistent with anyone’s predictions.
Absolutely Sanders is likely out of contention, and the odds at the moment favor Biden winning the Democratic nod. Something would have to change to get a different outcome.
Though I would note the odds of Biden doing something stupid tomorow, next week, …. are pretty high.
But even if he wins the Democratic Nodd, Biden will face Trump.
Biden is not up to that. He has not been able to beat Sanders without enormous help from the democratic establishment. If he can not defeat Sanders on his own – how do you expect him to deal with Trump ?
And I would note that Bloomberg already spent more money than Trump did in the entirety of the 2016 cycle – and he has NOTHING to show for it. So please do not tell me that saturation bombing Trump with negative adds is going to win this.
You note Trump’s negatives. You are NOT going to drive them down any further, they are about as far down as they will go absent an event that you do not control. Conversely Biden has barely been challenged.
I know Warren Personally – though not well. She was a significant Law Professor at UofP while My Wife was their. Right up through her entry into politics she was on the left – but more Center left. She taught business law. Again from a SLIGHTLY left perspective.
Her research on the causes of personal bankrupcies was excellent – though as a politician she misrepresented her own results, and as a politician she has CONSTANTLY disowned positions she held to all her life.
I strongly suspect that Warren would be a quite different president than she is a candidate.
Your remarks on Bloomberg seem to me to be the same.
The platform he ran on the adds he ran were NOT anywhere near moderate.
One of the things I and many others like about Trump is that you know what you will get.
The same is true of Sanders. It is probably true of Gabbard, but it is not true of most other democrats.
I think alot of voters are inclined to vote for someone they can trust – even if it is not someone they agree with fully.
My prediction:
Barring Trump getting caught in the oval forking a 13 yr old boy,
the election is not going to be close.
It will be close with Biden than Sanders, but still not close.
I suspect Trump will even win the popular vote.
The odds are 50:50 that the GOP will NARROWLY retake the house.
In the senate D’s will lose AL, but pick up possibly 2 other seats for a net gain of 1.
But the important question is when will democrats get their act together ?
“Don’t know who said that, but it wasn’t me, and that’s not my position.”
Yep, I had a brain failure and attributed some of Daves comments to you. You are off the hook on that particular lecture of mine. It simply applied to Dave and his belief that he can predict the winner because the facts are clear and the outcome is obvious.
Roby,
I am dealing with something called PROBALITY.
It is neither magic, nor absolute.
I have said repeatedly – I am no expert at political prediction.
I was wrong in 2018 – EVERYONE WAS WRONG.
But my track record is no worse than the “experts”
I certainly have a better track record that all the harpies who have been predicting the inevitable demise of the GOP and the domination of Democrats.
You the media, the left, the democrats have been dropping nuclear weapons on Trump for 4 years.
You carp about his approval rating and claim there is no way he can be re-elected.
I said EXACTLY the same things about Obama.
Obama’s approval rating on March 8.2012 was 3 pts LOWER than Trump’s is today.
Obama was also attacked relentlessly through his presidency – more than any president before. But those attacks were much more on policy than personal.
Regardless, by every measure the attacks on Trump have been 3 -5 times as great as those on Obama – and he is still standing, and his approval is slighty higer than Obama’s in 2012.
Who won re-election in 2012 ?
Romney was a stronger candidate than Biden (or Sanders).
Obama botched Benghazi just before the election.
Obama was running with a weak economy.
And yet he still won.
Could Trump still lose in 2020 ? Absolutely, Trump’s “betting odds” are about 55% right now – about 15pts above Biden.
All kinds of things are possible between now and the election.
But the odds are that more of what happens between now and Nov. will favor Trump than favor Biden, and less will harm Trump than Harm Biden.
I would further note that do not mostly post about the probability of Trump winning in 2020 EXCEPT as a response to Jay or You posting some nonsense that a Trump defeat is inevitable.
If you do not want to hear my view into the political crystal ball, that is easy to accomplish,
Do not share yours.
Mine atleast is consistent with most of the available data, and most of the pundits left and right – though I do not put much weight in “experts” in pretty much anything.
Well our crystal balls might not be good, but those that make a living on them, casinos, had one !ine recently on Trump at 150, meaning he had a 40% chance of reelection. That was the foreign line. The domestic line at him at 45%, about his approval number.
I beleive you are miscalculating the conversion.
The line is about 140.
But I do not think that is a 40% chance.
The current betting odds as percents I am seeing from Several places are
Trump: 52.4%
Biden:38.8
Sanders 4.2%
Control of Senate
Gop 60.8%
Democrats 39.1%
Control of House
Democrats:67.4%
GOP 32.5
These are based on Bettfair, FTX, and Predict it betting markets.
I beleive all of these are outside the US.
Trump’s odds have been close to double anyone else’s fro 2017 forward.
Trump’s Low was below 30% at the appointment of the SC. and has steadily risen since then
EBO BTW has an incredible track record.
If they say that 10 different candidates each has a 60% chance of winning.
6 will win and 4 will lose with a very tiny margin of variability.
Right now Trump has a 50% better chance of winning than Biden
That is pretty consistent with my posts
https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
In just about every post I have made on the political “facts”
I have explicitly noted that the available data is self contradictory.
It is NOT clear or OBVIOUS.
Ultimately each of us must determine for ourselves how to resolve the conflicts.
I am chosing to favor the 80% of data that is consistent with one outcome,
You are free to choose the much smaller proportion that favors the opposite.
There is no guarantee I am right.
But the odds are that I am.
All labels are necescarily imprecise, and the more precise you make them the fewer people in the group until you have only one.
If you expect to beat Trump you need as many votes as you can get. Even a Bernie Bro is a loss. Clinton spent $25 for each vote she got in 2016, She could have afforded several hundred per vote in the rust belt and won the election.
Both parties have the problem of getting a diverse group of voters to coalesce and vote for someone that inherently they disagree with on myriads of issues.
Sanders must convince moderates to vote for him to win. Biden must convince Bernie Bros
Winning a national election for president is an incredibly complex task. While there are many elements of chance in it, there is also a tremendous amount of skill and strategy.
And having somehow defined yourself in a way that will appeal to enough voters to win a primary, you must redefine yourself to win the general, and through it all you must come off as authentic, you must minimizes “gaffe’s”.
Several here continue to insist that it is some requirement that candidates appeal to moderates – centrists to win elections. That is false. They must win the most votes in the right combination of states. It is not b lack votes, or jewish votes, or moderate votes that win elections. In 2016 the most important group for Trump was blue collar democrats.
They are likely to remain the most important block for atleast a few cycles. But over time even that will change.
How important are “Bernie Bros ?” In California or New York, probably not at all.
But in light blue states they could be the difference between holding a state and an electoral college blowout for Trump.
This is not complicated. For either party, if they make the extremes happy they lose center votes and visa versa. In the case fo the dems if they make the BBs happy they lose moderate votes and visa versa. I’m all for them making the moderates happy and the BBs unhappy and in my opinion that is a numerical win, they have much more to gain in the center than on the far left.
Everything you say would be true if the objective was to win the popular vote,
But as you should clearly understand by now, that is NOT the goal.
The goal is to win 270 electoral votes.
Absent one party or the other picking a truly insane candidate, probably 2/3 of the states are given at the start. Even those in play lean one way or the other.
The actual goal is to win the popular vote in those swing states.
Those states are NOT representative of the country as a whole.
Further – just as the Senate tends to tilt republican and even in the House the GOP has a natural 4-5pt advantage because democrats heavily congregate in a few large cities in the country. Even the swing states lean weakly to the GOP.
If you want to win a presidential election you have to figure out how to win 270 electoral votes, and you have to get the most popular votes in each of several states that themselves are each different from the country as a whole.
One of Bernies problems – and all extreme left candidates is that their natural voters are mostly concentrated in those deep blue enclaves. If you go through the list of States Biden has won in the primary – those are nearly all states that Republicans will likely win in the general.
Clinton lost for many reasons – but one of those was that she was so sure of her own victory – and how could she not be – NYT and 538 were giving her 98% shots of winning right up to 9pm election night, anyway instead of locking critical swing states she focused on running up the popular by getting more people out to vote in CA. She was hoping for a popular vote victory that she could claim as a mandate, and instead lost the election.
So no, winning an election is not so simple as appealing to moderates.
But worse – your analysis presumes the country divides along a two dimensional bell curve.
Political orientation in the US is multi-axis.
As an example – you say you are a moderate, Possibly where you live you are.
But your not Priscilla or Ron, or Rick or Jay or me.
Maybe you think the rest of us are not moderates. Atleast some of us think you are not.
In the end there is no such thing.
We know that blue collar white male former democrats were the key to Trump wining in 2016 and likely a significant part of 2020.
Are they moderates ? They think so.
Are they like you ? Me ? Priscilla ? Ron ? Rick ? Jay ?
They are fairly different from each of us. But they have just as strong a claim to moderate as you or I.
Further – most people do not vote.
In 2016 55% of voters voted. That is about the equivalent of every democrat and every republican and no moderates at all. That was not the mix, but the point is that there are numerous factors in elections. Campaigns strive to get people to vote FOR their candidate.
They strive to get people to vote agains the other candidate, but they also strive to get people who might have voted for the other candidate to stay home.
Elections are decided by who shows up – and who does not.
This is why the constitution and law must be narrow and strictly enforced, and government must be limited.
Whether Clinton or Trump in 2016, or Trump or biden or Sanders in 2020 – only about 1/4 of the country will have decided who our leader is.
We do not want the angriest or most provoked 1/4 of us to decide what law and government all of us are subject to.
“How can I say how many until the votes are counted ?”
I can’t neither can you or Jay or anyone else. We are all engaged in the same speculative game. We are all trying to guess what will happen in Nov. 2020.
I do not pretend to be omniscient. I try to assess the data we have from various sources – some of which is contradictory, and try to figure out what is more likely to be true than what is less likely.
“You two are completely unable to process how most people feel about trump. ”
My most important sources of information on 2020 are NOT on the left.
There are myriads of stories about the panic within the democratic party, the realization they are going to lose again to Trump. Further the desparate actions of democrats since the Mueller report are a big clue. The stories by respected analysts noting that democrats are moving from anger to anxiety. The fact that Biden is a weak candidate who has been seriously gored by the democratic effort to take out Trump – as well as his own problems, and that the alternative is a socialist who is STILL praising castro.
As to how people feel about Trump – it does not matter how the people who were never going to vote for him anyway do. What matters is how those he needs to win the election feel.
I would suggest following Selena Zito on that. She is a moderate left reporter, who could not get a political reporting position in 2016 so on her own she went out and reported on “Trump country” and was one of the earliest to predict Trump would win. Currently she says Trump support in those critical areas is STRONGER than 2016.
Everybody blew the 2018 Election – even the RCP average was off more than 2pts,
Further 2018 was an incredibly odd election. Very late anger over the Kavanaugh hearings brought substantial energy to GOP Senate races, and Republicans did very well in Senate races and very easily could have done much better. But at the same time they did very badly in the house.
I would be happy to hear an explanation for that the makes sense. Plenty of “experts” are still trying to sort it out today.
Regardless, due to the tendency of democrats to cluster in cities Republicans have about a 4pt advantage in house and presidential elections. Senate elections are divided by state and republicans have a greater advantage there.
Regardless you keep saying that everyone hates Trump. Maybe your right.
But if that is so why is the fear within the democratic party so palpable ?
You talk disdainfully of the Bernie Bros – and yes there is no way in the world Sanders wins,
But that is the center of positive energy in the Democratic party today.
Regardless, as I said before – there is alot of contradictory data at the moment.
Many of the things you claim that purportedly will assure Trump’s defeat have data to support them. But there are different data sources available that CAN NOT concurrently be true.
In the end some of the data we have MUST be wrong.
Rassmussen was wrong in 2018. They have been wrong before – badly. They have also been right when everyone else was wrong. Just as 538 has been incredibly embarrassingly wrong.
Just to be clear NO ONE got 2018 right and even today NO ONE can rationally explain it.
Democratic success in the house SHOULD have won them the Senate and several governorship. They did much better than expected in the house, and worse than expected in the Senate and the governors races.
As to “my crystal ball” – I have never claimed expertise. All I claim is that the pundits suck too.
And the evidence for that is excellent. You noted Rasmusens failure.
Absolutely Rassmussen has been pretty bad in several elections cycles.
They have also been dead on right in several when no one else agreed with them.
Nor are they unique – 538 has been pretty good many times and catastrophically wrong others.
“Anyhow, This is all talk, just hot air. All kinds of things can happen in the next 8 months.”
Anything can happen – but if you are in a position where your desired outcome requires, a recession, epidemic, nuclear war or some other deux et machina, you have likely already lost.
As I have said many times – Trump could be caught forking a 13yr old boy in the oval.
but if your desired outcome requires something like that your odds are horrible.
Jay is hopefully awaiting the release of redacted portions of the Mueller report in the expectation of some blockbuster damaging information on Trump.
Possible ? Certainly. Likely ? What is most likely is more of what we have already seen – which is what is hidden FAVORS Trump rather than damages him.
Regardless, I am in favor of releasing as much as possible, and let the chips fall where they will.
Of course there are ways to bet on this – as well as myriads of other things. RCP lists the betting Odds on the democratic presidential nominee on their main page.
.
All this predictions of elections is about the least interesting posts that occur on TNM
As you note – we all get to find out in Nov. Before then it is tea leaves and crystal balls.
Nor do I even care alot – should democrats win the presidency in 2020 – they have to deliver.
They not only have to keep campaign promises – Trump has substantially raised the bar on that, but they also have to deliver jobs and a growing economy.
A return to the Obama era WILL NOT cut it.
You say that I will not like any democrat – of course not. It is not possible to be a democratic contender today without being atleast quasi statist. The web’s and Manchin’s and actually sane, truly centrist democrats are unicorns.
“Anyhow, This is all talk, just hot air. All kinds of things can happen in the next 8 months. I find the super confident trump victory predictions hilarious and delusional. Anyone who is supremely confident that they know how this comes out should go a place a large bet if its such a sure thing. Any takers? Not me.”
I agree completely.
I would be happy to agree to quit talking about elections, and candidates, and focus on issues without any regard to parties and candidates.
There are lots of issues.
I am constantly fighting against pretending we can read other peoples minds.
But every time discussion shifts to Trump or Sanders or Biden, or the 2020 election it becomes a test of clairvoyance.
“For every one of those Bernie dopes, three former Republican Never-Trumpers will replace them.”
I agree that 8 months out is too far from the election to make predictions.
We don’t even know that Biden will be the Democrat nominee.
He’s had a great week, for sure, but that can be wiped out as quickly as the coronavirus/ global supply chain crisis has wiped out the bull market.
Coronavirus. My parents are about to be 90. My father and his wife live in a retirement/assisted living facility. I just got a letter from the place (its a wonderful place BTW) about their coronavirus procedures, measures, and protections. My parents are not panicking. As my father pointed out to me the flu killed 17000 in America in 2017. Who noticed? My sister called my mother and tried to get her to stay at home and wear a mask. Mom wasn’t buying it. Me neither when sis called me and asked me to work on mom.
Remember Ebola? The last outbreak happened on Obama’s watch and conservatives were in huge fear. Here on TNM there was a strongly angry and fearful conservative reaction to Obama’s reactions to Ebola. OK, its a gross disease with a high death rate. But it killed less than 2000 people in 20 years of outbreaks, nearly no one in America. Hardly anyone even remembers it.
Yes politically minded partisan people react in a political manner to all kinds of events, including diseases. Democrats think that coronavirus is a big deal by more than 2 to 1 than republicans. Economically, it IS a big deal, bigger than the flu, though it may kill far fewer than flu in the long run. We are used to the flu, its old news. Not used to corona virus yet. Panic is bad. There is an element of truth in trumps reaction comparing it to the flu. Republicans are going to underrate it and democrats are going to over rate it. If a democrat becomes POTUS and another new virus comes along the behaviors will invert.
Seeing all of life’s events through a partisan political lens is bad. Science, including medical science, should not be political, that is for sure. The flip side of my statistical exercise showing how many (few) people vote in primaries and general elections is that the good news is that most people in America are not actually political junkies or strong partisans and a majority barely pay attention to the daily dither and blather by the opinion leaders on twitter and elsewhere.
Politics is a disease of the mind. Partisan and ideological thinking generally make people miserable, actually. And stupider than they were born to be.
“Politics is a disease of the mind. Partisan and ideological thinking generally make people miserable, actually. And stupider than they were born to be.”
I don’t totally agree, but I think it is true that an excessive focus on politics is bad for the soul, and that extreme partisanship can push certain people over the edge.
It’s a good quote, true in large part.
Politics and ideology are not the same thing.
The principle that humans should be free to choose as they please short of using force against others is the foundation of an ideology. And from it comes both politics and economics and ethics and morality.
You can not separate ethics and morality from politics and government.
I beleive that Madison noted that our constitutional government was for christians, and I beleive by that he meant people with a firm moral foundation. Otherwise governing becomes power games with no moral or ethical foundation.
Flue deaths in 2017-2018 were 80,000 according to CDC
https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017–2018-cdc-bn/index.html
“Remember Ebola?” yes
“The last outbreak happened on Obama’s watch”
And there is now information coming out that the Obama administration misrepresented Eboloa information deliberately.
“and conservatives were in huge fear. Here on TNM there was a strongly angry and fearful conservative reaction to Obama’s reactions to Ebola.”
I do not recall that. My reaction to Ebola was the same as my reaction to this. The odds of any impact beyond massive fear are small.
“OK, its a gross disease with a high death rate. But it killed less than 2000 people in 20 years of outbreaks, nearly no one in America. Hardly anyone even remembers it.”
Generally the more fatal a disease is the rarer it is. Parasites that kill their hosts are frowned on by evolution. That is what I am saying about Covid-19, that is what I said about Ebola.
I do not recall some great conservative panic – here or elsewhere.
The people who are panicking over Covid-19 are the same ones who paniced over Ebola.
“Republicans are going to underrate it and democrats are going to over rate it.”
Again selling that Kool aid that the right answer is in the middle.
I do not care whether you are democrat or republican, whether it is Corona or Ebola.
There are things that should be done – by government even.
By all evidence under Obama it was handled acceptably.
By all evidence under Trump it is being handled acceptably.
The greatest danger of all of these is panic.
You note the economic impact – very little of that is driven by anything real. Nearly all of it is panic.
Further MOSTLY this is less political that you claim.
While it is True that opposing party die hards will attack the incumbent over every disaster.
Most people overall respond the same.
The same people panic.
The same people ignore it.
Regardless of politics
“Seeing all of life’s events through a partisan political lens is bad. ”
Absolutely. And the corollary is that seeing everything as governments responsibility is bad.
If you bring government into anything you bring politics in.
“Science, including medical science, should not be political, that is for sure. ”
Then get government as far out of them as possible.
“The flip side of my statistical exercise showing how many (few) people vote in primaries and general elections is that the good news is that most people in America are not actually political junkies or strong partisans and a majority barely pay attention to the daily dither and blather by the opinion leaders on twitter and elsewhere.”
I have said it many times before – countries with high voting rates are volatile.
Most people do not vote – because nothing involving government is important enough for them to do so.
That is how it SHOULD be. Correspondingly government should strive to NOT give people a reason to vote. Government should be minimal, boring and predictable.
“Politics is a disease of the mind. Partisan and ideological thinking generally make people miserable, actually. And stupider than they were born to be.”
Roby, politics also uses diseases to create safety concerns. No matter the truth or not, safety is also one of the top requirements of government in the minds of some people. People of differing views use safety to create political divisions.
Example: Trump calls democrat comments concerning his actions and the economic reaction to the virus a hoax. They chastise him for calling the virus a hoax. This makes some people to question his leadership and results in some acting like your sister. There is a difference between a virus being a hoax and reactions by others to the virus being the hoax.
This virus can be critical for anyone with significant health issues. Everyone should be concerned and be safe. So what have I changed. Trying to wash hands more. Also, I have driving gloves during very cold weather. I now wear them when its cool and going to stores. What they do is remind me when I start to touch my face, ” dont touch your face”. I am not wearing a mask, I dont look reactionary wearing gloves, but I put them on, dont touch my face, pull them off and then wash.
I can still get it, but thats how viruses work.
Very good advice about the gloves. I’ll pass it on to my parents. Thanks.
I don’t recall any panic over ebola in the US. I think there were some concerns that we brought a few actively ill people here. That was understandable, because there was no treatment or cure for the disease that was, at the time, 100% fatal.
I have no recollection of this becoming a political discussion here at TNM. Just that it was a big news story at the time…
I think that the panic over coronavirus has to do with our lack of understanding of what the hell is going on, due to the lack of adequate sample sizes of diagnosed patients in the US. Right now there are less than 500 diagnosed cases in this country, and less than 20 deaths. That’s a pretty high death rate, unless there are really 10 times or even100 times the number of cases. For all we know, there are people who have, or have had, the disease, and don’t even know it. At yesterday’s press conference, the CDC said that there will be millions more test kits available to doctors and labs, beginning this week.
Hopefully, this will begin to shed light on both the spread and the severity of the disease, and we can begin to understand the real risks of acquiring it.
I also hope that , whenever this is over, we will have finally learned a lesson about being dependent on an enemy nation for pharmaceutical ingredients. Or anything else of importance, for that matter.
The ebola mortality rate is only 50%.
Ebola is highly dangerous, but it is NOT highly contageous. There is no evidence of airborne transmission though it is theoretically possible, but only with Patients in the late stages.
Ebola is transmitted through contact with bodily fluids, Eventually Ebola is in all bodily fluids of the infected person, but in the early stages – when spread is most likely and symptoms are mild only Blood, Feces and urine are contagious, sweat and saliva do not contain the virus until later.
Covid-19’s mortality varies greatly with the age and health of those infected.
Thus far I do not think there has been a single death anywhere in the world of anyone 9 or under, While the mortality rate for those over 70 is atleast 14%.
The mortality rate for people with heart disease, cancer, diabetes and other serious health conditions is higher still. I beleive they have found that anti-inflamatory drugs increase the mortality rate, as well as beta blockers, and anything that supresses the immune system.
Death is most commonly caused by oportunistic infections – pnumonia, that take hold when the Covid-19 has weakened the immune system.
The high mortality rate in the US appears to be entirely from the infection getting into a nursing home in Washington.
Good for Mike, continuing to spend his money on a a just cause:
Funny, Jay, you complain about Trump not being a president of “all Americans” (whose fault is that?), and praise Bill Gates for donating money to the Covid-19 testing effort (good for him, although you ignored Trump’s donation of his 4th quarter salary to the same effort).
On the other hand, you praise Bloomberg for using his vast weath, not for the good of all, but for his own political ends, and call that a “just cause.” (Bloomberg can do whatever he wants, but he obviously doesn’t want to help control the spread of this virus, because he thinks a widespread epidemic, with many deaths, will hurt Trump’s reelection chances)
Your positions are entirely based on your irrational hatred of one man. That’s why they always seem inconsistent.
You remain in Trump Trollop Trance.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21164477/trump-donates-salary-hhs-coronavirus
We all know reporters are idiots and can not do basic Math.
After all two prime time Talking heads told us that Bloomberg could have given every american over a million dollars rather than spend money on his campaign.
They were only off by a factor of almost a million.
But you claim to have a business background.
You know that revenue is not the same as profit.
According to Forbes trump’s net worth as of Sept 2019 is 3.1B.
Trump’s net worth in Sept 2016 was 3.7B
In 2015 it was 4.5B.
this is your idea of “profiting from public service” ?
If The Biden’s were “profiting” like the Trump family is “profiting”.
No one would be asking Questions of the Biden’s.
Dave, the more you post nonsensical opinions the more you reveal your disinterest in deterring the spread of phony information from Trump, but in fact help disseminate it.
Nobody knows Trump’s wealth- because he constantly presents fraudulent numbers for calculating it. Even Forbes, whose numbers you quoted, say their previous estimates of his wealth are unreliable:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chasewithorn/2019/08/14/no-trump-is-not-losing-3-to-5-billion-from-presidency/#3db5ea5f4a2d
“Nobody knows Trump’s wealth- because he constantly presents fraudulent numbers for calculating it.”
The Forbes calculation – like that of everyone else in the Forbes 400 is NOT based on Trump’s randomly varying personal estimates.
If you bother to follow the link, they tell you exactly how they calculated the number – each property and its current value,
Yes, it is an estimate, But it is based on publicly available information – Not what Trump spurted last.
As to your article – I did not claim “Trump Is Losing ‘3 To 5 Billion’ Dollars From Presidency”
I claimed – supported by actual data that Trump’s net worth as tracked by Forbes is declining rather than increasing, though not by 3-5B.
It is actually possible that Trump is losing 3-5B from his presidency.
Citing an editorial is not a credible refuation of that claim – whoever made it.
It is also possible that Trump is making Billions.
But the credible information that we have indicates an order of magnitude smaller losses.
And unless you think he has Drug cartel’s hiding money for him in the Cayman’s The Forbes wealth estimate is likely a good estimate and reasonably accurately tracks changes.
Why am I even bothering ?
You have provided zero evidence that Trump is profitting from being president.
Zip, Nada, You have not even demonstrated that Trump is profiting WHILE being president, which is not the same thing.
I provided you with credible information that Trump is NOT profiting from government.
And your response is to throw out a straw man argument that the claim he is losing 3-5B is false. Maybe it is. I did not make that claim. The forbes estimates do not make that claim.
But this STARTED with you making a claim that Trump is proffiting.
And your proof is some unsource claim about increasing revenue.
Revenue is not profit.
Anyone with the least experience in business knows that.
As the old business meme goes:
Owner: You are losing $5K for every widget you sell.
Salesman: do not worry we will make it up in volume.
Owner: Your Fired!
Hey, Gavin Newsome’s in a TTT too!
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/californias-democrat-governor-praises-trumps-coronavirus-response-every-single-thing-he-said-1491294%3famp=1
Who are we Californians to believe? Yesterday:
“America is the best-prepared nation on earth to deal with the coronavirus.” CA GOP Rep Kevin McCarthy.
“In California, where thousands are being monitored for the virus, only 516 tests had been conducted by the state as of Thursday.” NYTIMES
President Donald Trump on Friday told reporters at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta that “anybody who wants a test gets a test.”
US Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn: “As of Friday at 6 p.m. ET, 5,861 tests for coronavirus have been completed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and public health labs.”
What’s the problem? South Korea is doing 10k per day – over 66-thousand people were tested within a week of its first case. The UK has so far tested 18K people. Even Italy, devastated by the virus, has been testing far more of its citizens. How can the White House claim the coronavirus has been ‘contained’ in the US if we haven’t tested a large enough sample to project how fast or wide it’s spreading?
A terrifying overview of the problem and a rational proposal to gain control of it. Watch the whole thing. It is political, but doesn’t let anyone off the hook.
No link showing to look at after your comment, Priscilla
Ok.. took a while for it to load…
There are times I think Tucker is great. He certainly willing to present arguments that neither the left or the right are prepared to acknowledge. He has both defended and criticised Trump.
There is alot in your video that is quiet good – but there is also alot that is either wrong or where what Carlson implies is wrong and he knows it.
Anti-biotics have no effect on Corona – we have only two means of dealing with virus’s.
Vaccines – we will get a Corrona Vaccine – possibly soon.
Whether we get it “soon enough” depends on whether we can delay the progression of the outbreak long enough. The US may contain Covid-19 as China appears to have. It may successfully stop it in its tracks. We appear to be in the best position of all developed nations to succeed at that. But even if we fail, we have substantially slowed its progress,
Anti-virals DO NOTHING to thwart the spread of the disease, But they diminish the symptoms and they decrease the mortality rate substantially.
There is one existing antiviral that appears to work, and more on there way.
Those are things we can do.
One of the things I fault Carlson for, is his “anti-globalism” theme.
Globalism is complex – there is absolutely an EVIL movement tied strongly to left globalism to essentially move towards world government. That is complete and total idiocy. And very destructive. We can find OPEN expressions of that within the UN and EU and within the upper tiers of many UN organizations like IPCC and within the environmental anc climate change movement.
Improved relations between governments are a GOOD thing. But the growth of quasi-global government itself is more nuanced and with far more evil effect.
At the same time the spread of global trade is one of the most positive forces to benefit humans that has ever existed.
Yet, many – both left and right, have bought into this economic nationalism.
While Trump dances arround it, and talks “economic nationalism” – ultimately his real policies have been “free trade” within the wolf’s clothing of “economic nationalism”
We are also in a weird moment where the politics of international exchange are scrmbling in wierd ways.
The left is strongly adopting Global governance – but NOT Trade globalism – the left actively hates free trade and free trade is one of the most destructive forces against socialism that there is. No nation can easily regulate production in another. Globalism is inherently DESTRUCTIVE of government control – and that is a very good thing. And the left hates it.
The right has generally opposed global governance and supported free trade.
But the right is increasingly embracing economic nationalism – though again there are political complexities – Andrew Yang is just a different permutation of an anti-globalist.
It should be noted that Both Yang and Carlson are fear mongering over the coming effects of AI and automation – as if we did not learn in the 19th century that economic ludism is nonsense. Automation does free massive amounts of labor. But there is no limit to the productive uses we can find for labor. The causes of mass unemployment as a consequence of automation are government interferance. Not the automation itself.
Dave, you define globalism as open trade without controls. But this can lead to putting all your eggs in one basket leading to unfair trade and disruptions in supply chains when the product turns into rotten eggs.
When we depend on one adversarial country that can only produce quality epidemic viruses and nothing else but junk that does not last, we have sold our soul to their whims and diseases.
Global trade need needs to be world wide, not closed. Fair and open.
“Dave, you define globalism as open trade without controls. But this can lead to putting all your eggs in one basket leading to unfair trade and disruptions in supply chains when the product turns into rotten eggs.”
Problems that will fix themselves – if necescary and quickly – if necescary.
“Problems that will fix themselves – if necescary and quickly – if necescary.”
Stupidity at its finest. How people are blinded by money.
“Stupidity at its finest. How people are blinded by money.”
they are also motivated – often highly, by money.
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest. We address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities, but of their advantages”
― Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature & Causes of the Wealth of Nations, Vol 1
“When we depend on one adversarial country that can only produce quality epidemic viruses and nothing else but junk that does not last, we have sold our soul to their whims and diseases.”
If you beleive that – you will stop buying anything from China.
The chinese know that, and they are desparately trying to bring Covid-19 under control.
I doubt they are doing so because they care about the few thousand people who have died.
China deliberately killed that many people over the same time period.
They are doing so because if they do not we and other countries will buy goods elsewhere.
You are under the delusion China has us over a barrel.
Ultimately Consumers ALWAYS have producers over a barrel.
Any advantage producers ever have is temporary.
“Global trade need needs to be world wide, not closed. Fair and open.”
There is nothing made in China today that you are not free to make here or most of the rest of the world.
I have absolutely ZERO problem with you personally opening a factory to make anything currently made in china.
“If you beleive that – you will stop buying anything from China.”
I look at where something is made on packaging. If it is not a consumable, I have stopped buying it. I find one made somewhere else, substitute something else that can do the same job even if its a different product or dont buy it. Things like light bulbs I keep the receipt so I can get refunds when they fail early. If they are going to sell shit, they are going to get the same from me.
And no one has put a gun to your head to make you stop.
You are free, the market is free, you are chosing what you buy from whom according to your personal criteria, not those of some elite in Government or Trump.
I am as opposed to your being prohibited by force from buying from China as I am to your being required to buy from china.
Free and what you call fair are not compatible.
Free means the consumer can purchase a good from whoever or wherever they want at whatever price or quality they can negotiate.
It means that consumers decide what is “fair” by whatever criteria they wish.
Free markets do not involve force.
What you call fair, requires government to overrule the choices of consumers.
It means that you are requiring government to force me to make choices to suit YOU idea of what is fair, rather than my own.
There was an exodus of manufacturing from China – before the trade War,
There is more because of it.
There is more still because of Covid-19.
Some of it is coming back tot he US.
Some of it is going to other countries with cheap labor.
It is likely that major vendors such as walmart Apple and Amazon will look for more diversified supply chains in the future.
It is also probable they will automate more – robots do not get sick.
Free markets are not perfect, but they move endlessly towards perfection.
What you call fair is inherently stagnant, we can not use force dynamically – and we really do not want to try.
All over the world efforts to develop a Covid-19 vaccine are underway.
There are atleast 5 progams in China, and these started before anyone else.
The US already has a vaccine in early trials. It has several more than will be available for Trial as early as mid may through July.
We went through this nonsense that Chian would blackmail the world over Rare earths -which are not actually rare, you can fine them everywhere, but concentrated deposits are rare. China’s efforts to corner the market resulted in discovery of sources in South America and Africa, and Russia. It also resulted in manufactuing shifts to find substitutes.
China produces a massive volume of many things – including anti-biotics.
Btu one should never underestimate the ability of global production to turn on a dime.
Before the era of massive globalization, and in an era where going from zero to full production was much harder than today The US went from the depths of the Great Depression to massive output extremely quickly.
Admiral Canaris’s spies int eh US found the US military production targets of tanks, and planes and ships and presented them to Hitler who laughed at them. He told Canaris that it took him a decade to bring German production to 1/5 those levels, and that there was no way that the US could gear up that fast or produce that much.
Hitler was right – the figures were wrong. In less than 3 years we produced 5 times what Hilter though was impossible in a decade.
We should never forget that that WWII was just a bit longer than 3 1/2 years (for the US).
While there was SOME efforts to gear up before that, the massive efforts did not begin until after Perl Harbor.
FDR did the one smartest thing in his life in response to impending WWII.
He shifted from pretending that capitalism was the enemy to grasping that it was the only possible way to win the war.
I would note that in all of Europe – in the Third Reich and in the UK during the war – production was mostly nationalized. Germans hanged war profeteers, the British arrested people throughout the war for profeteering at any level.
In the US the War Department told the captians of industry what it wanted and sorted out priorities over resources, but ultimately let capitalists figure out how to deliver
No nation ramped up production as quickly as the US. No nation produced a tiny fraction of what the US did in short order.
That was almost a century ago.
The ability of free market capitalism to respond nearly instantly to most any demand is far greater today than 75 years ago.
If the Chinese (or any country) tried to extort or blackmail the US they would not succeed very long.
China ‘took over” global supply of various comodities – they did not concoct those things from scratch themselves. The US and other countries made them in the past, and we know how to do so today. Further China has the other under developed countries int eh world nipping at her heals on just about everything – textiles are already leaving China bhecause they are two expensive.
Between the Trade war and Covid-19 China is going to take a HUGE hit in terms of manufacturing – not because of a temporary supply chain disruption, but because all the businesses that depended on Chinese supplies are diversifying their supply chain.
Moving production back to the US or to India or Vietnam or Thailand.
China can not threaten the world over ANYTHING without concurrently driving the entire world to move production out of china.
Merely talking about trying to use Trade as a weapon in that way is incredibly dangerous.
In free markets ALWAYS the CONSUMER IS KING.
All production is for the purpose of consumption.
Threats by producers GUARANTEE that consumers will find alternate sources quickly.
There are plenty of things China produces exclusively.
There is nothing that China has an actual monopoly on.
I can’t agree with you on this China thing, Dave.
China is controlled by evil totalitarians, who aspire to world domination through economic warfare and military power. They reportedly keep over 1M people in detention camps, where they are forcibly “re-educated.” I’ve linked more than one credible article about the Chinese engaging in the sale of human organs for transplant, harvested from political prisoners. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China
They are attempting to set up a global surveillance network through Huawei, which, if successful, will threaten the security of the entire Western world.
They lied and are still lying about the facts surrounding this virus, and, as Tucker says in his monologue, they have, in the recent past, threatened to withhold pharmaceutical ingredients needed for life-saving medicines, in order to force the US to back off in trade negotiations.
There is no such thing as free trade with a country like China. And one of the costs of doing business with liars and cheaters is the kind of epidemic the world is facing now with Covid-19. A problem created by China, now affecting the whole world, while the Chinese stonewall attempts to get information and use the epidemic as an excuse to ignore their commitments in the trade agreement.
(I know I sound like Chicken Little, but I assure you that I have not bought out my local Target store’s supply of Purell).
There are many bad things about China – further under Xi they have been getting worse not better – ending 40 years of incremental improvements.
I do not think the Xi shifts are sustainable.
It is very hard to put the freedom genie back in the bottle once people have gotten a taste.
But for the moment we have to deal with them as they are.
China did NOT threaten to withhold pharmaceuticals. Some economist in China offered it as a suggestion.
China has far less leverage than you or Ron credit them with.
Global markets do not like threats at all.
Between Covid-19, the “trade war”, Hong Kong and Human rights news, lots of businesses are rethinking there relationship with China.
Trump deliberately hosted Little Kim in Vietnam – it was among other things a message to China.
Regardless, the point is there is nothing made in China that MUST be made in China.
Underdeveloped countries throughout the world would be happy to produce what China is producing.
Even The US can produce many things currently produced in China at competitive costs would greater automation.
Shifts of MFG from china have been occuring for a long time.
But this accelerates them.
The big effect of the “trade war” was NOT the Tarriffs etc. It was the rising number of businesses that started looking elsewhere to purchase goods.
China’s primary competitive advantage is price – specifically labor costs.
But that advantage has been declining as standard of living in China rises.
Further Chinese production comes with numerous problems – though not quite the ones Ron fixates on.
China does NOT have a reliable energy and transportation infrastructure.
Delivery dates for Chinese goods to Walmart and Amazon are “suggestions” not committments. production deadlines are often missed, Further anything made in china must be shipped to the US – that has a cost and takes time. Generally any good that does not have a 15% or greater price advantage is is likely to move back to the US.
Also any good that is made in multiple custom configurations. The Chinese are good at making a million of something. They are not good at making 100,000 or each of 10 variants.
So china is getting hit by US automation at one end, and by developing nations undercutting them at the other.
Finally – every investor int he world tries to diversify. China has given businesses across the world reasons to hedge their bets.
This has been a very bad year for China.
“There is no such thing as free trade with a country like China.”
Of course there is. Each of us is free to buy goods made in china or not.
It is irrelevant whether China is totalitarian or not (in the context of free trade).
It is irrelevant if they are “evil”.
Consumers drive the market not producers.
Just to be clear – I have ZERO problem with people (or companies) choosing not to buy chinese goods – for whatever reasons they want.
I do not disagree with you on most of the problems of dealing with China.
But those are reasons for people and companies to move elsewhere – and I fully expect that some will. And it will take only a small portion to compel China to respond.
Free markets have worked for several centuries – they actually work BETTER as things become more advanced and more global.
Two centuries ago moving a factory was a huge deal. Today companies move factories from one place to another – even accross the world at the drop of a hat.
Look at Covid-19. It used to take years to create a vaccine. Today the RNA was sequenced in a few days and labs accross the world started working on vaccines and antivirals.
The US already has one ready for human testing.
I am not sure whether this will be the moment everything comes together on that.
We could still reach a vaccine “too late” But this is likely the last time we do.
Everything that “almost works” fighting Covid-19 will work much better fighting the next threat – and it will do so even if government does nothing.
Everything is getting faster and faster.
Businesses can move out of China rapidly if they want too.
Ron has talked about the threat regarding Antibiotics and other drugs.
That is a threat you get to make ONCE!
How long do you think it will take to bring up an antibiotic factory in the US, India, Austrialia,
Anywhere but China ?
We used to make antibiotics in the US, in Europe – nothing stops us from doing so again.
They moved because of costs.
Some of those cost factors are labor costs and unions.
But after the company has moved production to China – and laid off its labor pool and shut down the factory. It can if it makes sense – automate the factory and re-open in the US.
We have seen variations of this over and over both with moves to foreign countries and shifts in the US.
The big steel companies in the US were wiped out buy new highly automated minimills.
The big producers could not automate because of their unions.
The new companies could because they were new. They built the factories and opened the doors. Even if they ended up with Unions – the unions could not make them go back.
The point is that in many cases the problems that caused production of many goods to shift to China went away the moment the goods were produced in China.
Us Manufacturers and entrepeneurs are free to open new factories that operate more efficiently and move production back to the US.
And they will do so – if conditions warrant doing so.
If China threatens the markets – production will move – Fast.
Again China has no leverage. In a free market the power is completely int he hands of CONSUMERS, not producers.
Ok, Dave, as always, you make a very strong argument.
I disagree that China has no leverage, though. They have the same leverage as any cheater has, in a game where others are playing by rules. They do whatever they want.
No doubt, this has worked for decades, and now that America has elected a populist who is actively attempting to establish and enforce some re-balancing trade policies, China is ramping up its efforts to keep those policies from taking effect.
And all of the Democrats who agreed for years that a POTUS needed the cojones to stand up to the Chinese, now agree that China is just a pussycat, and Trump’s the meanie.
“I disagree that China has no leverage, though. They have the same leverage as any cheater has, in a game where others are playing by rules. They do whatever they want.”
Until people start to decide to buy elsewhere.
“No doubt, this has worked for decades, and now that America has elected a populist who is actively attempting to establish and enforce some re-balancing trade policies, China is ramping up its efforts to keep those policies from taking effect.”
Whether because of Covid-19, Hong Kong, Assorted Human Rights violations, the declining labor cost advantage, increases in automation, the volatility of the Trade War, increasing diversification, or just not trusting Xi, more and more manufacturing is shifting away from China. Some back to the US some to other countries in asia, some elsewhere.
Actual monopolies are unnatural. They do not exist for long.
“And all of the Democrats who agreed for years that a POTUS needed the cojones to stand up to the Chinese, now agree that China is just a pussycat, and Trump’s the meanie.:
i do not actually care much for Trump’s Trade war. I think it was a mistake. I think the problem will take care of itself naturally, just not instantly. I think the fear of China – with respect to Trade is unfounded. But the Trade war was not a “giant mistake”, The actual net effect has been negative – but only mildly, and he is moving towards freer Trade. And I do not expect perfection from Presidents. Further from a political rather than economic perspective it was a very wise move. Jay quotes polls where Trump’s favorables are under water.
So how does the blue collar voter who is unhappy with Trump’s public persona and really would like someone more pleasant vote ? Does he pick Biden or Sanders ? Or does he say “Well Trump is doing something about China” ?
A large portion of Trump’s policies are highly popular – particularly with those he needs to vote for him.
The vast majority of voters are NOT Jay – who just knee jerk hats everything Trump does or says.
Not only are we politically polarized today, but increasingly the left makes the expression of views they do not like impossible.
Jay literally thinks he can insult people into voting as he wishes.
Robby thinks that he can acheive the same goal by making it clear that he is morally superior.
Why should either be surprised when “everyone they know” agrees with them. Who knows, maybe they actually live in places where everyone does agree with them – pretty much any big city in the country.
I have a poster on my wall that I got 40 years ago – before I got married.
I am confrontational with Jay and Robby HERE – because TNM is a “safe space”.
I can speak my mind to them, tell them what I think when I confront people like them in the real world. But if I bumped into Jay or Robby in a store or theater, I would not say a thing.
But “Silence is not consent”. All would be wise to grasp that.
So you cross post a link to a weak meme from someone whose tag line is “Ann is still european” – Where in the Meme was anything of Substance ?
All the whole thing says is “we are watching” – Great, I expect that.
As to Bloomberg – he spent about as much money as the entire Trump campaign in 2016 and he did not move the needle at all anywhere.
Spending 3/4 of a billion dollars did not make him a viable democratic presidential candidate, it did not negatively Impact Trump – Trump’s approval rating ROSE slowly over that period.
There are myriads of jokes about Bloomberg paying 175,000,000 for each for the delegates he got from american samoa.
Regardless, Bloomberg has absolutely obliterated one of the Huge Democratinc attacks on politics – That Money is the critical determinant to outcomes.
Trump spent Half what Clinton did in 2016 – and won. Bloomberg has spent more than the entire field republican and democrat combined thus far and what does he have to show for it ?
Why should we worry about Steyer, Sorros, Bloomberg – if you are on the right, or Adelson and Koch if you are on the left ? Because clearly something other than money is critical to winning elections.
Regardless I found this clip hilarious. The left that is the protagonist in this clip – the press, the democrats, the deep state have all conspired together for 4 years to take Trump out – and they have failed. You and they are constantly telling us that Trump is a liar and a crook and a fraud, yet after 4 years of anal probing, or relentless press investigations of the US law enforcement agencies and the US intelligence agencies looking to find and if necescary manufacture dirt – you have nothing.
That is YOUR failure – not Trump’s – there is no great cover-up here.
And through it all Trump has continued to push forward on his promises accomplishing more of what he promised than any president I can remember ever.
If this is your idea of success – “Please sir can I have more ?”
“Who are we Californians to believe? ”
Why is that relevant ?
Believe who you want.
Pence announced that 2500 new test kits had been made available to state and local health officials yesterday and the press laughed – bhow effective were 2500 test kits going to be ?
Missing that fact that a “test kit” has the materials to do 500 tests,
So Pence had just announced that health officials had the the ability to test an ADDITIONAL 1.25 M people.
I have no idea who is right about what testing is being done – I doubt anyone actually knows that accurately – BECAUSE federal state and local health officials have been given the resources to do testing of 1.25M people – without checking with CDC or Pence for permission to conduct each test.
There is no central authority to track every detail of every aspect of fighting this.
If there was you can be certain this would explode though the population.
Dave “I have no idea who is right about what testing is being done – I doubt anyone actually knows that accurately – BECAUSE federal state and local health officials have been given the resources to do testing of 1.25M people – without checking with CDC or Pence for permission to conduct each test.”
Well someone needs to tell Gov Cuomo this because he said this morning that NY can not test everyone due to .a shortage. They can not use private and state labs ( guess the ones without C.L.I.A. certification.
But what the “f” is government doing controlling testing of people for disease. That is a decision between the patient and their doctor! Ever heard that argument before?
CDC lifers messed up! Trump gets the blame! Hopefully Trump will recognize the problem of centralized control of communicable disease testing and get regulations changed to allow at least testing at the state control level and let states decide who and hiw its done. The CDC should be advisors if needed.
Once again, government run healthcare at its finest.
Cuomo is right – there is not sufficient of anything to “test everyone”.
What he is wrong about is the need to “test everyne”.
We need to test people who were exposed.
That is far far far less than 1.25 million.
Again
Why can’t they use private and state labs ?
Is someone holding a gun to their head ?
I can draw my own blood and subject it to my patend pending Coving-19 test:
Measure whether the blood bubbles when you shake it.
No one can stop me.
But no one has to trust the results of my test either.
I highly doubt Cuomo is precluded from testing any way he wishes.
So again politicians lie for political reasons? Why else would he say the feds would not allow state and private testing?
just to be clear – I am not saying Cuomo is lying – only that I do not beleive him.
Those are NOT the same thing.
It is actually possible there is some law or regulation thwarting Cuomo.
that is possible, but not likely, but still possible. So the failure really could be with the feds.
But Cuomo is not a voice I trust.
Even most libertarians accept that Government can quarantine you BY FORCE if you have been exposed to a disease to prevent you from harming another by giving them that disease.
Absolutely Government will Fork this up – they always do.
but like law enforcement, it is not a job that must be done perfectly.
We will manage.
The goal is to get the transmission rate from 2 to below 1 NOT to get it to zero.
Jay, according to Cuomo from NY, the tests kits provided by CDC were defective. They told states not to use them. He stated that NY said they had state labs and private labs that could do the testing in automated machines that could do multiple tests. The CDC blocked any state from doing their own testing. And they still have a shortage of.kits, but catching up.
So “IF” this comment is true, then CDC, (government employees, “government”,) screwed up once again. You can blame Trump. I will blame “government” lifer employees. Incompetence!
Use it as an example of government running universal health care!
Get government out of daily life. Unleash private competition! From the federal government running education through “standards” to health issues they screw up. The fed government does little well except the military.
I have a private testing lab about 2miles from my home.
I can go there to get almost any existing medical test.
I used to be able to do this online, myslef but the FDA shut that down – now I have to get a doctors assent to have a test.
But the lab takes my test request and calls a doctor and gets an order for the test.
The FDA has made the process more complex and expensive – though it is still much cheaper (by a factor of 10) than tests by hospitals. In some cases I can pay full price for a test for LESS than the copay I pay if my doctor does it.
To my knowledge there is no Covid-19 test available to buy – YET,
But I fully expect that soon enough.
If this goes on long enough employers and schools are likely to require tests,
Especially if they are cheap, and I expect they will be.
Anything that you are going to make millions of tends to be cheap.
Cuomo says that CDC told him not to used his own tests and labs.
I do not know if that is true – I doubt it. I further doubt that even if they did they have the authority to do so.
There is a giant gulf between the Federal governments power to require something -such as a test. and there ability to prevent others from engaging in non-violent acts.
BTW I have no doubt that FDA and CDC and … will screw this up.
they already have.
But this is not a game that requires perfection.
Beating Covid-19 does NOT require stoping every single infected person from Transmitting the disease.
All it requires is getting the transmission rate below 1,
I beleive the evidence from China is that each infected person infectss 2 other people – without any intervention.
That means if government can prevent just barely more than 50% of transmissions, the disease will die out over several months.
China appears to be past the peak. Rcoveries have exceeded new infections every day for about 2 weeks. the number of active cases is going DOWN slowly.
That is what “winning” means without a vaccine.
Oddly I find more of a government role in this than you do. Border security – including reducing the spread of diseases is a legitimate government function.
As is quarantining people – that is a use of force, and that makes it a government task.
That does nto mean I expect government to do those things perfectly – it is after all still government.
But providing test kits, and medical supplies and treating the infected are all market functions. Not government.
You do the same thing I do. Skim others comments and not read all of them unless there is some key information because I never said anything different than you just said. Safety is the role of government in cases like this. Border security and closing the border if it becomes a problem. Quarantine possible cases. Private control if testing. Where did I say anything different.
Government should play a small role in safety and consultation. Not complete control like they had and screwed up.
Government employs cant even scramble eggs to cook without screwing up.
In this instance I did not skim your comments, and I can not reconcile the first part of your post with the last.
We agree that borders and quarantine are legitimate government tasks.
We agree that government WILL screw up – even these legitimate tasks.
I think we agree that the production of vaccines, tests, medicines, gloves, masks, … is a market role not a government one.
Markets WILL occasionally be surprised.
Further some needs – like a Covid-19 vaccine can not be met instantly even if anticipated.
Markets are much faster at responding today than a century ago.
But epidemics can spread much faster than a century ago.
We will have tests
We will have vaccines
We will have antivirals.
The question is whether we will have them in time.
And the answer is – nothing will be able to do the job better or faster than the free market.
That MIGHT not be fast enough, but there is no better alternative.
With respect to government – I fully expect screwups – here and everywhere else.
Contra Jay the US government is not uniquely more likely to screw up.
In fact the real odds are we do slightly better at most everything than other developed nations. That is why our standard of living is higher.
But government will screw up.
It will do so under Trump,
It will do so under Obama, or Clinton or Biden. Governemnt screwing up is a given.
The question is will it do well enough.
China did not take action into they were already far out of control.
Initial chinese reactions were after Covid-19 was well established in China.
Yet despite this they were extremely successful in containing it and bringing it under control.
There are some techniques they used that we need to think about.
They are effective, but generally beyond what we permit in free societies.
One of the most effective things they did was track every new infections prior movements.
Using cell phone data.
They not only established where that person had been for 14 days. But every other cell phone that got near them, and they quarantined them ALL.
I am not at all prepared to give that power to law enforcement.
Though the NSA likely can already do that.
But I likely would authorize it in the event of something like we have now.
Though this is very very dangerous.
Dave “One of the most effective things they did was track every new infections prior movements.
Using cell phone data.”
Can you link me to the source showing cell phone data. I cant find that and would like to read it.
Thanks
If you search there are several articles on the different measures used by China.
But I can not find the specific article on Cell Phone Tracking.
I might still have it in my browser list.
As I recall is was from a major source – like Politico or The Atlantic,
Though I did find one on cell phone tracking from Aljezera – that was not my source.
This is not getting lots of play because this is the NORM in China.
Cell phone location tracking is not only not private – it is “for sale”.
A bank can have a cell company provide it with data for anyone who has visited a car dealership in the past 30 days, and then send car loan adds to frequent visitors.
BTW in a different article I found that US law enforcement is now sending google and apple GeoFence warrants.
If a home is burglarized and they have no suspects, they send a Warrent to Google for location data for some time window and some area.
The Data comes without Identifying the person.
If Law Enforcement finds a party of interest,
They ask Google/Apple for the persons ID,
Google sends a letter to the person saying the police are after their data and giving them 7 days to go to court to block access.
There are aparently thousands of these being issued.
Ok I did find articles about China cell phone tracking, but nothing in USA. I bet that would be challenged here and gets all the way to SCOTUS before phone companies would ever give out phone numbers of anyone anywhere in the USA and where they were.t
Now if a person was tested positive, they gave the government access to this info and the government found their movement, then I could see public announcements being made that if you were in a certain area at a certain time you needed to be tested, how could anyway object.
I did not say the US was doing this. Only that it is technically possible for them to do so.
The legality is an altogether different issue.
There is some possibilty that congress could pass a law allowing such search ONLY in the context of epidemics, and that MIGHT get passed the supreme court,
Further while I do not think FISA warrants are constitutional, there is no one with standing to challenge them so I do not beleive SCOTUS has ever been asked about them.
You could in theory check the position of the infected person over the past 15 days – with their permission. But then you need to find all cell phones they intersected with and who they belong to – that runs afoul of the 14th amendment.
I would be deeply concerned that alloowing this for epidemics would create a slippery slope that would all too quickly lead to police searches of the same information.
To be effective this must be done very quickly.
i.e. you test positive, your cell information is gathered records are pulled, adjactent cell phones are spotted for the prior 14 days. These people are tracked down ASAP and tested.
If they are negative they are added to the list of monitored people and tested periodically until they can be determined to be virus free.
If they are infected they are quarantined and you start the process over at the top.
This is what China did. While I do not completely trust the data from China – there is alot of evidence they are lying about alot of things Covid-19 related, I do actually think they have it “under control” – meaning the # of recoveries exceeds the number of new cases.
But it is possible this is wrong – after all it is china.
“Get government out of daily life. Unleash private competition! From the federal government running education through “standards” to health issues they screw up. The fed government does little well except the military.”
Hear, hear!
To the extent this can be handled privately – it should be.
But responsibility for borders belongs to government.
And people can only be quarantined by government.
Expect that those tasks will be done badly, but they still must be done.
China has had a total of 80,695 cases as of today. Despite an extremely poor start, the most populous nation on earth has effectively stopped this at under 100,000 total cases.
That is 0.06% of the population.
South Korea, Iran and Italy have lost control – these are small countries with a tiny fraction of the US population, and they have 20 times the number of infections as the US.
The US with 330m people was 430 infections as of today.
That is less than Germany – or France or Spain each of which have less than 1/10th the population of the US.
There are 107K cases globally – of which 60K have recovered – the number of Recovered is increasing much Faster than the number of new cases.
Every day since Feb 21 (except 2) the number of recorved cases has exceeded the number of new cases world wide.
It is impossible to look at how Covid-19 is being dealt with world wide without concluding that the US is dealing far better than Asia, The Mid East and Europe,
And atleast as well as the rest of the world.
Worldwide there are two concurrent strategies taking place concurrently – containment and delay.
It appears China has effectively contained Covid-19. Assuming the data we have is close to correct, Covid-19 will burn out in China in about 2 months if things continue as they are with total cases at most about double what they are now.
It remains to be seen whether other countries manage to acheive containment – but the results in China demonstrate that containment is possible.
The slower the rate of spread in a given country the more likely that country is to acheive containment early. It is exponentially easier to acheive containment with 10 cases than 100 and with 100 than 1000.
The US has not yet acheived containment but it has substaintially delayed the spread of Covid-19.
Delay is also an important strategy. The longer it takes before Covid-19 becomes endemic, the more likely it is that we will have a vaccine and effective antivirals.
“ The US with 330m people was 430 infections as of today.
That is less than Germany – or France or Spain each of which have less than 1/10th the population of the US.‘
Ah, there ya go, back in Trump phony statistics mode. The U S has only tested a fraction of our population compared to others, dummie. We don’t yet know the size or scope of the problem.
Why is that Jay? Did Trump screw up the test kits? Or was it incompetent government CDC employees? Why did they block state and local testing? Why has that been one of their regulations for at least since ebola epidemic?
Geez, cant anyone see the problem. GOVERNMENT! TO BIG, TO POWERFUL!
I do not buy this “government blocked” nonsense.
The CDC can chose to accept or reject the results of any tests they choose.
they can not tell either the state or individuals that the may not use the test of their preference, Only that the CDC will not count it.
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Cuomo-CDC-allow-private-labs-to-test-for-15114970.php
Guess he is lying.
The federal givernment should have no say in who tests, who gets tested, whose testing is used and what medicines are used to treat the disease. That is a decision between your doctor and you.
No one perfect. Mistakes will be made. But in most all instances, government lifers make more mistakes that civilian counterparts.
I dont believe that government does not play a role in safety, but in issues like this the private sector should not be hamstrung.They already screwed up testing in Texas which indicates they are no better than the private sector that they say can make mistakes.
This is not Trump Data, it is JHU data, and the sources and problems are the same throughout the world.
I have no doubt the US has made mistakes – just as every single other country has.
The US HAS identified nearly every infected person coming into the country, and they HAVE quarantied them. Further they HAVE been tracking all of those that were potentially exposed.
And they are periodically testing those.
Todate of over 420 infected people there are only 2 that are unexplained.
That means that only 2 people got this from a source that we have not identified.
That strongly suggests that the US HAS actually tested everyone that needs to be tested.
We have the tests for 1.25 million people as of yesterday. That is far more than we need unless this goes completely out of control – in which case test kits are useless.
Do I beleive everything that CDC FDA, NIH, …. are saying ? Hell No!.
Do I beleive US testing is somehow far worse than elsewhere – Not a chance.
Why is it that you beleive that Europe as an example is far better at testing for this than the US ?
Did they concoct Covid-19 in a secret laboratory in the alps so that the were able to pre make millions of test kits ?
Everyone learned of this at the same time.
We worked out how to test for it at the same time.
We started to produce the test kits – at the same time.
I strongly suspect US production is outpacing that of the rest of the world.
Unless you want to tell me that all the test kits are “made in china” too.
Far more so than you I ASSUME incompetence by government.
But unlike you I do not presume that incompetence in basic government functions or in areas where the incentives are not political, and merely require doing well in a crisis, are somehow different from one administration to the next.
Nearly everyone at NIH, CDC, FDA are the same incompetent people who were they to handle ebola under Obama.
Nor are the government people in the UK are Germany especially more or less competent than the US.
There is no reason to test people who can not possibly have been exposed.
If Trump is handling this incompetently – what does that say for Italy or Germany, or France, or Spain ? Sweden has the population of Rhode Island – and half the total cases of the entire US.
I could care less if you have been personally brief to the degree of accuracy that you want.
I have zero doubt that I could be highly critical of the handling of this by CDC, NIH, …
But they are inarguably doing better than the rest of the world.
Biden drops out!
https://scrappleface.com/blog/2020/03/02/joe-biden-drops-out-of-race-endorses-biden/
It was already predicted that Trump Flunkies would jump on substituting Joe’s acuity with Hillary’s health as their next strategy after substituting Burisma with her emails.
And another example of Trump’s disrespectful name calling adopted by his despicable cult followers.
Everything is not a conspiracy Jay.
The left leaning media has been reporting Joe’s flub’s since the begining of the campaign.
This is not some Rupert Murdock Plot.
We get similar reporting over Trump, but it does not have much legs, because there is no pattern of behavior with Trump suggesting an underlying problem.
Hardly a day goes by that I do not hear claims that Trump is losing it. Flipping out, out of control – and yet when I view full Trump clips, he seems happy, under control.
I also see claims everyday that Pelosi or some other significant Democrat has been trounced obliterated, about to be jailed or hospitalized.
None of these stories hold up either.
The stories about Biden have legs.
Because:
He appears to be slowly declining.
Leaks from his own staff suggest he is “sundowning”
I honestly hope that Biden does NOT have something like Dimensia – I have seen that in many people. I would not wish it on anyone. I know several people who have killed themselves because they were diagnosed with dimensia. I would seriously consider suicide myself if I had dimensia. I would rather have cancer.
Further Dimensia is not the only explanation regarding Biden.
In fact no explanation is necescary.
What is increasingly obvious – whatever the cause, is that Biden is competence challenged.
His “Gaffes” are increasing, and they are less and less funny. and more and more sad.
Even if you presume some republican conspiracy here – and I have zero doubt republicans will try to take advantage of Biden’s gaffes – just as democrats will attempt to do the same to Trump. That is perfectly fine.
Whether this will prove consequential or meaningless depends on Biden.
If this worsens leading to the election – alone it is likely to be a sufficient factor to cost Biden the election.
Biden exactly like Trump will be judged by the people and the media for everything he does and says from now until election day.
And that is how it should be.
Trump did not start this. Nor did his suporters.
You seem to be of the oppinion that only the poor choices and frailties of republicans are news worthy.
Hillary chose to violate federal record keeping laws as Sec State.
She chose to bleachbit those emails.
She chose to send classified information to people without clearances over an insucure internet.
Hilary and the DNC chose to plot against Sanders and to conduct that conspiracy via emails that subsequently got hacked.
Republicans did not cause Hillary to fall trying to get into the car.
Or to leave the 9/11 memorial early.
Biden chose his own actions in Ukraine.
He chose not to recuse himself from matters than involved his son.
If Trump had done these things – you would be all over them – and rightly so.
All these things are news BECAUSE of Clinton or Biden. Not Trump or Republicans.
This is not “disgraceful name calling” – it is problems that Biden must deal with or lose.
“Not Enough Popcorn In The World” For Biden-Trump Debate
Is his skip-out really because he hates corned-beef??
Frankly I think he should attend.
Pelosi’s behavior serves Trump.
Not with Dems or Independents… only with his lock-step zombie core…
dhlii:Frankly I think he should attend. Pelosi’s behavior serves Trump.
Jay:Not with Dems or Independents… only with his lock-step zombie core…
Can you please explain what you mean as it is unclear to me ?
Are you saying I meant something different than I said ?
Or that Trump meant something different that he said ?
Or are you providing your own advice to Trump ?
Is it YOUR View that Trump should not go to events with democrats or independents ?
Looks like a growing number of her constituents have problems with her governance.
But I have no problem with how she looks in a red dress, and if I still lived in her northern Syracuse district (froze my ass off there for 7 years) I’d give her an affectionate big tight hug.
We know – in your world it is OK to threaten others, defame and slur them – so long as they are republicans.
Eh, Queen Nancy would just make a mockery of what should be a bi-partisan event. Maybe she’d tear up and throw Irish soda bread at Trump or something ~ that’s her style. She cannot be trusted to behave in a dignified manner.
Instead, Trump will host Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar at the White House, for the annual Shamrock Bowl presentation.
After Pelosi’s stunt at the State of the Union, Trump shouldn’t bother with any ceremonial appearances with her. Strictly business.
I disagree. Trump should keep his cool. BUT he should provide Nancy every opportunity to make a fool of herself.
It is good for him and bad for her.
Who knows she might throw food at Trump and the Secret Service might tackle her.
In any public gathering if you think there’s a greater chance of Nancy making a fool of herself than Trump making a fool of himself, that’s more proof your judgement is FOOLish.
“In any public gathering if you think there’s a greater chance of Nancy making a fool of herself than Trump making a fool of himself, that’s more proof your judgement is FOOLish.”
Wow, Trump stepped on something on the Tarmac and it stuck to his foot and he did not notice.
Clearly that makes him more incompetent than Gaffing Biden, and more petty than ripping Pelosi.
As to your quote – the opposite is true – by the record. But beleive what you want.
Queen Nancy tearing up SOTU….Childish
Trump New York Asshole personality and behaviors…Foolish
6 to 1…1/2 dozen to the other
You think that compares to pushing a totally bogus ~ and sure-to-fail~ impeachment, and then ripping up the official copy of a presidential SOTU speech, meant to go into the National Archives, because thought it would make her look like a tough mo-fo, when it simply made her look like a jerk?
Ok, then. Great judgement, there…
There ya go again, back in loony mode.
1. Nancy didn’t push the impeachment: she did the OPPOSITE and opposed it for months, for which she was severely criticized by other Dems. Has that slopped out of your memory?
And your assertion that she ripped up “the official copy of a presidential SOTU speech, meant to go into the National Archives” is nonsensical – there were dozens of copies of the speech handed out to attendees at the SOTU speech, including to the media – were all of those supposed to be reverentially handed over for preservation too?
And that torn-in-half copy should be preserved in the Archives as a pure gesture of disgust From a Queen for a Fool – for which she received applause and adulation from the people at large – her approval rating among Dems jumped up ten points at least.
Ah, Jay, you believe everything you read on the Twit. There are not dozens of SIGNED copies of the SOTU, there are only a few, and traditionally, it’s the President’s signed copy, given to the Speaker, that goes into the archives.
In this case, Kevin McCarthy submitted his signed copy, which, going forward, becomes the official record.
Her childish and disrespectful behavior may have sent a thrill up the leg of super partisan Democrats, but it was what used to be considered a “bush league” move ~ lame and low-class.
The copy the president gives the Speaker is “the official copy”
The While SOTU media spectacle is not required.
But the written SOTU delivered to the speaker of the house is REQUIRED by the constitution.
it is childish boorish behavior that is worse than what the left criticises about Trump.
We get Jay, and company complaining about Trump’s bad behavior – where is the criticism here ?
“There ya go again, back in loony mode.”
Insults are not arguments.
“1. Nancy didn’t push the impeachment: she did the OPPOSITE and opposed it for months, for which she was severely criticized by other Dems. Has that slopped out of your memory?”
And then she changed her mind. There would have been no impeachment without Pelosi.
Democrats had to whip their own members to get sufficient support to move forward. There was no majority in the house without Pelosi putting the power of the Speaker behind it.
It was a political mistake, her mistake.
“And your assertion that she ripped up “the official copy of a presidential SOTU speech, meant to go into the National Archives” is nonsensical – there were dozens of copies of the speech handed out to attendees at the SOTU speech, including to the media – were all of those supposed to be reverentially handed over for preservation too?”
There are not many personally signed copies. Several lawyers have observed that her actions absolutely violated the official records act, but that there was no chance anyone would ever prosecute.
Regardless, it was a very stupid move. It made her look petty and small.
But Democrats looked Petty and small through the SOTU.
It was not a “great SOTU” that will mark a turning point in history, but it was a good one.
“And that torn-in-half copy should be preserved in the Archives as a pure gesture of disgust From a Queen for a Fool – for which she received applause and adulation from the people at large – her approval rating among Dems jumped up ten points at least.”
Absolutely it should be preserved.
Nor am I surpised her approval jumped among democrats.
That is not a good comment about democrats.
All it does is tells us there are way too many people like you out there – who are more interested in insulting people than facts.
And you hate Trump because he is a mirror.
And even though I mostly do not like Trump, I get pleasure sometimes from his putting you in your place in exactly the same way you do everyone else.
Amazing how the left thinks people are so gullible. Queenie delayed it because she did not want it waste it with it going on at the same time Mueller and his investigation was occurring and the final report not released.
If you are a shrewd politician, you use one negative political situation at a time, you do not use them at the same time. Mueller did his thing, report issued, they got all the traction against Trump as possible, move on to next negative issue, impeachment. She only delayed it for the best possible use of it. She was never against it.
Now they will use corona virus as the political issue to further divide America to get Biden elected.
Does not take smart people to understand this, just shrewd people who have lived their lifetime learning the tricks of the trade like Queenie.
I am not going to try to mind read Pelosi’s intentions, plans, motives – except to note that I am certain she put thought into her actions – that they were planned and intentional.
Regardless, she made a mistake.
Trump administration has it under control, right?
Good god! It docks tomorrow! They are working on a plan. The plan so far based on Dr. Fauci’s comments is the ship docks, those testing sick will be hospitalized or isolated and the rest quarantined. Where, due to the numbers is still being developed.
They have 24-36 hours. Ya think all those government minds cant at least find enough government locations to quarantine 3500 people around the country.
Those are the same damn people all the liberals in this country want running their healthcare!
One of the problems is that they quarantined those on the diamond princess,
and a federal judge ordered their release.
This is generally considered contageous for 14 days.
The general rule is you quarantine for 150-200% of that time and then release if they test negative.
The judge ordered release after 14 days if they tested negative. That PROBABLY will not come back to bite him in the but, but it might.
Why does this matter to you ?
I am pretty sure “the plan” is NOT to scatter them randomly throughout the country and not keep track of them.
They will be quarantined somewhere, somehow until they are deemed safe or until some federal judge orders them released as they did with diamond princess passengers.
In the 2019-2020 Flu season – estimates are that 31M americans have been infected.
That more than 34,000 have died from the flu.
The impact of the Flu in the US has been MUCH greater that not just Covid-19 in the US or China, but in the entire world.
It would take a factor of 300 increase in Covid-19 globally to reach the level of infections that have occured just in the US.
It would take a factor of 10 increase in deaths for the GLOBAL impact to reach that of the Flu in the US alone.
https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/486424-how-the-media-ignores-pattern-of-democratic-attacks-on-the-courts
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/joe-biden-not-a-socialist-just-a-scoundrel/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/irs-data-show-progressive-plans-require-huge-middle-class-tax-hikes
And MOST democrats don’t want progressive Bernie elected…
Post Trump’s tax cut Revenue has INCREASED.
Will Donald take his own advice and fly to California to shake hands with Americans on the quarantined cruise ship?.
If you are going to take Trump’s tweet litterally it is NOT those on the crusise ship, But those americans who have been infected without travel to foreign countries.
A principled Billionaire, unlike President Putz who’s back at his golf course, piling up more taxpayer dollars into his pockets…
“Bill Gates Foundation will begin offering home-testing coronavirus testing kits in Seattle area that will allow people to send nose-swab samples back for analysis
Results w/in 1-2 days will be shared w/local health officials who notify those test positive”
Thats good news. Should never have had the idiot government controlling testing to begin with. Why are they controlling this?
The article goes on to say “Last week, a laboratory at UW Medicine got approval to begin processing specimens collected by physicians and other health care providers. The Gates-funded project will reduce the need for sick people to visit a doctor’s office or clinic, lowering the chance of exposing others.”
Why the hell was CDC ever set up to have to approve this stuff. And Jay, don’t say Trump becasue all testing has to be FDA approved, even before Trump. So get off that crap!
If you or I go to a doctor and want to pay for a test then the doctor and patient should agree on if, when and who does it. Not the damn government. If the doc agrees to a home test, thats even better. This could have been done last week without CDC being involved. TRUMP DID NOT MAKE THAT ASININE REGULATION. NEITHER DID OBAMA!
But liberals want government run healthcare leading to crap like this and conservatives want to stick their noses into the mess for some other reason, or someone would have changed this ridiculous law years ago.
So if you want this crap top continue, keep voting for the same democrat things like Biden because he is going to expand this crap, not reduce it. Now that Trump knows whats happening, then chances are better that they may be removed since he is eliminating regulations.
.
NO!!!!
If I want to consult my doctor – that is my business – and I likely will.
But if I want a medical test and can pay for it – that is MY business.
As I noted before – for a short period there were lots of tests you could do over the internet (or mail). But the FDA stepped in and now you typically have to go to a lab to get a “doctor” to determine that you “need” the test, and they to “explian” the results.
We tripped over this when My daughter became and EMT.
She had to take a TB test. Well she was born in China, and they use a TB vaccine that can cause you to test positive for TB. And we know she got that Vaccine.
Worse, it will likely test negative the first time – but each time you get tested you are more likely to test positive. So she tested negative when she started school. She tested negative at some later date – but the reader told her it very nearly came back positive.
When she went for the TB test to be an EMT it came back positve.
So the state required her to get a chest Xray – that came back negative.
But that was not good enough for the state. Even though this problem with TB tests and kids adopted from foreign countries – especially china is well known, the state assumes that if you test positive for TB and have a clear XRay that you have it in a dormant state.
So you MUST take a 6 month regimine of pretty obnoxious drugs. You actually have to go to the local health department and they observe you take them. If you do not do this they lock you up. So suddenly instead of being an EMT she is a TB patient – even though pretty much everyone knows she does not have TB.
BUT there is a special blood test that is much more accurate than the standard TB test,
But it is hard to get. The state will not pay for it – even if you test positive. Your health insurance will not pay for it. The state will not give it to you.
It costs $2000 at your local hospital. But we found that there was a “Tests R Us” place 2 miles from our house, They had to special order it, it took 2 days, it cost just over $100, and the results were back in 2 days and she tested negative and the state dropped her from the manditory TB drug program.
PRIVATE TESTING – doctors if you want, but it is your body, you get to choose.
No!!!!!!.
Dave, why did you respond like that. Did I not say govt should not come between the patient and doc?
Maybe this was in response to Jay and not me and WordPress stuck it as a response to me by mistake.
MY POINT is that there is nothing special about the Doctor.
The Government should not come between a person and what they want – so long as they are not harming OTHERS.
If I want to go to my Doctor to consult about some test – my business.
If I want to just go get the test – my business.
OK you have lost me. I thought that is what I said, but maybe I did not.
Whatever, just keep government out of it and let private citizens and private companies do their thing.
If you have a doc, he should be able to test without govt interference.
If Gates wants to provide test, contracts with a lab and they want to do tests, fine.
Why should govt be involved?
Ron, Priscilla and I have been discussing how this is all done best outside of Government and you go and prove it for us.
The gates foundation is a private Charity. It is not government.
I think what they are doing is great.
Gov. Cuomo should get on board.
I would note this is only in the Seattle area (where Microsoft is located).
Many moons ago as an employer we paid every year to have employees and their family members get the flu shot if they wanted.
Aside from being a caring thing to do – it was ALSO in our self interests.
We have to pay for sick time. We also lose the employee if they get sick.
Or if they come to work sick they infect other employees.
A $25 flu shot reduced the number of lost days significantly.
I will bet that most businesses would be happy to pay for Covid-19 tests for employees.
If they test positive – they STAY HOME, and do not infect the rest of staff.
Jay this ones for you since you love government controlling your life.
https://t.co/3CbwhHSGqD?amp=1
Yes!!!
Jeffrey Tucker and Sharyl Attkisson !!!!
I buy my toilets at Habitat, because you can get an old toilet that works, and if you need replace the valves and still have something that actually flushes.
more good government – NOT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/legal-issues/former-acting-homeland-security-inspector-general-indicted-in-data-theft-of-250000-workers/2020/03/06/4a8eb39a-5fd3-11ea-9055-5fa12981bbbf_story.html
More worldwide panic on multiple fronts. This is not good. This is not something caused by US politics. This is something caused by human nature mixed with blind biological evolution of a predator-prey relationship, virus-host and the interrelatedness of the world wide economy. The panic part of it is like the tulip craze. Now there is an oil price war on top of it. The Dow drops 1800 points and a circuit breaker kicks in. Bad events always seem to come in multiples. Society gets sick and more illnesses move in to the weakened body politic, it cascades.
This is not trumps fault. I sympathize with his message that the flu is worse. It is, much worse, medically speaking. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
At the same time this would be a moment for leadership, calm, objective and inspiring, and one cost of trump’s behaviors for the last 4 years is that he is not the person who can do that. He himself has chosen his path that makes him the leader of a populist mob, not the leader of the US. He did not cause this, but he long ago chose a path to be a POTUS who cannot bring out the best in America.
G.W.Bush handled the collapse on 2007 in an intelligent competent manner and prevented an even worse collapse. He had done a lot of very destructive things (and many good ones too), and got reelected in spite of them. Then he handled the crisis as well as he could have, and his party got clobbered over the crisis.
Life is weird. Human mass behavior scares me shitless. Its been a rough 4 years going back to the 2016 campaign. The next period is not going to be pretty. The catastrophe, if there is one, won’t likely be COVID, it will be an out of control highly complex set of events that no one will be able to turn the off switch on until its run its course.
Does anyone remember the game Avalanche? One pulled pieces out of a spring loaded board until one piece was the one that caused the whole structure to collapse. I always see human mass behavior in this light. The pieces of the game are all vast impersonal forces, technology, stupidity, ignorance, fear, complexity, biology.
This may all blow over in a few months and everyone can sober up, put their hair back in place and wonder WTF just happened and why.
Lets hope.
Good post, Roby.
I was in my local Target store yesterday. There were several aisles where the shelves were bare: disinfectant sprays, cleaners and wipes, isopropyl alcohol, hand sanitizer, bleach, vinyl gloves ( also rubber gloves in the housecleaning section, I assume purchased by people who bought them as alternatives to the disposables), face masks, toilet paper ( there were a few packages left, but why are people hoarding toilet paper?).
I guess this run on cleaning supplies and gloves/masks is understandable, but it further inflames the feeling of panic in certain people. I heard one woman demanding that a clerk tell her when the Lysol spray would be back in stock. When the clerk (a very young girl) said she didn’t know, the customer became irate, and accused the clerk of not being truthful.
Granted, this could be a Jersey thing…lots of crazies around here, even in normal circumstances, but its a good example of how things can get out of control very quickly…
And I had a house full of people, mostly ladies, from Ukraine and Armenia (International Women’s day) yesterday and you should have heard the conspiracy theories that China engineered this virus for political revenge on someone. Political absurdity is not limited to our American culture(s).
I keep trying to sell my vast impersonal forces that no person can control theory of mass behavior and historical events, maybe someday it will catch on… It has some relationship to chaos theory, that is, fractals and mandelbrot. Some apparently small and random event winds up having very unpredictable far reaching consequences. Strange attractors exist in the social future, but we can’t understand them because they are not deterministic. We will always be surprised by events getting off the stable course we want them to stay on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attractor
To put it in terms other than esoteric mathematics, picture the steam rising from a cup of coffee or the smoke rising from a cigarette. It would seem the patterns the smoke or steam make should be predictable, after all, they originate from fairly stable and describable systems, and yet no one can possible predict their specific shapes.
Our political and social events are like the pattern of smoke rising from a cigarette.
And yet, as your article notes – while we can not predict the path each smoke particle will take, the behavior of steam, smoke. …. always conforms to larger patterns.
We can not accurately predict what any single actor in the marketplace will do, and yet we can have laws of economics – like the law of supply and demand that are immutable.
I am reminded of Atlas Shrugged – Rand had an intuitive understanding of the economics of collapse. Throughout the novel, government grew ever more oppressive. Each new regulation creating far more problems, and driving the creation of ever more regulations.
And yet throughout the whole story people struggled to overcome the problems to survive and even thrive. It took an enormous amount of bad government to bring the entire system to its knees.
It took the Soviets 70 years to collapse – and even then ordinary Russians were better off than those 70 years before. They were just obviously not improving as fast as the rest of the world.
Obama and Bush were poor presidents and did alot to strangle “the engine of the world”, and yet overall everything was still better at the end of their presidency than the start.
Just not as much better as it should have been.
Even Trump’s 2.5% average growth – is a full point below the 20th century average – but it is nearly a point better than that of Bush and Obama.
The free market is free people struggling for a better life – that is what humans do.
We get knocked down, and we get up again.
The world is chaotic and dangerous – and ultimately we will all die, but when we do, we will have left a better world for our children than our parents left for us.
We should expect that the clerks in stores treat us well. It is their job.
We should not expect them to be omniscient.
My daughter works part time at target while she is in college.
She does not know when things will be back in stock. Probably the store manager does not know.
I expect that you will find that toilet paper and pretty much anything that could be anticipated will be back on the shelves quickly.
Contra the panic – the free market is actually pretty well prepared for these types of things.
And Better today than ever before.
We had this nutso panic over Covid-19 Testing kits.
1.25 million were delivered late last week, there will be 2 miillion by the end of the day today, and 4 million by the end of the week. There are 566 cases as of today in the US.
There were 31 million Flu cases so far this flu season.
Most businesses know that their ability to meet peoples needs in times of panic buys loyalty forever. Our law makers bemoan “price gouging” – while every Denny’s in the country has a multi tiered disaster plan that provides people with food – for free, even if it is only sandwiches and coffee
Walmarts stock up on milk and strawberry pop tarts. Home Depots stock up on plywood and generators. Stores pre-positions supplies just outside of the disaster zone so that they can bring them in immediately as soon as possible.
This is no different. Everybody will rush out and panic buy, the shelves will be restocked, and that will re-assure people that the stores will meet their needs. We might buy a 14 day supply of toilet paper and milk we are not buying a 6 month supply.
And we will barely notice that the panic is for naught, that our needs get met. that life goes on.
Increased testing good for people.
Increased testing bad for economy and administration
Testing will lead to increased numbers of new cases
People positive will get treatment faster
More stock market downturns, more people separation, less economic activitry, admin to blame
Increased testing will lead to identifying and either quarantining, isolating or monitoring new cases – reducing spread.
Ending this sooner.
This is simple – all the psychological impacts – are short term.
Further no matter how severe they are – they are MORE severe the bigger this gets.
Nothing is accomplished by hiding anything – not in China, not in the US.
The truth will ultimately get out.
If the truth is worse than people were told – those trying to supress it will at the least lose credibility
If it turns out less bad that we are told – those exagerating will lose credibility.
There is some wiggle room as this is unknown – bit it is not infinite.
Trump is not facing some OTHER crisis at the moment. It is best to deal with this as accurately as possible NOW – whatever that is, rather than have it hang over his head for 8 months.
Testing BTW is a very important tool to stopping this FAST.
There is a pretty good youtube video on this from 3blue1brown.
Diseases like many other things follow a “logistic curve”
That is two inverted exponential curves linked at an inflection point.
Absent massive lying – China has likely reached the inflection point.
The quicker the US can reach that inflection point the faster this ends and the fewer cases and deaths we see.
Reaching that inflection point requires reducing the spread.
Once we can reliably reach the point where on average each newly infected person infects on average LESS than one more person – we have control and this will end.
We can get a clue from the new cases per day.
New Cases per day appear to still be rising – in the US.
Though so far not at the rates of other countries.
We missed the best shot – stopping this at the borders.
While MOST cases are still of people traveling abroad.
We still have a few cases of transmission to people who did not travel abroad.
With each exponential increase this will become harder to get control over.
Though there are complexities. Because with time more resources become available.
There were too few tests initially, but there were 1.25m by the end of last week, 2m today and 4m by friday. If we can stall long enough a vaccine will become available – but we do not know how long.
Further no virus hits 100% of the people.
We hope to avoid this scenario – but for every person infected the spread actually slows.
Those effected can not get it twice. Getting this and recovering is essentially the same as being vaccinated. Once the number of already infected and infected and recovered is high enough the rate of spread slows and ultimately stoops.
This years Flu reached 31M people – not 330m
The Chinese managed to stop this at about 100K people in a nation of 1.6B and about 80K people in a city of 15m.
Even if those numbers are wrong – they are not wrong by a factor of 1000.
China took more draconian measures than we will.
But they also started behind the curve.
We are not there yet.
If I tell you that yesterday there were 100000+ cases and today there are 114,000 cases, what is your response?
If I tell you that there are 114,000 cases with 47,000 active, what is your response?
If I tell you in China there are 80,000 cases , 58,000 recovered and 18,000 active, what is your response?
Option 1 is what every media outlet is reporting! THE SKY IS FALLING! WE ARE GOING TO DIE!.
Option 2 provides some soothing info. This us seriius, use some precautions, but use your head.
Option 3 provides encouraging info. In a population of 1.4 billion people, 15,000 active cases is a flee bite. That could create over competence for us since we cant take the draconian actions the Chinese can take. No one is going to close down NYC or Washington D.C., Blocking anyone in or out.
The average reporter was educated in a public school and if we are lucky has a journalism degree. They avoided every class on math they possible could. Likely took no college math.
Do not remember anything from high school past 6th grade math.
And that is just their lack of any basic math education.
In college they were likely rewarded for spouting the correct views, not doing quality research or being able to write accurate english sentences.
The fundimental concept that journalists report the facts, not spin them. That the place for poetry and opinion is on the op-ed page not an interview of a CDC doctor is completely alien to them.
So no – I do not expect much from the average journalist.
John Solomon is an excellent journalist. Read some of his reporting.
He is incredibly clear about facts, except in opinion peices he does not draw conclusions, and even in those he makes it clear when he has drawn a conclusion.
He allows the facts to speak for themselves, and he gets his facts right.
His reporting is not dripping with adjectives. Again he allows readers to draw the conclusions.
But because he reports “inconvenient truths”, he has been labeled a fascist, and a right wing nut – if you label him perjoratively then people will know not to read him.
My point ?
As with everything else in the world, you must evaluate those you deal with, decide who to trust.
I pay alot of attention to those – left and right who provide facts and allow me to draw my own conclusions. Or if they state oppinions – they are clear what part is oppinion and the support oppinions with argument and fact.
The press is like credit and credit ratings – when reporters habitually spin rather than report facts, when their straight news contains more oppinion than news, When instead of reporting what a person actually said they have to tell me what they meant. Then that journalists credit in my estimation goes down – as does the media that they are on.
So there is not alot of traditional press I follow.
I am finding that the internet has made myriads of sources available.
I do not need reporters to tell me nearly as much – I can go to the CDC, ot John’s Hopkins.
I can go to the web pages of pre=eminent virologists and economists and constitutional lawyers. So why would I want to go to Fox or CNN, or NYT ?
Dave, you going to John Hopkins is good. Your informed.
How many voters are doin that?
You dont care what others do.
I do. That is how we got stuck with Obama and Trump.
We all know that people from Jersey are not smart enough to pump their own gas.
Lol!!
I love not having to pump my own gas. Especially in bad weather. I never actually did it ( my husband always did it, when we were driving out of state) until I started driving my kids around to look at colleges. First time, I pulled up to a pump outside a small convenience store in PA, I just sat there, until my son said “Mom, what are you doing?,” and he taught me how to pump gas.
So, I was a grown woman, with a college aged son, before I ever performed that relatively simple task….
When I first started Driving I had a service station my family frequented.
Back then they pumped gas, washed your windows, sold you your tires and rebuilt your engine.
Bob made sure my family and our business got gas during odd even rationing.
He would call us up when he got a shipment in and tell us when he would open – so that we could have all our vehicles near the front of the line when he opened.
When I went to college – Bob made sure my car was in good shape before the trip.
But more than just taking care of us, he also taught us to take care of ourselves.
Attendants pumped gas then. Bob expected me to pump my own gas. over time to check my oil, and other fluids, to wash my windows, to know the license plate of my car. I still have the license plate of my first car memorized.
Bob had a beautiful 1930’s MG, and a few years after I got married while out on one his rare rides in it, he was hit by a truck and killed. I attended his funeral. The station was sold, and torn down. and it is a sports field for the local college today.
Robby,
While I understand your dark perceptions. they are false.
This is bad – people will die, we have a desparate need to do something about that – but in reality there may be little or nothing we can do.
This is much like Gun control. We WANT to act, to prevent the death but the reality is that it is unlikely there is anything we can do, and near certain that the things we are trying to force will make things worse.
The world is not perfect, or fair, and we can not make it that way.
At the same time it is very important to remember that
We live in the best moment of human history (except tomorow). There are almost no problems that are not better today than a decade ago, a century ago, a milenia ago.
Pick any issue that divides us at the moment – the entire world is less racist than ever before, The US is less racist than ever before – perfect ? No! but radically better. When I was in college no one admitted to being homosexual, you would lose your job, you could go to jail.
Now it seems almost everyone I know is openly gay, and frankly I am “gayed out” – it is not that I have a problem with Gays – but does EVERYTHING have to celebrate gay everywhere all the time. Transexuals are significantly less than 1% of the population. The vast majority of us really do not care. If you do not like the body you were born into – you live in the only time in human history you can actually do something about that. The evidence fairly strongly suggests that there are always other problems – that gender dysphoria is probably a symptom not a cause – but if you are an adult and you want to do something that was never possible before – you are free to do so. But this does create all kinds of other societal problems, and the answers are neither obvious nor commonly agreed on. Issues like public rest rooms, and sports, and when is a child old enough to decide to change their gender, and what is the states role in all this. We do not all agree on this, and it is not reasonable to demand that everyone do whatever it is that Trans people think they want – just because.
Regardless, you died for being Trans in most of the rest of human history. Today you might not get your choice of bathroom.
The world is better.
No Covid-19 is NOT some advance in the preditor/prey duality.
It is essentially a bad cold. It has unreasonably terrified us – because it is new and kills people. In a month or 12 there will be a vaccine and we will likely never see it again.
Further though we appear to be just a bit short of having all the peices in place it is clear where the future lies. We are very near being able to rapidly create anti-virals and vaccines quickly just from the genetic code of the virus. Another peice of science fiction from Star Trek comes to life.
Are we there ? Not quite. But everyone should be able to see, we are not all that far away.
We will probably be there “next time” – and there will be a next time, there always is.
But next time will be a fizzle, we will barely hear about it.
I told you sometime back to go watch Ken Burn’s vietnam – 50 years ago we were rioting, killing each other in the streets, burning down the cities, blowing things up.
That was a period of far greater political division.
Our political division today is “much adieu about nothing”
Trump is not a nazi, he is not a fascist, he is not the antichrist, Nor is he the savior.
He is an slightly above average president with the good fortune to follow 2 pretty bad presidents.
We will not merely survive Trump – we will thrive and be better off.
The sky is not falling,
The wolf is not here.
All our problems are not solveable – they never have been, but the problems we have today our ancestors would have begged for. We are not starving. Violence worldwide is lower than it has ever been.
But we do not control everything – we can not prevent people from dying. Ultimate we all die.
That will always be true.
I don’t take your There is no… statements seriously.
The darkness is not our inevitable individual deaths. I understand risk analysis. I was a so-called environmental engineer and we were given a very solid lecture by the state epidemiologist on risk analysis that I understood and took to heart. Most people have no ability at all to reasonably rank the risks they are exposed to and make rational choices. People on the left are worse at it than people on the right. People on the left tend to believe that we should live forever (while they smoke their substances and blacken their lungs) and that evil corporations are constantly trying to kill them for profit. I’m not one of them. I posted the numbers on flu deaths. I understand risk analysis.
The darkness does fall at times in history. It is events like the Napoleonic wars, WWI, WWII, its 9/11, its the depression, its crash of 2007. Its not likely the end of the world but its the end of some worlds for some people.
Whether this present set of events dampen their oscillations soon (I hope) or head to all sorts of wild extremes before they run their course is not something that I or you can know. If you predict it will not get out of hand, you may be right, but only by accident because you cannot know the future.
Of course it is good to be calm and rational and objective, but the “nothing is really happening here folks” line, from you or from trump, is also not actually rational. Something that is unusually strongly negative is happening, worldwide. Ask the Dow.
I said it before and will say it again.
This is Trumps black swan.
He could be “Reaganish” and become the clam but eloquent speaker.
He could stay “Trumpish” and be the asshole he is.
He could be “Carterish” demonstrating calm before the fireplace in a sweater.
He could be “Clintonian” when ask if this is a pandemic he responds “depends on what the definition of is is”
Whatever, Biden is the next president.
Way early to say that, Ron.
The news cycle is so fast these days, this whole panic attack could be forgotten in a month, if some new tragedy or scandal breaks.
Plus, I honestly don’t believe that Biden is physically or mentally fit
for the job. He has good days and bad, but on his bad days he certainly appears like someone with early dementia ~ wandering around, looking confused,, forgetting things, etc. There’s already a conspiracy theory that the Dems will nominate him, and then have him withdraw for health reasons, allowing the party to choose the nominee.
In any case, I agree that the current situation is bad, what with the epidemic and the stock market and having the Saudis and the Russians pick this particular moment to have a price war.
It all has the potential to destroy Trump’s presidency, but I think that it’s far from a certainty.
The long term impact on the stock market will be the lost production and disrupted supply chains.
If people do not go to work – they do not make things of value.
If people do not leave their homes – they do not consume things.
Certain industries – anything that gathers large numbers of people for something like entertainment are likely to get massacred.
Retail sales will be reduced if people opt to reduce their trips to the store and postpone purchases the do not need.
The “panic” effects will ultimately only be short term.
Well if sensible people could not see that Putin is not Trumps friend and Putin is the enemy of America, maybe what happened over the weekend will open their eyes.
Saudi’s go to OPEC and ask for production cuts. Putin see opportunity to kill shale production in America once and for all and refuses, tells Russian producers pump all you can pump. Prices fall below $30.00 a barrel before coming back slightly. Shale producers need $45.00, break even point.
That send shortwaves through Wallstreet, stocks fall over 2,000 points, before recovering slightly.
All of this designed for one thing. Fear and panic in America. Undermine the government. That is the sure way to change administrations.
So now when will (stupid) people begin asking why does Russia want Biden as president?
Russia want’s Biden as president?
I thought they want Trump or Bernie?
Jay, you might want to see a doctor. I believe your mental acuity is slipping.
Anyone can see Biden is the nominee given his surge and his polling numbers in upcoming primaries. He may only get 55% of the vote instead of 60% and he might lose one of the smaller states, but he will be the nominee by going into the convention the leader and then the supers will put him over the edge.
Russia want anything other than the current administration. Once Biden is in then they will begin planting seeds of distrust of his administration.
And they also know if Biden is president, he will shut down fracking and shale oil, making their exports much greater, driving up oil costs and increasing their income.
Why is that so hard to see?
“Why is that so hard to see?”
Why do you expect people who could not grasp that Clinton was far closer to in Putin’s pocket than Trump – both personally and in terms of policy to realize that Biden is preferable to Trump for Putin today ?
The entire Trump/Russia collusion narative was abjectly stupid from day one.
Why exactly does Putin want to help someone like Trump’s whose campaign promises are nearly all antithetical to Russias interests ?
Why exactly would Putin get out of bed with Clinton to get in bed with Trump ?
But we have heard the nonsense that Trump – rather that the creator of Russian Reset and Russian Reset 2.0, of hundreds of millions of Russian money to the Clinton Foundation, or Uranium One, of 500K to Mr. Bill, is somehow the Russian Asset.
Russia does not know what it wants – beyond de-legitimizing our system.
“All of this designed for one thing. Fear and panic in America. Undermine the government. That is the sure way to change administrations.”
An attractively simple theory, but it overlooks the many reasons Russia could have for doing this that have nothing at all do with our election and everything to do with the maximizing the value of their own greatest economic resource, energy.
Everything is not about the 2020 election, not even for Putin.
Roby, I agree with you. I believe I responded to jay that if Biden is elected, energy policy will change in this country that hugely impacts Russian oil income. They get a “two-for”. They get economic positive impact and they get continued divided American public. Then they continue to plant seeds of distrust for 4 more years. Who know who will be running in 2024. Biden at 82 may not be an option.
“Everything is not about the 2020 election, not even for Putin.”
Absolutely. Not now, not in 2016.
The Saudi’s tried to take out US Shale production more than a Decade ago – they failed.
They drove prices down to $19/barrel and suspended a significant part of US production. and put some Frackers out of business. But ultimately they could not kill Shale Oil, and the moment they allowed prices to rise again the frackers came back.
I have repeated here over and over and over again – natural monopolies can not exist, that there is no historical example of successful predatory pricing.
I do not know what Putin and the Saudi’s are doing. But I do know that they can not beat the market. The best they can do is temporary.
BTW how is it that cheaper gasoline will “undermine the government” ?
This ultimately works no better than your argument regarding China.
Russia and the Saudi’s can shutdown nearly all US Oil production. But they can only do so by providing US consumers with an endless supply of CHEAP oil. Further though the out of the ground cost for Saudi oil is quite low, it still must be shipped to the US.
So Frackers have a higher out of the ground cost, but lower transportation costs.
Regardless, the moment that the Saudi’s and russians let prices rise again – the frackers will be back in business.
All this “unfair trade” you bemoan comes at a price to those engaged in it,
it can only continue so long as they can deliver greater value to consumers.
It does not matter whether we are talking oil or tools, or latex gloves or antibiotics,
Your evil unfair trading partner can only “own” the market so long as US consumers get the lowest possible price. Failing to do that returns production to the US or elsewhere quickly.
Further that problem is not only permanent – but ultimately they must constantly go lower still.
Because there is always some american looking for a better way.
If it is possible to produce something cheaper/better in the US – it will be produced in the US. Whether that is steel or oil or cloths.
And there will ALWAYS be people trying to do that.
Priscilla.. re: above your comment that’s Nancy’s copy was headed for preservation:
“The National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) preserves and provides access to the permanent records of Federal Agencies and the President in accordance with laws and regulations that govern the disposition of those records,” the agency said in a statement. “NARA will receive the President’s version for preservation as a permanent record in accordance with the Presidential Records Act.”
Trump’s copy was meant for preservation.
What happened to his signed copy?
Did he carelessly toss or lose it?
You can not read. That is NOT what your quote said.
They declared what they will do AFTER THE FACT, in this instance.
While I doubt that the Presidential records act defines some other copy as “the official copy”.
The constitution requires the president deliver the “state of the union” to the House.
The “official copy” is the one the president provides to the House – the one Pelosi tore up.
I absolutely agree with you – that moment was a part of History and it should be preserved.
Pelosi should be remembered forever as the speaker who in a fit of pique tore up the SOTU.
No one is going to prosecute Pelosi. Under the circumstances there is no real harm – except to Pelosi’s reputation. There are many signed copies, and the president can sign more.
We live in the era of computers – unique special originals do not exist any more.
But that does not alter the fact that the constitutionally required document was the one Trump handed to Pelosi. The speach itself was not constitutionally required. Personal copies were not required – and likely for much of the 19th century – the president handwrote a copy and someone walked it over to the speaker of the house.
Pelosi absolutely tore up the “official copy” – that said it is NOT like she tore up the only copy of the Gettysburg address. She tore up the official copy under circumstances where it can be replaced.
We should not be making either more or less of Pelosi’s actions.
She absolutely intended them to be significant – and they were.
You say democrats supported her.
Well you can not credibly concurrently argue that what she did was insignificant and significant at the same time.
Colin Kaepernick does not get attention for kneeling at home.
We judge him based on a powerful symbolic act of kneeling during the national anthem while on national TV. What he is doing is SIGNIFICANT
We just do not agree where it is SIGNIFICANTLY GOOD, or SIGNIFICANTLY bad.
‘What happened to his signed copy?
Did he carelessly toss or lose it?”
He presented it to the Speaker of the House.
It is the Speaker who extends the invitation to the President to deliver an address to Congress. Even if the Speaker does not issue an invite, the President still must, according to the Constitution, update the Congress with information on the state of the country, from “time to time.”
Many presidents in the past simply wrote the report out, and then sent it to Congress, by addressing or presenting it to the Speaker of the House. More recently, in the TV era, the SOTU address has become a yearly event.
In this case, Trump behaved in a manner befitting the presidency, by following protocol and respecting the government’s traditions and laws.
Pelosi, behaved in a manner befitting a spoiled and vindictive toddler.
It’s really that simple. You’re overreaching to try and defend her bad behavior. Doing exactly what you always accuse Trump supporters of doing.
On the positive side of March 9 2020, Sanders revolution appears to be winding down and may be over by tomorrow.
“But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain’t going to make it with anyone anyhow”
Well, that is how it should be anyhow. Fifteen years after John Lennon wrote these excellent words Bernie, in his mid 40s was an enthusiastic hard working member of a Marxist Leninist party. F****** idiot. I have no more respect for neo Leninists than I do for neo nazis. Millennials seem to have no clue who Lenin was or why he was a catastrophe.
You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it’s evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don’t you know that you can count me out
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
All right, all right, all right
You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We’d all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We’re doing what we can
But if you want money for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
All right, all right, all right
You say you’ll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it’s the institution
Well, you know
You better free you mind instead
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain’t going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don’t you know it’s gonna be
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right, all right
All right, all right
I’m a neo-Lennonist myself.
Going skiing while rome burns.
So please tell me what the democratic party stands for if not marxism ?
Marxism-lite ?
It the marxist label bothers you – lets frame it in terms of values.
Do democrats stand for Class conflict ? Racial Conflict ?
Democrats have by choice deliberately taken ownership of “identify politics”.
That is often painted as “standing up for the little guy” – which sounds nice and even often sounds like a moral obligation. Except that Government is NOT an advocacy group – it is not a charity, it has a duty to treat us all EQUALLY under the law. Because government is force, it is power, and we are not universally free to use force – not even for the “oppressed”.
There is no fundimental difference between marxist class struggle and racial struggle, and sexual orientation struggle.
All of these are inherently good things – OUTSIDE OF GOVERNMENT.
There is nothing that the democratic party stands for that is distinguishable in form from marxism.
So Bernie is more overt.
One parting shot for the day before I head outdoors.
I do blame the press for a lot of this panic on the American side of things, although the American MSM did not cause the worldwide panic that has been occurring. I am reading their coverage and a lot of it is about dinging trump and not about putting this situation in perspective with balanced information. trump is not helping here, he is the last person I would want as POTUS at a time like this, but the much of the press is being actively irresponsible and destructive. Lemmings, group think.
If a year from now it turns out that COVID really was a serious health threat and a truly substantial number of people die I will have to eat these words. But I find very little that I would call objective balanced coverage of these events in the MSM. Its a feeding frenzy. Its disgusting. It is something like the bad MAGA hat kids press fiasco, but with much larger consequences.
There are ~330,000 000 Americans. ~3 000 000 die every year. in fact, between 15 000 and 100 000 die of the flu depending on the year. Death is sad and terrible, but we do have to be able to make a rational evaluation of risk. Blowing up the stock market and the economy in a panic and harming a lot of people’s economic lives is a serious thing too, and an avoidable one.
I may rant at the press – but I do not blame them.
It is the nature of their job to foster anxiety.
If it bleeds it leads.
No one reads news stories about how rosy and wonderful things are.
I do not care about the Trump bashing.
I think it is counter productive.
This will have an outcome and it will be well known BEFORE the election.
Many factors will effect how Trump is graded on this.
But how much the press ranted at him will NOT be one of those.
Voters will judge based on the real long term outcome – not the speculation of today.
I do not think this will be the defining moment of the Trump presidency.
But it could be.
The press is certainly trying to push that narative.
But there will be a reality – in a month, two, eight.
And that is what we will judge.
I actually think that both govenrment and private actors are doing the best they can.
But this is hard and mistakes are ALWAYS made.
I also beleive it is likely that they will get control of this fast.
Though I am less sure about other parts of the world,
And frankly if too much of the world gets it – the US is screwed no matter what.
We can not stop this if it gets into mexico in a big way.
And there are other factors – the vaccine being tested could prove safe and effective and be available in a few weeks – that is not likely. It also could be 9 months – that is also not likely.
The truth is inbetween. But the sooner the better.
We all agree, the press exaggerates everything.
But exaggerating COVID19 appears to have had a positive effect: the germaphobe inducing news has ALERTED the nation to take the recommended precautions; we now are among the nations with the cleanest of hands; that probably will reduce the numbers of infections from normal flu as well. So will numerous decisions of worried people to self-quarantine (contrary to Dumb Donnie’s advice) – like this GOPer, apparently ignoring his great leader:
Follow up question:
Why are people like Collins who came in contact with the CPAC attendee doing self quarantine instead of getting a coronavirus test? Wouldn’t it be helpful to everyone he’s been in recent contact to know if he contracted it?
The CORRECT process is for those who may have been exposed to avoid others, self monitor, and get tested until they are clear.
But if you are exposed you WILL NOT test positive instantly.
It takes time for exposure to develop to infection – and they usually does not happen.
The unhindered spread rate is 2 – each infected person infects 2 others – not 1000.
Not everyone they come in contact with.
The control goal is to get the spread rate below 1, then it will die out naturally on its on.
Collins is behaving wisely.
If after a few days he tests negative he should self monitor. Get tested again if he gets any symptoms but resume his normal life.
There is lots of advice being given. Much of it is generic for colds and flu’s.
Todate the primary spread appears to be through direct contact with fluids from an infected person.
The spread rate is NOT actually that high.
We are not being told this – but it is likely that people are NOT getting it indirectly – ie. an infected person touches a door knob, then you touch the door knob, then you touch your face. But that is not certain.
Beside the germ panic we have all developed will likely radically cut down on spring colds and thwart the flu. We may fail to contain COVID19 and yet have the overall death rate go DOWN due to better hygene.
It is highly unlikely that people who have merely been exposed are spreading it – though we do not actually know that it is impossible.
I would also guess that peopel who encounter Collins at CPAC already know.
But Collins probably has to be actively infected to spread the disease.
I.e. he has to test positive even if he has no symptoms.
Do the salutory effects outweigh the harms ?
Maybe not.
If Growth is reduced by 0.5% due to panic – then we are ALL worse off than we would have been otherwise.
It is unlikely we will get the balance perfect, but ultimately everything has a cost – including avoiding Corona Virus panic.
Lets say that for every 1m man hours of effort we put in we can reduce Covid19 deaths by one. Should we do that ?
The average human lifespan is 700K hours, so to save one person we are consuming the lives of 1.3 people – that should make it clear it is not worth it.
But if you can not accept that – at what point do you allow someone to die – 1m hours 5m hours 100mhours ?
Further whatever time you spend saving one person – that is time that could have been done creating some other value – something many others would benefit from – like curing some forms of blindness.
I do not know the correct answer here – possibly no one does – though likely all too soon we will.
Buit the argument made below is maybe we should give up containing Covid19 – the cost is too high. And focus our resources where they will be most effective – protecting hospitals and the elderly and nursing homes. This is arguably doable. We can reverse quarantine them.
If those at high risk did not venture out into the world much over the next 2 months and we otherwise let it run wild, this would all be over quickly.
If every school child in the country got COVID-19 and still came to school – it would go almost unnoticed. The symptoms in children are minor and thus far no one 9 and under has died.
Very few people under 70 have died – and all those deaths have been in people who have serious health problems. We do not have to “let the vulnerable die” – but we do not have to spend billions and tank the economy to protect them.
I am 61, and I had a lobe of my right lung removed as a young adult. While I am in good health otherwise – this is something I should be careful to avoid.
I work from home. I plan on doing more of that for a couple of months. I am going out less, and being more careful when I do. My kids are 21 and 23. They really do not need to do much. If they get this it will likely be less debilitating than the flu. they can even continue to work while they have it.
People older than I am are not even working. Their staying home costs the economy little.
I would further note Covid19 will remain a future threat until:
A vaccine is developed
Or a significant portion of the population gets it so that natural immunity thwarts its spread.
We could beat it today and have it back in 6 months – if we do not develop a vaccine or natural immunity.
https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-and-the-economy
You say Collin’s is defying the advice of one of the most famous germophobes int he country by “self quarantining” after exposure.
You have proof that Trump has vigorously opposed to that ?
In February he reportedly “flew into a rage” because a plane with Covid19 infected people was allowed to land in the US.
Trump has urged caution – not panic.
So what is your source ?
I am just looking for one single objective article that calmly and rationally explains why we should be in near economic collapse and cancelling flights for example right and left over COVID when we react calmly to flu? Or should we be having a similar reaction to flu and shutting everything down every year? Just one objective science based article, I have not found it yet.
Lacking that I guess I have to figure the answer out for myself: people in the US have been exposed to flu for a very long time and nearly everyone has some antibodies to some form of it. Whereas COVID has not yet deeply penetrated the US and it would be better if it didn’t. It might have some worse characteristics than we are aware of at present. Still, the state of hysteria seems to be absurd as I understand things now.
CNN ran a gotcha piece with a headline something like: “Trump did not even know that people die from the flu (except that seems to be totally incorrect!): His own grandfather died from the flu.” For god’s sake, I loath trump but that is some seriously petty bullshit, having somebody search medical records of trumps ancestors to find one who died of flu. How many people do not know what one or more of their grandparents died of?
It was my very liberal 89 year old father who brought the number of annual flu deaths to my attention a week ago to explain why he is not terribly concerned. Was it wise when he said it but stupid when trump said it? Its relevant no matter who says it. I see nothing about that statistic in the MSM (although I have not done an exhaustive search).
I understand that no one (other than trump) in a position of responsibility wants to be the one to say that COVID is no big deal. Fair enough. But all the same the flat out omission of valid context in the form of the flu mortality is a form of deception.
Roby, finding something that is factual, scientific and easy to understand will be impossible IMO.
As I said many comments ago, all of the individuals that were giving information on the disease and safety precautions were infectious control experts and in other medical fields. They were programmed for years to provide medical facilities, professionals and administrators with worst case situations that they may face. So the first information anyone received in the media was worst case and it generated panic.
The CNN, MSNBC and others picked up on the panic and used some of the information that just gave enough to keep people anxious. Fox changed slightly, but still did not go far enough. Print media did the same.
I went to Lowes today to get some paint stripper so I can remove the polyurathane on cherry kitchen cabinets and restain them as over the years the sun has bleached one side. I had on gloves, the lady mentioned them since it was 65, I explained my face touching and she said Lowes can not keep construction and paint face mask in stock. As fast as they get them, they sell out.
I think this is due a lot because the media fails to adequately inform the public. They want this Trumps black swan. I mentioned China having 80’000 total cases, but now has 15,000 active. If people knew these numbers, reactions would be far different.
If your old, have other medical issues, this can kill at a high rate. If your old and healthy, it can be serious to dritical, and can kill. If your younger, the greatest majority will just be sick, unless there are other medical issues. If your in school, the odds of getting it is greatly reduced since kids seem to be dodging this somehow worldwide.
You can model this very accurately with 2 factors – uncontrolled and 3 factors if you are going to try to control it.
1). The spread rate. The information I have seen suggests that is about 2 – that is each infected person infects two additional people.
This is actually not a constant it is a curve. the larger the number of people infected the SLOWER the spread rate (because there are fewer uninfected people to spread it to).
2). the Mortality rate (or curve as age is a factor)
3). the degree to which public health measures can reduce the spread rate.
If you can get the spread rate below 1 through quarantines and testing and mointoring and …. it will burn out. The lower the spread rate can be driven the faster it will burn out.
Based even on worst case guestimates, this is unlikely to kill as many people in the US if uncontrolled as the Flu.
Further there will be huge overlap in the people that it kills.
i.e. You can not add the flu death rate to the Covid19 death rate
Many of those killed by Covid19 would likely be killed by the flu but for Covid19.
Most of the information sources have numerous incentives to spin this as more serious than it is (short of panic) as the more seriously people take it – the fewer people will be killed.
Based on the data i have actually seen thus far.
If you compare COVID19 to the flu – It is somewhere between 3 times and 30 times as deadly, But it is somewhere between 1/2 and 1/10 as contagious.
We are getting terified by the numbers we are seeing – but we forget that the 2019-2020 Flue Season has been about 4 times as long as the time we have seen Covid19 and just in the US 31m people were infected.
At the same time note – that is ONLY about 1/10 of the US population, though many people were vaccinated against the flu.
the Chinese have only have about 80K cases in 3 months.
They are probably lying – but not be a factor of 1000
They have also taken draconian steps to stop this.
Regardless, this is OBJECTIVELY far less contagious than the Flu.
But it is more deadly – possibly much more deadly.
This falls part way between the Flu and ebola. Ebola is incredibly deadly – killing 30-50% of those infected – even strong people. But Ebola is actually much LESS contageous It requires direct contact with specific body fluids of an actively infected person and then transfer to a mucuous membrane.
I am not trying to dictate what we do.
But trying to explain what most countries are trying to do:
It is generally worthwhile to try very draconinian measures on a SMALL number of people – airline passengers, cruise ship passengers, … at the very early stages to try to stop this early on when it is relatively easy.
The more people become infected the more difficult it will be to gain control and the broader the containment measures must be.
China appears to have acheived containment with a broad isolation of 15m people, and a more rigorous quarantine of 100,000.
I do not think any other nation in the world can get away with that.
So the rest of the world must stop it sooner or we must give up and let it run its course.
Though trying to delay and hoping for a vaccine is an intermediate option.
The US is still within the scope of being able to stop this by strict border control, and monitoring/isolation of those who get infected in the GP.
Italy, Iran and South Korea may not be able to bring it under control without Chinese measures.
But the final option is to invert what we are doing – instead of trying to protect the general population, work to protect those with the greatest risk of dying.
A “reverse quarantine”
“lock down” hospitals, nursing homes, Tell those over 65 or those with health issues to STAY HOME and not go out. and then let the disease run its course through the population.
But it is very hard to protect hospitals and nursing homes – and we have already seen what happens when this gets in one.
And ordinary people do not want to hear – that for the overwhelming majority of people this will not be as bad as the flu – and that your odds of getting it are much lower and we are just going to let it run wild.
Again objectively – based on China and assuming as appears to be the case that China is on the downhill side of the logistics curve, US deaths if this ran totally wild and we did little to protect hospitals and nursing homes would be about the same as the Flu or less.
But all of this is caveated by the fact that the best information we have comes from china, and how much are you going to trust that ?
In an earlier post I guestimated the spread rate and guestimated the mortality rate.
There is enormous questions about both those numbers and we will not really know them until a country with a more trustworthy public health system works through this.
But I said before we could model this.
For any given spread rate and any given mortality rate or curve – we could model very accurately the progression through the US uncontrolled.
Dave, I am agreeing with most of what you say about this, its number based scientific and rational. I agree and also have the opinion that COVID is a competitor of the flu and will find the same victims. Anyhow that is how it seems as of today.
This is one instance I will clearly state the odds are that I am WRONG about just about everything Covid19 related.
The extent of known information is just too uncertain. The largest body of data is from China and it is near certain that data is distorted.
BUT all that said – it is possible to GUESTIMATE what I will call a “likely” worst case scenario. In the US that appears to be about 15M infections and about the same number of deaths as the Flu – though these will not add, as Covid19 infections and deaths will displace Flu deaths and infections.
So far this does NOT seem as infectious as the flu – we are more SCARED by it, and it is not under control. But the numbers from China would have to be off by a factor of 1000 for this to be as infectious as the flu.
It also SEEMS this is between 3 and 8 times deadlier than the flu – but mostly for vulnerable people. Those in good health appear to have MILDER symptoms than the flu – or even none at all.
But again all these are guesses based on what we data we see.
I have separately said – we do have enough information to model this.
Because it does not take much.
A covid19 model would quite litterally be a version fo the famous “life” program from the 1970’s that everyone studying computer science had to write atleast once.
And you can try different numbers for spread curves, mortality curves.
I would also suggest that there is a different pattern based reason to suspect that my guestimates are close.
Evolutionary rules do actually come into play.
As a rule of thumb the more contagious something is, the LESS deadly it is.
Diseases that wipe out their hosts are evolutionary failures.
Ebola has a very high fatality rate, and is scarry as shit – but it is actually very hard to catch.
If Covid19 is deadlier than the Flu, then the odds are its spreads more slowly and less broadly.
“I think this is due a lot because the media fails to adequately inform the public. They want this Trumps black swan. I mentioned China having 80’000 total cases, but now has 15,000 active. If people knew these numbers, reactions would be far different.”
Yep. Here is a link from my world. Not so technical that most people with a little biology under their belt can’t understand it. Doesn’t exactly answer my number 1 question, why are we panicking, but I at least know where to go to read something rational from my world.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mutations-can-reveal-how-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret
Believe me I want trump gone! But I don’t want trump gone so badly that I want a catastrophe to be the reason for it, he should go because of his own wretched character and decisions and behaviors, not because the country is in a state of emergency over something that he did not actually cause.
Every president has to face some black swan moments at some point in his tenure. Shit happens. trump has had good luck up till now that it has taken so long for his unpredicted crisis to occur, unlike all the other crises that he brought on himself (and us).
Whoever is president will get the blame for something like this – no matter what.
I do not think there is evidence that Trump is handling this badly.
But that does not change the fact that he will get the blame.
BUT I do not think this will effect the election much.
It is very very scary now. But the longer this goes on the less scary it will be.
The two likely scenarious are it is brough under control long before the election – in which case Trump will get credit – whether he deserves it or not.
Or this runs through the world like a somewhat deadlier version of the flu.
The longer it lasts the less panic there will be and the more we will think of it like the flu.
The biggest “threat” to trump is we have been dancing on the edge of a global recession for a long time.
While the US is best situated to weather that recession. Covid19 could be the straw that tips us into it.
The panic effects on the stock market are irrelevant – the panic will pass.
But lost production and consumption is gone.
I do not think that will be catastrophic, but the global economy has been pretty weak for a long time. Only the US has been strong in the past 3 years.
I know they are not exactly the same thing, but I found the observation that the mutation rate was 2-4 times slower than the Flu interesting.
It is highly likely that the mutation rate and the spread rate are tied together.
There is good reason to beleive the spread rate for this is “two to four times less than the flu”
Bernie should be running with this.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/09/james-biden-health-care-ventures-123159
Trump Jr. vs. Hunter.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/trump-jr-wants-to-debate-hunter-biden-on-whos-benefited-more-from-their-dads/
https://www.jpost.com/International/Texas-based-company-claims-to-have-developed-coronavirus-vaccine-620364
There was already an announcement of another vaccine starting testing.
Regardless according to this article the time from NOW to use by humans is dependant on how fast government can move.
According to the article – animal testing could be done in a month.
If the end of the year is the earliest it can be available for the public, that means the government wants almost 9 months for human testing.
So Jay – your the head of the FDA, there is a vaccine. It is based on past vaccines that have had no problems.
Lets assume that it is going to work – because there is always the possibility that it is not effective.
How much testing are you going to do ?
FDA Fast Tracked the Swine Flu vaccine, and just under 500 people were parallyzed as a result of a reaction to the vaccine.
BTW Every vaccine causes harm to a SMALL number of people.
There is no such thing as perfect.
As this is a vaccine – you are giving it to otherwise healthy people.
So your choice is the risk of harm from the vaccine vs. risk of harm from Covid19.
You could short cycle the human testing widely deploy this and in 3 months radically reduce Covid-19.
Or if there are broad negative effects – you could stop Covid19 but harm more people than you would if they got infected with Covid19.
Or you could wait until the end of the year – by which point it is likely too late.
Jill Stein Is A Lying Bitch.
https://twitter.com/yair_rosenberg/status/1236703747344150530?s=21
Jill proves, (like so many on the far left) that you don’t actually have to have a low IQ to be an imbecile.
The shots at Biden from left and right are a compliment to Biden. He is winning, the moderate lane of the Dem party is winning, the left and right are beside themselves. I love it. If Biden can derail both the bernie and trump revolutions he will be a hero to people like me.
If he gets nominated, accepts, and choses as Amy Klobuchar as his VP then the moderate dems have won and bernie’s imbecilic movement will be back to the drawing board. These left wing nuts are never going to go away completely, but l have high hopes that their influence has hit its peak and will now wane.
I will take every attack on Biden as proof that trump and his party are scared.
BTW the GOP already had a 2 term president with early dementia, and he is their hero to this day and even pretty well liked by a wide group of Americans. Good old RR. And if they were truly concerned about the mental state of the POTUS they could always chose someone other than trump.
From what i have heard Stacy Abrams is already locked as Biden’s VP.
But other pundits claim that ANY Democrat must pick Sherrod Brown as that would flip Ohio and that would give Democrats a shot at winning.
Yes, things like the possibility of Dimensia are reasons that we elect a vice president too.
There has been massive speculation about Trump’s mental health over the past 4 years too.
But it does not have leggs, because there is no pattern of decline and because with few exceptions Trump’s “gaffes” really do not fit the patter of mental decline.
Biden has a long history of Gaffes – if he did not there would be no doubt right now.
Regardless, unless he can radically reduce his Gaffe Game – and I do not think he could do that even if he did not have issues, these questions are NOT going away.
Further – though we do not have answers – and probably will not get answers – until well after the election, the speculation DOES have a reasonable basis.
And no – these are not a compliment.
Biden is near certain winning the democratic nomination.
Front runners ALWAYS get more scrutiny. Yes, there are plenty of the left and right who would push this whether it was true or not.
That does not change the fact that it is a legitimate question, and it is not likely going away.
Of course Trump (and Sanders) and anyone who does not want Biden is going to attack him.
Just as You and Biden are going to attack Trump.
It does not prove Biden is winning (against Trump).
You can just as easily paint this as “running up the score”.
Reagan did not show signs of Dimensia until very late in his 2nd term.
When Reagan got onto Marine One for the last time he was younger than Biden will be on inauguration day.
Reagan did not exhibt the signs Biden has now until well after he was out of office.
It is possible that Biden does not have Dimensia.
That may not be much of an improvement.
Do you want a president who makes simple errors like this all the time and is constantly fumbling for words ?
Lets pretend that this is just “normal” for Biden.
That is not that much of an improvement over the Dimensia story.
There is only one way this goes away. That is Biden manages the next 9 months with very very few gaffes.
Every single time Biden stumbles, this will come up again.
He has not done well facing mostly softballs todate.
This is only getting harder.
If you are certain he is up to this – fine. We shall see. You might be right.
But putting this to bed requires a Biden no one has ever seen.
Fumbling for words?
Absolutely both candidates are going to be confronted over their age and of issues related to that.
I think your video is wonderful. In fact I think it is endearing.
You are free to perceive it however you want.
But I see nothing in there that is not just tongue fumbling that all of us do, and those of us who speak alot do alot.
Biden is not mis pronouncing words.
He has a historical problem with stuttering – he is not alone in that John Stossel has the problem severely. Stossel has talked extensively about how he copes.
Biden’s lapses are not related to stuttering or accomidations to stuttering.
They are not about how he SPEAKS, they are about how he THINKS.
Trump did not go off into some bizarre story about a kid stroking his leg hair.
Biden is not mangling Words, this strongly appears to be cognitive not verbal.
it nearly perfectly matches what my father who had vascular dimensia went through as it progressed.
But beleive what you want.
We have great candidates in both parties.
One has a sharp mind, but is a total liar so people have no idea what to believe vs
Another that his handlers have to limit appearances to around 7 minutes because they have no idea what he will say.
Just today Biden told someone who asked him about “taking his guns”.
That he was not taking anyone’s guns, and the “viral video” of Biden announcing that he would make “Make No Mistake, I am coming for your guns” Beto ORourke Gun czar was “a lie”
I do not think this was a cognitive lapse.
I think it was more representative of the fact that Biden has told so many lies regarding Guns to so many different groups that he can not keep them straight anymore.
Some forms of dementia are hereditary.
Trump’s father suffered severe dementia.
Over the past two years DOZENS of doctors, psychologists, pathologists have publicly commented on Trump behavior indicative of cognitive decline, providing a long list of cumulative examples symptomatic of Mental decline, including “poor memory, word finding difficulty, slurred speech, linguistic decline, irritability, depression, mental confusion, lack of restraint, inexplicable lying, poor occupational performance, impaired judgment and paranoia.”
View at Medium.com
There are many forms of dimension, some have hereditary components.
Trump’s father died some time ago, I would be suspicious of a diagnosis that old.
Doctors and pathologists DO NOT diagnose cognative impairment.
Regardless there is a standard test for Cognative imparement.
The MOCA Test. Trump has taken it and passed.
You can find it online and take it yourself.
As my father declined his MoCa scores declined.
Anyone without cognative impairment should :”Ace” the MoCa – it is NOT an intelligence test,
it is merely a test that determines if various regions of your brain have disruptions.
It is also not a personality test.
Finally, no doctor, pathologist, psychologist may ethically diagnose anyone without their being a patient.
So you want us to trust a doctor who is violating the ethical rules of their profession ?
Regardless, this is a stupid game – we might as well just diagnose all politicians as sociopaths over the internet – they probably all are.
Biden’s problem is NOT that some partisan – Whether Trump Sander’s or Stein is claiming he has problems. But that he is exhibiting behavior that is troubling to all.
AND IT IS GETTING WORSE.
You esentially make the same claims about Trump all the time.
You claim that whatever your flavor of the moment critique of Trump is disqualifying.
As yoou have been told repeatedly – you get that choice in the voting booth.
And the rest of us get that choice regarding Biden in November 2020.
Trump WILL have to answer to voters in Nov. 2020 for every complaint you have about him.
And voters will decide if that matters.
Biden is facing the same thing.
What are you afraid of ?
That voters will judge Biden more harshly ?
BTW while Biden is showing some signs that could be dimensia,
ALL of these candidates are old enough this shoudl be a concern.
As should their health, Bernies heart attack, ….
All of these are factors voters get to weigh.
“ From what i have heard Stacy Abrams is already locked as Biden’s VP.”
Hearing voices again?
Like the ones who whispered to you Biden was a goner after the first primary?
This was from well placed democratic political consultants.
I would not pick Abrams.
Aside from the fact that she is a black women. I can not see why she would appeal to Biden or democrats.
But Biden is free to pick who he wants – whether his choice makes sense to me or not.
Regardless, you confuse facts with oppinions – AGAIN
This is ONE of the many articles on Abrams as Biden’s VP choice.
https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-joe-biden-stacey-abrams-vp-54472f8f-5bb2-4d1f-bc7c-0544a09ebba5.html
Yes, I am “hearing voices” – of real people, speaking to the media.
I did not express an oppinion on Abrams as VP.
But claiming she is not a leading contender – not MY leading contender, but one being actively discussed by Biden and democrats is “hearing voices” – is either a lie on your part or delusional.
Maybe you need to take the Moca.
“Hearing voices again?
Like the ones who whispered to you Biden was a goner after the first primary?”
What world do you live in ? Certainly not the real one.
I have not said “Other people told me Biden was a goner” – i do not think ever.
I PERSONALLY said “Biden is a dead man walking” – and not after the first primary – but after the Ukraine call transcript many months earlier.
Absolutely he is a far more successful zombie than I would have predicted.
MY ERROR! – not some voices.
Do not attribute to me – crap YOU hear on Fox, or Crap you hear others say someone on Fox said.
My oppionions are MY OWN, My FACTS are correct.
If I am right in an oppinion – I get the credit. If I am wrong it is my failure.
When I attribute something to others – I am clear about it.
Democratic pundits said Abrams was the VP.
I have no skin in that fight.
I do not care.
But it is a FACT that many democratic pundits – including some in the Biden campain have said Abrams is the likely VP choice.
That does not make them right.
But it does make me ABSOLUTELY right when I say they said that.
Top three I have heard. Kloubachar, Harris, Abrams.
So who beings the vote.
All three women. No advantage.
Kloubachar white. Does not bring the black vote.
Harris, black, from CA. Biden needs no support from CA. Republicans dont even need to vote in CA.
That leave Abrams. Black, female, southern where swinging Georgia democrat could be the difference in electoral votes needed. And Georgia is fast becoming bluish purple with all the northern liberals who have moved in. Very much like N.C.
Re Ron: “Another that his handlers have to limit appearances to around 7 minutes because they have no idea what he will say.“
Says who?
“Says Who ?”
How many different links do you want ?
This is not some secret fringe story. It is all over the place.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-15/biden-backers-want-prevent-sundowning-gaffes-senior-moments-threaten-2020-run
I appreciate you providing that link as confirmation.
Thanks.
It’s reassuring to see the sources for information upon which you base your opinions.
Keep up your excellent assembly of facts, from dubious Donny supporters.. who provide speculation emitted from their neither extremities… faux news disguised as fart news.. Impressive!
I have no problem with Zerohedge, but they were not my Source.
But you demanded proof, and rather that rack my brain as to which democratic talking head on show said that. I googled it.
I came up with thousands of hits.
Zerohedge was the first one.
Do you want another couple of dozen ?
BTW the links I provide you are not going to tell you much about my sources, or thinking.
They are going to tell you what was near the top of a google search when you demanded proof.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
I am sure that you will fixate on the claims that ZeroHedge is “alt-right”.
But consider the source – CNN.
As to banning – the list of libertarian or libertarianish sites that have been banned at one time by Twitter or Facebook is as long as my arm.
All getting banned by most social media means today is that you offended some snowflake social justice warrior.
ZeroHedge’s twitter ban was for identifying a doctor involved with Covid19 in Wuhan.
Oooo!.
Regardless, they were just top of the google list.
Which suggests that google finds that LOTS of people follow them.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/joe-biden-2020-strategy-to-limit-gaffes-talk-less
And there are more. Just look up “Biden limits speech lenght” Not difficult
Isn’t vanity fair an alt-right fake news site ?
Jay is not going to be happy with you !!!
Jay has graduated to add hominem by association with an ad hominem target.
So many Trump gaffs, but I’ll finish with a few recent other ones of note:
Calling Hurricane Florence “one of the wettest we’ve ever seen from the standpoint of water”…
Referring to the “oranges” of the Mueller investigation repeatedly when he meant “origins”…
Talking about the “floors of the forest” when discussing wildfires and saying that the president of Finland told him they “spend a lot of time raking and cleaning” their forests…
Calling Apple CEO Tim Cook “Tim Apple”…
Referring to 9/11 as 7/11…
Saying that noise from windmills causes cancer…
Telling a crowd that “the kidney has a very special place in the heart”…
Why am I to accept your claims that Trump said something ?
Maybe he did, but you are certainly NOT a trusted source.
If you have ever been arround anyone with actual dimensia – there are patterns to the types of errors they make. They do not mostly make the types of errors Trump makes.
I make those types of errors. My wife makes those types of errors, We have done so all our lives. My Daughter makes the kind of speaking errors Trump makes – we call what she speaks “ruthlish”.
Biden is not making pronunciation errors, or wasting words.
He is completely going off the rails and unable to get back on.
Regardless, Time will tell.
We should ALL pay attention to Trump for signs of ACTUAL decline.
We should pay attention to Biden too.
Biden has been declining just during this campaign.
“ Biden has been declining just during this campaign.”
Nonsense.
Not a big Stein fan.
At the same time – pretending that you know one way or the other here is disingenuous.
On the one hand Biden has a very long history of some of these Gaffe’s.
They could mean little or nothing.
One the other they appear to be increasing in frequency, and increasing in severity.
There are a variety of forms of dimensia. They progress at different rates.
Most are not treatable. Many can only be confirmed by decline and death.
So there is likely no way to know whether this is some form of dimensia, or just Joe being Joe.
Biden is the oldest candidate.
My father had Vascular dimensia – which can be diagnosed and proceeds fast.
Much of what I am seeing in Biden is what I saw in ,y father past early but before mid stages.
I honestly hope Biden does not have any form of Dimensia – it is a horrible way to die.
I do not wish it on anyone.
But pretending there is no reason for concern is nonsense.
If Biden were not running for president – this would be a matter solely for him and his family.
You accusing Stein of being a liar is priceless hypocracy.
Wasn’t Carter page a Russian Asset ?
What happened to that Trump/Russia collusion ?
Are you STILL going to try to tell us that Comey and his gang at FBI were honest decent people ?
One thing is absolutely Certain.
Joe Biden is highly unlikely to survive a debate with Trump.
Clinton did badly.
Biden faced no serious challenges in the Democratic debates thus far.
He fumbles questions from reporters – often friendly ones, as well as from friendly voters all the time.
Whatever is going on – absent Biden magically changing, the questions will get worse.
This is from yesterday. Hard to watch this, and argue that “Joe is just fine.”
Huh?
What ink-blot ‘ covfefe‘ reading did you get from that exchange?
Question asked. Biden response.
Really, I’m not getting your point???=
Do you think that his answer was relevant to the question? Q: “Was your answer to the voter inappropriate? A: “I’m surprised that Sanders is joining Trump.”
That makes sense to you?
Unfortunately Priscilla that just looked like normal politiicians dodging questions.
Biden looked evasive not incompetent.
Fair enough. I see a confused old man, who doesn’t know what to say, so he just says something.
I really do hope Biden does not have a problem.
At the same time I am seeing lots of troubling things in his conduct.
I just do not see much in the 2A and today’s clips that says Dementia.
I think the 2A clip is damaging. I think if Biden can not handle queries like these more diplomatically he is going to have even more trouble getting elected.
This was not a hostile reporter. This was an ordinary person, who tried to engage in an intelligent discussion about something he cared about.
There is apparently enormous pressure on Sanders to drop out – because that allows Biden to adjust how he campaigns to mask much of this.
You didn’t make the obvious logical jump, Priscilla? Makes perfect sense: a perfect response to a ‘do you still beat your wife’ leading question asked by another ‘do you still beat your wife’ questioner. Trump & Biden, on the same anti-Biden page. PERFECT!
Btw, did you see the exchange between Biden and that 2nd Amendment hardhat union guy? Biden summed up the US moderate gun control position held by most Americans— and did you hear even the slightest sign of cognitive dysfunction in Biden’s reply? No, but you did see the kind of get-in-your-face response he’s going to show Trump at any debate Dumb Donnie is stupid enough to mouth off at Biden.
His new slogan; Battling Joe Biden! He’ll Kick Trump’s Butt!
The question asked by the factory worker was pretty reasonable, as was his follow up.
Biden did not merely evade, he chose to be confrontational with someone who was looking for an honest clarification about conflicts in Biden’s expressed positions.
Biden’s response was to attack the worker, to accuse him of lying – about real and multiple videos of Biden talking about confiscating guns. and to ask him to rumble.
That was bad conduct and when Trump goes half so far you make it sound as if it is an impeachable offense.
The reporter the next day asked a leading question. Wow! – That is pretty much what reporters do all the time today.
I would prefer that reporters asked less “how many times have you beaten your wife today” gotcha questions. But that is not how the world works. Have you ever bothered to listen to the questions asked of Trump ? Frankly compared to the norm, the reporters question was pretty tame and closer to appropriate.
Biden responded by answering a different question. That is pretty much ALWAYS what politicians do. Does that bother me ? Yes, but it is not something new or special – not when Biden does it, not when Trump does it, not when Schiff or Pelosi or Schumer does it.
Frankly the reporters question and Biden’s response gave some appearance that Biden was sharp enough to duck the question – that IS a sign of mental accuity.
One of the big reasons many people are questioning Biden’s competence is because he is NOT following the norms of political deflection – especially when questioned by ordinary people, not reporters. He is becoming angry and he is responding by insulting the questioner and then by ranting nonsense. If he just did the political norm and answered a question other than the one asked he would be fine.
The only thing that looked really bad regarding Biden on the 2nd clip was that he seemed extremely tied. But he probably is, Campaign’s are a relentless grind.
while I agree with much of what you say about the reporters question – noting that is pretty much the norm for the media today right or left,
I look forward to your saying the same good things about Trump and bad things about the reporter next time some reporter asks Trump a “did you beat your wife today ?” question.
Something that happens to Trump dozens of times a day. ‘
Most hear on TNM continuously tell me that elections are about appealing to undecided voters in the middle.
“Battling Joe’ – looking to take persuadable voters into the parking lot for a rumble is NOT doing himself any favors.
I have criticised Priscilla because these SPECIFIC two recent events DO NOT show signs of dementia – though others do. That does not mean they were good encounters.
You seem to think that candidates will get elected merely by checking off the majority position on each issue. Forgetting that the majority on Guns, the majority on abortion, the majority and healthcare, the majority on … are NOT the same people.
If Biden loses 100,000 persuadable voters over his position on Guns – it is irelevant whether that is a majority position or not.
Clinton could not handle Trump in the debates.
You really think Biden can ?
If you think Biden is going to do so well in debates – then lets see LOTS of debates.
Lets get real debates – where mostly they get to address each other. Get the moderators mostly out of it.
This as well as the 2A Kerfluffle from yesterday do not demonstrate incompetence on the part of Biden.
But they are evasive, mis-representative, bullying and deceptive.
In this case Biden lies and deflects. refusing to answer, answering a different question.
That is extremely common among politicians. they all do that. Trump does that. Jay calls it lying every time Trump does it. I can not hold Biden to a different standard than every other politician.
The 2A conflict yesterday was much the same.
Biden did not handle himself well in either. The 2A video is politically damaging. Biden needs these peoples votes. This is just a different form of his “go vote for the other guy” response.
No candidate for any office can win an election if every person who disagrees on any issue votes against them.
Jay Claims falsely that there is broad support for Biden’s 2A positions – while that claim is false it is also irrelevant. Biden needs strong support from as much of blue collar white male labor in rust belt states as he can get. He does not have the luxury of blowing them off.
Many like Jay are praising Joe’s 2A confrontation yesterday – because they support a strong anti-2A position, But winning elections requires finding a way to get the vote of those who do not agree with you on everything,
Biden may not have lost votes over his competence yesterday.
But he likely lost voters he will need over the way he confronted a voter who was otherwise likely a supporter.
Please explain to me why government “will let patients put medical records on smart phones”?
The key word is “let”
Why was government controlling this to gegin with?
What is wrong with this “free” country when we allow government to tell us what we can and can not do with personal data?
I understand regulating what others can do with data like HIPPA. But I sure dont understand acceptance of govt “letting” us put it on our own smart phones.
https://khn.org/news/new-federal-rules-will-let-patients-put-medical-records-on-smartphones/?MessageRunDetailID=1457764388&PostID=12382004&utm_medium=email&utm_source=rasa_io
I have a problem with Hippa.
It should not be necescary. It should be replaced by a constitutional principle.
Your data is YOURS, The fact that you share it with your doctor, your bank, your cell company should not make it readily available to government or anyone else.
To be clear I am not Opposed to sharing data. Just asserting that the DEFAULT is that is your property, and you control it.
I think putting medical data on your cell phone is an Excelent idea.
But it does have potential pitfalls.
If you lose your cell – does whoever finds your cell get your medical history ?
But these are NOT problems for government.
I have my bank data on my phone, and my bank has figured out how to make it secure.
Further I can erase my phone remotely.
Anyway I do not want to get into the details or the problems – how does and EMT get at your medical data if you are incoherent, but at the same time someone who steals your phone can’t ?
But this is not a government issue.
OK once again your excessive words have confused the hell out of me.
You say “Your data is YOURS, The fact that you share it with your doctor, your bank, your cell company should not make it readily available to government or anyone else.”
That is what HIPPA does. You have to allow this to be shared with anyone.
But my question was about government “letting” us have “our” information and ” allowing” us to store it on our phones.
MOMMY GOVERNMENT.
Why isnt there more anger about this type crap than about Trump.
My POINT was that Hippa is a law that should not have existed – not because being cautious with medical information is a bad idea, but because it is a RIGHT,
Your data – your medical information, your financial information is YOUR PROPERTY.
The fact that you shared it with your doctor does not make it public. or cede your ownership.
Your doctor has revocable permission to use that information, not ownership.
That should be the DEFAULT. It should not require laws.
Dave “That should be the DEFAULT. It should not require laws.”
Let me explain. In our country, government, business and individuals believe they have a right to any information unless the laws says no. Long gone are the days where this was the right of the owner and was only released with a yes. So the yes was enacted by law. HIPPA.
In 1997, more and more data was beginning to be transmitted,shared and stored electronically. One of the top concerns, and rightfully so, was information insurance companies possessed concerning your health. From minor issues like sharing health issues with drug companies for direct marketing of medications, to sharing info to life insurance, loan companies and others for marketing and coverage/loan decision, there was no law that one could actually point to that could not be challenged if a case was opened.
HIPPA had much more than just privacy, but privacy was significant part.
Ron,
I know what most of govenrment beleives.
Where did we get the idea that Government should be entitled to define for itself its own limits ?
Our founders created a limited government of enumerated powers.
ALL ELSE was left to individuals.
Aside from The federalist papers and the writings of our founders there is an amendment to the constitution in the bill of rights that says just that – Freedom is infinite, Government power is defined.
Our rights are NOT what is convenient for govenrment. A right is by definition something INCONVENIENT.
Yes technology has made violating peoples privacy easier – but it is still a violation.
I do not have a problem with a bank demanding lots of information from me if I want a mortgage. I can choose not to get the mortgage. But it is STILL my property. They have my permission to use it to give me a mortgage – not to publish it on the internet, or give it to the government.
Dave,” Where did we get the idea that Government should be entitled to define for itself its own limits ?”
Sometime between the time the water in the pot was 70 degrees to 80 degrees when it felt so good to those letting it hapoen
But less than a week ago Trump (and his toadies) was touting the low numbers in the US, indicating the virus was no big deal.
“BREAKING: Massachusetts has just announced 51 *new* cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of presumptive cases to 92 — a 124 percent increase from yesterday. Seventy of the cases are related to the Biogen conference in Boston. Six people are hospitalized”
When it gets really bad, Trumpwill flip flop and say he warned it would turn out this way and blame the Dems for not being more proactive. And if the virus persists, he’ll cancel the
2020 Election over Coronavirus concerns for national health…
Yes, keep telling everyone what they are going to argue int he future.
We all know you are clairvoyant.
There are 330m people in the US.
there are 550m in the EU.
Over the same period of time infections in the EU have outpaces the US by a factor of 10.
Someone in the US is doing pretty well.
“ We all know you are clairvoyant.”
Far more than you are.
I predicted Trump would become more addled and stupid in office; he has.
I predicted Mexico wouldn’t pay for the wall or be built during his first term; his tariffs would make things worse not better; his tenure would produce divisiveness, deterioration of congressional norms, a lowering of civility across the board in America.
And I said Biden wasn’t finished after the first primary, that he’d likely win the nomination when more representative state primaries were finished. How’d you do on that call again. Dave?
Just In: WASHINGTON (AP) — Joe Biden wins Democratic presidential primaries in Missouri and Mississippi.
Trump is not “more addled and stupid” in office – he is the same. Most wise people expected that. People do not change easily.
As to the Wall – you are proving Salena Zito’s observation.
The left takes Trump litterally, but not seriously, Trump’s supporters take Trump seriously but not litterally.
Trump voters do not beleive they were lied to.
Only those like you who never took anything he said seriously, take everything he says litterally.
The net effect of the Tarriffs is negative – but not by much. He has been very careful about how he has used Tarrifs.
I would note that confronting China had both negative and positive impacts.
Should we NOT confront China ?
We were divided before Trump.
You have been a major source of division before Trump decended down the escalator.
Congress is responsible for itself.
It is Pelosi’s job to control her own actions – just as Trump is responsible for his.
Most of the country is doing fine. To the extent there is a noticeable lack of public civility it is entirely on the left.
College students are not silencing or assaulting left wing speakers.
It is the left that has shutdown Portland.
It is the left that is beating up journalists.
It is the left that is pushing the Political correctness, safe spaces, trigger warnings, cancel culture, …. It cost UC Berkeley nearly a million to have Ben Shapiro speak – because without secutiry all over the left could not be trusted to remain civil.
All this bad conduct is much the same as what was used to target blacks and civil rights workers a generation ago.
No one is beating people wearing Biden hats up.
No one is throwing Democrats out of resteraunts.
I can go on and on.
There is no consequential analog for the violence of the left.
I will bet you predicted the sun would rise today.
Kudos, you get one right.
Is Carter Page a Russian Asset ?
Did Mueller find anything to support the FBI investigation of Trump ?
Did Horowitz not find they broke rules and LAWS and LIED about it ?
Did the FISA court just announce it never wants these bozo’s to darken their chambers again ?
Did we not have a Witch Hunt ?
Was the Trump campaign spied on and “wiretapped” ?
Biden remains as the democratic candidate because the weakness of the democratic field. ‘
JHU has a total of 754 US cases todate.
A significant portion of those are from two cruise ships.
The US remains well behind China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Spain and Germany.
The US rate of increase is lower.
I suspect in the time the US has gone from 0 to 750 cases of Covid19 that 750 americans have died of the Flu.
For some reason I cant get into the data in jhu site. Can only get the opening summary page.
Of the 750 cases, other than the cases closed due to death, are all others active?
“As of Tuesday evening, at least 973 people in 37 states and Washington, D.C., have tested positive for coronavirus, according to a New York Times database, and at least 30 patients with the virus have died.”
That’s total positive tests, regardless of whether the people are/were symptomatic.
Check out the death toll from Washington, compared to the rest of the country. Most from a single nursing home.
(Ron, I didn’t hit the paywall on this article, even though it’s from the NYT… I can copy and paste the info, if you can’t access the article)
Also, even thosugh the date on the icon is March 3rd, the info is updated as of today.
As WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus explained on Monday: “We don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu – it’s just not possible. But it is possible for Covid-19.” He elaborated: “We have never seen before a respiratory pathogen that’s capable of community transmission but at the same time which can also be contained with the right measures. If this was an influenza epidemic, we would have expected to see widespread community transmission across the globe by now and efforts to slow it down or contain it would not be feasible.” WHO officials have also observed that the coronavirus appears to be much less contagious than the flu in their respective incubation periods, i.e., before symptoms appear.
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/coronavirus-seeing-through-the-fog-of-fear
Ron I’m busy cooking dinner & don’t have time to dig out your Vanity Fair comment to comment at that thread. BUT that article says they asked him to cut down on the length of his talks to “kept the digressions—hallmarks of his decades in public office—to a relative minimum.” That has NOTHING to do with The politicized cognitive worries you mini-Trumpsters (yes, Ron, you’ve migrated to the Slimy Side) claim are proven by shortened speeches. Biden took the advice; Dribble-Mouth Donnie was given the same advice over and over and ignored it. Hence the abundance of videos showing him in constant retard mode. Like his Fourth of July speech when Dumb-dumb said that during the Revolutionary War, the Continental Army “rammed the ramparts and took over airports.” If you don’t remember that, maybe Trump’s memory slippage is contagious 😷
Jay ,I think you must have missed where I mentioned how your governor praised Trump for providing logistical assistance and medical support to the passengers on the Grand Princess:
😉
“”His administration … has been consistent with the expectation that we repatriate these passengers,” the Democratic governor said during a press conference, “and we do it in a way that does justice to the spirit that defines the best of our country and the state of California.”
“He said, ‘We’re going to do the right thing, and you have my support,'” he continued. “He said everything that I could have hoped for. … We had a long conversation, and every single thing he said, they followed through on.”
Here’s something from the Twit for ya!
Yes, they are trying to manage readers and him.
Do you really think Biden’s staff is gfoing to say “Joe, you lost it, go home, be with your family”
Today, Biden lashed out at a supporter again. He was asked by a supporter about the 2A and Biden got angry with him, told him he was lying and offering “fake news”.
The Viral clip was Biden telling everyone that Beto “I am coming for your guns” ORourke would be his gun Czar. but now real video of democrats is “fake news” when it contradicts the lie they want to tell at the moment.
Meanwhile Biden’s staff was trying to Diffuse and get him to move on, and Biden “shushed” his staff and prolonged the confrontation.
So today we have Biden getting irrationally angry – often a sign of dimensia
Getting angry with people who are NOT attacking him – often a sign of dimesia.
Calling several of his own video’s – Fake news – – more disconnects from reality.
Calling an AR-15 and AR-14 – minor slip, probably nothing. But maybe a sign of dimensia.
Going after his own staff who is trying to help him – more signs of dimensia.
And honestly – Today was overall a “good day” for Biden.
Absolutely every item above is NOT conclusive. But as part of a pattern that has been going for a while and is getting worse. It is troubling.
Being concerned and observant is not “migrating to the slimy side”.
I do not think anyone here WANTS Biden to be impaired.
I certainly don’t.
Regardless, i expect we will have a good idea before this is over.
Pressidential elections are incredibly stressful.
If EITHER Biden or Trump are actually having issues – it will show much more than now before this is over.
I do not agree with the various assessments you claim from “experts’ regarding Trump.
But Trump does mispronounce things constantly. From what I see that is a life long issue that many of us have, especially people who speak as much as he does. But I could be wrong. I do not see anything wrong with questions – even if I am not espeicially interested in the opinions of mail order shrinks.
You are constantly demanding Trump’s tax returns.
While I think you are an idiot, and you are never getting them and Trump has no reason to give them to you – you are never going to vote for him anyway.
You ARE free to ask. Just as the rest of us are free to ask about either Biden’s or Trump’s mental status.
But the only coercion we may legitimately use – is our vote.
Jay, ike I said there were many that popped up. I just picked the first one. I actually heard it this morning watching the news, and not Fox News. Thats so you dont go off.on your TDS tantrum and accuse me of regurgitating Fox News.
So the next time I state something, you ask for documentation, I will just say do your own research. You wont believe anything that does not fit your narative anyway.
Ron,
You do not understand “the rules”.
Jay, democrats, those on the left, never have to support there positions.
Are there any posts of Jays that are actually support for some assertion of his ?
And no – tweets of someone else offering an oppinion or insult is not support for an argument.
I spend alot of time finding actual sources to demonstrate that much of what Jay posts is just made up or oppinion not fact.
Then Jay goes off on tangents attacking the sources.
He said no one was reporting Biden’s mental slips.
Google brought up thousands of hits instantly.
One of the first was Zerohedge – but I could have listed thousands.
So Jay attacks Zero hedge – while his attack was crap – what does it matter ?
If I linked to Der Sturmer that would still refute his assertion,
And I am sure cnn, msnbc, wsj, wapo, nyt were someone in my google list.
Then he says Trump is making millions off government service.
And uses revenue changes as proof.
In the past I have hear Jay say that he has had multiple important roles in corporate governance. Then he should know the difference between profit and revenue.
So I profit him with Forbes 2015 and 2029 assessments of Trump’s net worth.
That has dropped a bit less than $1B dollars. What matters is that it has dropped, how much or little is irrelevant to whether Trump profited.
So Jay responds with a Forbes post that Trump has not lost 3-5B.
I did not say he had.
It should not surprise anyone that Jay is constantly jumping to Russian Assets and other such nonsense.
I am starting to wonder how far Jay is behind Joe.
Does this sound like he’s mentally impaired?
He’s reflecting a MAJORITY American consensus on gun control.
(Imagine if Trump was confronted by someone who disagreed with him like this…)
Joe Biden in heated argument with Michigan factory worker https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51825119
Yes, it does. Not being in control of one’s emotions is a hallmark of dementia. And telling a voter that “he’s full of shit,” is not smart politics, to say the least.
It’s obvious to all that Joe is no longer playing with a full deck. Watch the YouTube video of his debate with Paul Ryan, from 2012. He was nasty and rude, but way sharper than he is now. Ryan got steamrolled.
One of the reasons that Hillary lost was because she lied about her health, and shortly before the election, collapsed and had to be thrown into a waiting van, like a side of beef.
Actually, Hillary seems healthier than Biden.
“Does this sound mentally impaired” ?
Does contradicting yourself and calling one of your own supporters a liar, and several of your own public comments fake news sound impaired ?
And is it possible for you to follow the argument.
The 2A is a RIGHT – popular opinion does not trump rights.
But the exchange with the factory worker was not about that.
It was about Biden telling the factory worker that his own public remarks were “fake news”.
And once again Biden is jumping to take it outside and brawl with one of his own voters.
I do not recall Trump ever threatening to get physical with anyone.
In fact at Trump rallies when hecklers get pushy, and security intervenes Trump has taken to asking them to come up front and share their views.
Joe calls them fat, challenges them to pushup contests, calls them dog faced pony soldiers and offers to “take it outside” with them.
You should hope his marbles are slipping. If Joe is actually competent this is worse.
I could not figure out how to get the image from Twitter, but i got the link. Dont care who you support, this is funny. I can see 10,000 people showing for a rally in these.
https://dl-mail.ymail.com/ws/download/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-veREABx_85JL3vZFVQw75cChFW-w-nta-6T0CrAcW6Nl1UjUllg-WHB7Vm4F2WBJ8KqXrDQr-v7QJMA6mubccw/messages/@.id==ADBq-MlAmQjdXmheAgsfqKafeA0/content/parts/@.id==1/raw?appid=YMailNorrin&ymreqid=9abcac33-fbf4-7105-1cf6-190101012900&token=zitEzqOML3j84e6ealFTT5U7-km5qEQF52lp7AcCuBYJXxqT_0P0-5qIH3Ud9HtJI0VVNkrcFhlIG5K-v5SGJNc8aBoQHrH5JsroG5HU1hLhBLnz2bZQufgc5_eQwIX-
Well that did not work.
By the time a person shows the signs of Alzheimer’s they have had the disease a long time. For many years the brain is able to reroute and compensate for the damage. The first symptoms show up when there are no more ways to reroute, no more reserves, and the disease is already far along. After that, the fall is very rapid. If Biden has Alzheimer’s he should be in very bad shape very soon. He has been like this for years. Not a good sign for the dementia theory.
Yelling at someone is a sign of dementia? You wonder, Priscilla, why Jay and I find your opinions unbelievable. You’ve swallowed every trump tweet and every one of his behaviors peacefully for 4 years and now the trump mother ship sent out the signal, the little satellite stations are immediately rebeaming it without any reflection or doubt. Yelling is bad, Biden must be mentally ill. Sigh, just instantly coordinated team politics in the internet age. Swift boat on speed.
And when this load fails there will be other offerings from the mothership, all to be rebroadcast by the faithful without hesitation. That is war for you.
Jay, fer gawd’s sakes give them a rest. Arguing with this kind of thing more than briefly just gives them a platform to go on and on, as if there really were something in their latest nonsense. Between them, Dave and Priscilla still have never really heard trump really lie nor spotted any major issues with his psychological makeup, the tweets are no sign of any psychological unfitness to be POTUS in their universe. Now they are ready to instantly fall in line with the WGOP radio signal and spread the gospel about Biden’s supposed illness. They are who they are, loyal privates in an infantry war.
If, as an example, hypothetically, a thoughtful sane moderate such as Amy Klobuchar were to become VP and then mount a much stronger run for president in 4 years they will find weird personal nonsense reasons to think that her character is unfit for office too, in fact the GOP especially hates the thought of moderate democrats and ramps up their slime machine when they arise. They will do this to any democrat, moderate, liberal, progressive. Its programmed into them, its nothing they could help if they tried. (OK, I admit, the dem party machinery is no different.)
Again, this latest nonsense is a compliment to Biden. The long cherished dream of running against Bernie Sanders just evaporated. The Dem party did not choose the Scandinavian path. Its a GOPian tragedy with huge implications for the Senate and House races as well.
If only Sander had won this would all be over already and I myself would prefer trump over Sanders and just give up on 2020. Instead there is a long ugly disgusting shit fight ahead and no one knows which army will win. Oh, the viewers this will attract for the talking heads, the advertising dollars for Fox and CNN.
This site had a few actually intelligent moments in the last few days but it has fallen back to the same old blah, blah, blah. I’m outta here, my target is to leave this particular temptation alone till after the conventions, or maybe longer. Politics really got its grip on me for a couple weeks, I admit it. Now that Sanders has collapsed, its time to go back to having a sane news filtering system. I am only half as angry at the political world as I was when Sanders was in play, which is a big improvement.
Fresh air is calling.
Robby,
I do not want to argue the details of demensia.
I think that the entire argument is moot.
I hope Biden does not have some form of Demensia.
But there are plenty of signs that he may.
But I need not persuade you or Jay.
If he does, this will get worse.
Biden has been mostly treated with kid gloves by the press and democratic opponents todate. That will not last.
If he has serious mental deficits – there will be ever more and ever worse failures.
If that is not the case – anyone claiming Biden is mentally unfit will lose the argument.
The same is True regarding Claims that Trump is mentally challenged.
But addressing your specific claims.
Alzheimers is not the only form of dimensia
They do not all progress the same way. Some progress very fast.
Biden has been gaffe prone forever. But many of us perceive a change more recently.
I think that perception is real. I think the evidence supports that.
If I am correct – this will get worse. If not it wont. .
We have spent 4 years listening to you. the left, Jay, democrats attacking Trump, his temperament, his mental competence, his style.
The legitimacy of those attacks rests on two things.
The evidence to support the claim.
Whether you are driving towards an act of force.
Criticism of Biden is no less legitimate than criticism of Trump.
I think most objectively rational people grasp that there is far more of a basis to question Biden’s mental competence.
Regardless, Biden has not been elected. The issues are a question of voting.
This is not as an example the equivalent of threatening to apply the 25th amendment.
Free speach means – actually free speach, including the right of others to express heinous as well as wrong oppinions, and assertions.
Questioning Biden’s competence is objectively reasonable. The only difference between Biden, Trump and Sanders on that issue is that there is todate no credible evidence of Trump or Sanders incompetence. Beliving stupid things is not evidence of mental incompetence or Sanders would not have been able to run for Mayor.
I hope that Biden is not suffering from any form of dimensia. I hope that nothing happens that leaves democrats with an election failure – If Biden becomes progressively worse to the point there is a problem obvious to all – how do you expect democrats to handle this ?
But then Democrats have had a problem from the start. They do not have a credible candidate in their stable. Biden may arguably be the best they have.
So for you this is about defeating Sanders ?
If that is the case, then you really need to become politically active in the democratic party.
If you have not figured it out, Sanders or something much like him is the future of the democratic party. Of every candidate in the Democratic Primary Biden is by far the furthest towards the center. The people on stage this time are mostly the same ones that will be there in 2024 (less Sanders and Warren likely),
Progressivism is the clear future of the democratic party. Even Biden has been drug pretty far left in this primary.
In 2024 you are not likely to have a Biden like choice.
“Yelling at someone is a sign of dementia? You wonder, Priscilla, why Jay and I find your opinions unbelievable.”
I understand that your parents are alive and well Roby.
My mother had dementia for several years, before she died. You damn well better believe that personality changes and inability to control one’s emotions are are a symptom of Alzheimer’s, as well as most other forms of dementia. It was very difficult to watch my brilliant, kind-spirited mom turn into a confused, anxious,and slightly paranoid woman. I am happy that your parents have been spared.
“A person with early stage vascular dementia is prone to apathy, mood swings and being unusually emotional. They are also particularly likely to have anxiety and depression, partly because they are more aware of the problems their dementia is causing.”
https://www.alzheimers.org.uk/about-dementia/symptoms-and-diagnosis/how-dementia-progresses/progression-vascular-dementia
I don’t give a rat’s ass that you and Jay think “my opinions” are unbelievable.
But, at least, get “my opinions” right. I never said that “yelling at people” is a sign of dementia. Agitation and confusion can manifest in yelling, but I believe that I said “inability to control one’s emotions.”
Not that little details like someone’s actual words matter, right?
Jay and Robby appear to have been lucky enough to have avoided demensia in a close family member – I am happy for their good fortune.
But it has deprived them of first hand understanding.
It is generally accepted that if you live long enough you will develop cognitive impairment.
But most people die before they become impaired.
Further we know that mental processes change with aging. Crystalized inteligence (experience based) rises, and fluid intelligence drops. And intelligence is just one factor.
There is a well know steortype of “dirty old men”. A priest who was a friend to me and my family and a wonderful and decent person for most of his life became a lech in the few years before he died.
Lots of things change with aging – some good some bad. They do not change exactly the same for everyone nor do they change as fast.
My father had vascular dimensia. The only positive thing I can say about that is his decline was fast and obvious. Most Alzheimers patients take decades to go through what took 3 years for him. Taking care of my father in the last 3 years of his life was the most difficult thing I have ever done. it was emotionally devastating. Beyond the pain of watching his own decline, The family dynamics were horrible. Preditors came out of the woodwork’s.
One sibling was in complete denial, to the extent that he beleived that the two of us responsible for caring for my father were stealing from him and trying to kill him.
Two siblings (and lots of “friends”) were trying to take advantage of him, numerous people were stealing from him, and many who were not, were still seeking advantage from his impairment. It is also the accomplishment in my life I am most proud of.
There are no unique signatures to mental decline. There is absolutely no symptom that is not something that also occurs with ordinary unimpaired people all the time. What distinguished mental decline is the increasing frequency of these failures, as well as the scale.
Ron.. no need to stock up,on toilet paper.. only a tiny fraction get the runs…
Have not made that run yet.But all those people who thought that was a symptom and cleaned out Costco they wont have to make that run anytime soon.
Some will blame Trump. Go ahead, keep burying your head in your ass. I blame government. Not the politicians, but the incompetent lifers in civil service.
I find it odd to be defending government.
To be clear – they have done alot wrong, though they would have done much the same whether the president was Trump or Clinton. i do not expect competence from government.
Further though this is a legitimate realm of government, it is extremely difficult.
One expert from WHO noted yesterday that if China (or other countries) provess successful in containing this, it would be the first time ever that a flu or cold like virus of this kind was EVER contained.
Pretty much everything we have ever managed to effectively contain has been something that requires direct contact.
AIDs is much more difficult to spread, much less contagious and yet we have never really successfully contained it.
Addressing the claims more closely. One of the problems with things like Covid19 is that we never have the resources at the start we do later on.
There are millions of test kits today. How many were there when the first infected passengers returned from China ?
We will have a vaccine for this – faster than we have ever developed a vaccine.
But possibly not before this has burned itself out.
There was not and can not be enough resources on day one to fight any thing like this.
Dave, I can not believe you are defending this shit.
If I go to the doctor and he/she swabs my nose for the flu, what the f *** right does the government have in telling them/me that they cant test for other diseases.
Good god, when someone like you accepts this crap, there is no hope for ever seeing less government control of individuals lives.
When I go to the doctor, I want them finding out what is wrong with me. I dont want some lifer government employee telling my doctor they are limited as to what they can look for.
People like Jay will be happy as a mouse in a cheese factory about this as it grows to 10,000- 20,000 cases, 1000+ deaths and Trumps approval is 25% because he gets blamed for incompetence that has been present in givernment for years. As long as anyone but Trump gets elected, government is good to go! Blocking testing does nothing but promotes the spread. And the F’in government still doesnt have enough test kits. What the hell have they geen doing .
At least Roby has come out against politicalizing this.
Government “letting” doctors to test is total bull shit!
Please do not misconstrue what I am “defending”.
With respect to an individuals choices on their own medical care – including testing.
A person is free to do as they please, government interferance in voluntary private interactions not involving force is only to enforce any agreements made.
That is all. It is not to decide what testing you can have.
—
What I was “”defending” is that as incompetent as the FDA, CDC, NIH has been,
I do not think they have been unusually incompetent.
And stoping epidemics – particularly at our borders is a legitimate government function.
Regardless, I am not saying there is nothing to criticise – just nothing NEW to criticise.
If Government succeeds – that would be unusual.
OK I understand.
I know government is incompetent. But I was unaware until
just recently that government at the CDC, NIH level could control what tests the doctors could perform on patients. And I spent from 1972 until 2008 in healthcare finance including patient billing. Never did anyone say anything about government controlling tests other than from a patient billing angle. And this has nothing to do with billing.
So I wonder when CDC will come between me and my prostate exam😖?
We appear to be debating two different issues.
The first is the extent that the government can prevent you from doing whatever you want when there is no harm to others.
In the instant example – can the government prevent you from being able to get Covi19 testing.
The answer is ZERO. Government has no role at all in precluding voluntary activities that do not involve harm to others.
The second question is whether the government is handling Covid19 well.
The answer is “no”, but govenrment does nothing well.
They are however doing better than any prior administration.
Jay complained that Trump fired people from the NSC involved in pandemics.
Are we facing a threat that Russia will nuke us while Covid19 attacks ?
Is it acceptable for Trump to eliminate positions in CDC for studying the health effects of under water basket weaving ?
All buget cuts all staff cuts DO NOT negatively impact government universally.
Many cuts actually make government better able to do its job.
As I just discovered – Swine Flu was Less Contagiuous than Covid19 – yet Obama allowed it to spread accross the country, infecting 59M people and killing 12,000
But I am not going to Piss on Obama – because containing Swine Flu was not possible – THEN.
Probably containing Covid19 is possible today.
It took a full year to develop a swine flu vaccine.
It took a full year to get shine flu test kits approved by the CDC.
Those are failures of the Obama CDC.
Ron: “ People like Jay will be happy as a mouse in a cheese factory about this as it grows to 10,000- 20,000 cases, 1000+ deaths and Trumps approval is 25% because he gets blamed for incompetence that has been present in givernment for years.”
It’s going to grow way more than 20,000 cases, Ron. And yes, the slow acting bureaucracy will be partly to blame, but Trump will be justifiable blamed for making it worse, for slowing down the slow response even slower.
He’s the FUCKING PRESIDENT, Ron. He could declare a national emergency, and get those creaking bureaucratic wheels you’re bitching about moving faster! Instead the short-sighted ignoramus keeps insisting it will all be soon over, nothing to worry about, it’s just another flu.
The thick headed idiot can not admit that his original ‘don’t worry’ prognostications were faulty; and he’ll double down on that in tonight’s speech, where he’ll maybe toss some federal money to cover small business losses, and paychecks for hourly workers effected by the virus, but WONT declare an expansive emergency to combat the escalating outbreak, because escalation is counter to his original narrative.
And of course the narcissistic buffoon will Also take the opportunity to tell you how good Trump’s doing confronting EVERYTHING because Trump has a better understanding of what’s going on than ANYONE! And the Trumpanzee Zombies will nod in approval.
In 2009/2010 Swine Flu grew to 59m cases, and 12,000 deaths.
Swine Flu had a Lower R0 value than Covid19 – i.e. If it is possible to contain Covid19 – it would have been easier to contain Swine Flu.
Yet, Obama never even Tried.
It took a full year before there were test kits available.
This administration is not handling this perfectly – no administration does.
But it is doing far better than Obama did.
The only disease that Obama successfdully contained the entire time he was in office was Ebola, and that could not be spread without direct contact to specific bodily fluids, and only in an accutely infected person. Ebola was very deadly, but it was not very contageous.
Every single week more people are dying of the flu than have died from Covid19 since it reached the US.
Of all the things you should be worried about – even now Covid19 is not one of those.
I do not care if you want to panic. I do not care if the country wants to panic.
But lets quit pretending this was some special failure of Trump’s.
I do not like government, I do not like the CDC, FDA, NIH.
I do not think they do a great job. Or even a good job.
They do not do a good job under Trump.
They did much worse under Obama.
But they are within reason doing about as well as I would expect out of government in dealing with Covid19
At this moment Italy, Spain, Germany, France all european countries whose combined populations are less than the US EACH have more infections than the US, Most double the US rate.
I do not think there is a single developed nation on earth at this moment with fewer Covid19 cases as a percent of population.
You claim Trump has handled this incompetently.
Until Covid19 no one has EVER successfully tried to contain an airborne virus.
Who is it that you think was going to do better ?
Obama did not even try.
Our Big Tech Overlords will make sure that we do not read any of the articles about Joe Biden’s declining mental state…..
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020/03/11/does-joe-biden-have-dementia-does-it-matter/#13ce9e3319db
?? And you know the article was pulled to protect Biden? Did you read it prior to it’s withdrawal? If so, what did the article say?
Haven’t you heard? It’s off limits to question Joe’s mental acuity. Not off limits to question Trump’s, but definitely ol’ Joe is sharp as a tack, and don’t anyone dare suggest otherwise!
I do not always agree with Greenwald, but I love him.
I forgot this GOP Conspiracy theory about Biden’s competence was started by democrats.
This Trump/Russia collusion nonsense was bought and paid for by Clinton.
Birtherism started with Clinton operative Sidney Blumenthal.
The Biden Ukraine stories started with a Clinton campaign story planted in the NYT.
I would not be surprised if Clinton operatives are the source of the Biden Dementia Story.
I would further note that While Clinton is the queen of dirty politics each of these stories has some limited germ of Truth to it.
Though Barack Obama can not bear any personal responsibility for the circumstances of his birth, the birth certificates thus far released have been altered. Someone is hiding something. It is just not likely Obama’s birthplace.
Biden’s involvement in Ukraine stinks. Yavonovitch’s assertion that the claims of Ukriane misconduct in 2016 are a Hoax is demonstrably false on numerous levels.
Ukraines net effect is likely more impotent than Russias. But it is not nonexistant.
As even Greenwald notes – there are plenty of legitimate concerns about Biden, and these were raised – often by the very democrats claiming they are an evil GOP plot atleast as far back as June 2019
One of the problems with censorship is that you are rarely allowed to know why you have been censored.
Your worse than Biden. You just told me two comments ago government control was OK. Now with this you copy and past a tweet about govt killing people.
No I did not say government control was OK.
I made a more generally statement – that government is LESS F’d up on GENERALLY dealing with Covid-19 than is the norm for government.
Trying to stop an epidemic IS a legitimate government function.
They are doing so BADLY, but NOT Unusually badly.
Fuller picture of Coronavirus vrs Flu – symptoms, incubation, dangers …
https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615341/flu-vs-coronavirus-6-differences/
1). The article has that one reversed.
The flu spreads both as an aerosole and by transfer of fluids via surfaces – touching.
Covid19 Absolutely spreads via aerosole. It MAY spread by surfaces – we are not sure of that. There is significant debate over the spread rate and mechanisms of Covid19.
It has an estimated R factor of 2, The Flu has an R factor of 2.8, the measles has an R factor of 19. This is NOT a highly contageous disease.
It PROBABLY does not spread via “germs on surfaces” – but it is still wise to take precautions.
It should be noted that all the differences that suggest Corona is worse – such as the shedding duration, etc. ALL mean that it is FAR LESS contagious.
IF the time interval in which you can get the flu from an infected person is only a day or two and yet the Flu has an R factor 50% higher than Covid19 while Covid19 has a time interval as much as 15 times longer that an infected person can spread the disease, they REQUIRES that the odds of getting Covid19 from an exposure must be more than 15 times lower.
Seconday infections.
I get the flu shot regularly. I have seasonal allergies that are bad in the fall that makes me highly susceptable to the flu. Further when I get the Flu I ALWAYS end up with a secondary infection – several in a row. I have gotten the flu frequently and not recovered for 6-8 weeks.
Covid19 is deadlier than the flu – but the numbers int he article are crap.
Flu mortality is only 0.1% in developed countries with excellent health care.
Globally the flu mortality rate is about 1%
Further in the US most at risk people are vaccinated against the flu lowering the mortality.
In the US this year 19000 people have died of the flu and 31M have been infected.
The current Flu seems to hit children particularly hard. There are far more infant flu deaths than all covid19 deaths.
“In words that now seem prescient, Bill Gates said in an interview with STAT two years ago that he had urged President Trump to invest in technologies to respond to a pandemic.”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/bill-gates-president-trump-pandemic-preparedness-investment/
Instead of following that advice Trump fired the pandemic rapid response team on NSC.
So CDC blocks testing based on years of regulations and your blaming Trump.
JAY, WAKE UP! GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM!
Remember, the CDC blocked testing, did their own test kits and fucked that up.
Ya think maybe we need to fire a bunch of incompetent lifers at CDC and start over.
Why didnt 43 do the pandemic. Why didnt Obama do a pandemic plan, he had ebola and zeeka virus.
Get off the 100% “Trump fault shit” and realize its GOVERNMENT civil service that is the problem. And the president can not walk in and fire 1,000,000+ incompetent employees.
You and those that think government is the answer ARE THE PROBLEM!.Government is the problem!
The CDC under Trump has had test kits to the states 4 times faster and in larger numbers than with Obama and Swine Flu.
I was wrong. RRT’s were present in Obama admin.
That does not change my opinion that government is good. Would that agency blocked the CDC from allowing private testing. I doubt it vey much.
And much of their funding was designed for stopping pandemics in China. China would not let the WHO in early, so what could an RRT do if China had not let them in?
Are you paying any attention ?
In the event this is contained – which it appears China has done, and which it is likely that much of the world might manage, this will be the first time EVER that an aerosol Virus has successfully been contained.
We do not even try to contain the Flu or the common cold.
We do nothing about the cold – which Covid19 is closely related to. It runs around the world all the time infecting and killing people.
We have vaccines for the Flu – if we identify it early enough and can get people vaccinated – but we do not otherwise attempt to contain it.
If we successfully contain this – it will be PROOF that we have actually advanced the state of things dramatically.
You are pretending that you can hold Trump accountable for something that until now was not possible, and even now, may not be.
If we succeed in containing this it will be because:
The spread rate is low – it is not very contageous.
And we acted quickly.
In the event that we fail – we will have failed at something that is still impossible.
Did Obama stop Swine Flu in 2009-2010 ? 59M americans were infected, 265,000 were hospitalized and atleast 12,000 died in the US alone from the H1N1 Swine Flu.
Why didn’t Obama stop that ?
In addition to Swine flu the same year there were 800 deaths PER WEEK due to the normal Flu.
The Swine flu was recognized as a serious health threat in October 2009. Yet there were no US test kits until late April 2010.
The R0 value for Swine Flu is Lower than Covid19 so it is easier to contain – yet Obama failed to contain it.
More Trump Ia An Anus News:
“ Twitter has for the first time labeled a post “manipulated media.” And it came from the White House.
On March 7, at 8:18 pm EST, Dan Scavino, assistant to the president and director of social media at the White House, tweeted an edited clip of a speech that Joe Biden gave in Kansas City, Missouri. It went out from his personal Twitter to more than 700,000 followers.
President Donald Trump retweeted the edited video later that day, and it’s now received more than 6.7 million views.
The clip is edited so that the Democratic candidate appears to endorse Donald Trump’s reelection. Biden appears to say, “We cannot win this reelection. We can only elect Donald Trump.”
In fact, what Biden actually said in his speech was, “We want a nominee who will bring this party together … because we cannot get reelect … we cannot win this reelection … excuse me … we can only reelect Donald Trump if in fact we get engaged in this circular firing squad here. It’s gotta be a positive campaign, so join us.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/twitters-1st-manipulated-media-warning-white-house/story?id=69504259
As usual, Trump says the video isn’t edited.. “It’s mesushna gobots dehamga,” Trump is reported complaining. 🥴
So you have Twitter banning free expression and you find a way to blame Trump.
The “manipulation” Of the Biden video was simply choosing the starting and ending point, and Twitter seems to think they should second guess that.
Just a few days ago you linked a video with a collection of purported Gaffes by Trump,
This far more egregiously violated this new Twitter rule about “manipulation”.
This is just a stupid rule, and more evidence that social media is politically biased.
You want to rant about “russian interferance” in the election.
This is an example of Twitter interfering in the election.
And yet somehow you want to turn this arround and blame Trump ?
For what ?
Please Jay explain to me exactly why the clip you are offended by is more “manipulated” than the one you yourself linked to just a few days ago ?
Alas, alas for you,
Lawyers and pharisees
Hypocrites that you be
Searching for souls and fools to forsake them
You travel the land you scour the sea
After you’ve got your converts you make them
Twice as fit for hell!
As you are yourselves!
Alas, alas, for you
Lawyers and pharisees
Hypocrites that you are
Sure that the kingdom of Heaven awaits you
You will not venture half so far
Other men that might enter the gates you
Keep from passing through!
Drag them down with you!
You snakes, you viper’s brood
You cannot escape being Devil’s food!
I send you prophets, and I send you preachers
Sages in rages and ages of teachers
Nothing can mar your mood
Alas, alas for you
Lawyers and pharisees
Hypocrites to a man
Sons of the dogs who murdered the prophets
Finishing off what your fathers began
You don’t have time to scorn or to scoff
It’s getting very late!
Vengeance doesn’t wait!
You snakes, you viper’s brood
You cannot escape being Devil’s food!
I send you prophets, and I send you preachers
Sages in rages and ages of teachers
Nothing can mar your mood
Blind guides, blind fools
The blood you’ve spilt
On you will fall!
This nation, this generation
Shall bear the guilt of it all!
Alas, alas alas for you!
Blind fools!!
Every video on the planet is “edited” We do not live stream life in its entirety.
In the instance of this video a human decided – exactly as they do on every other video in creation when to start and when to end.
That is ALL that was done. In this case it was done twice – once to decide when to start, once to decide when to end.
In the collage clip of Trump remarks you posted recently the same editing choice was made HUNDREDS of times.
You and Twitter are engaged in hypocritical games.
You make rules for those you do not like – but do not apply them to those you do.
Every single video on twitter meets this idiotic “manipulated media” criteria.
The video is not edited so that Biden “Appears” to say anything.
Biden said every single word in the video. From the starting point to the ending point – no words were removed.
Biden even paused where the video was ended, and then realizing he had misspoken – as he does frequently – added some more.
Further no one on the planet actually thinks Biden endorsed Trump – or that the intent of the clip was to say that Biden endorsed Trump.
The point of the clip – which it makes extremely well, is that Biden does not have control of what he is saying.
But those like you – who are sure you can read other peoples minds, pretend that you know the “intent” of the video and that somehow the “intent” is deceptive.
The intent is to show Biden speaking foolishly.
Which he did.
I would note that the entire media did exactly the same thing to Trump with the “there were good people on both sides” charlottesville remarks by Trump.
Go find the full clip you will find in context Trump said something entirely different and the clip was “deceptively edited”.
All twitter is accomplishing is demonstrating that they can not be trusted.
NBC NEWS: The attending physician of the U.S. Congress & Supreme Court, Dr. Brian Monahan, briefed Senate Staff yesterday in a closed-door meeting that he expects anywhere from 70 up to 150 million people in the U.S. to contract coronavirus, per two sources
Why do we have “The attending physician of the U.S. Congress & Supreme Court,”
Testifying ? that is about the same as having my family doctor testify.
Regardless, what would you like to bet on an upper limit to this ?
I will agree to permanently leave TNM if there are more than 70M cases in the US – will you agree to permanently leave TNM if there aren’t ?
“How much you truly “believe” in something can be manifested only through what you are willing to risk for it.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game:
“ Why do we have “The attending physician of the U.S. Congress & Supreme Court,”
Testifying ? that is about the same as having my family doctor testify.‘
Surely you agree it’s better than having Trump’s uninformed gut opinions about it…
But i agree, those numbers don’t make sense; I’m guessing the Doctor said cases and deaths world-wide, and the reporter mistook that as US cases and deaths.
“Surely you agree it’s better than having Trump’s uninformed gut opinions about it…”
No, further I am not interested in anyone’s “oppinions” or Guts – not a family doctor, not some “expert” from CDC or WHO.
I want to know what DATA they have, and the degree of confidence they have in that data.
Virus’s are the simplest form of life in existance, it is arguable that they are not even a form of life. Regardless, their behavior is almost purely mathematical.
Further there are things we can do to fight against virus’s – but honestly there is not that much, and that is pretty much being done.
Most viruses will die out on their own eventually, their progression follows a “logistics curve”.
All the questions regarding how fast this will spread, how many people will get it, how long it will last, how many people will die are inherently mathematical.
Our most fundimental issue is that we do not accurately know those numbers and will not until large numbers of people have been infected either under controlled circumstances or under enough circumstances to factor out things that skew the data.
Right now we have mortality curves – mostly based on data from China that is highly suspect.
As well as from Cruise ships. Inside of most other countries the number of infections is either too low or the discrepancy between the actual and known infections is too high – at this time.
We have a questimated spread rate. Despite all the panic being sowed and all the information about how long this is contagious, the spread rate is very low. That is the only reason we have any hope of containing this.
“But i agree, those numbers don’t make sense; I’m guessing the Doctor said cases and deaths world-wide, and the reporter mistook that as US cases and deaths.”
I have no idea. I also have no idea where the doctor got his numbers.
I do not think the Doctor has any idea where he got his numbers.
If we fail at containment, the total number effected will be little more than a guess.
It depends on things like the natural immunity levels – the number of people who just will not get this no matter what. Those are not know.
The spanish flu only infected 27% of the world population inn 1918. That was an extremely virulent flu with a high spread rate that hit during a world war under the absolute most favorable conditions for spreading.
We can not at this time know what the maximum number of people who will get this will be, but 27% globally would likely be an absolute maximum.
We have not seen anything like that since the Spanish flu, and there is no reason to beleive this is going to spread to more people than that.
Further this is hitting the US as we start into spring – Flu and colds are seasonal. We are not sure why, but there is no reason to beleive this is not seasonal.
That the spread will decline rapidly as the temperatures warm. That is also why this is mostly conjfined to the northern hemisphere right now.
Finally, aside from vaccines and antivirals(which only reduce symptoms) we have never successfully stopped anything like this.
Not Obama, Not Trump. Not the WHO, not CDC, not anyone, ever.
Trump can be competent or not – though frankly the political leadership is almost a non-factor. The CDC, FDA, NIH are all fundimentally the same people with fundimentally the same resources as they were for the past 20 years. They are going to do fundimentally the same job.
The facts thus far indicate that the government (and private) response thus far, has been much more effective that that against Swine Flu in 2009. That is NOT likely the result of politics. It is most likely the result of the advance of science.
You have ranted about the lack of testing – it has taken 3 months to reach broad public availability of testing resources. In 2009 it took a full year.
If you wish to claim there is a political factor – Fine, Trump is 4 times better than Obama.
I do not think there is. But there is not a real world where there is data that Trump is less effective.
It took a full year to develop and approve the Swine Flu Vaccine.
We have two vaccines in animal trials now. Those might not prove safe or effective.
But it is near certain we will have a working vaccine in less than a year.
It is highly likely we will have one by summer.
The successful efforts by Rosenstein, and the “deep state” to stall for years on the release of this information diminished our grasp of how serious this is.
Solomon notes that Judge Sulivan refuses to consider this in Flynn’s case – because he plead guilty to a different crime.
But the fact that the entire Trump/Russia nonsense fell apart completely by mid january means that ALL subsequent investigation is unconstitutional.
I would note that REPEATEDLY through this article damning exculpatory information is revealed followed by AND MUELLER KNEW.
Most of us are aware of the legal concept ‘fruit of the poisonous tree”.
Every single Mueller prosecution is “fruit of the poisonous tree”.
As Horowitz noted – reasonable suspicion was gone by mid january.
This article just documents some of the nails in its coffin,
Without reasonable suspicion GOVERNMENT MAY NOT INVESTIGATE.
If this were a murder investigation and the police determined that the alleged murder victim was still alive, They could not continue to investigate murder.
The power to investigate – requires reasonable suspicion.
Our government is NOT free to investigate whoever it wants for no reason at all.
The power to subpeona, issue warrants, call a grand jury requires probable case – that is a much higher standard.
If reasonable suspicion does not exist, probable cause certainly does not.
The FISA court has already voiding the last two warrants for Carter Page.
The FISA court has as a mater of judicial record concluded that their no longer existed probable cause for the last two FISA warrants. Every single court continuing to hear a Mueller matter is required to take judicial notice of that.
Voiding the FISA Warrants is very close to voiding every single subpeona and Warrant that Mueller issued.
At the very least every single warrant that Mueller issues must be reviewed and stripped of all evidence that law enforcement KNEW in Jaunary 2017 was bogus must be removed. If that warrant can not stand without that evidence, the Warrant itself is no longer valid. Any “evidence” based on that warrant is no longer admissible.
A part of what Sulivan does nto appear to grasp is that as of mid jaunary 2017 continued investigation of Flynn by the FBI and Mueller was itself a CRIME.
With almost everything we have fought over for the past 4 years there is a single absolutely critical foundational issue at the very bottom.
What constitutes sufficient basis to conduct an investigation ?
The legitimacy of Crossfire huricane rests on whether their is “reasonable suspicion” of a crime to justify the investigation.
Democrats and republicans continue to fight over whether this investigation or that is “politically motivated” – THAT IS NOT THE STANDARD.
Absolutely political motivations are a reason to be dubious of government actions.
But as I have said repeatedly -Motivations are NOT crimes. Allegedly bad motive do not make legal acts into crimes. Nor do good motives make bad acts legal.
Crossfire hurricane and the subsequent Mueller investigation were legitimate so long as reasonable suspicion of a crime existed. Horowitz has concluded – and now the FISA court that reasonable suspicion no longer existed after Mid January 2017.
https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbis-russia-collusion-case-fell-apart-first-month-trump-presidency
I am glad we agree atleast a little on some things.
Frankly your post surprised me. It is just about the most rational and reasonable post I can recall your making possibly ever.
Regardless, I was also trying to raise a point that I try to make over and over – that applies to most everyone.
The value of an “oppinion” most strongly correlates to the cost to the person offering it of being wrong, and the benefit to them of being right.
Or more simply – whether the person has “skin in the game”.
This is one of the many many problems with government “experts”.
There is almost never a price to be paid for those in government for being wrong.
They can not lose their jobs.
In the wake of the VA scandals, the Head of the VA was fired, but the VA received more money and nearly everyone below the VA cheif benefitted from the VA failures.
That is a receipe for disaster.
It is also why private “experts” are far more accurate than government experts.
It is also why profit motives very rarely (contra the left) lead to bad outcomes.
Madoff and family lived like a king as a result of his fraud for years.
Now he is in jail for the rest of his life, his son committed suicide. His family are pariahs.
There are extremely few evil ways to profit in business that do not ultimately lead to jail, bankruptcy, and ill repute.
For every expert you are listening to on any subject – Covid19, Trump, Economics, law, ….
What is the cost to them of being wrong, what is the benefit to them of being right ?
If there is no cost – their oppinion has little value.
Our media has degenerated into crap – because there is no cost to being wrong.
A decade or two ago we had very high profile media firing’s over pulitzer prize winning stories that ultimately had no foundation. the “naratives” were “true” purportedly, but there were no real people. Today these reporters would not be fired, they would be celebreated, not only is their no price for error in reporting – but so long as the “narative” is appealing, the facts do not matter.
The easier we make things like voting – the poorer the quality of the results we will get.
CORONAVIRUS CURE ON THE WAY!
(but you have to wait until april 9th)
Using your logic, can I claim that Joe Biden has become a 2nd amendment absolutist because he went to a union shop where he was asked questions by a gun rights supporter ?
What does it take to get you to drop these stupid guilt by association twice removed fallacies ?
This is a bad day, in fact its terrible. Its EVERYBODY’S FAULT in the world of politics. As an example of what is wrong, I do not have one single source of information I trust on the issue of coronavirus and its medical, political, and economic impacts. Our dysfunctional and hyper partisan shortsighted political party system has done huge harm to the fabric of our society.
Well, we have always been partisan, divided into two or three teams, the level has gone up and down from era to era. Here we see the consequences of hyper-partisan division when some large outside event happens. Populist movements have turned out to be just as dangerous as I feared 4 years back. Populist movements are based on the deepest most acidic and unbalanced cynicism that destroys everything it touches. Here is America trying to have an effective reaction to a technically beatable problem while in the throes of populist movements that convince so many people that the system is rotten to the core and must be replaced in a revolution.
I would love to see Trump, congress and the media stop their politicking and present a united front right now. Nothing has happened that could not be dealt with if we come together adn don’t panic.
I have no stocks, but I recognize what is going to happen to the economy as a result of a stock market crash and how it is going to hurt people and have repercussions that go in all directions. This is why I fear complex systems, one part going sour can bring the whole thing down.
The election is small potatoes compared to the importance of getting the next month right.
Why do you presume some right to information that you can trust ?
One of the underlying facts regarding this is that there is so much that we just do not know.
There are disputes over just about every key attribute to this virus. There are very few of the “experts” who are trying to deceive us. Most are well meaning. But they do not KNOW the things you claim to have a right to be told.
I would further note had Covid19 occured in 2010 instead of 2020 there would be no serious debate as to what to do, because there would have been almost nothing that we could do.
And that STILL may be true even today. But we MIGHT be able to do something today, and we near certainly will be able to do better in the future.
Before you can presume some failure on the part of our health system or government – and I am always ready to point out failures of government – it has to be possible for action on their part to result in a different outcome. No government has ever been able to control the path of a huricane. Hopefully there is not a poster here who would claim that any president has it within his power to control hurricanes.
There is some hope right now that it might be possible to thwart covid19.
And that Hope MIGHT have a sound basis.
But before we go rushing off to conclusions fundimentally based on partisanship, we whoudl note than nothing like stopping Covid19 has EVER been done before.
As to all the purported experts warning us of some deadly pandemic which we have all ignored – SO WHAT? Fretting over what we can not control, spending a fortune to accomplish nothing beyond saying “we care, we tried” is not wise.
The root of your anxiety and despair is not bitter partisanship. It is that humans are not omnisient, all things are not known to science and never will be,
It is near certain that “next time” we will have learned enough to do better. It is clear that our developing knowledge and skills in genetics will get us to the point where we can stop something like this at the start. But that is not now.
Right now we have a choice to try to contain this – which there is reason to hope will succeed, or to try to stall until we have more effective anti-virals and a vaccine, or to just let this run its course.
At the same time we are likely to get a crash course in economics. The tools we are using. The quaranties, travel bans, social distancing, all the assorted shutdowns – even if they work have profound consequences.
It is entirely possible that we can succeed in stopping this AND concurrently cause a serious global recession. This is especially true if this becomes as it easily could be a protracted delaying tactic, in hopes of a vaccine.
It is possible but unlikely this could kill millions.
It is also possible that the economic damage of fighting it could exceed the cost of not doing so.
There is no expert that can answer these questions with certainty.
The answers you seek are not known. The fact they are not know is NOT some consequence of political partisanship – even if this is amplifying partisan conflict.
Covid19 does not give a shit whether you are a republican or democrat.
At the same time as there are many many attributes of Covid19 that we do not know for certain. The attributes themselves are fixed, immutable. Our lack of knowledge does not change them.
You are presuming that it is possible to “get the next month right.”
Why do you presume this is a problem inside of the ability of humans to control ?
I absolutely believe that there is such a thing as an unsolvable problem, pancreatic cancer for example, or Alzheimer’s to pick biological examples, or human travel at light speed, elimination of economic classes, many things are not doable.
The economic aspects of this situation can be, not prevented, but helped adn contained to some extent, and it would be better if the people in the highest positions of responsibility, which actually includes the media, would work together and put their ideas about the election down as much as possible. Possibly a very naive statement on my part, but a sentiment that I think you can agree with at any rate. I have actually felt some sympathy for trump in the last week. There are all kinds of ways I can see trumps actions as not having been optimal, but I have put that thinking down for the time, and I have been disgusted, as I have mentioned, with media stories that are the same old partisan political “analysis.” I do not think that the GOP and Dem parties should be crafting competing plans, I think they should get together in a dignified way and craft one plan. I can hear everyone here saying, Ha, Ha, Ha to that and going back to grinding their own political axe and playing the usual its the other side that is at fault game but I think that it could happen that the politicians put down their weapons and cooperate, given the stakes.
As well, while there is no perfect response there are better and worse ways of managing the biological and epidemiological responses. I actually have agreed with much that you have written on that topic, a lot of it has been pretty logical and rational and agrees with my own thoughts. Do we have to instinctively disagree? Sometimes we have transcended that. This would be a great time to do it again, as many of us as possible.
Robby,
I beleive that despite the degree of uncertainty regarding many factors of Covid19 that we still have enough data to model a range of possible outcomes.
I beleive Los Almos’s worst case scenario is total global deaths at 4.4M.
That is NOT a likely outcome.
I beleive there best case scenario was 440,000 cases of COVID19 globally.
That is also NOT a likely outcome.
There is a small possibility of exceeding either extreme projection.
But the likely outcome is somewhere between the two extreme projections.
These models will get more accurate as existing raw data is better analyzed.
Just to be clear I am not specifically talking about an unsolveable problem – though this might be one.
I am talking about one of the myriads of problems with CURRENTLY unknowable factors.
I would specifically note that there is one and only one institution that has ever been capable of effectively confronting this class of problems – free markets.
That is the only arrangement that allows multiple concurrent efforts to address the same problem each doing so with different assumptions regarding the unknowns and the best fit solution usually prevailing.
Many things we do not accurately know about Covid19 – many of the things where there is significant disagreement, will ultimately be known. But we do not know them NOW, and the best we can do is try to reconcile conflicting data with each other in ways that favors that data that is higher quality. That WILL NOT reach the absolute truth. But it has a high probability of getting at the truth.
Some examples:
We know that the time period that Covid19 is contageous is about 4 times longer than the flu or colds.
But we also know that the reporuction rate R0 is very close to that of the flu and colds.
LOGICALLY and MATHEMATICALLY that MUST mean that the odds of Covid19 passing from a single encounter is about 1/4 that of the cold or flu.
My GUESS is that Covid19 is ONLY spread by close aerosol contact – i.e. it is not spread indirectly – through surfaces.
Is that a fact ? No. It is just something I think is a likely explanation for the fact that Covid19 is contageous for much longer without having a higher spread rate.
CDC is not going to say that today. And I would not advise them to.
Further, CDC is near certain to recomend measures that even if probably not effective against Covid19 are effective against Colds and Flu’s.
Is that a bad thing ?
The Los Almost Simulations (and those in Guanzhou) are suggesting that the virus first appeared in mid November 2019 NOT Mid December.
They are also suggesting that China is misrepresenting the number of infections in china by a factor of between 8-20.
If that is the case the mortality rate is likely much lower than claimed.
The data from cruise ships also suggest much lower mortality rates.
The cruise ship data is extremely useful to modelers.
While there are factors that make it different from the general population – a completely isolated small environment with no travel and a recirculated HVAC system
It is also a controlled environment – the number of people is exactly known, the mortality rate is exactly known the age distributions are exactly known, the numbers who get infected are exactly known, the number with some kind of natural immunity is exactly known.
This allows calculating parameters like the R0 value much more accurately and then using those for the general population model.
I would further note though the Los Almost model is not accurately tracking specific numbers of infections – the model appears to be runing HOT so far.
It is predicting the locations of infections and their relative scale incredibly well.
Los Almost predicted every hot spot in the US to scale so far.
Should we instill biblical inerancy in the Los Almos models ?
No!
but it is not unreasonable to accept them as a best guess
I do not have a great deal of interest in the politics of Covid19.
I presume that those from WHO, CDC, NIH, …. the medical profession as a whole are going to do their jobs. And that to though they will make many mistakes, these are more the natural errors of government, not the results of politics.
I beleie that Trump is SLIGHTLY more likely to have agressively responded to this than Obama or Clinton. Covid19 ticks off two of Trump’s buttons.
First his germophobia, and 2nd his fixation on secure borders.
I did not like Trump’s speach last night. I thought he talked too fast, and I thought he fixated a bit too much on blaming China and now europe.
But despite those criticism’s I am not going into full blown TDS.
I do not think the speach mattered – what is it actually going to change ?
Covid19 is going to do whatever it is going to do.
Those people charged with trying to defeat it are going to do what they are going to do.
And success or failure has nothing to do with Trump’s speach.
It is possible, maybe probable that they will fail NO MATTER WHAT.
If Democrats and Republicans want to fight over this – whoppee.
If we do actually manage to contain this – Trump is going to get credit – even though that is not likely his responsibility.
If we fail, probably Trump gets the blame – even though I do not think failure has anything to do with who is president.
But I do not “feel sorry” for Trump – getting the blame comes with the job. Trump is a “big boy” and he knows that.
I think the press is terrifying the shit out of people.
But again I do not care much.
It is their credibility at stake.
I am a firm beleiver in a “free press”. I do not care that much of it is biased, political, innaccurate, …. I greately prefer the situation today – that many of you decry with lots and lots of voices most of which are partisan and wrong, than the 3 versions of the same center left pablum that I grew up with in the 60’s and 70’s.
I beleive in free speach and free press – even if that means tolerating “Der Sturmer” and Nazi’s.
Not only do I beleive in a free press but I think free speach is more than a “beleif”. I think it is a fundimental principle and that society as a whole will demonstrably fare worse the more speech – even “bad speech” even “hate speech” is curtailed.
The bad job the press is doing with politics and corona, and … is the price we pay for free speech.
I would note that TODAY, I can go online and I can find a dozen different estimates of the R0 value for Covid19 – AND the underlying arguments and data to support each.
In 1969 Huntley Brinkley, and Walther Cronkite would have each given me an identical answer. I would have not other source, I could not even easily get the information from CDC or WHO directly. My ability to try to reach a conclusion on my own would be ZERO.
If I decided that I did not trust what “the experts” were saying, any effort to analyse myself would necescarily be an uneductated guess – because there would be no information no data, beyond that of 3 homogenous news channels.
Are all your complaints about the press today true ? Sure. Still TODAY IS BETTER.
I have no interest in going back to being spoon fed what 3 networks think I should beleive.
Trump does not do well reading speeches off teleprompters especially when they are someone elses words. When the syntax is not his, he mumbles, stumbles and slurs words. His public speaking is effective only when its off the cuff and the words arranged in his normal arrangement. I suspect that speech was by speech writers given the issues to address.
Whatever it makes no difference. He is toast! And I bet you wont hear another word out of Obama that this economy started in his administration!
“he is toast!”
This is complex. I am not sure that is the case.
First the election is 8 months away.
It is unlikely this will be front and center that long.
Covid19 today does nto matter to the election
Nor does the economy.
How long this lasts, and how blame is apportioned matters.
Trump is already spinning this as a Chinese and European thing.
Faucci claims most US cases came from China or Europe.
The US daily newcases has been dropping since 3/2.
Unfortunately even CDC does not think the last 6 days are reliable yet.
But if US numbers are actually dropping, Trump is going to come off a hero.
It also matters how the US compares to other countries.
Europe is way way ahead of us, Italy is a disaster.
I think so long as the US does dramatically better than the rest of the world
Attacks on Trump fail.
Further the whole issue calls attention to Trump’s big talking points.
Borders and China.
Further who in their right mind think Biden could manage this ?
I accept/agree that there is a the posibility this could be Trump’s “waterloo”.
but that is not set yet.
When was the last time a president got elected in a sinking economy and rising unemployment?
Bush V. Kerry
GDP UI
First 37 Months Under Bush 2.10% 5.51%
Wasnt the election in nov 2004?
https://www.voanews.com/archive/us-economy-2004-registers-highest-growth-five-years
You asked, I googled your question. I posted the answer I got back from a web page that examined both numbers for every election since eisenhower.
All I can remember about Bush 2004 was being sure he would not get re-elected.
Switft boating, and being told no use president in wartime has ever lost.
Mostly I would like to forget Bush.
He was a decent person, but a lousy president.
Just to be clear – if in the next 8 months the economy goes seriously to Hell with no recovery in site Trump is probably Forked.
Though that could be mitigated if House Dems look like they are trying to make things worse.
i.e Trump is proposing a payroll tax cut and some stimulus.
If Pelosi thwarts that – Democrats will pay rather than Trump.
But I am more focused on Covid19.
the US currently has a bit over 1000 cases, and more than half of those are directly tied to foreign travel.
It is still in the realm of the possible that Trump contains this.
That complicates everything.
There is a very strong possibility this takes out the global economy no matter what.
Though the scale of the damage is not yet known.
Regardless, that will have a US impact, but the US economy is still much stronger than the global economy.
It is likely certain segments of the US economy take a hit no matter what – entertainment and hospitality. I do not think even a quick recovery is helping them.
Further we are already seeing some significant restructuring
My Daughter works at Target – they are being buried with orders.
But there has been a huge swing in online pickup orders.
It is early to tell because we are still “panic buying”.
That BTW has a net zero effect – buy all the toilet paper you want now.
you will just buy less later.
But it looks like people are NOT going to stop working and buying but alot are going to change HOW they do it.
This will give a huge boost to working from home and to internet sales and to order online pickup locally.
Despite “panic” people are being relatively smart.
They understand it is not leaving the driveway that is the problem, it is crowds of people that are the risk.
I am not sure how this is working in big cities.
And I have no idea what the effects of a large shift in the way that we work and make purchases will effect the economy.
I would also note that in Italy this hit the afluent sections hardest.
I strongly suspect that is because ordinary people do not engage in foreign travel.
I suspect that most Cases in the US are among more afluent people.
That is actually important – as it is more affluent people who are better able to work from home. And if this does not spread to less afluent families – this will have less effect on most US production.
But we are likely to see work rules – do not come in to work if you are sick PERIOD.
Especially at large workplaces.
Also there is alot that we do not know.
More than 900 of the US cases are listed on CDC as “monitored”.
I am not sure what that means. It may just be people that they are keeping track of who have not been infected.
There is a big fight between CDC, WHO and China over what counts as a case.
China is openly admitting to not counting people who test positive unless they have symptoms.
I am not sure but the US does not seem to be distinguishing between tests positive and merely exposed.
The doubling rate on this (absent intervention) is every 4 days.
That is what we need to keep track of.
I would really like to see a website listing currently active infections – that would give a better picture.
Current active cases is listed on the website I shared and USA is on the one you shared this morning.
The CDC site I linked listed 1200+ cases – which loosely tied with JHU.
But it divided those into three groups. Only two of which were clearly active.
The description for the 3rd group was something like “monitored”.
I do not know precisely what that means.
China has not been counting people who are not showing symptoms.
I am near certain the US is counting everyone who tests positive.
But I am suspicious that it is also counting people who have merely been exposed.
That could be a huge difference.
Further the peak US new cases per day was 40. I beleive based on an R0 of 2 over 10 days that means the peak active cases would be 200 (200 people at R0 2 would infect 400 over 10 days or 40/day).
Regardless, if the R0 value is currect you can closely approximate the # of active cases from the new case per day. But we have to be careful because the daily new case count gets adjusted over 8 days.
Page down..Active cases by country. They define active as infected.
https://virusncov.com
I read the CDC web page.
They are running a day behind everyone else.
However they explicity noted that there PUI number is not active cases.
Making perfect sense of their notes is near impossible
Prior to state reporting PUI’s are people under investigation.
It includes people who were exposed, tested and tested negative
But AFTER state reporting their numbers are based on the criteria the state uses.
Given that everybody else’s web sites are either based on CDC or more recently state reported data, I do not think anyone’s number of active cases is what most people would call “active”.
https://virusncov.com/
does not define “active”, neither does JHU,
CDC does not use Active.
They divide cases into Travel Related, Close contact and Under Investigation. With 988 “Persons Under Investigation” – and that number may or may not include people who have tested negative.
virusbcov website, second slide defines active as currently infected. Paging down provides country data
Look at the date and time updates. The last one was 3-13-2020.
https://virusncov.com
Ron my problem is not finding what the site says, it is what defintion is being used for Active,
and it is increasingly clear to me that Active in the US means anyone meeting the CDC criteria for exposure – even if they test negative.
Now it appears that is about to change – as CDC is relying on states to identify cases moving forward.
Regardless, to me Active means someone who ATLEAST tests positive.
And that does not appear to be the case.
Your site has the CDC;s definition of PUI.
a) being within approximately 6 feet (2 meters) of a COVID-19 case for a prolonged period of time; close contact can occur while caring for, living with, visiting, or sharing a health care waiting area or room with a COVID-19 case
– or –
b) having direct contact with infectious secretions of a COVID-19 case (e.g., being coughed on)
If such contact occurs while not wearing recommended personal protective equipment or PPE (e.g., gowns, gloves, NIOSH-certified disposable N95 respirator, eye protection), criteria for PUI consideration are met”
My reading of that is that most PUI’s are not active infections.
With respect to your assessment of my Covid19 posts.
There is no knowable at this moment absolute truth.
It is near certain that I am wrong.
Just as it is near certain that most everyone else speaking on the topic is wrong.
Absolutely everything I am posting is mathematics and logic – which in theory should result in absolute certainty.
But that is logic 101. In advanced logic (and physics) you encounter uncertainty, probability.
Math + logic + uncertainty results in probability. not absolute truth.
BTW this is not unique to Covid19. It is also true about nearly every other discussion on TNM.
Next, I have said this before repeatedly – but mathematics and logic – particulalry the type of mathematics and logic involved in most of our debates here, are the core of my life’s work over the past 40+ years. i am an embedded software developer – a pretty damn good one.
nearly all my work demands near perfection in those “logic 101” skills. If I do not get that right my project fail, usually obviously and catastrophically.
But a reasonable portion of my work deals with projects that heavily involve probability – more advanced logic. One of the best examples I can think of was a product to increase farmers productivity by shortening harvest times by allowing them to drive threshers as close as possible to the point at which they would fail, without ever exceeding that failure threshold.
My raw data for that project looked like random noise. When I first saw the plot of the raw data, I told my supervisor the project was not possible – atleast not in real time.
A week later I had invented new data filtering techniques to separate the signal from the noise that produced results on a $100 embedded device that matched the results of a $1m dynamo-meter The sensors the dynamo meter used were each more expensive than my entire project.
This is what I do, all the time. One month it is a system to measure the torque on farm equipment axles, another it is determining the precise distance between two computers using wireless packet times, another it is detecting radioactive materials at ports of entry or IAEA monitored reactors.
You certainly know much more than I about music, and are certainly more skilled at making it.
It is certain that you know more about biology, It is possible based on what you have said that you have a better understanding of statistics.
But it is highly unlikely that you are as able as I am at the mathematics, logic, and probability of using computers to model the real world particularly in real time.
Just about everything that any embedded computer system does is some form of computer modeling. Embedded computer systems do not exist in the real world, they use data from sensors to model the real world and quite often that data is messy.
If you have a self driving car that is making decisions based on the model of the real world it has constructed based on messy data from 50 sensors, you want that computer to get those decisions near perfect, even with really crappy data.
A biologist likely has a much better understanding of how virus’s spread by touch or aerosol
but if you give me enough data – without any understanding of the underlying biology, I can tell you with a very high degree of accuracy what portion of transmission is aerosol or touch.
Roby, I honestly don’t see anyone here, other than Jay, who has “a political axe to grind,” if, by that, you mean that anyone here would rather see the economy tank, our national security threatened and our way of life undermined, just so that his/her preferred candidate and party would have control of the government.
For years, we have mostly all said that things work better when there is open and free debate, consensus, and compromise.
The problem is that, before we can have consensus and compromise, we need to have the open and free debate, and that is no longer encouraged or tolerated I believe that both Obama and Trump began their presidencies believing that they could work with the oppostion party on certain things, and they both tried, in their own way, and failed.
Maybe it’s that the divide has become too great, and there is no consensus to be had. Maybe it’s that there is too little trust or good will on either side. Maybe it’s that we have crossed the rubicon of no longer having any guiding principles to determine the direction of the country, because only a minority of the country believes that the Constitution provides those principles. The rest think that the Constitution is a racist, 18th century rag, written by old white men who owned slaves.
Maybe it’s all of the above.
When Obama won in 2008. I prayed that everything I knew to be true was wrong, or that Obama would grow to fill the shoes of the president.
Unfortunately neither happened.
Republicans did not ruin Obama’s presidency.
If anything they prevented it from being much worse.
Regardless the possibility of Republicans and Democrats working together did exist during the Obama presidency.
But Obama prefered temporary ideological victories – ruling by the pen and the phone, to permanent accomplishments that come from getting the other party to buy in.
Trump had problems getting Republicans to work with him.
But since Democrats took the house, there goal has universally been to destroy him, not to solve problems The mexican Trade deal is just about the only thing that has managed to get democrats to work with this administration.
But there is another obstacle that is going to poison politcs for a very very long time.
Never in the entirety of US history has the outgoing president booby traped the president for his successor.
If you wish to pretend that Obama had no personal involvement in that – we will see.
But there is zero doubt that what was done was very wrong and never done before.
Before Trump was inaugurated the FBI knew there was no Trump/Russia collusion.
And yet we have had 3 years of bitter partisan investigations of NOTHING.
Both Bushes actively helped the new Clinton and Obama staff with their transition.
Both Clinton and Obama staff praised the Bush people for their help, despite being on opposite sides of politics.
We have known pretty much from day one that Yates and Rise and Powers and numerous others were actively working to make life as difficult as possible for Trump and his people.
Whenever it is that democrats return to the whitehouse, it is unlikely they will get the same help as they got from the Bush’s.
Nor are republican members of congress likely to forget either.
There was absolutely no precident for this.
And there is likely to be bitter repercussions for a generation or more.
Once upon a time free speach was a value that was held dear by liberals.
The ACLU and Alan Derschowitz were the legal tip of the spear defending the free speach of hated people, of Nazi’s and atheists, and pornographers.
The Berkeley Free Speech movement was founded by liberal protestors.
Today we have the strongest censorship movement in US history. Today a substantial portion of those on the left seek to do something that has never been done in the US before to shutdown the free expression of political ideas.
Near the start of the 19th century progressive supreme court Justices like Brandeis told us that Speech was so precious that the only remedy for vile and hateful speech was more speach.
Today the left seeks to silence all dissent – even the dissent of their own.
I am an embedded software developer. I have played a bit part in the Free Software movement. i know people like Richard Stallman and Eric Raymond personally – I have emailed them many times over the past few decades sometimes in agreement and sometimes to debate a point.
For 40+ years Free Software has been one of the greatest meritocracies in the world.
9 Months ago Linus Torvalds was forced out of his position as maintainer of the Linux Kernel.
For hurting the feelings of devleopers whose submissions did not meet the quality standards of the linux Kernel. Fortunately cooler heads prevailed and after a few weeks Linus returned.
But insurgents who had almost nothing to do with the creation of Linux and very little to do with more than 20 years of continuous improvement nearly stole it from all of us, because their feelings were hurt.
This Fall Richard Stallman was removed as the head of the Free Software Foundation.
Stallman created the FSF for probably a decade he WAS the FSF – there was no one else. No Free Software would exist without Stallman. Stallman is a real world lefty – or atleast a 1980’s real world lefty. This is a guy who has been to Palestein and met with and advocated for Palestinians. Stallman has been politically active, but he kept Politics out of the FSF.
The only political position of the FSF was their unrelenting position on software freedom, and Stallman has been the worlds strongest advocate for that.
Stallman too made the mistake of presuming that the Free Software Foundation was a meritocracy, and that you were judged by the quality of your code, not your pronouns.
Stallman was removed from the FSF for the crime of not tolerating fools.
Just recently Eric S. Raymond – who write the influential book “the Cathederal and the Bazzar” which is considered the manefesto of the Open Source movement (Open Source is slightly less radical than free software), Eric was again for decades the founder and head of the Open Source Initiative – basically the less radical cousin to the Free Software Foundation.
Within the past few weeks Eric was removed as head of the OSI – again for offending snowflakes and assuming that the world of open source was still the meritocracy that brought us all of this fantastic free and open source software.
Denis Prager has a quote “The left destroy’s everything”‘
Linus, Richard and Eric – though politically quite different – Linus is pretty apolitical, Richard is pretty far left (for the 80’s) and Eric is an Anarcho-capitalist, but they shared one trait that got them into trouble. They assumed that even if the world was not that the world of free and open source software was a meritocracy. Not a political platform.
Linus, Richard and Eric each have a decades long history of posts, that are very similar to my posts here. Driven by reason, logic, facts focused on the quality of what you offer, not your feelings. And not particularly tolerant of fools, or those who wanted to make everything about some emotional issue.
The left destroys everything.
1984 was supposed to be a dystopic warning. It was not supposed to be prophecy.
Emmanuel Goldstein was supposed to be a fictional character – even in 1984.
Today he is real, every week is “hate week”, and freinds and enemies are as interchangeable as they were in 1984.
“I would love to see Trump, congress and the media stop their politicking and present a united front right now. Nothing has happened that could not be dealt with if we come together and don’t panic.”
Why do you presume this can be dealt with ? We have never succeeded in stoping the cold, the flu, a huricane, or tornado.
Why does a united front matter ? Are we somehow assured of being right, if we all agree ?
I have a great deal of hope this will end relatively well.
But that hope is not based on known facts – far too many facts/attributes of this are at best probabilities with large error bars, and that is not a solvable problem.
We are not at a point at which we can derive the R0 or mortality of a virus from its Gnome. Until we are, all assessments of those factors will be derived empiracally – which fundimentally means we will not know them with certainty until this is long over.
Very shortly we will dramatically increase our knowledge of the most critical aspect of this.
China appears to have this under control. They are starting to relax many of the measures they have taken to contain this. It will not take very long to determine whether they have succeeded or not.
If Covid19 continues to decline in China after the Chinese return to normal, it is likely that the US will gain and maintain control.
The alternate is that fairly quickly Chinese Covid19 cases start rising again.
If that occurs then US actions merely buy time, and the only choice short of allowing this to run its course is the hope that we quickly develop a vaccine.
Most of all I am talking about economics. More people will likely be ruined from this financially that will die from it.
Roby, please elaborate. Are you saying those that die will be the ones financially ruined?
If so, most that will die are over 80, covered by Medicare.
“Most of all I am talking about economics. More people will likely be ruined from this financially that will die from it.”
Wow! We are really grooving together.
Are you able to grasp that sufficient economic damage outweighs the loss of a life – because economic losses ARE a form of lost lives (or more accurately wasted lives).
If we could reduce automobile fatalities by 1000 every year by reducing the speed trucks travel at to 5mph, should be do that ?
Are you able to understand that the economic losses in doing so are the SAME as lost lives ?
With specific respect to Covid19 – it is entirely possible that the wisest course of action would be to do absolutely nothing, to allow the disease to spread through the entire population as quickly as possible. killing however many it kills and then be done with it. The rest of us would develop natural immunity and it would likely never return. But the economic damage would likely be far less. And that reduction in economic damages represents real lives and the reduced economic loss measured in lives could be greater than the number of dead ?
I am not aware of anyone making that argument now. And it could be the wrong choice.
but it is possible that it isn’t.
And at a more complex level – efforts to thwart Covid19 could be the worst choice TODAY.
But what if we blow 5% of global GDP thwarting Covid19 AND FAIL, But what we learn enables us to stop similar viruses dead in the future ? What if it brings us a step close to killing off the cold or flu ?
At what point are the future benefits of knowledge from a failed effort to thwart COVID19 larger than the short term cost ?
Ron my fear is that this will equal the crisis of 2007. We are head towards a state of lockdown, economic activity is already cascading downward. As well, I have watched the Dow grimly as people are losing a lot of money and some people are losing more than they can afford to lose. That will affect mortality. That is my meaning. I hope I am wrong. I wouldn’t put money in the stock market myself for anything. Its just gambling.
I hope I am wrong, but being in a state of nobody go anywhere is a pretty severe economic event. Empty jets flying over the country, schools closed, the NBA season cancelled? Its entirely possible to me that economic fallout will kill a lot more people than biological fallout.
If Sanders could get elected the economy would tank, who would that hurt most of all, the upper quintile? No, the lower quintile. Its the same with this.
Roby, when I reread your original comment, I see where the “that” should have been “than” and that is what confused this old mind.
I agree with you that this could match 2007-8 in some respects. But I think it is closer to the 2001 recession than 2007-8. That was caused by failing banks that were forced to make home loans at sub prime rates to individual unqualifed for normal loans. In addition, banks did not have reserves to support a financial downturn of that nature
Today the economy is strong. We may go intovrecession, but I suspect the same thing will happen as in 2001-2. 12 months after 9-11, growth returned. I suspect that will happen again, with unemployment reaching 6% before that happens. I dont expect the same growth in 2021 as was occuring before this crisis because Biden will return to more government regulation, more controls on the energy sector and more envirormental controls. But we should see 1%-2% in 2021.
By the way, those that lose money are the ones selling now. The ones making money are the ones buying a little every few days. Yes, if one converted retirement cash into stocks a few days ago, they lost temporarily.
Mostly I agree with you with the same caveat I directed at Ron.
The stock market is NOT the economy, it is an indicator, a measure of the economy.
When a stock rises or falls it means that the value of the company backing that stock has risen or fell – or atleast we beleive that it has risen of fallen.
One of the misperceptions of the great depression and the “great recession” is that the stock market caused something.
That is like saying the tape measure caused the building to collapse.
The cause of the great recession was the collapse in the value of homes.
You can not remove $1t of wealth from americans without eventually having consequences elswhere.
From the collapse of the housing on a recession was inevitable. There are choices government made that made that recession worse and longer.
But the cause was not the stock markets.
Stock markets are a warning sign, they are not the economy itself.
The reasons stock markets rise and fall is that the reflect the high likelyhood of future loss or growth in production and consumption.
Sanders does not tank the market, it is the expectation that production and consumption will be negatively impacted.
Since you like Polls.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/287633/approval-congressional-republicans-tops-democrats.aspx
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israeli-research-center-to-announce-it-developed-coronavirus-vaccine-sources-say-1.8665074
Roby, you commented to Dave that you believe politicians should be and could eliminate competing plans, that you can see/hear others discounting this, etc.
I agree that this should be possible, but I also think that is highly unlikely. There are no Reagan/O’neill informal meeting. There are no Clinton/Gingrich desires for a targeted outcome (balanced budget). I believe that this huge division in politics began with McConnell and doing everything possible to make Obama a one term president. That continues today with Pelosi. With her leadership, she will agree to little the GOP wants and McCarty accused Pelosi that the bill submitted for approval was written by Pelosi’s staff without anyone elses input.
This is not coming together. It isa result of two things. Political grandstanding to make Trump a one term president, which in my mind is almost sealed and delivered and two, a fast bill so they can take their two week schefuled vacation beginning Friday.
There are no moderates to speak of in government and the ones there have no voice/influence. The only fix to this mess is term limits which have 0 chance of reality because that ends careers in fongress presently there.
Maybe the average American will wake up with this shock and see what the real problem is and some positive changes might happen. I have little hope it will since I think the 2920 electiin will result in democrats in charge of all wings of government. That will just further enrage the right, further dividing the country and resulting in parties moving further left and right.
Financially the country will recover much of the wall street loses within 18-24 months. What we wont recover from is social divisiins which will only grow.
Nooo!
there is almost never that I want republicans and democrats to get along.
Our government was deliberately designed to have power only when super majorities could agree – with the explict expectation that would be rare.
Grid lock is GOOD.
The stock market is a predictor of the economy – it is not the economy itself.
The losses do to Corona are forever – just as the losses from reduced growth under Obama are forever.
What we do not produce over the next several months is gone. Any lost growth is gone for good, Future growth is not a replacement for past lost growth unless the future growth is above what would have occured naturally.
The negative impact on our standard of living may be small(over the long run, it could be bad in the short run) but it will last the rest of our lives
Since Jay thinks ZeroHedge is a group of Nazi’s that no one should trust, here is an article on Modeling Covid19 from ZeroHedge based on work done at Los Almos.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/los-alamos-experts-warn-covid-19-almost-certainly-cannot-be-contained-project-44-million
Here is a US specific source of information that provides substantially more detailed information about Covid19 in the US.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
Detailed world info:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
China has stalled – if they are not lying too much.
It also appears that outside of China this has also stalled – though the leveling is only a short period it will take longer to be sure
So, my semi-famous brother in law is currently directing a tv series that shoots in Chicago. He was home last weekend (home is in L.A) and then flew back to Chicago on Monday.
When he got back, he discovered that one of the grips had tested positive for covid19 and was recovering at home.
My BIL immediately called my nephew’s school, to tell them. My nephew is a sophomore in HS, and his class had left Monday morning for a 4-day camping trip.
The school called back the trip, transporting my nephew separately from the other kids. He is now to stay home for a minimum of 2 weeks, and the school is discussing a complete shutdown.
Now, I am not being critical of the school’s decision. Given the irrational panic that’s been whipped up over this, I would probably have made a similar call. And I do understand that although kids seem to have a level of immunity from the effects of the virus, there is the possibility that they can be carriers, and potentially infect others.
But most everything about this virus is now subject to a level of overreaction, the likes of which I have never seen….
We agree. The level of overreaction will continue to amplify in this era of instantaneous mass media. Panic spreads faster than the rumor propelling it.
The natural incentives of the meadia and government are to slightly overstate the risks.
That is just how it is. You can not fix it.
I do not like what the media says, what the experts say, what Trump says.
They are ALL atleast slightly exagerating the risk.
But even those remarks do not justify the public panic.
But that too is a natural tendency of humans.
“Panic spreads faster than the rumor propelling it.”
That it does, for sure.
The models from Loss Almos predict a worst case unchecked of roughly 1/4 the infections of the flu and roughly 4 times the deaths of the flu.
That is bad. but it is not unprecedented. And that is the Worst Case Worst Case of 285 computer simulations.
Yes we are over reacting.
At the same time my wife and I are both over 60 and have slightly higher than normal risk factors. We are being very careful about how we “roll the dice” with something that if we get sick has a small but very real possibility of killing us. And as there are two of us the odds of one of us dying from this are twice as high.
We are shopping when the stores are less crowded, and avoiding crowds as much as possible. Both of us primarily work from home. My wife’s work has already recomended that all employees take greater oportunities to work from home.
So Mueller failed to provide exculpatory evidence of the trump tower meeting in his report.
Not one person atteing the Trump tower meeting has disagreed about the meeting.
Not one person has indicated that Clinton was even mentioned.
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2020/03/12/buried_from_trump_tower_meeting_translators_avowal_of_no_collusion_122774.html
I agree 2001 is a better model.
Those evil Republicans Slurring Biden’s competence!!!!
Video is Unavailable…
Was it another fraudulent doctored video per chance, pulled by the server?
Don;t know your problem. I clicked on the Link from your reply, and went straight to it.
Go to youtube and search
“Cenk Uygur suggests establishment will replace failing Biden at convention”
The video is from the Hill’s “The Rising”
Do you think Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti and the hill produce “fraudulent doctored video”
And you and twitter need to learn what “doctored” is.
Nice cherry picking video from a Bernie supporter.
I think Biden should call off remaining debate(s). Best for Dems not to have more televised ‘squabbling’ (keeping it in Rick’s lede). Certainly better for Biden, whose primary lead is widening (Florida poll today shows him with staggering 44-point lead over Sanders).
Biden should save his debate energy for Trump. If fate takes a hand, Donnie will show up wearing virus hazard suit and helmet, and Biden can ask Donnie if he regrets dragging his feet so slowly and reluctantly in reacting to the outbreaks 😷?
Democrats get to decide how to run their own elections.
If Biden does not want to debate Sanders and thinks he can still win the nomination, then he should do so.
But your “saving his energy” comment is telling – Biden needs Sander defeated quickly, Because Biden does not have the capacity for a long drawn out election.
We all know that.
I also think Trump should schedule as many debates as he can.
As you said Biden needs to “save his energy” to debate Trump.
You say Trump reacted slowly ? The US was the FIRST country to shut down Chinese Travel. It is near certain that Chinese efforts to control Covid19 would have been much weaker but for Trump.
The fact that this has not already effected Millions is something the entire world should Thank Trump for.
H1N1 – which infected 31M in the US alone and killed 19000 in the US alone was first identified (in the US) on Mar. 9 2009, Obama Declared a state of emergency in Oct 2009.
Already there were thousands of deaths and millions of infections.
No attempt at all was made at containment.
There are more Covid19 test kits available right now than there were H1N1 Test Kits in Nov 2009.
We are attempting to do something that has never been done before – contain an aersol spread virus with more than a few infected people.
Again that has NEVER been done. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. It is possible we will fail.
Are you really going to shame Trump for failing at something no one has ever managed before ?
Are you really trying to claimTrump has been slow at the switch when he reacted 4 times faster than Obama and atleast twice as fast as any other world leader ?
BTW what is it that you think Trump should have done differently ?
There is no cure. there is no vaccine – though we are close to one than we were at the same time with H1N1 and likely will have one faster if the CDC and FDA do not get cold feet.
We have testing available far faster than ever before.
Some loopy Democrats is advocating that the US govenrment pay for testing for all 330m americans.
To accomplish what ?
We need to test those people actually exposed – that is under 2000 people, and those they may have had contact with – we have 4m tests kits available – is that not enough ?
We have 1m available last week.
You say Trump has failed – what is it that he is supposed to do ? Magic ?
Dave, many are blaming Trump for a “slow response”. But the greatest reason supporting that position was the lack of test kits.
What few comment is policies that have been in effect for years created that problem. Lifer government employees creating a ineffective response to the creation of tests. While Korea had walk-in test locations and Australia had drive-in locations for days, if not close to a month, we are still grappling with distributing these things. There is no excuse for this! YES,it happened on Trumps watch, but the decisions leading to this issue occurred years ago.
I have no idea what a government fix would be so something like this incompetence did not occur again and in other agencies. The government way says throw money at the issue. Had this been allowed to occur in the private sector earlier, we would be testing many more today than we are.
But shifting most activities to competent private sector entities threatens government employment. just mention cutting a budget and its a death sentence to an elected officials career. It will never happen.
The test kit claim is nonsense.
First exactly the same complaint was made regarding Obama’s handling of H1N1,
It is crap. A “test kit” is just a bunch of cotton balls on a stick. A test consists of getting a swab of the throat nose and eyes. and sending it to a lab. Aside from sterile packaging that is it.
There is an issue RIGHT now in that there are not enough certified Labs. The CDDC can do the test, but states and private labs are not properly trained yet.
Further this virus is especially hard to test for – experience from China indicates a very high number of BOTH false positives and false negatives.
Finally – what is the purpose of the test kit ?
If you are sick – you should “self quarantine”, and notify your doctor,
and if your symptoms match – you are going to get tested.
And if you test positive – they are going to quarantine everyone who has had contact with you.
If your have been exposed to someone with Covid19 – you should self quarantine.
The primary purpose of the test kit is to distinction sick people with Covid19 from sick people without it.
Testing millions of people – DOES NOTHING and overburdens the labs testing people who with near certainty do not have Covid19.
If we are going to stop this we must focus resources on the people who actually have the disease, as well as the relatively small number who they have exposed.
If we get to nationwide testing – we have long past lost this.
There are 5 million test kits available today.
The worst case scenario at this moment there are possibly 10,000 people in the entire country who MAY have been exposed.
If we cast a really broad net – that is 100,000 people
THOSE are the people we need to test. Especially if they are sick.
We have a very narrow window to “contain” every day that goes by that window gets smaller.
Test kits have NOTHING to do with addressing this problem.
Right now if you send a test kit to a lab – they prioritize people who are sick and they have reason to beleive were exposed. If you are not in that group – it could take a long time before your tests are run. That might sound bad – but that is the right choice.
The entire Test kit nonsense is a straw man.
Again – I am not one prone to defend government, but you are wrong.
The test kits are mostly a red herring. A straw man.
The objective is to reduce the spread rate of the disease.
how do test kits accomplish that ?
If you are sick – you should stay home – and away from others.
You should call your doctor. If your symptoms match – you will get tested.
If you have good reason to beleive you might have been exposed.
You should self quarantine.
Even if you were tested and did not test positive – you would STILL have to self quarantine.
If you were exposes it could take 10 days to test positive.
What we do not want right now is 330M people demanding a test.
The entire system would collapse. We do not have the resource, CAN NOT have the resources and SHOULD not have the resources to test 330m people in a few days.
And that is if the reliability of the test were really good – and it is not.
And the reliability will be even worse if we rush train every medical lab in the country.
One of the things I worked out from that CC website is that CDC is not testing all that many people. They are spending their time trying to identify who was exposed. THAT is the priority. If we could quarantine every single person who was exposed right now – that would stop this entirely in 14 days.
I am pretty sure at this point the number of “active cases” in the US is NOT people who are sick or tested positive. It is people the CDC has identified as having been exposed.
Test kits is a non-issue – tracking people is the big issue – the odds of succeeding at stopping this diminish with each doubling. The time it takes to go from exposure to sick is too long for test kits to be useful, not to mention it takes 48 hours min to turn a test kit, and even if you test negative you MUST still self quarantine.
I am sure CDC etc if making mistakes. Government always makes mistakes.
I am also sure that if they made no mistakes – they could have stopped this already.
But in the real world perfection does not exist.
This is a task that mostly belongs to government.
If you want to have tests done by private labs – I think that is fine. But testing is NOT the primary issue.
The biggest mistake thus far WAS TRUMPS, It was not closing the boarders – especially air travel sooner. And Trump was the FIRST of western leaders to do so.
I am not going to blame him too much there. Obama certainly never reacted as quickly.
At this time the US is still dealing with this far better than the rest of the world.
Probably about 4 times better – possibly more, Remember the equivalent to the US – is NOT Germany, but almost the entire EU and they have about 40 times the number of cases we do.
I am not sure that other countries – atleast those in the norther hemisphere are going to gain control of this. But the US still stands a chance.
There is also a hemispheric factor to this – as with all colds and flu. The reason that colds are called colds is because they mostly occur in winter.
The norther hemisphere is headed to spring and summer, the southern hemisphere is headed to fall and winter.
We do not know exactly why colds and flu’s spike in the winter – we think it has to do with the spread of viruses in cold dry air. But it could have to do with vitamin D or several other posibilities.
But we still know this is true, and it is likely true of Covid19.
Obama got a huge brack from H1N1 because the first case was in March and it was not pandemic until late April and summer was just arround the corner. H1N1 did not spread nearly as fast over the summer and by fall Vaccines and other resources were available.
This will likely go the same. Except that we are working much harder to actually stop it.
Something we have NEVER DONE on this scale before.
I am having a great deal of trouble understanding why everyone is fixated on blame when we are attempting and may succeed at something never before done. Stopping an aerosol virus.
Even if we fail – it is likely we will have improved our skills enough we will not fail next time.
What I am seeing looks to me more like the begining of the end for large classes of viral diseases.
Dave, test kits ARE a major probleml
https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-south-koreas-trace-test-000248742.html
Read this! They get results in hours, not days. Their company developed this two weeks ago. They have had drive thru testing for days to avoid people contact. Ours is still limited and take days.
And your comment about training, etc at labs taking time to develop is incorrect. The people working in PRIVATE SECTOR labs are intelligent people. They have used testing for years. Something like this is a 3-4 hour professional training education program, not days.
There are too many layers of approvals in government in crisis like this. A company develops a test kit, it goes to FDA. FDA reviews and approves test. That is sent to CDC, CDC reviews, issues guidelines on testing, labs prepare applications to begin testing, CDC reviews applications, and may do site visits, approves kabs and then labs issue notifications they are open for testing.
There are too many fiefdoms. Just try changing a process and all hell breaks lose. Try cutting a budget like the CDC W as cut from around $8B to $7.3B in 2019 and opposing politicians will jump on that, especially with what is happening today. No one looks at the agencies line item budget to see that 85%-90% of that cut was in the buildings and maintenance category which has nothing to do with health. Did they sell old buildings, signed fix energy cost contracts, etc.
The first thing anyone that does not support a politician will do is jump all over the cut. They wont spend the time educating themselves to understand the issue.
Ron.
South Korea has 4 times the infections we have in a country one 7th our size.
In otherwords their problem right now is 28 times ours.
SK is not where we should be looking for examples of how to do this right.
Next you say many things about SK’s Testing, but you do not actually say whether their results are reliable.
This appears to be a very tricky test, it is aparently very easy to make small mistakes that result in either false positives or false negatives.
As I noted in previous posts – the actual value of Covid19 testing as a tool to thwart the spread is minimal – it may even have a negative value, if a person who is tested negative before the virus takes hold returns to the community believing they are not infected.
The primary value of the test is to rule out Covid19 in people who are sick – most of whom have the flu or a cold, so that we do not chase down their contacts and quarantie people exposed to the flu or cold rather than Covid19.
If you are tested and you test negative – that is near useless. It is false reassurance.
If you have no good reason to beleive you were exposed you have no good reason to be tested at the moment.
If you have good reason to beleive you were exposed you should do exactly the same things regardless of the results of a test – self quarantine.
You believe what you want. Others will believe Trump created the problem. I will believe what I see as a problem. If one test that was not performed could have prevented, using you numbers, rounded, then that could have prevent 2,’which then became 4 and ……
CDC lifers screwed up. Government delaying labs getting certification is another bad regulation. If a lab has CLIA certification, then they should get approval without review. Some lifer at CDC should not be delaying it days to make their jobs important!
Just a couple days ago American cases were @ 1000. Today they are 2500. How many more are not identified due to delays in lab approvals? Who knows how many cases we wll end up with. I suspect many more than China since we cant use the Draculian policies they used. Since we went up 1.5 times in 2-3 days, it wont take long.
i understand that spin to some extent trumps facts.
We see that all the time here.
I would note that Trump may get the blame.
But he also may get the credit.
Whether he deserves it or not.
It is still in the realm of possibility that we stop this.
I an carefully checking the CDC’s daily numbers regularly.
You have to be careful because the last 10 day numbers are nebulous, They do not add the cases until they test positive, but when they add them the record them on the day they were reported not the positive test day.
We have had a couple of days in the 70’s.
The daily count should double every 2-4 days.
When it does not, we have reached the inflection point.
You say Trump will get the blame – at what point ?
10K cases and 100 deaths ? 100K cases and 1000 deaths ?
1M cases and 10000 deaths ?
Jay is not prepared to bet the US will have 70M cases – neither am I.
But I beleive Europe will have about 4-10 times more than the US.
The only country that I think will do better is Japan – and they are hygene nuts NORMALLY.
I was in Japan in December, and 1/3 of the people were wearing masks.
Regardless, at what level is this a Trump disaster ? At what level is it a Trump victory ?
Faucci is talking 2-4 months before containment – and he really seems to beleive we are going to accomplish that.
Again that will be something that HAS NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE.
I Think Trump gets a small win at 1M cases and 10K deaths.
That is half the deaths of Swine flu and 1/60 of the cases.
While you are correct the press can beat on Trump daily, and it may hurt him,
The effects are still temporary. And the bigger a deal the press and the left make of this, the bigger of a deal it is if Trump averts disaster.
You are correct that if this goes badly – Trump does not get re-elected.
It is also true that if it goes well Trump significantly extends his win.
I agree there were screwups.
I expect that from government.
I am sure the press will make hay of it.
But as I said before – testing has very little to do with containing the disease.
If Trump fails at that – Testing fails will just be the thing that is blamed.
If he succeeds, it does not matter what the Press fixates on.
I am near certain based on the CDC web site that the numbers – 1000, 2000, …
Are the number of confirmed AND suspected cases.
Testing fails do not impact the numbers – and will not have a consequence until the numbers are very high.
Think about the problem.
How do you stop this ?
You stop this by tracing the infected people, and getting everyone they have been in contact with to self quarantine.
Essentially that is what China did – except that the chinese quarantine was forced.
Once the numbers go beyond our ability to trace each new cases contacts – we are done.
The virus can not really be stopped.
Once we exceed the ability to trace contacts, testing does not matter.
If you only isolate those that test positive – you are behind the 8 ball and you will never stop this. You MUST isdolate everyone who has been exposed – regardless of testing.
You can not beat this by mass testing the population/
Ron,
I agree with your argument that ultimately the free market can do testing better.
Further I am not seeking to block them from doing so – and I would join you in opposing laws and regulations that make that more difficult.
Early in the Covid19 cycle I thought that testing was important.
I could argue that the Trump administration is doing pretty well in that regard.
But the more I looked into this the more obvious it became that Testing is more of a PR matter than an effective control tool.
A test can not tell that you were exposed.
If you were exposed the test can not reliably tell if you are safe.
The primary information that is being relied on is
Are you sick ?
Were you exposed ?
And the latter is determined from the former.
The only truly beneficial use of testing is on actually sick people to determine if they have Covid19 or a cold or the flu.
And we do that so that we can identify everyone they have come in contact with and get them to self quarantine.
I would not be so effusive about private testors. You constantly rant about the ignorance of voters. Guess what in the real world voters have jobs – many of them are lab testors.
I would agree that the inccentives to get things right are better privately than in govenrment,
But wendy’s rarely gets my order right, and a few years ago my orthopedic surgeon operated on my to correct a tear in my shoulder based on an MRI, and when he operated found there was no tear.
I may beleive the free market is better than all alternatives.
But I do not presume it is perfect.
The world is not perfect, and our means of dealing with whatever we encounter can not depend on perfection or we are screwed.
I did not expect Obama to handle H1N1 perfectly and he did not. But I did not piss all over him for that. I do not expect Trump to handle Covid19 perfectly – or anything else.
I do expect him to do better.
Further, in these things I do not think that either Trump or Obama are the difference.
There is a massive government health bureaucracy handling this. ‘
They know what they are doing – MOSTLY, and if they do not – the person who is currently president is not going to fix that.
At the same time the current president – is getting the credit/blame regardless.
And I do not have a problem with that.
A “test kit” is a bunch of cotton swabs and sterile containers. that is why they have millions of them so fast.
The actual limiting resources is not the kits, it is the availability of labs to perform the tests.
Ultimately I would ask a different question.
If you have 1000 people – do you put them on finding the contacts of exposed people and getting them to self quarantine ? Or do you put them on testing walkins who are scared ?
After that – if you are given $1B dollars and told to expand – where do you put that money ?
More investigators to track contacts down and get them to self quarantine ? Or more labs to test test kits ?
Given my current understanding of this, I would:
Allow private companies to do whatever they wanted.
Have government independently develop sufficient resources to test quickly every person who is infected with a flu or cold like disease.
Expand the number of investigators to track down every recent potential contact of any person that is known to be infected, and as many of those possibly infected as possible, because we have to move as fast as possible. I would not wait for lab confirmation of exposure before identifying contacts and telling them to self quarantine.
You will note – that what I would do with whatever resources you throw at me would not feature testing. Because testing is not that important, and only relevant for those who have symptoms.
Dave “The actual limiting resources is not the kits, it is the availability of labs to perform the tests”
I have addressed this already along with the training
Those at the top of ALL large orgainizations – including the president, require a collection of attributes.
A large base of broad knowledge to begin with.
The ability to absorb information quickly.
The ability to make excellent choices on subjects they know little about based on minimal information.
In business you get to be CEO – because you have a track record of doing exactly those things.
It is also those skills that we should look for in a president.
One of the distinctions between presidents, and legislators and judges is that the president has the most power to deal with things that must be decided quickly.
When time exists to put extensive thought into decisions – the president should have less power.
Dave “A large base of broad knowledge to begin with.
The ability to absorb information quickly.
The ability to make excellent choices on subjects they know little about based on minimal information.
In business you get to be CEO – because you have a track record of doing exactly those things.”
There is one HUGE, BIG, GIGANTIC………difference between operating a successful large corporation and govt. is the quality of individuals working at the business. They have proven themselves and have advanced through their careers and become trusted advisers to the CEO. Likewise, those advisers have managers they trust on down to line employees. In each level, if you have reached your level of incompetence, most will be replaced.
It does not work that way in government. If I am a agency director, not appointed, and I have an individual under me that is slow or makes some questionable decisions, it is nearly impossible to replace them. They reach their level of incompetence and stay there for years until they decide to quit or retire. That is what a president is stuck with in agencies like the CDC.
The difference you note is relevant to efficiency – Govenrment likely has about 4 times the number of people actually necescary to do any job.
So Government is inneficient. And a new leader can not fundimentally change that.
I agree.
But that has absolutely no effect on the skills needed to most effectively do the job.
The same skills needed to be the CEO of a large business are those needed to be president.
What do you want to shift to the private sector ?
Testing ? Fine – go for it. I would completely eliminate any federal regs on testing and let private labs figure out how to test and compete against each other.
We already know private competition is the route to cheap fast and reliable.
But testing is not going to stop this sucker.
The big deal is hunting people who were exposed down and getting them to self quarantine.
Are you prepared to give that power to private entities ?
I am not.
Pelosi demanded free testing in the aide package.
Trump wisely chose not to die on that hill.
But Pelosi’s logic was twisted
“how can we fight this if we do not know who is infected”
The testing is a feel good measure – and potentially one that may cause more harm than good.
It you are in a room close to a person who has Covid19, it could take as much as 14 days before you show symptoms. It could take 4-10 days before you test positive.
Further you could get either a false positive or a false negative from this test.
What should YOU or the CDC do differently based on your test results ?
Do you get quarantined if you were in that room with that infected person if you immediately test negative ?
What about after 4 days ? 10 days ?
To stop this we must isolate those who have been exposed – meaning in the close presence of someone with the disease. NOT merely those who test positive.
The fundimental purpose of the test is to confirm the virus in those who are sick so that we can look for others they might have infected and isolate them.
And even there – the purpose is to not waste resources hunting for people who were exposed to someone who has the cold or the flu rather than Covid19.
“But shifting most activities to competent private sector entities threatens government”
Absolutely – but it does NOT threaten Trump.
Trump MUST defeat this to get re-elected.
He owes little or nothing to government employees.
Further he need not choose between government and private action.
All he needs do is echo Mao – “Let a hundred flowers bloom”
I would further note that Trump has never show reluctance to fire people or change directions.
We are almost litterally seeing “the apprentice” and Trump should revert to that model of problem solving.
***CORONAVIRUS CURE ON THE WAY!**8
(but you have to wait until april 9th)
Pres. Obama and some of his people hung out with Farukahn, Sharpton, and Wright – as well as people associated with Hezbolla.
Are we going to keep up this Some whitehouse person went somewhere where there were alot of people including some nutjobs, nonsense ?
As to Trump sending mixed messages:
So What ?
Do you actaully beleive there is someone who KNOWS exactly what will happen ?
I will guarantee you that if 10 people predict 10 different things one of them will be right.
We have addressed this repeatedly here already.
Contra claims otherwise WE DO NOT KNOW what is going to happen.
The best estimates vary radically. Los Almos which has over the past 10 years gotten very good at virus projections has a worst case that is pretty bad by FAR LOWER than most of what I am hearing socalled experts saying – and that is their worst case.
There best cases is about 4 times what we have right now if China is telling the truth and twice what we have now if china is lying by a factor of 2 which is likely.
Los Almost best case projection has been running almost perfectly at about double what China admits to.
Given that no one actually knows the truth – how is it that Trump could be misinforming people ?
ALL of the advice that the CDC, NIH, WHO is giving out is pretty close to exactly the same advice they give out for the flu.
Though Even the CDC is starting to share “touch” spreading – which increasingly appears to NOT be a means of spread for COVID19.
If COVID19 can not be spread by touch, that would explain how you can have a long period in which someone is contageous, but still a Low R0 value.
Remember the R0 value for measles is 19.
You can’t help it.
You have no power to control it.
WHATABOUTISM has you by the scrotum.
Point out YOUR hypocracy is a positive service to mankind – whatever you call it.
Hypocracy is a real word – and it is what I am exposing.
Whataboutism is not a real word. It was made up by hypocrits to deflect from their hypocracy.
You are a hypocrite
You can’t help it.
You have no power to control it
Hypocrisy has you by the scrotum.
Why should we give a damn what people who hold others to standards they do not hold themselves to beleive ?
Why should we give a dam what people who hold their friends to more lenient standards than their opponents think ?
I can not think of a reason.
I do not give a frank about “whataboutism”.
“Today, the Trump administration stood by a proposed cut of $9.5 billion to HHS, including a 15 percent cut of $1.2 billion to the CDC and a $35 million decrease to the Infectious Diseases Rapid Response Reserve Fund.”
Good news for Dems. Whose 2020 Campaign Slogan will be: TRUMP KILLED GRAND MA!
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/486817-trump-budget-chief-holds-firm-on-cdc-cuts-amid-virus-outbreak
Jay, Budget info.
Please provide details on line item changes to HHS and CDC. You can cut most all government agencies 10% and have no impact what-so-ever on any of them. if you can only regurgitate some ones tweet or some article that does not detail which programs are cut, then your just blowing smoke out your rear.
But we cant fix stupid and stupid are those that dont take the time to verify data before using it.
Trump just signed a bill to spend 8.5B to fight COVID19.
And you are going to whine because 35M or the 9.5B cuts to HHS are to infectuous diseases ?
Tell you what – we will reduce the 8.5B to 8.465 and put the 35m back.
QUESTION: if Trump resigned tonight, how big a jump could we expect in the Stock Market?
It would drop, because Pence will not win re-election and a huge increase in the probability of Biden being elected would tank the market.
Jay, has it occured to you that the market has been soaring, literally since the day Trump was elected ~ until the Wuhan virus hit? Why on earth do you think that the market would go UP, if he resigned?
That was a rhetorical question, of course. I know why you think what you do, but not only is there zero evidence for it, it’s counterintuitive.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/12/how_to_get_the_stock_market_back.html
The bull market was soaring during Obama’s admin too. The vast majority of the bull market’s gains occurred under Obama, who presided over a stock market that more than tripled during his eight years in office.
Hasn’t it occurred to you that either both were highly talented economy maestros, or as is really the case – the WORLD’S economy determines stock market levels, not US policy alone.
But one honor lifts Trump above all previous presidents – he’s proved to be the most divisive, repulsive, uncouth, untrustworthy Oval Office inhabitant since the invention of Radio.
Hahaha! This was a classic TDS comment.
Barack Obama, a “highly talented economic maestro ?”
That Kool Aid you’re drinking must taste great.
Again you’re dancing to the wrong tune.
My point (didn’t it register?) neither one of them had much if anything to do with that 8 year rising bull market..
But if you’re curtseying to King Donnie for the (up to now) improving economy, you should be kissing Obama’s footsies. During his administration most all of the positive economic percentage gains were higher than the past 4 years of DoDo Donnie. That’s FACT, no faux GOP fancy.
Look at the charts. Both administrations saw rising numbers; Obama’s numbers rise steeply for longer…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/9-charts-comparing-trump-economy-to-obama-bush-administrations-2019-9-1028833119#the-stock-market-hit-its-bottom-early-in-obama-s-first-term-and-has-been-mostly-increasing-ever-since-although-trump-s-first-term-has-seen-a-lot-of-volatility-amid-uncertainty-around-trump-s-trade-disputes-with-other-countries-and-concern-that-the-economy-may-be-slowing-6
“My point (didn’t it register?) neither one of them had much if anything to do with that 8 year rising bull market..”
And your point would be false.
adjusting for time lag and volatility the stock market is the economy – or a close proxy of it.
The growth under Obama was WEAK, The Growth under Trump was 50% stronger.
That is evident in growth figures, That is evident in the stock market.
Any look at a 15 year DJIA average will show a pronounced difference between the Obama “bull” – which should really be called a “steer” as it is not much of a Bull, and the Trump Bull, which though weak compared to Clinton and Reagan was strong compared to Obama and Bush.
Further Obama had a major advantage. He started his presidence very near the bottom of a recession. Have the market increases under Obama were on autopilot.
Even with the current Covid19 driven panic drop, Trump’s first 3+ years are stronger than Obama’s.
Your chart is of S&P not DJIA.
Further your Chart does NOT show what you claim it does.
YOUR chart shows the S&P trends under Trump as the same or better than those under Obama – including the recent drop.
I have no problem with S&P, But it is a much much smaller portion of the economy than DJIA.
And you can go to Trading economics and get the DJIA for the Trump and Obama administrations. and you will see an obviously steeper slope during Obama.
Further Obama benefited from a recovery that was automatic – if he did not screw it up.
Obama’s numbers rise longer – because he was president longer.
Trump’s can not possibly rise longer – he has not been president long enough.
But even after the Covid19 market Adjustment Trump’s 4 years match or exceed any 4 years of Obama. With one difference – we know the Covid19 drop will mostly recover soon enough.
Are you really so bad at analyzing a chart that you can not grasp the meaning of YOUR OWN chart ?
In Sept 07 the DJIA peaked at just over 14000
It bottomed in Feb 09 – just after Obama was inaugurated at just under 7000.
In a normal Recession the recovery is as fast as the drop.
Under Obama the market did not recover to 14000 until March 13 – that is more than 4 years later. That is the weakest recovery since the Great depression – the last time the Government tried to manage the economy to recover.
Just before Trump was elected the DJIA was at just under 18000.
In less than 4 years under Trump the market rose 10000 – that is almost as much as the entire Obama presidency. Today the DJIA is at 22000 that is 4000 above when Trump was elected,
Current stock losses are “panic” The long term impact on the Stock market depends on the long term impact on the economy.
Right now that is unknown.
Arguably Covid19 should be treated much like a bad Flu year.
Obama had H1N1 – There was no effort to contain that, the US had Millions of cases and almost 20,000 deaths – in addition to those from the normal flue and colds.
We are being told by the left and the media that Biden could handle this better.
On what evidence ?
I do not want to beat Obama up for H1N1. I think he dealt with it Fine,
But Trump is doing much better with Covid19.
But Trump doing better is more because it is possible to do better today.
Covid19 spreads slower than H1N1 and we are at a point where we MIGHT actually be able to contain it. That would be the first time ever that we have succeeded in containing an Aerosol virus when there were more than a handlful of cases.
If we fail this time – it is likely we will succeed next time.
Every single problem Trump is being criticised over was handled worse with H1N1.
Not because Obama was incompetent, but because this is quite difficult.
The behavior of the market is not magical.
We have strong bull markets because the market anticipates strong growth.
If that does not happen the market adjusts.
The rate of growth and the rate of market increase under Obama were LESS than under Trump.
“Hasn’t it occurred to you that either both were highly talented economy maestros, or as is really the case – the WORLD’S economy determines stock market levels, not US policy alone.”
Correcting.
The DJIA is a leading indicator for the US Economy. The Stock market does not determing the economy. But the ANTICIPATED US Economy determines the stock market.
US Policy AND the world economy are FACTORS that impact the US Economy and therefore the stock market.
Bad US Policy weakens growth (as under Obama).
Global economic problems weaken US Growth.
In the short run Covid19 has and will have a strong negative impact on the US and world economy. No President can fix that.
The long term impacts are less predictable.
The actual impact of Covid19 run wild is likely to be equivalent to a bad flu year,
But we have given Covid19 space in our heads that we did not do with H1N1 or similar problems.
Further Covid19 is likely to have mostly run its course significantly before the election.
We do not know whether a recovery will begin in a week – if the US manages containment, which still seems likely, Or in 6 months. But it is near certain that however this plays out recovery will occur well before the election.
Jujst a sTrump is getting blame that is not really his right now, He will get undeserved credit for recovery.
I would further note that the Media and left Hype over Covid19 has a reasonable chance of backfiring.
Should we actually acheive containment – Trump is going to add defeating Covid19 to his list of accomplishments. Even if the the only thing he can Crow about is dealing with it more effectively than Europe, it still makes him look good.
You are trying to tell me that Trump has handled this incompetently.
Compared to China ? Iran ? Italy ? South Korea ? Spain ? Germany ? France ?
In fact there is not a country in Europe that has less Covid19 per capita than the US
If Trump has failed – what of other World leaders ?
If you say that Biden would have done better – Better than Merkel ? Macron ? ….
Obama/Biden certainly did not handle H1N1 better than the rest of the world – The US was the epicenter of the outbreak, the rest of the world was issuing Travel Bans to the US.
I’m gonna apologize for my last comment to you, Jay. I should not have said it. I criticize you for saying those things to me, and 2 wrongs don’t a right make.
I’m genuinely sorry. However, you can continue to call me a fool and a floozy, as long as you type it with a smile. 😇
I can not see a post of yours that I find especially offense.
Can you assuage my curiosity and be more specific about what you are apologizing for ?
The suggestion that Jay is drinking the koolaide ?
It would be nice if we all were always entirely civil.
but we are discussing things that we are passionate about.
There is a catagorical difference between
“your a floozy” – which is extremely offensive – possibly more than “your a pig”.
And your drinking the kool aide
Which is nothing more than a flowery version of you are uncritically accepting biased sources.
Yes, it was that comment. And, no I don’t think it was so bad, certainly not even close to the disrespectful and nonsensical crap he dishes out on a regular basis. I assume that he would never speak to anyone like that in person, but who knows?
In any case, I don’t want to play that game ~ it would be easy enough, but it’s not me. My comment was empty of any real content, it was just a comeback, and it was personal. I generally try to avoid that.
I have spent much of my life beleiving that you do not get into the mud with others.
I have unfortunately learned that does not work.
Just about every major republican since atleast ford has been called a nanzi and many other vile things.
I do not know if Dole or McCain of Romney would have been decent presidents – i suspect they would not have.
But they were not the vile things they were not Grad Dragon’s of the KKK – that would have been respected Democratic Senator Robert Byrd.
There is lots of personal attacks in politics.
I think at this point most of us can agree that the Clinton’s earned most of the personal attacks on them they do not have good character.
I do not have a problem with jay’s personal attacks on Trump – when they are truthful.
If someone calls Bill Clinton a money launderer or a russian asset – I would like evidence.
But there is a prima fascia case he is a peodophile and a rapist.
Call Trump mysoginist – seems true enough. But he is certainly not the liar that Obama was or the Clinton’s. Nor was he a russian asset.
I am increasingly tolerant of personal attack that are truthful.
Dole, McCain and Romney lost to lessor men. A significant factor in that was they did not fight back against those who lied about them.
I am not going to toss blanket insults at Jay – in the way that he does everyone else.
Mostly I am going to focus on attacking – even insulting his arguments, rather than him personally.
But there is a point at which false moral accusations against others must be called out – in the harshest terms.
I may hold myself to a higher standard than Jay.
But there is something wrong with just shrugging it off when false slurs like pig, floosy, liar, racist, mysoginist, hateful, hating hater sprayed like water.
But for my eyesight I would have been gone to the naval academy.
That probably would have been a poor fit. But one thing that struck me that fits my life
is the honor code “I will not lie, cheat, steal, or tolerate those who do.”
Media hypocracy is so delicious
Biden engaged in rampant voter supression – and he is a russian agent!
Atta boy j-say: in posting that @AOC video I’m sure you intended (but forgot) to say (as you have indicated in the past) that’s she’s a moron whose views are ridiculous. So I’m waiting for your ‘she’s full of crap’ retort. Go for it!
AOC may be a Moron – but NY Democrats elected her.
And she is an influential leader in her party.
Further she speaks for a very important minority within the democratic party.
Regardless, you post stupid things from Morons all the time.
What AOC is saying is stupid. But it is no less stupid when democrats like Stacy Abrams who may be Biden’s VP say it about republicans.
Yea, Biden is fine – when you can not get “The Rising” to buy you bull.
When the same people who are telling us that Biden is fine were asking about Biden’s competence over the past 9 months.
Interesting, this is nuts! And this comes out of the anti-gun state where they dont want people to have guns.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/companies/store-owners-see-surge-in-gun-sales-in-asian-communities-possibly-linked-to-coronavirus-fears/ar-BB114RwZ
“ Many customers at Lin’s store are Asian. And Lin said some of them are buying guns out of fear of being racially targeted because of the origin of the coronavirus.”
Dave should explain to them those worries are based on unfounded liberal media political correctness against calling it the Chinese Virus. Oh, wait- some GOPers think worse:
“ Hawkish Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., issued a menacing statement on Thursday vowing that the United States “will hold accountable those who inflicted” the coronavirus on the world, seeming to suggest that the Chinese government was behind the pandemic.
“The Wuhan coronavirus is a grave challenge to our great nation,” said Cotton, who announced he is temporarily closing his Washington office as a precautionary measure. “We are a great people. We rise to every challenge, we vanquish every foe, and we come through adversity even better than before.”
How is what you are trying to do with Trump different from what is being done regarding China ?
I doubt anyone seriously beleives claims that the US govenrment created this or that China did this deliberately.
But everyone is accusing everyone else of botching dealing with it.
How are these accusations in any way different ?
If Trump is wrong in blaming the chinese government for not taking this seriously quickly enough – how is it that the media, the left and democrats are right making the same accusations of Trump ?
Absolutely we should all avoid stupid presumptions that people who look asian are infected.
But it is reasonable for us to question both our own government and those of other countries.
I think it is pretty inarguable at the moment that China botched this at the start.
That they tried to hide it rather than stop it when there were only a few cases, and it could have been stopped relatively easily. Very early it was identified as a SARS like Corona Virus.
That should have been all that was required to start looking for the source and quaranteening those exposed. We know that SARS is a huge problem, btu we shutdown SARS very very early when it was easy. China had the oportunity and failed.
There are lots of other mistakes the chinese made, but this was the most critical.
The US response is going to be harder to address.
You can argue that the US response was too slow – and it might have been,
But it was much faster than the rest of the world – and that is probably the single most important reason why US cases are a small fraction of European cases.
The US is about 2 weeks ahead of Europe – meaning due to the much lower numbers of cases here, we have about two more weeks to build resources before we are confronting the same levels as Europe. That also means it is likely to be many times easier for the US to contain this.
Possibly the most difficult problem the US faces is that we will have to shutdown global airtravel until the rest of the world has this under control, and that could be a very long time.
It is near certain right now that Trump should have shutdown Travel from Europe sooner.
It is arguable that he should have shutdown Travel from China sooner – but he did react BEFORE everyone else.
Jay, from over a month ago. You can think what you want, but stories like this just stoke the hate during a period of panic.
https://nypost.com/2020/02/03/china-has-yet-to-allow-cdc-in-country-to-help-with-coronavirus/
I do not think we should stoke hatred – but some of that is natural.
The chinese as a people did not screw up. But there government did.
I do have some problems with this “taking numbers” rhetoric.
It is absolutely clear at this point that China tried to hide this rather than to kill this at the most critical time when it was possible to easily contain it.
The Chinese government bears responsibility for that.
But what are you going to do ? Demand reparations ?
Further though the chinese were the first to screw up. They were not the last.
Look at the JHU site.
Every other country infected – including the US had the ability to react quickly and stop this from getting into their country.
Some did better, some did worse, none did well.
At the same time – this has never been tried before.
Yes, we did something similar to ebola – which is a MUCH slower spreading disease that is NOT spread aerosol.
Right now we are doing the equivalent of trying to stop the Flu – without vaccines.
We can not succeed in stopping the flu with vaccines.
Just heard Brazilian president tested positive for virus. He had just met with Trump. Wonder how many are hoping Trump gets it? I would think most with TDS and many hoping he leaves this earth from it.
If the virus struck him down, wouldn’t ultra religious Trumpsters see that as an act of God, and renounce their previous adulation?
“If the virus struck him down, wouldn’t ultra religious Trumpsters see that as an act of God, and renounce their previous adulation?”
Again muddy words. What is “Ultra Religious” ?
I consider myself “ultra religious” – I have a very strong belief in God.
But I am not associated with any organized religion, and I am not sure I would even call myself christian.
Am I an “ultra religious trumpster” ?
Romney is Mormon – there are some pretty extreme mormons out there – is that who you mean ?
Louis Farakhan and Al Sharpton are “ultra religious”
As to Christian Fundimentalists – I would suggest reading the “book of Job”,
That will answer whether a Covid19 infection would cause them to renounce Trump.
What does it take to bring you back from Bat shit crazy TDS ?
For a while your Covid19 posts were actually rational.
I have no idea how Trumpsters would respond since I am not one and dont read minds. I support 99% of his policies, despise the man. Policies create the direction the country moves, not the man.
Teflon Don tests negative.
I guess the ultra religious Trumpsters will see that as a sign that he is the chosen one….
Obviously their prayers protected him…
No, Your hopes just did not pan out.
At a time like this with many people in a panic situation, two things need to be avoided.
Making jokes about a virus that can kill elderly, health challenged individuals at a greater rate than the flu.
Making jokes or sarcastic remarks concerning religious beliefs and the powers of god in the minds of believers.
Ron: “ I support 99% of his policies, despise the man. ”
Does that support include his Tariffs, and the resultant payoffs to big business farmers? Separating young children from their parents at the border? Diverting military budget funds to build the wall? His tax cut for billionaires, adding to his growing national deficit? You’re in favor of him stacking the courts with conservatives, not with moderate judges?
And did you like his earlier policy of downplaying the danger of the virus, telling people not to stay home?
“Does that support include ..”
Is there some requirement that one must support every policy of every presidential candidate ?
“Does that support include his Tariffs”
No, however Trump has actually been pretty careful about Tarriffs using them as an effective weapon in trade negotiations, he has been wise enough to avoid doing anything that has broad negative economic impact.
“and the resultant payoffs to big business farmers?”
No. I do not support farm subsides of any kind at all.
“Separating young children from their parents at the border?”
I support following the law, which Trump has done, if the law is bad, as this is change it.
Regardless the problem is now fundimentally solved as illegal immigrants are mostly being detained in Mexico.
“Diverting military budget funds to build the wall?”
Yes. If congress does not want that – they should fund the wall as they promised since 1986.
” His tax cut for billionaires,”
Absolutely, as well as millionaires and thousandaires.
I support reducing all taxes to the lowest point possible.
“adding to his growing national deficit?”
Revenue has increased. The deficit problem is spending.
“You’re in favor of him stacking the courts with conservatives, not with moderate judges?”
I am absolutely in favor of Trump placing strong FEDERALISTS on the courts.
People who will follow the law and the constitution as it is written not making it up.
The courts are not the place for ideology – not conservative, not progressive, not moderate.
Follow the law and the constitution NARROWLY, if we do not like the result – congress can change the law or we can ammend the constitution.
BTW Trump’s judicial appoinments are inarguably the most qualified set of appointments EVER. Despite the occasional squables over one appointment or another.
Trump has nearly double the appointees who clerked fro federal judges, nearly double the number of appointees who clerked for the supreme court.
There is a leftist legal critic who pointed out that Democrats are in serious trouble because these guys are increadibly well qualified and they are intellectual powerhouses and they are going to be an impediment to leftist agenda’s for decades.
So Amen to Trump’s judges.
They are likely the single most important thing Trump has done.
“And did you like his earlier policy of downplaying the danger of the virus”
Again you constantly confuse words and actions.
Trump’s ACTIONS – shutting down air travel from china faster than any president – against the recomendations of WHO and the CDC. Shutting down Air Travel from the EU – again against recomendations, Declaring an emergency – faster than Obama did with Swine Flu.
Agressively engaging in identifying and isolating those who were exposed.
“telling people not to stay home?”
Source ? You still do not seem to grasp that because of your long history of misrepresentations, your claims are not trustworthy.
Guess you dont read my comments or you would not be asking.
1. Tariffs..Yes FAIR TRADE NOT UNFAIR FREE TRADE!
2. Payments to offset farmers losses. Yes
3. Children separated. Yes, no child should be in jail with other adults. Yes the federal government screwed up some separation but thats the lifer federal governments employees f’ing up. And most important, if former government actions had followed Bill Clintons proposed policies, that mess would never have occurred.
4. Border wall, Yes, and I believe if you do your own research you will find this comes from the military construction fund and the military counter drug operation budget. Further research will find many articles showing the CDO is and has been ineffective and mostly wasted money and not many critically needed base construction projects impacted.
5. Tax cuts, I cant debate this since I only have information from my family and hardly no moderate sites with non political agendas. What I do know is there are significant differences in how people view these cuts depending on where you live. If your from CA, NJ, NY or IL, most all have very negative views of the legislation because SALT elimination had significant impacts. If your from a state like NC, we saw good results because our federal taxes no longer support waste in high tax states. My daughter and son said tgeir taxes decreased a good amount.
However, I am a flat tax supporter. You make X, your tax bill is Y. Not exemptions, no deductions and few removed from tax roles. Corporate and personal the same. No corporate loopholes. All income taxed at a specific rate, one rate.
6. Court appointments. Yes turn about is fair trade! Reid changed the rules so Obama could pack them with far left liberals because he could not get 60 votes for the ones Obama nominated. So now democrats have to live with Reids actions.
However, i believe the 60 vote level was appropriate and helped the courts from becoming a political arm of government. That all changed with Reids brain fart.
But the federal government is led by brain farts like Reids and the American voters giving us Clinton/Trump as really bad choices.
7. No, I do not support his handling of this issue, but I place much more blame on the lifers in government than him. I believe the truth lies between Trump thinking this was not a big issue and the press spreading fear and panic. And I still believe that.
And before you say anything. I did not vote for Trump nor Clinton. I will not vote for Trump nor Biden. I will not vote for the lessor of incompetents. I will vote for an issue if those are the choices. One more vote for libertarian party that could get them over the debate threshold for future elections.
“No, Your hopes just did not pan out.”
I certainly didn’t want him to test positive, because that would mean he spread the virus to many many others in high office and numerous secret service agents and White House staff, etc.
I do still hope a small baseball sized meteor will directly fall through his comb-over. Or, devout religious believer in great god Zeus that I am, hope a lightening bolt will be sent to zap in on the same target.
How many 70 year old Secret Service Agents, Whitehouse Staff and National security advisors do you think there are ?
That Hopey stuff did not work out so well for Obama either.
And before anyone comes back about my not joking about or making sarcastic religious comments about the current situation, my original comment had nothing to do with issues like crude jokes now on the internet nor prayers for Trump dying. But in this day and age, I have also seen ” hope he gets it and dies” in comments in other places.
If people want to make crude jokes on the internet about other people dying.
I am fine with that.
It tells us all who the vile people are.
Yup, those on the left are rational law abiding people.
All out problems with political violence they stem from the Right ?
https://lawandcrime.com/crazy/someone-created-a-federal-pac-to-pay-the-person-who-infects-trump-with-coronavirus/
She was for it before she was against it!
https://pelosi.house.gov/news/press-releases/pelosi-house-democrats-call-for-payroll-tax-cut-conference-committee-to-get-to
So?
I am not following what House democrats are up to closely.
But Trump outlined what he wanted in his nationwide speech.
Frankly I think that list needs divided in two.
SOME of what is on that list needs done IMMEDIATELY.
Some such as the tax and stimulus can be debated and done later.
What appears to be happening is that Democrats are AGAIN trying to use blackmail on MUST PASS legislation to add all kinds of unrelated political items.
That is NOT going to go over well.
I would note Gallup has congressional republicans polling ABOVE congressional democrats.
Republicans went home on Thursday; the Dems stayed and worked on the legislation. Pelosi was constantly on the phone in touch with Republicans, hammering out consensus; Mitch who had dismissed the Senate for the weekend was ducking out somewhere, out of sight.
Again FALSE.
Pelosi was pushing a bill with all kinds of things that had nothing to do with what is required now.
I am not a big fan of Republicans on this either. Frankly I think that all or most of the bill is worthless feel good nonsense.
Employers are already addressing the employment related issues.
There is no one size fits all answer to sick leave.
There is no one size fits all answer to any of this
I am a landlord, a Commercial building inspector, and an embeded software developer.
I have already worked out different answers for each of these.
I will be looking to avoid contact with tenants.
I am revising my process for doing PCA’s – I will likely require any apartments I inspect to be unoccupied before I go through them.
I already do software development from my own offices, But I am technically a W2 employee for one client and even though /i have never been to their offices in Idaho – they already emailed me that I am allowed to continue working from home.
My daughter works at Target and lives at home. If this gets bad enough she is quitting
because my wife and I are in a moderate risk catagory, and we can not afford her spreading this to us.
The point is NOT exactly what I am doing, but that one size does not fit all.
Some businesses need to close. Others need to curtail operations.
Some actually need to hire and increase production.
Some idiot on Twitter is asking if it is moral to order food delivered,
Of course it is. the overall risk to EVERYONE is lower.
We will see more home deliveries.
Amazon and mail order will boom.
Fast Food pickup will boom.
But dine in resturaunts will scale back.
Many retail stores will go to longer hours, because people will actively be looking to shop at times when the stores are not crowded.
The shelves will be restocked in our stores very quickly.
Businesses like hospitality, entertainment, public transportation, bus, airlines will be hard hit.
but uber will likely benefit.
We are not going to stop living. We are not going to stop buying, we are not going to stop traveling, but we will do so differnetly.
The accomidations will be different in cities, suburbs and rural areas.
Some aspects of this may be permanent.
This is a big boost for many types of gig work.
It is also a boost for telecommuting – which has always had large advantages for both employees and employers. But middle managers do not like it so it has not thrived as much as it should. this might tip that.
This will be a huge boost for cyber schools.
Mom or Dad can work from home and the kids can be schooled at home.
Interestingly AGAIN this virus targets Blue and favors Red – both states and policies.
Lots of people may find they like working from home and having their kids cyber chartered.
But none of this required congress.
What are your sources – because that is not what is being reported.
Pelosi tried to rush a bill with all kinds of non-emergency related cruft in.
Trying this “you have to pass the bill so that we can read it” crap again.
Republicans held firm, and Pelosi mostly gave in and the bill is mostly what Trump asked for.
At the same time I think the whole thing is a crock.
I am hard pressed to think of anything in this law that was necescary.
Why does Dumb Donnie continue to tell us things that aren’t true?
Does he mean well, but has a bolloxed brain? Or can’t he help exaggerate to make himself look better?
“Google confirms that it is not building a nationwide coronavirus screening website, contrary to what Trump announced. Another Alphabet company, Verily, has an early project that only works in the Bay Area”. @backlon
This is from Google’s own website:
“People continue to come to Google to search for vaccine information, travel advisories and prevention tips (for example, since the first week of February, search interest in coronavirus increased by +260% globally). Our SOS Alert in Search connects people with the latest news plus safety tips and links to more authoritative information from the World Health Organization (WHO).”
https://blog.google/inside-google/company-announcements/coronavirus-covid19-response/
It’s got links to lots of valuable information, and links to at least one page that provides information on testing and what symptoms might prompt people to ask for a test.
I don’t know if Google is being churlish about this, or just trying to clarify something that the President said. It’s possible that they are embarrassed to be recognized for their efforts, because they don’t like Trump, which is just stupid.
At least Trump gives credit where it is due. If the Google execs want to be jackasses, that’s their choice.
Once again Jay converts his personal perception of the meaning of something into proof someone he does not like lied.
“I did not have sex with that woman” is a lie. There is no confusion.
“If you like your doctor you can keep them” is a lie.
Most of what Jay claims are lies require deliberate misinterpretations
Further Jay calls things lies, where there was no promise and no reliance and harm.
This one even the Washington Post could not call a lie. It appears he got bad info from CDC
They reported “The president said that 1,700 engineers were working on the triage website and that it would be done “very quickly.” Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said they wanted to bring it “across the continent.” Vice President Pence said they would have more information about when the website would be available starting Sunday evening.””
“Deborah Birx is an American physician and diplomat who currently serves as Ambassador-at-Large and as United States Global AIDS Coordinator. She was nominated by President Barack Obama and confirmed by the Senate. She was sworn in April 4, 2014. In this role she is responsible for PEPFAR’s US$6. 6 billion program in 65 countries” …She was brought.in to serve on the COVID task force.
Why do you care Jay ?
First I do not trust you. So how about a link to where Trump actually said whatever you claim ?
I can nor recall a time EVER when what you have claimed Trump said and what he actually said – in context was the same.
But the next issue is that screening is a feel good measure – not an effective measure.
There are 2000 suspected cases in the US at the moment.
uncontrolled that doubles every 4 days.
There are 330M, it will take 36 days (uncontrolled) to reach 1m people.
BUT we have effectively reduced that spread rate to 1.6. That means it will take 52 days – if nothing changes to reach 1m. You can calculate this from the daily cases on the CDC web site.
That is assuming we can not reduce the spread rate further.
If the spread rate goes below 1 – this dies.
Testing will do nothing to slow this.
If you are sick – are you going to go out ?
If you were exposed are you going to stay home ?
The test can not tell you if you were exposed.
The lag between exposure and testing positive is between 4 and 10 days,
Further there are lots of false positives and false negatives.
Testing is a feel good measure not an effective tool in containing this.
Focus on what matters.
“ Trump Oversold a Google Site to Fight Coronavirus
After Jared Kushner liked the idea, President Trump inflated the concept. The disconnect is the latest example of the president exaggerating or making wholly inaccurate statements about his administration’s response….”
You are behind the news.
This has already been debunked.
Once again NYT = Fake News.
Google is or was working on a nationwide site.
Regardless, lets assume the NYT is accurate.
What is your claim here ? That Trump deliberately told americans something that he KNEW was not true, and that they were guaranteed to find out quickly ?
One of the problems with the vast majority of YOU and the LEFT’s and the Medias and Democrats attacks on Trump is that they require that Trump and many others are incredibly stupid and worse tell lies that they KNOW will be found out.
Do you actually think Trump is that stupid ? What about Kushner ?
Kushner is so emblematic of what is wrong with you and the left.
Kushner is almost a Billionaire himself.
He was the architect of Trump’s 2016 Media campaign – the assumption that Kushner is ill informed about the internet is laughable on its face.
Kushner is Trump’s son in law, he is an orthodox jew, and Trump’s daughter Ivanka converted to Judiasm over a decade ago with Trump’s full support.
The Kusner family are Holocaust survivors, yet you and those like you have no problem – again laughably claiming that Trump is an anti-semite.
And you make nonsensical claims like this while the left veers rapidly into anti-semitism.
“ Google is or was working on a nationwide site.”
Debunked? As usual you’re as inaccurate and full of crap as Trump.
Google told you Trump’s statement was inaccurate and misleading when he made it.
Debunk that – dare you.
AfterTrump made the inaccurate and misleading statement, Google STARTED to accelerate in-house plans to get their OWN site up, available to public access.
As usual, Trump bolloxed the story, inaccurately claiming another company’s site (only geared for Francisco access) was a Google site available to EVERYONE.
“Debunked? As usual you’re as inaccurate and full of crap as Trump.
Google told you Trump’s statement was inaccurate and misleading when he made it.
Debunk that – dare you.”
False – someone dealing with a SPECIFIC Google Covid project – I beleive for SF said that Trump was incorrect, that their project was specific to SF.
But that was NOT the only google Covid Project.
“AfterTrump made the inaccurate and misleading statement, Google STARTED to accelerate in-house plans to get their OWN site up, available to public access.”
Mostly inaccurate. This was a DIFFERENT project, they did accelerate the project after Trump announced it, but its existance predates Trump’s announcement.
“As usual, Trump bolloxed the story, inaccurately claiming another company’s site (only geared for Francisco access) was a Google site available to EVERYONE.”
No That was another Google project, not another company.
Again you suffer from dreadful logic skills.
There are many sites dealing with Covid – and more all the time.
The FACT that one of those is NOT the site Trump referenced in his speach has no logical value.
If I say the Sun has a ‘red planet”, the fact that the earth is blue disprove my statement ?
Some help.
A statement is not a lie – if it is true.
The fact that some particular google site was not the one Trump refered to, and that you and the media and those at Google SF are so desparate to insult trump that YOU do not bother to check the facts, does not make a true statement into a lie.
A statement is not a lie – if it is inaccurate.
It would be nice if all of us spoke with perfect accuracy all the time. But we don’t.
This is also a game that can nearly always be played, because almost everything ever said is not perfectly accurate.
A statement is not a lie – just because it is wrong.
Lie: a false statement made with deliberate intent to deceive;
At the very least if you claim something is a lie, you must prove that not only is it incorrect, but you must provide evidence it was deliberately incorrect.
This is all important, because moral accussations – like accusations of lying are very significant.
If you accuse someone else of lying – you are betting your integrity against theirs.
And the burden of proof is on you.
This is the NY Times. Read the comments from the lifer CDC woman doctor. She was the one reporting this. Or did you just ignore what I shared from your previous TDS comment.
Damn Jay, I agree that he lies, but when you just regurgitate factual manipulation from the left, your crediability is impacted significantly also.
Ron – what part of this from the NYT link is untrue?
“ But on Friday, President Trump inflated the concept far beyond reality. At a news conference in the Rose Garden, he said that the company was helping to develop a website that would sharply expand testing for the virus, falsely claiming that “Google has 1,700 engineers working on this right now” and adding that “they’ve made tremendous progress.”
None of that was accurate.
I didn’t say Trump was lying; but he was stating a falsehood. And how has Dumbo Donnie responded? With an apology for the mistake? With a clarification, to keep the record straight? With a promise he’ll try to get better info from whoever is feeding him virus info?
No. The petulant putz doubled down as usual, blaming the media for reporting Google’s response.
“Ron – what part of this from the NYT link is untrue?”
Serious ? Any straight news article that says “inflated the concept far beyond reality” is oppinion not news, and belongs on the op-ed page.
“None of that was accurate.”
Because you say so ? Because someone in SF on a different project says so ?
“I didn’t say Trump was lying; but he was stating a falsehood. ”
Definition of falsehood
LIE, the practice of lying : MENDACITY
False and falsehood are not the same.
“And how has Dumbo Donnie responded? With an apology for the mistake? With a clarification, to keep the record straight? With a promise he’ll try to get better info from whoever is feeding him virus info?”
Why does he need to respond at all.
“No. The petulant putz doubled down as usual, blaming the media for reporting Google’s response.”
I do not want oppinion pretending to be straight news from NYT.
Give me a named source at Google who actually speaks for the entire company – not some office in SF.
Even if you merely want to claim the remark is FALSE, you are required to do atleast that.
Trump is NOT entitled to credulous belief because he said something.
But the NYT is no longer entitled to beleif when they are printing unsourced or poorly sourced opinions as straight news.
And you continue to offer them and others as bad or worse, or sometimes just your own unsourced assertions.
You have been caught in so many mistakes you are not entitled to the benefit of the doubt.
If you want to be beleived again, you need to provide GOOD verifiable sources for a LONG LONG TIME.
Jay Your track record is so bad that I just presume when you post something it is false.
And I am close to the same place with much of the news.
You said 65% of people beleive Trump is lying.
You did not provide a source and I can not find one.
But I did find that trust in the media is in the tank.
https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xODYwMzA1OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwNzY1NDM4NX0.GAo1r7SP-IeXdZkIO_aYA__VGsinJwdFsWRj3GBjI4A/img.jpg?width=980
“No. The petulant putz doubled down as usual, blaming the media for reporting Google’s response.”
Again – source. In this instance, preferably a video of transcript of trump’s exact words.
You do not seem to understand the price you and the left and the democrats and the media pay for pissing all over your integrity.
You do not need to listen to me. But there is plenty of data that large numbers of people are tuning out the media – because they do not trust them.
Do you not remember the story of the “boy who cried wolf” ?
Jay i am not going to debate you when you do not spend the time to read what I comment on other than to argue with me about Trump
Page back through the previous comments and you will find where I copied comments by the Obama appointee that was retained by Trump that has something to do with infectious diseases. She was the one who presented this information and I believe she also had a board showing that site. She was the one who presented all the detailed info, Trump just fed off her.
Again, lifer govt employee fucks up!
Most of the people at FDA and CDC – infact most of the people anywhere in government have been there since Obama.
We are well past the days of Andrew Jackson when a new president replaced the enite federal government.
In many instances the very same people who handled Swine Flu (badly) are handling this.
I do not automatically beleive Trump when he says someone else said something – but atleast you have some possible pushback on your “Trump lied about Google” story.
Elsewhere there are stories listing exactly what Trump said and exactly what Google is doing.
Google IS partnering with the US Government regarding Covid19.
Further they appear to be doing every single thing Trump noted in his speach AND MORE.
But not all part of a single website or project.
So at best rather than a credible claim that Trump lied you have something more akin to “what Trump said is not precisely correct, as he said it”.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/16/trump_rips_fake_news_over_google_coronavirus_website_would_be_great_if_we_could_really_give_the_news_correctly.html
https://reason.com/2020/03/13/america-doesnt-have-enough-hospital-beds-to-fight-the-coronavirus-certificate-of-need-laws-are-one-reason-why/
Maybe 1% of America has heard of these laws and fewer understand their impact.
I have been against these from the beginning because they create and support monopolies. That is one of the major reasons a CT Scan will cost on average $3,000+. When there may be only one or two providers, they can price fix and charge whatever.
This just shows another side, but I am not sure hospitals would ever build a facility that was designed for a pandemic. They optimum occupancy is around 90%. That allows for cleaning, emergency admissions. Once at that level, our admitting department was on phone requesting doctors to speed process for evaluating patients for discharge.
No, you do not and should not design for a pandemic. Whether a hospital or healthcare system.
You do not allocate massive resources to deal with a black swan event.
But there is much wrong with our healthcare system from Top to bottom and we should look at that.
The house – democrats, and republicans despite squabbling just passed a bill that really will do very little if anything of consequence. The Fed just pumped 1.5T into the economy – while that is PROBABLY not the worst thing they could do, it is still a knee jerk reaction and the ludicrous beleif that government can manage the economy.
I do not have the answers to all the problems. Nor Does trump.
But beleive it or not – someone does.
There are hundreds of people claiming to have the answers – and with certainty some of those claims are crap, and some are good, and some are great.
How do we sort that out ?
Do you honestly beelive that govenrment can quickly work out the best choice ? or even a good one ?
Conversely free markets allow everyone with an idea to try their idea.
And we see the results and move on.
ONE example – we have 6 commerical vaccines ready for testing RIGHT NOW.
the FDA and Faucci are telling us 12-18 months before we can “safely” give those to humans.
The FDA “screwed up” on swine flu and released the vaccine with less testing than normal and 500 people were paralized – but forgotten is that the early release saved 10,000 lives and probably 1m cases of the flu.
We do not know right now how big and bad this will be.
I think the 70m infections number is crap. But in 12 months I could be eating crow.
But we do know that even if this only goes to 1m infections globally – alot of people are going to die.
So how safe does a vaccine have to be ?
We also know that a vaccine NOW could stop this dead in its tracks.
So how bad does the vaccine have to be for that to be a negative tradeoff ?
Why is it hard for FDA to see that when you have something that kills somewhere between 0.8% and 4% of those infected – and possibly as much as 25% of the elderly that the vaccine can be really bad and still be a net positive.
I keep hearing from everywhere including you sometimes, that this is Trump’s waterloo.
Maybe so, but why presume that ?
I have noted that I thought both Trump and CDC/FDA did pretty well.
You have noted they made alot fo mistakes.
BOTH can be true.
If the measure is perfection – they screwed the pooch.
If the measure is the rest of the world, we are doing pretty well.
But the critical measure is NOT going to be this moment.
It is going to be the end result.
If Trump does nothing, if this is not contained, if it runs its course, if the economy goes to hell, if millions die, if , if, if – Trump does not get relected.
One of the things I find interesting, is that the alternative is Biden.
And Biden was heavily involved in the Swine Flu debacle.
The rest of the world was banning travelers from the US.
Regardless, Trump is not going to be compared to Biden UNLESS he is successful at dealing with this.
It does not matter whether Trump did 10 times better than Biden/Obama if there are enough deaths and a tanked economy.
Conversely if Trump succeeds against Corona – Trump is re-elected.
Right now it is increasingly obvious this is close to a binary event.
It alone will come close to deciding who is president in 2020.
But one thing that those claiming Trump is done for seem to ignore – is that Trump is the actual president right now.
I do not think he has screwed up todate – though CDC/FDA has.
But even if he has screwed up big, This is like a football game.
The score at the end of the first quarter does not determing the outcome of the game.
There are 3 quarters left and Trump can fail many more times – so long as at the final buzzer he has a victory.
I beleive I offered some ideas already.
I am not claiming they are “THE” answer. In fact my entire approach would be to rapidly allow as much freedom as possible for others to try things.
I would just tell the BioHackers – Go To Town, and block CDC/FDA from interfering.
But i do not think Trump is likely to go that far.
But something more on the lines of DIRECTING the CDC to start preliminary evaluations of 20 different vaccines – from whatever sources are available.
Generate preliminary guestimates of the effectiveness and the risk of each of the different experimental vaccines. Then allow testing by up to 10,000 volunteers for EACH vaccine – and let the volunteers choose which vaccine they test on – until the slots are filled.
Then at 2 week intervals reasses the success and risk of each vaccine.
Drop the ones that are not working and the ones that have high side effects,
replace each one you drop with somebodies new offering,
Repeat and slowly expand the testing on those competing offerings until we reach a point where one or more has high enough efficacy and low enough risks to broadly release it.
I think the entire process could take 2 months at most.
Meanwhile people would be seeing visible efforts and results.
Look I would go total free market and just get CDC/FDA out of it.
But for the socialists among us – you can still give the CDC/FDA the power to rank choices, while not permitting them to block everything.
We can say – you WILL test the best 10 or 20 alternatives.
I am using vaccines as the example here – but the same approach can be tried in multiple areas.
https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tape-stymied-testing-and-made-the-coronavirus-epidemic-worse/
HUMMMM. You bombard me with pages of comment as to why I am wrong about criticism of the CDC in their incompetence, and now you post this?
Why is it good now, but not when I commented?
What changed?
A common problem in a crisis is that you do not know what you need to know until after it is too late.
You have to solve problems based on the information you have – some of which may be wrong.
You are correct – my viewpoint on testing is shifting.
The big issue is NOT test kits, it is labs.
Testing can be two tier.
I think the CDC/FDA should be left alone in chasing down the KNOWN transmission paths.
Basically following the known infected and quarantining those exposed.
But I think the states and the free markets should be left unimpeded in testing everyone else.
The key bit of information for me was HS student in WA who was sick but was NOT part of any know chain or transmission path who turned out to be positive.
That is rare – but it is going to happen periodically.
Left alone CDC/FDA will miss that
The lab quality and testing quality of tests OUTSIDE the CDC is not important.
False positives just call that person to the attention of CDC.
False negatives are bad, but they are less bad than no testing.
So long as this is happening in the free market outside of the CDC, there is no cost, not wasting of scarce resources.
Once again, I have no problem with certification from private entities like Joint Commission on Accreditation of Hospitals, C.L.I.A. and other professional org. Nor do I have a problem if the government decides there is a need for certification that private orgs dont do.
However, I find it unacceptible when labs jump through hoops to obtain C.L.I.A. certification which includes everything from safety to training every 5 yrs and then the feds take days to aporove those same labs to do something they are ready to do.
The feds were, are and will continue to be a problem all the way until a vaccine is found to be effective.
I honestly do not care if the Lab is certified or not.
What I want is that the CDC sets the standards for the labs that it uses for its testing related to containment and to searching for cases to isolate by following the path of known infected people.
While outside the federal govenrment people (and labs) can do as they please.
The next HUGE issue – which Trump needs to get a handle on personally is vaccine approval and testing.
The FDA will allow half the country to die rather than approve a vaccine that might give one person hiccups.
Trump has the power to expedite and or change the approval and testing process.
He needs to do something about that NOW.
One thing clear from the reason article is that there are LOTS of people prepared to try to solve this problem – with a little money, and money will flow – if the CDC/FDA do not get in the way.
DAVE, YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND A THING ABOUT WHAT C.L.I.A. CERTIFICATION MEANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Our lab would be reviewed every 3-4 years, just after JCAHO survey. They covered everything from equipment, facility, number of employees in each job classification, staffing by shift, their certificates, the training the hospital required on a yearly basis and every other thing you can think of. And if you did not have that, then the state would come in a survey so they could pay the hospital medicaid funds. Without it, you did not get reimbursed for Medicare or medicaid lab charges.
CDC does not have anywhere near those standards. All they are is a bunch of lifer government hacks sitting behind a f’in desk in Atlanta looking at a piece of paper asking for approval. You show me where every lab in this country they are approving has had a site visit and I will eat my socks.
Once a lab has the scientific resources to process test, if they are certified for other test there should not be a delay in processing these after they have trained staff, which would be a 3-4 hour, at most, educational program.
“DAVE, YOU DO NOT UNDERSTAND A THING ABOUT WHAT C.L.I.A. CERTIFICATION MEANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
That’s right.
I don’t care.
They are not part of government, they can do as they please however they please.
Or atleast they should be allowed to.
A private lab’s qualifications are the business of those that choose to use them.
If I chose to get tested – I would care about C.L.I.A certficiation.
Dave “A private lab’s qualifications are the business of those that choose to use them.
If I chose to get tested – I would care about C.L.I.A certficiation.”
I have a friend that knows black is black, but if I say that is a good looking black car, he will tell me its not black, its dark charcoal. The point being he will take a position opposite mine no matter the subject. He loves a good debate.
I now find his twin personality. YOU! We could continue this unending debate, but I wont. I just hope you find that lab to run your test that MaMa government has not approved.
Ron, this is not about a disagreement or black vs,. charcoal.
I have taken the same position regarding government staying out of the market uniformly forever.
Even before I concluded that Government had screwed up with testing, my position was STILL that dictating what individuals and private businesses do regarding labs and testing is NOT in the scope of government.
I am not gray here.
I can not recall every supporting any apriori regulation .
I have been clear about the boundaries for government action.
My position is not opposite yours.
My position on free markets has not changed in decades.
The only thing that has changed is my assessment of whether the CDC’s failure to test made things worse.
And the very evidence that changed my mind, supports the position that government should not be regulating private labs.
Thank you. Your previous comment did not come across to me in that way.
“Thank you. Your previous comment did not come across to me in that way.”
If so – that was my mistake.
The only commodity or service that should not be provided by the free market is FORCE.
I am a pretty extreme free market libertarian (though I do not mostly allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good) I am not an anarcho-capitalist.
Police, courts, are not services that should be provided by free markets.
Controlling boarders is FORCE, National defence is FORCE, public health overall is not, HOWEVER when we must talk about quarantines – that is FORCE and that is the role of government.
The monopoly that government has on the use of force – but only the JUSTIFIED use of force DOES NOT go beyond the scope where force is required.
Government can use force to control borders. It can quarantine the sick. It can not tell private labs or private people what they can and can not do.
I do not beleive that laws against drugs, prostitution, suicide are legitimate,
Why would I support regulation of private testing labs.
You keep wanting to fixate on the certifications and qualifications of those labs.
In the philosophical debate that is irrelevant. I do not care if a private lab tests for Covid19 by reading Tarrot cards. In the context of my personally chosing a lab to test me – I damn well care about its certifications and standards and …..
Dave I know you area free market individual, that everything will work out in the end when something happens to cause any difficulties and changes will correct the problem.
but I also understand and think that it is the responsibility of government to provide information when we are at risk whit something in our safety.
My friend who was the director of Pharmacy told me years ago we were headed for issues since so many or the drugs were beginning to be made in China. He said China is not our friend and when critical need drugs like antibiotics and heparin and many diabetic drugs are exclusive of china, then they have a force over us that can cause short to medium term problems if they wish to do that.
I dont think it needs to be that we do anything to ban the production of those drugs in china, but when the American Pharmaceutical Society is raising red flags, someone should listen. AGAIN, I look at the FDA, CDC and others as incompetent boobs that have no reason to be in those jobs. They also should have been beating the drums, warning congress and making moves that would support other drug companies in making drugs in different countries. It should not take peoples deaths and crisis to make congress move. the president and congress have ways to help make it advantagious for drug companies to produce products here. And not by force.
Hopefully all companies will find that supply chain should be distributed to many different countries. Damn, just this morning they showed a Chinese plane being unloaded with medical hasmat suits, face mask and other isolation medical needs for hospital employees working with Covid patients in Washington because they were running out and and asked for an emergency delivery. That is f’in damn lunacy! And if you can’t see that, your as loony as the industry leaders letting this happen.
I don’t want force, but I want some intelligent decisions made by leaders in critical need industries other than profit. I could care less if Joe Blow can’t get his new $1500 smart phone and can’t get the latest video game that goes on it.
I do care if my daughter who is a nurse can’t get proper safety equipment to do her job and not bring disease home to her or her family because we put all are eggs in the Chinese basket.
So if China tries to blackmail the world over anitbiotics or latex gloves – how long do you think that will last ?
You really seem to think that markets are one way rigid.
That companies can easily migrate to China, but that they can not come back.
In 1941 the US produce 3.000 tanks.
In 1942 it produced 28,000
In 1943 we produced 35,000
At the same time everything else went from 0 to 1000%
There were 6 US battleships and 2 carriers in the pacific at the start of WWII.
Every single battleship was put out of commission at Perl Harbor.
At the battle of Okinawa the US had 30 carriers though many were lighter escort carriers – these were more capable than the 2 carriers that the US started the war with.
And the British had an additional 10 carriers.
We are currently build rockets and space ships PRIVATELY, there is currently a private rocket launch just about every day in march.
Why do you beleive there is going to be a problem with Anitbiotics ?
Absolutely on some items the Chinese could “blackmail” the world ONCE for maybe 30-90 days.
And if they did almost all manufacturing would move from China in a year.
Why do you think that China would commit economic suicide ?
I have no doubt that in response tot he fact that the world is not perfect or perfectly predictable, at various times we will see shortages. Sometimes of critical items.
The world is not perfect and these things happen. And they happen when things are made in the US.
If you wish to try to persuade the Walton family or Jeff Bezos – be my guest.
If you are talking about decisions made by our leaders – meaning Trump or Pelosi, you are talking government and you are talking FORCE.
The us government buys almost nothing from China, and it sells almost nothing from China.
When our trade reps go to China to negotiate, they are not talking about what the Chinese government will buy, or what the US government will buy.
They are talking about what the Chinese government will FORCE its people to buy, or what the US government will FORCE people to buy (or not buy).
You can not escape the fact that you are talking about the use of force with rhetorical games.
And more force means less freedom.
TODAY no one is actually stopping you.
If you can not buy anitbiotics in the US and you think that is important – go find investors and start a US antibiotic plant. If there are consequential people who want the same thing you want – you will get rich. outside of government corrupt cronyism people only get rich by giving OTHERS what they want and need.
If people want antibiotics from someplace besides china – you can get rich provideing them.
In an actual free market – you are free to do that.
Rather than complain because someone else has not offered you US made antibiotics.
Complain because OUR government has made that difficult.
I linked tot he Reason article that has biohackers claiming to be able to deliver a covid19 vaccine for 25K in 4 weeks with low to no risk and a 50% chance of working.
I WANT THAT. I would help fund them NOW, but as they noted in the article – it is illegal today, they will go to jail if they do this.
WHY ?
Rather than rant about Chinese antibiotics whose much lower cost has made all of us better off, complain about a REAL harm – the inability of bio-entrepeneours to develop Vaccines in record time.
That matters, people will die.
I asked my doctor how he avoided all the assorted colds etc.
His answer ?
I don’t. The norm is that younger doctors get sick with things like the cold and flu ALOT.
And as they do so, they build immunity.
As even the Surgeon general says – masks etc. are to protect PATIENTS From DOCTORS.
Currently we have shifted from quarantining the sick to quarantining everyone.
Absent a large societal benefit – and it is highly unlikely we will see one that outweights the destruction this is causing. we should look at OTHER approaches.
Always quarantine the sick.
But we should also work towards protecting the vulnerable.
If you are terminally ill – I would do little to protect you from Covid19. Ket your families come and visit etc.
But if you are old and sick and likely to recover – I would isolate you completely – you get Covid19 your dead.
I would severely restrict visits at nursing homes.
I am 61, I also have asthma and reduced lung function due to a childhood issue.
I am otherwise in excellent health.
I am being extra careful – and I should be. This PROBABLY will not kill me.
But who wants to take a 1:100 chance of dying ?
My kids are 20’s there odds are 1:1000. They should not allow this to disrupt their lives.
If they want to go to the movies – they should. If they get sick – they get sick.
They just need to stay away from me.
Government is supposed to be limited – including the CDC.
The constraints on private parties are only that they do not use force.
If it is inside the capacity of private labs to test every man woman and child in the US
And everyone chooses to do so – then they are free to do so.
That’s another part of the Covid19 bill I opbject to.
No! the Government should not pay for testing.
One of the purposes of prices is to ration limited resources.
That is why antigouging laws are a BAD idea.
If someone wants to buy and sell toilet paper – LET THEM.
https://reason.com/2020/02/25/big-biotech-is-hustling-to-beat-coronavirus/
https://reason.com/2020/03/13/prizes-for-progress-against-coronavirus/
https://reason.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-we-got-this/
Ron,
After much reading on the issue, I am modifying my view on testing a bit.
First there is increasing evidence that there are several ways in which CDC has Forked this up – including testing. In fact despite his remarks minimizing this Trump has generally acted MORE aggressively than those in the Government Health Cabal have recomended.
I have noted already the quick development of vaccines. But Faucci and others are saying that it will STILL take 12-18 months for any of those to get approved.
This is blowback from the CDC/FDA’s perceived failure with the Swine Flu Vaccine.
That was slightly fast tracked and 500 people were paralized. But it is estimated that 1M cases of Swine flu and 10.000 deaths were prevented. I would call that a success.
But FDA/CDC consider that a failure and the Obama administration crafted regs that now make the testing take much longer.
That is going to be a major issue and Trump should step in FORCEFULLY
There are myriads of examples of the free market already working on this.
There are atleast half a dozen vaccines ready for trial RIGHT NOW,
But as things stand none of those will be approved in less than 12 months.
The separate reason article I linked reports that niohackers – these are genetic biologists working in their fields. but also experimenting in their garages – so we are not talking about people who do not know what they are doing, expect to have a Vaccine in 6 weeks – if they get 10-50K of funding – which they likely already have.
Due to the specific technology they are using the vaccine will have far lower risk than normal vaccines, but it has a much higher than normal probability of not working – it has less than a 50% chance of working. Apparently the approach is already KNOWN safe, if completely circumvents all the issues with traditional vaccines that raise the possibility of side effects.
Essentially they are saying the only testing necescary is testing for effectiveness.
But they are fully expecting the CDC/FDA to come down on them hard and shut them down.
They are planning on giving the vaccine away for free once it is developed, in the hope that will somewhat protect them from the FDA/CDC, but still fully expect to be shutdown.
In which case the vaccine will likely move to the “dark web”
With respect to your complaints regarding testing, a biologist in Seattle asked CDC to allow her to to test a Settle Teen for Covid19 in her State certified lab, and the CDC refused to allow this. She did so anyway and the student tested positive.
She is estimating that the CDC’s early refusal to allow non-CDC labs to test resulted in a failure to detect 50% of early cases at a time when it would have been much easier to stop this.
That is probably the big factor causing me to modify my position.
The objective is to stop the spread.
Testing is STILL NOT a critical part of that process when dealing with traceable exposures.
But it is likely that some portion of those who are exposed are going to be missed.
Anything that we can do to decrease the number of exposures that slip through the cracks is very important.
You have previously identified South Korea – which appears to have just about the most agressive testing program in place. And has tested the largest number of people.
South Korea also had for some time the largest number of cases outside of China.
But it appears that SK has either reached or is very close to containment.
And it appears that despite starting BEHIND because they did not start reacting to Covid19 until they already had 1000 cases, South Korea currently only has 8K and that number is not rising very fast compared to other countries.
Simply it appears that SK has done what China did – which is gained containment, and also like China they did so AFTER botching their initial response.
But different from China they appear to be using massive amounts of testing and self quarantining not the much more draconian efforts of China.
So to be clear – I completely support ANYTHING the free market wants to try to thwart this.
That is NOT a change in my position. The FDA/CDC should be told by Trump to get the fork out of the way of private efforts to make a difference.
It is pretty established that CDC/FDA screwed up testing.
Though the claim this is about testing kits is garbage. Their failure is because they have been actively thwarting state, local and private efforts to test or take other measures to stop this.
I am revising my position that did not matter.
Testing may not be the most important factor in containing this, but it is a more useful tool than I argued.
Dave, thanks.
One of the largest impacts that lack of testing has is the unknown. How many cases are there really. I know we will never know if all those cold/flu are really cold/flu, but better identification could have led to more identification earlier, thus maybe (not making) resulting in the total number of cases less.
Latest count officially is 3,000. I bet (mentally) that this is closer to 10,000, but we dont know.
I am still not in agreement with you.
If the free market can provide testing for everyone – I am for that whether it is effective or not.
The OBJECTIVE is to kill this sucker.
I changed my mind regarding testing specifically because it is clear that CDC is missing some exposed people in its investigations. I should have considered that from the start.
If you want to kill this you need to follow the spread and isolate everyone exposed.
You can afford to miss a few, but you can not afford to have your head in the sand about them. You can not miss one person AND let them spread 5 generations before picking them up.
The quality of testing and false positives and false negatives do not matter much.
A false negative will show up when that person gets sick or infects others.
That is not good, but again this dies if you reduce R0 below 1. You do not need to get it to 0.
A false positive just quaranties someone who did not need quarantined.
That is not a huge problem.
But picking up some of the cases missed by CDC – that is the big benefit.
“Official counts”
Do you think the counts in other countries are better ?
I suspect that few are better and most are worse.
Though there are a few location specific factors – Iran and licking relics as an example.
The big difference in numbers (per capita) accross the world is how quickly did a country shut down air travel.
Interestingly the same people who said Trump over reacted are now saying he should have acted sooner.
There is alot of discussion that this is a disaster that it will tank the election and tank the economy.
But there are some presumptions in those arguments that I think are false.
The “this is Trump’s waterloo” argument requires:
This to go unchecked from now to the election with mass economic disruption and death.
That scenario is the likely result – if everything continues from this point forward with the CDC/FDA continuing “business as normal”
But why do we presume that ?
First – we have not yet reached a failure to contain this.
It is still inside the realm of possible, maybe even likely.
All subsequent scenarios require Trump to recognize that CDC/FDA have “failed” and to react.
South Korea appears to prove that you can botch the initial response and still attain containment.
I have noted the numerous efforts to develop a vaccine that absent the CDC/FDA could be readily available in a few months.
It is one thing to demand high safety from a vaccine where the fatality rate is 0.1%.
It takes a moron to demand near perfect safety from a vaccine for a disease with a fatality rate from 1%-4%. There is almost no real world scenario where the risks associated with early release are not MUCH LOWER than the death rate from late deployment.
There are actually already laws on the books to address expedited drug and vaccine approvals.
Trump could easily issue an executive order requiring expedited vaccine approvals.
Quinnipiac Poll: 65 percent of Americans say Trump is not honest…
Of those “Sixty-nine percent of the independents polled said Trump was not honest.“
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/432698-poll-65-percent-americans-say-trump-is-not-honest
The numbers for the press and democrats are worse.
I just posted Glen Greenwald’s article on Both Biden’s obvious cognative failings and the fact that those bring this story to the public attention over the past YEAR were all DEMOCRATS,
And you think Trump is not honest ?
I have said before I hope Biden is not in cognitive decline. Both for him as a person, for the democratic party, and for the country.
If as appears to be true he is, that is a disaster.
For him personally.
For the democratic party
And for the country.
Regardless, the left the press, democrats and you are LYING about it.
There is no proof at the moment that Biden is absolutely cognitively impaired.
But there is lots of circumstantial evidence.
It is a LIE to claim there is no reason for concern.
It is also DECEPTIVE to attack those who raise this concern.
Is there some obligation for us all to put blinders on and pretend not to see the elephant in the room ?
It is a LIE that these questions originated with the Sanders campaign.
As Greenwald noted Just about every major viscious political attack of the past two decades originated from DEMOCRATS, and SPECIFICALLY From the CLINTON camp.
That seems reasonable. 35% is about the base he starts with.
I dont know why there are 35% blind to it, but there is.
His future depends on how many who believe he lies about insignificant issues in the grand scheme of things believe he is lying with the health security of America. That difference is important.
One issue that I think is going to become more apparent is governors of states are far more proactive than the federal government.
But this comes from someone who has little confidence in the federal government to begin with. Maybe this will allow some younger individuals to look at federal government in a way other than a substitute parent.
“His future depends on how many who believe he lies about insignificant issues”
Nope! his future depends on success in dealing with this.
There are lots of people predicting recession, and doom right now.
Frankly I think many of them HOPE for recession and doom.
I think lots of the media talking heads would happily see 1M deaths to get rid of Trump.
I do however think this will become the defining moment of Trump’s presidency.
Trump’s 9/11.
I think that as a people we are radically overblowing this.
This is just a bad flu.
But that does not matter, because whether we are rational or not – this will be what determines our vote in November.
But we will not vote Trump out or in based on what he has SAID,
We will vote him out or in based on how well this goes.
Based on the final outcome.
Trump will come off as either incompetent or the savior.
The CDC has screwed up testing.
Trump will get the blame for that.
If this kills 1M americans – Testing failures will be one of many many reasons people give for voting someone else in. But the real reason will be – how bad the outbreak was.
If this goes better than predicted – and everyone predicting doomsday right now is helping Trump, because they are setting the bar that he MUST get under – Trump will be re-elected.
The better he does at beating this early – the bigger his win will be.
I have little confidence in governors and mayors.
My governor just closed the liquor stores.
He should have extended their hours.
DeBlassio is managing NYC – do you really think he can handle this ?
As I noted to Priscilla – this is a Blue virus. It is really going to hit places like NYC hard.
It is likely to leave Iowa unscathed.
It’s my belief that all politicians lie, to a greater or lesser extent. Trump, in my observation, lies less than most, and many of his “lies” are bombastic boasts (this is the greatest economy in history!) than blatant falsehoods meant to mislead the public (I was against the Iraq War (Biden) If you like your plan you can keep your plan (Obama/Biden), Medicare for All will save everyone money (Bernie) …
It appears that Trump has been more than willing to stay in close contact with, and provide federal support to any governor who needs it. I already posted about Gavin Newsom, and Andrew Cuomo has publicly praised the President at least twice. I would like to think that all politicians would be more than willing to put aside partisan attacks at a time like this, but Newsom and Cuomo seem to be going against the grain of most Democrat politicians who were impeaching Trump while he was imposing a travel ban on China, for which they called him a xenophobe and a racist, but who now blame him for not doing anything quickly enough.
I listened to and have read Joe Biden’s coronavirus plan, and he very clearly states that he would allow NO travel bans, even from countries with extremely high rates of infection, and he would immediately reinstate welfare dependent immigration. He would establish a Department of Climate Change (which he claims is the cause of pandemics) and also one of “global health” whatever the hell that even means.
(No Department of Silly Walks, apparently).
Biden was part of the team that dealt with Swine Flu.
Other countries banned flights from the US
61M people were infected, 19,000 died,
Right now, what I see in NJ are serious local attempts to curtail social interactions that would help the virus spread.
Hoboken, just 10 minutes from NYC, and with a huge, single,millennial and Gen Z population just announced that bars which don’t serve food will be temporarily shut down, bars that do serve food will be able to serve take-out and delivery only, and there will be a mandatory curfew from 10pm to 5am.
I’ve read nothing about any financial assistance for the bar owners, but that may be coming on the federal level.
If we have to have these sorts of draconian measures, better that they are enacted on the local level, and monitored by the federal government. It’s the way things are supposed to work, and, because every state has different levels of infection, there may not need to be enforced curfews in towns where the threat is low or nonexistant ~ such as West Virginia, which, as of last night had no coronavirus cases. It is also far easier to roll back “martial law” declared by the mayor of Hoboken than by the POTUS, once the crisis is over.
Listening to Biden and Bernie give their speeches on what they would do, reconfirmed my belief that they would use the epidemic to vastly increase the size and power of the federal government, by creating new bureaucracies for climate change and “global health” (Biden), single payer healthcare and national rent control (Bernie), and both would use the military to enforce their controls.
“Never let a crisis go to waste.”
Any problem big enough to require vast government bureaucracies is too big to solve with government.
I found the reason BioHacking clip particularly interesting.
Here we have a grass roots, low risk approach, but with a low probability of success.
So unleash them. Reason talked to ONE of these groups, there are likely hundreds.
I think this is pretty simple give them the green light – with some caveats.
They must keep accurate records of everyone they “vaccinate”, They can only do volunteers.
They can not charge for the vaccine – until they have one PROVEABLY meets some standard of efficacy and safety. Limit the volunteers for each trial to 10,000.
Then let them go for it. We could have a safe effective vaccine in 6 weeks.
I would make another observation about Corona.
For the moment this is a Blue Virus.
It is going to be worse in the places population density is highest.
It not only attacks Blue places, it also attacks alot of Blu values.
Public Transportation, public gatherings.
Finally, our Democratic governor in his infinite wisdom has “closed the liquor stores”.
The objective is NOT to keep people from buying what they want.
It is to keep them from congregating.
You want to stop GATHERINGS.
You want stores to stay open 24×7 if possible, so that people can shop anytime of day or night – like at 3am when no one else is in the store.
I can’t remember if I shared this or not and can’t go through all the comments to see, but during a time of panic, some levity might help for those born before or around 1970.
From Facebook post a few days ago
John Travolta was feeling sick.
He was tested for Corona virus.
Good news when the test came back.
Not Covid-19
It was Saturday Night fever.
He’s stayin Alive!
Ha, that’s a good one, Ron.
Remember Cheers? A lesson for today’s bars:
https://www.city-journal.org/1957-asian-flu-pandemic
A very interesting article, Dave.
I was just saying to someone yesterday, that when my kids were small (they’re in their late 20’s/early 30’s now) there was no chicken pox vaccine. My daughter is a childhood cancer survivor, and, while she was undergoing chemo, I lived in terror of her getting chicken pox, which could potentially have killed her (even for a time after her treatment, the school nurse sent out a letter to all of the parents in school,letting them know that they needed to contact the school if/when their child was diagnosed with chicken pox, so that my daughter could be treated with anti-viral medication, if it was determined that she had had contact with them.
Of course, some years later, when one of my sons got chicken pox (by this time, my daughter’s immune system was back to normal) our pediatrician suggested that I encourage the other two to play with him, so that they would catch it, too. I recall my own mom doing that with the measles and mumps, despite the fact that both could cause permanent health damage or even death. But, supposedly, the odds of getting mild forms was greater if children got them at a young age.
Of course, now all of those childhood diseases have all been wiped out, and many parents are more afraid of vaccinations…..
I had chicken pox. I had mumps, I had several other common things.
The Polio vaccine was new and I did get vaccinated against that.
I think I got a measles vaccine. I do not think I got the measles.
Most of these are far more contagious than this.
There is a presumption there is one and only one way to deal with this.
There is only one acceptable reason for shutting things down as they are – that is an attempt to contain and kill this – much as the chinese appear to have done.
But we may have more of a problem as we have wider geographical distribution.
We can not just quarantine an entire city.
Right now I think what we are doing is this stupid stretch it out nonsense that is supposed to keep the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.
That is nonsense. All the healthcare system needs to do is only take critical patients.
Regardless dragging this out is actually a mistake.
There are actually alternative approaches.
One of which is DO NOT shut everything down.
Have the sick self quarantine AND have the vulnerable self quarantine.
For the res of us just let this run its course.
The greatest danger is to 70+ year olds – they should STAY HOME,
We can provide them with deliveries of food etc.
I am just over 60. I am not staying home, But I am being careful about where I go.
My risk is double that of my kids. Maybe a bit more.
Anyway there is only one acceptable reason to engage in this broad lockdown – and that is if you think you can stop this.
Just talked to a pharmacist friend. He asked if I took Ranitidine (Zantac) and I said yes. He said to check the NDC number and compare that to the recall on the FDA recall on their website.. Seems like the Chinese allowed cross contamination with NDMA. This can cause Stomach, bladder and kidney cancer. This recall occurred in january from batches from late summer.
Check yours if you take this acid reducer.
Sure Dave, Chinese give us great products!
You are behind the curve. Ranitadine and a number of related products were pulled from the shelves months ago.
Further the claim is bull. the “carcinogen” that you are getting in your ranitadine is at levers that you get in your daily life.
I have serious heartburn Ranitadine is a godsend. PPI’s have side effects for me that are pretty bad. And there is only so much calcium carbonate that you can take before going nuts.
Regardless, this is NOT some giant Chinese plot. It is the government changing the rules.
Ron, I think that one of the silver linings in this whole pandemic is that we may finally stop allowing China to be our supplier of essential medical supplies and other products.
I recall that a few years back, I stopped buying dog food and treats that were made in China, after reading about dozens of dogs who had died from eating a brand of chicken jerky for dogs that was made in China Now, dog treats are often emblazoned with American flags and labeled “Made in America” because so many people refuse to feed their pets anything made there.
I figure, if we don’t want our dogs to be eating food from China, we don’t want human food or medicine from there either.
China is not our friend, and the Chinese Communist Party places very little value on human life. Or canine life, apparently.
“I think that one of the silver linings in this whole pandemic is that we may finally stop allowing China to be our supplier of essential medical supplies and other products.”
Only if we dont have many like Dave that thinks letting China control our supply chain with “excellent quality” products.
“Only if we dont have many like Dave that thinks letting China control our supply chain with “excellent quality” products.”
China does nto control anything.
You are free to buy or not, to look for somewhere else or not.
To buy or not based on quality, price, or origin or any other criteria.
You are not free to constrian by force aka government someone else’s freedom to do the same.
I fully expect as a consequence of this that buying patterns all over the world will change.
They are changing all the time, and before this China was facing some moves to other contries and some moves to the US.
So long as not government is directing that – I do not care.
You continuously talk about China controling something – but they do not.
We choose to buy their products. No one put a gun to anyone’s head.
But you are looking to put a gun to peoples head. You are looking to dictate by force, “Do not buy from China”
I will always oppose that.
I have repeatedly told you that on ANY issue it is near certain that your idea of Fair and mine and pretty much anyone else’s will not be the same. That is OK, until we start using force to acheive “fair”.
Regardless, ANYONE’s idea of fair comes at the expense of freedom.
Free is not ambiguous. If you are permitted to do something you are free.
And again – I have never deviated from this.
I am not being contrary, I am being consistent.
It is not new. It is not about you. It is not about China.
There is no “we”.
You get to make choices for you, I get to make choices for me, Ron gets to make choices for Ron.
Each of us can choose to buy from China or Timbuktu. What you may not do is chose for anyone but yourself.
I have no problem with your chosing not to buy Dog Food or anything else from China.
I may make the same choice. but I do have a problem with your telling me where I can and can not buy anything.
China is not the PRC, and the PRC may well not be the power in China long.
So please explain, all penicillin comes from China, many other drugs come from China only! 80%-90% of all anribiotics only made in China.
So if I have a choice, what is it Einstein. Just not take the medication? Thats not a choice. That is force by drug companies making me to put chinese shit in my body to possibly save my life!
Antibiotics can be made anywhere. they are not particularly hard to produce.
If the fact they are made in china poses an actual problem – that problem will be brief.
As I noted in a post to Priscilla, the problem with economic blackmail is you get to use it ONCE only.
You radically underestimate the ability of production to move pretty much anywhere.
You also radically overestimate the advantage China has from labor.
Labor is only one factor in production, and China has serious problems in many other factors.
Nor is china unique in providing cheap labor.
You continue to make this straw man argument that because you do not at this instance have infinite choices, that you do not have free choice.
How frequently and for how long do you think China can blackmail you or the world over anything ?
Lets say China shuts down global experts of antibiotics or other drugs.
Or they demand 10 times the price.
Exactly how long do you think that will last ?
Further if China does that with anti-biotics – how long before not only does antibiotic production explode elsewhere – but production of EVERYTHING explodes elsewhere.
There is an enormous amount of research and economics on the economics of monopoly.
By the 1950’s REAL economists came to understand that even if a company dominated a specific market – to 90-100%, they STILL had to price their product competitively so long as their was a free market. Because a free market does NOT require multiple sources of all goods and services, it merely requires the freedom to assure that multiple sources are always possible.
One of the telling factors for REAL economists was discovering that the so called preditory pricing that the trust busters and other anti-trust regulation tries to prevent
HAS NEVER SUCCESSFULLY OCCURED. It has been tried – it ALWAYS fails.
Recently we had a perfect example with JP Morgan’s “whale”,
A London Trader with the full resources of JP Morgan behind him tried to quietly corner a specific market with the expectation that if he did so, he would be able to increase prices and benefit enormously from that.
A hedge fund in the US midwest manages to read the clues and figure out what was up, and they then bet heavily against him. Alone they were not strong enough but their attempt signalled the market of the struggle going on and others jumped in.
The JP Morgan whale was WIPED OUT – he lost JP morgan $4B dollars.
What you worry about is not possible – atleast not for more than very brief periods.
People who make a killing in the market, do not do so by DRIVING markets.
They do so by finding those places where the market is distorted.
George Sorros is purportedly famous for making billions by driving the bank of England to its knees.
But if you look at the facts – Sorros is NOT the JP Morgan Whale, he is the midwestern hedge fund. He is the guy who figured out that the Bank Of England had screwed up and was trying to overvalue, and he made a fortune by betting against them.
Sorros did not prevail because he was stronger. He prevailed because he was right and Bank of England was wrong.
Even national banks can not protect themselves from the markets if they screw up.
China is trapped in the free market whether they like it or not.
They can corner the market on antibiotics.
But they can only maintain that monopoly so long as they deliver cheap quality products
They can not deviate from that much, they can not even threaten or the market will destroy them.
The claim that you have no choice is nonsense. If the only choice for some product was China and China was unable to make customers sufficiently happy on both cost and quality – production would go elsewhere.
Do you think no other nation in the world can produce antibiotics ?
I would also note with antibiotics – and anything else.
The moment that production moves – the moment someone decides that there is a benefit to competing with China over a product like antibiotics.
The new factory whereever that is – it will be newer, more efficient, it will inevitably produce better quality product for lower prices – because that is ALWAYS true about a new production facility.
Markets can move very very rapidly.
I do not care what the domain is
Not having at this moment the choices you wish you had is NOT FORCE,
That is the core fallacy of the left, That your inability to have what you want, is the result of force – oppression by someone else.
I am not as musically talented as Robby – is that force or oppression by Robby ?
No sane person would claim that.
I do not have the choice of being a concert pianist or a super star guitarist.
I am free to try – but I will fail.
And it could be worse, I could be parapeligic – or otherwise disabled such that I am not even free to try.
I am also not 6-7. I am not going to be able to play pro basketball.
There are an infinite number of choices I do not have.
Does that mean I am not free ?
Does that mean force is being used against me ?
No one has used force against me because I do not have the choices I wish for.
At the risk of sounding like Stever Bannon, I believe that China is a country that practices economic warfare, and that we would be fools to allow them to continue, without pushback.
Over the long term, China hopes to establish hegemony over the world in the way that authoritarian dictatorships always desire, just that China has decided that the best way to do this is to cripple the US and other Western economies.
The upcoming election will decide many things, but one of them is that, if the Democrats win control, Trump’s defensive trade policies will be ended, we’ll go back to pretending that China is just a friendly nation in the world community, and we will ultimately surrender control of our essential industries to it.
You are likely right about what “China Wants”.
What they want is not important.
Remain committed to actual free markets, and China can only GET what free people allow them.
China’s response to Covid19 should make this clear. China does not give a crap about its own people. It kills myriads of people every year. But it does care alot about the global perception of its products, and ability to deliver.
The draconian efforts China took to kill off Covid19 were not out of concern for people. They were out of concern for markets.
The Chinese are much more aware than you that it is just as easy for manufacturing to move to india, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philipines, Malasyia, or myraids of other place – or even back to the US as it was to move to China in the first place.
You want to constrain china ? Who is going to do that ? Is it going to be you, your neighbor, Apple ? Or is it going to be Government, Trump, Pelosi, Schumner, …. ?
China is not particularly afraid of our politicians, they are like theirs – mostly corrupt and corruptable. China is afraid of YOU and I, and Apple. Nothing would serve them better than to have trade completely controled by negotiations by govenrments.
We should never think of government as the means to some ends that we can not reach on our own through persuasion. Government actively wants us to see it as the means of accomplishing our ends. but government almost never delivers on those promises.
Republicans make a big deal that blue cities are a failure for the core constituency of the democratic party. Democratic politicians are ranting about the republican responsibility for institutional racism. But the purported proof of institutional racism is institutions that democrats control exclusively.
Put simply when you give government power to do something.
You can be near certain that power will NOT be used to do what you asked.
It will be used against you not for you.
I am not telling you not to have concerns about China or anything else.
But express those concerns in your own individual choices and try to persuade others to do the same. And finally accept that if you fail to persuade that others have judged the problem not as serious at this time as you have. And that they are free to do so.
China has had an incredibly bad year, between the Trade war, Hong Kong Protests, and Covid19 I think you will see LOTS of businesses and consumers looking to move elsewhere.
That is the free market at work. I would further note that the shifts do not need to be large to have dramatic effect.
What you perceive as China’s leverage is just a message to consumers and suppliers to look elsewhere in the future.
You keep talking about China’s power to engage in economic blackmail.
That is a power you only get to use ONCE.
It is as simple for Apple or other major US companies to leave china as it was to go there in the first place.
I noted a long list of other countries that are capable of supplying all the same things China does.
But there is another choice that is politically difficult, but in all other ways easier.
Move back to the US. All the manufacturing that has gone to China could TRIVIALLY return to the US is we would eliminate Minimum wage laws.
Factories could be built quickly in TX, AZ, NM and millions of these people clamoring to get into the country could be put to work at wages comparable to those paid in China.
Us Supply chains would be shorter, delivers would be faster and cheaper.
I do not expect that to occur – the politics is probably not possible.
But that is quite litterally the US economic model of the 19th century that brought rapidly rising standards of living.
Open borders, no government involvement in the economy, no wage laws, no special benefits for immigrants, no safety net.
Over that period of time american standards of living rose faster than ever. Immigration was faster than ever, We promised freedom and people came here and found prosperity. And those already here prospered even more.
I am not worried about Democrats returning to control – they are their own worst enemy.
Republican political fortunes were significantly advanced as a consequence of Obama’s election.
We are in the midst of a pretty tecktonic political shift in the country.
I do not like all the changes that have occured within the GOP.
I would have prefered that the end result of the power struggle within the GOP in the past couple of decades would have resulted in more free market limited government libertarianish republicans taking power. but despite not getting exactly what I wanted the GOP has shifted dramatically, and the overall results are good, Republicans are well positioned politically for the future.
Democrats meanwhile are fractured on a pretty clear fault line – socialism.
It is irrelevant whether that is socialism lite or that there is no single cohesive unifying vision of that far left future. That is still the fault line within the democratic party.
And democrats are not even close to resolving that conflict.
The future of the democratic party is Bernie and his Bros’s or Warren or some other form of socialist leftism.
That is not a politically winning future.
Priscilla: The Chinese eat dogs, so the dog food they manufacture is probably intended to fatten them up for market rather than promote good health and longevity. I admire traditional Chinese culture, but China is still in the Dark Ages when it comes to animal welfare.
“The Chinese eat dogs”
In the 21st century, dog meat is consumed in some regions of China, India, South Korea, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Switzerland.
While eating dogs happens in many places in the world including china – it is illegal to sell dog meat in China.
As with the US lots of things that are illegal still occur.
But eating dogs is NOT common in China
“NEW YORK, March 13, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Today, Oscar, a tech-driven health insurance company, launched the first testing center locator for COVID-19 in the U.S., featuring more than 100 centers today. It is accessible to the general public and more testing centers are being added every day.”….
Great news. Doubly so for the Kushner family. (Get busy on Google, Dave)
Biden showed no signs of senility or dementia tonight. None. Time for the next nonsense.
I did not bother to watch.
if he did not – I am glad. I do not wish demensia on anyone.
But I doubt this is going away.
I watched some of it. Biden was much better than I’ve seen him for months. I think that the lack of an audience and not having to compete for time with many other candidates, gave him the opportunity to focus a bit better.
He did go full lefty though. What happened to him being the moderate candidate? He went all in on climate change being the “greatest threat to US national security,” absolutely NO deportations of illegals, even including felons, for the first hundred days of his administration, a guarantee that he will choose a woman vp, and a black woman supreme court justice, total support for sanctuary cities, no more drilling or fracking (he said no “new” fracking, but that means essentially no more fracking), etc.
I will say that I now think he’s going to pick Amy Klobuchar as his vp. Otherwise, why would he have guaranteed that his veep would be a woman, but his SCOTUS pick would be a black woman. It kind of implies that the veep will be a white woman, no?
I did not watch. I do not care.
Do you think the “I am not senile, I am a socialist” message is going to win the election ?
I have said before I hope Biden is not suffering from mental decline.
But I can tell you from experience, that those suffering from it can under the right circumstances pull it together briefly.
One of the things I had to learn dealing with my father.
One of the problems with dimesia, is that there is no special evidence. No specific symptom.
All the clues are things ordinary people do all the time. And you can under the right circumstances “fake it”.
The best evidence would be a series of MOCA tests over 6 months.
I found the moca odd, it looks trivially easy. But my father took it every 3 months. and there was a pronounced patter of decline, one greater than the rest of us could see.
I was dismayed by Biden’s leftward tilt, too. I’ve held out hope that he might be the one candidate capable of depolarizing this country — and I still do — but he needs to show some backbone and not simply pander to the lefties in the party. If he’s in favor of sanctuary cities, the Dems might as well have picked Liz Warren over Biden; at least she’s mentally fit and has the courage of her convictions.
Rick, wow, your actually joining the debate! Good deal.
Biden, moving left or being more moderate and depolarizing.
Remember, Biden said PPACA was a ” Big F’in Deal”. How much more left and non-moderate can one be supporting gov’t force, making people buy private company products benefiting the insurance companies by billions in profits since implementation.
A moderate position is medicare buy -in where individuals pay a rate set by actuarial studies and not fake rates set by government lifers and politicians to buy votes, with a govt support system for individuals with incomes based on a percent of poverty. A moderate position is not a system even further left of socialism where govt tells Rick you have to buy companies A insurance because company A is the only company selling insurance in Ricks locale like so many areas in America!
PPACA was a failure – maybe not quite the catastrophic one that some on the right hoped for but certainly a failure.
It will be interesting to see what Roberts does with it as it is infront of SCOTUS again.
Frankly he should kill it and let us all start over.
Medicare buy in is stupid too.
You can not price medicare properly – it is politically impossible. And if you do not price it properly then you ultimately destroy private health insurance and you end up with M4A in just about the worst possible way.
The estimates for M4A are also in and the cost is staggering. It just can not be done.
The fact is that medicare itself is stupid and is likely the most significant factor that has driven healthcare costs up over the past 50 years.
But your chances of killing it are near zero. But the very least we can do is not make things worse.
If not doing something worse has somehow become the extreme position – then I have ZERO interest in “moderates” and if that is the “moderate position” frankly I am prepared to call out “moderate” as immoral. If you can not offer something that is not likely to make things WORSE – then do nothing at all. We should have learned somethings from PPACA – we waster $2T so far for no consequential benefits – Worse we arguably cause healthcare costs to rise rather than drop – which should not be a surprise. PPACA is PRICE CONTROL, and there is no instance anywhere ever of price control working. NONE, ZIP, NADA.
BTW Medicare is itself a system of bad price controls – so we should not be surprised that it has increased prices.
So, I offered an alternative to government force from PPACA, as well as a solution to the greed of those who created much of the problems that exist today. And dont tell me that Medicare is the main component to the cost increase. It is part of the problem, but CON’s limiting competition, super huge CEO salaries, excessive insurance company profits and other issues have helped drive the problems faced by patients. The largest one, which PPACA did solve, is also addressed through Medicare buy-in.
so instead of telling everyone their ideas stink. tell us how you would try to solve:
1. lack of medical treatment due to being uninsured.
2. Those receiving medical treatment to solve life ending mecica! issues losing everything and filing bankruptcy.
3. Individuals who may have children with medical issues locked into jobs due to any change in employer coverage not covering the preexisting condition of the child.
4. Delayed treatments due to excessive deductibles.
5. Existing on canned foods, beans and other inexpensive foods in order to buy expensive medicines resulting in poor diets.
6. Excessive insurance premiums creating situations where premiums run higher than rent or mortgages.
I offered Medicare buy-in at rates matching experience rates for under 65 population. I also offered reduced premiums based on an individuals income to be adjusted by a cost adjuster based on inflation. I see the same thing happening with this new population in Medicare as what happened with Medicare Advantage. Competition increased coverage, decreased premiums and now provides much more than traditional Medicare.
So no more negative Nellies, if you shoot down a proposal you have to offer one. Doing nothing is not an option because too many are getting shafted with the current system, pre PPACA.
Your turn, fix the problem because doing nothing is not an option.
CON’s
Wow! So there is another disasterous government regulation that is making our healthcare more expensive!
In what world is it that you successfully refute the argument that government inteference in markets is a failure and I use ONE example – and your idea of refuting me is to produce another ?
Dave, you seem to be smart and well educated. I turned your “medicare buy-in” negative into a question.
So here is where I am coming from. When I was working on some issue and offered a solution, if my staff said “that will not work” and it was a project that had to have a solution, my next statement was ” what do you propose? ”
So, if you find my original response unacceptible, lets try this excercise.
We have a project to solve the problem created by government that has resulted in high medical costs.
….limiting medical schools limits #of doctors, increasing physician fees
….limiting nursing schools, pharmacy schools reducing # of graduates increasing salary cost.
….Govt regulations and patents driving up drug costs.
….C.O.N’s limiting competition, driving up procedures and hospital bills. Just look at Lasik that is not regulated like CT Scanners, MRI’s, hospital services etc.
….State regulation of insurance co. eliminating national plans that spread risk over a high number of subscribers and spread risk, driving up costs in some states.
….All resulting in high medical bills
….High insurance premiums
….Excessive deductibles
….Insurance dropping high users of services
So now you, a smart man, has been given a project to 1. address the short term solution to the problem created by govt intervention, that being individuals unable to afford insurance, 2, individuals unable to fully use medical services due to high premiums, 3, individuals being dropped from plans due to high experience rates and 4. people unable to obtain new plans due to pre-existing conditions for themselves or dependents.
Whats you plan for the short term. We will address the long term, that being elimination if the causes next step. I offer Medicare buy-in and you said that would not work. Help me out here to fix the problem.
Confronting your model directly.
What you were doing is excellent private business management.
It is one of the many ways the free market actually works.
I am not criticising your Business approach.
But every single issue that you have raised incorporates a FALSE premis that is not likely in the way you approached things in business.
That false premise is that whatever problem you are addressing is a problem requiring GOVERNMENT intervention – and that means requiring FORCE.
And my response to that will almost always be – NO. With extremely few exceptions, you may not use force as part of your solution.
But going back to your model. Absolutely make the healthcare market more free and “let a thousand flowers bloom” – and yes I know that was Mao.
Regardless, that is key to my point.
I think I am pretty damn smart, and I am pretty sure that if the healthcare market was sufficiently free that I could jump in without knowing what I am doing and learn enough to come up with a better way to address any existing problem.
But I am not stupid – and it is likely that in a free market dozens of others would do the same, and some of their ideas would be better than mine. ‘
When you raise all these problems I am NOT offering solutions. I am offering THE meta-solution.
It is irrelevant if I can come up with ONE better way to handle some specific healthcare problem. Because there are THOUSANDS of better ways. And if you increase the freedom of the market – you will not only get that competition you want between companies – which is NOT over all that important to bringing prices down, but you will get competition between IDEAS.
You want me to offer ONE alternate solution.
I am offering you no solutions at all, but the approach guaranteed to come up with thousands of solution most of which will be better than what we have, and a mechanism that will automatically and continuously shift towards the better solutions.
When you say government, what you will get is ONE solution.
It will with certainly be bent to favor those with power
If you keep government out you will get many solutions dynamically competing and dynamically evolving.
You will never solve any problem witrh government even a fraction as well as you will outside of government UNLESS that problem requires force to solve.
My plan is simple – get government out of healthcare and every other aspect of the economy to the largest extent practically and more limiting politically possible.
After that every single problem that you note and many you have not noted will be addressed, likely in dozens of different ways.
Solutions will be found that you and I can not even guess at right now.
And those solutions will be supplanted by even better ones, because outside of government there is not “An Answer” there are myriads of answers constantly changing and improving over time.
I can not sit here and tell you ‘my answer” – I probably can come up with a batter answer to each problem you list than government can.
BUT, there are tens of thousands of people like me or even smarter and more knowledgeable in their area, and among them are many that will come up with better answers to every problem you pose, that government or even me.
Your entire argument is a straw man.
And finally – from real world experience with pretty much every problem that government tackles. Government monopolizes the problem – driving all other solutions away, and however the problem is solved, the balance between the costs and benefits is nearly always negative.
PPACA did benefit some people, but it harmed others. Our healthcare is inarguably WORSE with it that without it. Maybe not catastrophically worse, but certainly enough worse that we are better off killing it off – even if we just go back to the mess we had before.
And PPACA is not unusual. It is the outcome we normally get when government tries to do good.
Jay, Still looking for your ideas to solve short and long term problems.
I am reading e-mail and responding in order, so I may address comments before actually getting to your comment.
I do not find Medicar buy-in govt force/regulation. People will be free to buy or not, into a product that provides specific services at a specific rate set by an agency just as private insurance sells a product that provides a specific service at a specific rate set by that “agency”. All to increase competition, just as you find with Medicare Advantage
Medicare is force/government regulation.
That you do not see the obvious does not make it otherwise.
You have personally already noted that Medicare does not pay its own way in your own real world experience. You challenged my numbers on that and asserted it was much worse than I claimed.
Medicare is FORCE.
All of us are FORCED to pay for it.
We are FORCED to pay medicare for others.
We are forced through private healthcare to subsidized medicare because it does not cover its own costs.
Medicare is FORCE regarding prices – it is a massive system of price controls.
Medicare is just dripping with Force.
That is why it works so badly.
If an insurance company limited its services such that they were not worthwhile or not competitive you would not buy them.
If an insurance company set prices and terms such that as a provider you could not deliver services you would not accept medicare patients.
To a very limited extent we see some of that. But mostly what we see is providers subsidizing losses from medicare with revenue from private health insurance.
Expanding Medicare should be a non-starter. Sanders M4A program would CONSERVATIVELY increase the federal govenment budget by 3.2T/year – nearly doubling the federal budget.
Any sane person would assume we need to kill what we already have not expand it.
M4A littlerally channels the joke about the salesman,
“The boss calls in the salesman saying you are losing $500 for each widget you are selling.
And the salesman responds – thats OK I am selling like gang busters we will make it up in volume”
In the private real world the salesman gets fired.
In government he is Bernie Sanders.
Boy, with all the people home and netflix running overtime, my internet reminds me of AOL on a modem!
Here is another wonderful example of stupidity. There were 5 hospitals in out metropolitan area. When we did analysis of charges using our self insured employee database that HR would provide to finance without patient identification, we found that we were anywhere from 5% to 20% less than any of the other hospitals. In the mid 90’s was when managed care became big business and all of those companies came to us and said we need a 10-15% discount so we can sell that to employers. We told them we were already 5-20% cheaper and no. They said then they could not contract with us. One guy was honest. he said, jack up your prices 20% and give us a 15% discount. We did, everyone signed and at that time there was about 35% of our patients that were either self pay or their insurance did not contract, they just paid charges. They were the one screwed because they ended up with the full 20% increase.
But going back to Medicare I don’t want M4A. Just look at the mess the CDC and FDA has created with the Covid-19 mess. But a competitive rate for Medicare under 65 give another option. i also want to see national plans for insurance and not state plans. If a company has employees in 50 states, why do they need 50 plans approved to meet each states unique requirement.
If M4A is a bad idea that costs way too much,
Then Medicare as an option under 65 is at best no better and probably worse,
And medicate itself is at best no better and probably worse.
The cost of M4A is 3.2T/year – they is NOT ballanced by consequential savings elsewhere.
The FACT is that under the BEST of circumstances – and M4A is likely the most cost effective form of Medicare, Medicare is actually much more expensive than other means of providing medical care.
This should not be surprising – I know lots of people claim Medicare is cheaper than ordinary medical services. But if that were actually True M4A would save rather than cost huge amounts of money.
I want to reduce the number of people on medicare not increase them.
The less free markets are the worse they work – for everyone, the rich, the poor, the middle class.
Do you beleive the things you have posted in the past ?
As I recall I said Medicare only pays about 95% of its actual cost – and you responded that according to what you had seen in the real world of healthcare it is much worse than that.
I do not doubt that.
But do you doubt what you have been saying ?
If not then why are you trying to expand medicare even a little ?
“As I recall I said Medicare only pays about 95% of its actual cost – and you responded that according to what you had seen in the real world of healthcare it is much worse than that.”
That is true. 65-70% of hospitals lose money on medicare patients. But that is overall medicare population. The older, long term medical patient generates huge losses, short term, surgical patients generate profits to offset the loser DRG’s.
The Medicare buy-in population would be younger, healthier overall and the services they receive would be more in the profitable category. If the reimbursement was the same as today.
Where did I hear this argument before ? Oh, Yes, PPACA. How well did that work ?
Whether you are correct or not – each case presents a different failure mode.
Either you are moving a healthy population that will not cost much to medicare – in which case you are harming insurance companies, AND it is irrelevant how frequently they use heathcare services – Medicare is STILL money losing for hospitals and doctors.
Or they are not healthy – which is likely for those people who choose Medicare because they can not afford private coverage, and they cost the government too much.
Regardless fundimentally you are still dealing with the allocation and elimination of scarcity.
NOTHING does that batter than free markets, So why are you avoiding the answer ?
We are totally in different places.
You keep trying to solve problems – mostly using government.
I do not want state health insurance plans I do not want national health insurance plans.
I want the federal and state governments out of regulating health insurance.
i want free markets – that is where sellors try to figure out how to make money by giving ME what I want. – not what the state wants, not what the feds want.
Good grief Dave, wake up. When I said NATIONAL PLAN I meant private insurance SHOULD BE allowed to sell one insurance plan in all 50 states. If GM creates an insurance plan with their insurance provider, that SHOULD BE ALLOWED in all 50 states. Right now they have to design plans to meet all 50 states different requirements.
I feel sorry for you wife and kids when someone has to be so explicit in their language. If my wife had been like this, I would have divorced her years ago.
Again just get government out of health insurance.
I can not name any involvement in health insurance by government that is good.
ERISA which was supposed to protect the insured from the insurance companies, actually prevents those with company paid health insurance from suing their insurance company and the government mandated process takes forever and you will lose.
Just everywhere you look in insurance – government is making things worse.
I do not want to debate lables for regulations.
Just get rid of the regulations.
My wife is a lawyer. I get cross examined all the time.
Everyone in my family – including my kids is used to getting flack if they are not accurate.
When you are talking about force – aka government precise language matters.
The degree of specificity required in your grocery list is between you and your wife.
OK Defining “SHOULD BE ALLOWED” = no laws or regulations against it. not a law saying it is OK
A CEO’s salary is too high when the shareholders refuse to pay it.
If you are not a shareholder, I do not give a shit about what you have to say about a CEO’s compensation.
I would venture the shareholders in Polaroid and Kodak would have paid their CEO 10 times as much – had he kept the companies from going bankrupt.
I do not address CEO pay at private hospitals. I address them at non-profits where the good ol boy network works.
When I entered healthcare, nurses made in average $5,000 a year and hospital CEO $50,000. Ten times different. Today, for instance, the average for an RN in my area is $70,000 and the CEO is around $7,000,000. One hundred times the RN salary.
There is no way in hell someone sitting on mahogany row is worth one hundred times the salary if the person saving lives!
No you cant controll this until business leaders ” you scratch my back, I scratch yours” attitude changes and they recognize this problem.
If you think the CEO pay at a non-profit is too high – don’t contribute.
I am not a huge fan of non-profits. I think they suffer from many though not all the problems of government. BUT non-profits are entirely voluntary.
That said I would revise our tax laws.
I would completely eliminate all business taxes.
That would concurrently mean that a “non-profit” as something of special government interest no longer exists.
If there are no business taxes, there is no difference from a government perpective between a for profit business and a non-profit business.
This is not a huge deal . but it would break down some of the arbitrary distinctions.
I actually think it is reasonable, even wise for a charity to seek to profit.
What is wrong with putting the handicapped or the homeless to work ?
Even at a profit, then reinvesting the profits in expanded services.
Regardless, that would also make it clear that regulating “non-profits” was up to contributors, not government.
The only way to judge a CEO’s sallary is by looking at their performance, and government can not do that.
In an actual free market all companies profits are regulated by the market.
No business will profit more than its risk justifies for long.
Any business that is making excessive profits will have an influx of competion.,
Thee only times you get sustained high profits without high risk and without competion is when government creates barriers to entry – the health insurance market being pretty much the perfect example.
BTW most health insurance companies lose money on health insurance.
Like MOST insurance they make money by investing premiums.
The essentially profit from investing the float between the time they receive your premiums and the time they have to pay out for your care.
How would I solve ….. ?
I think I have been crystal clear on every single one of these and many many more you have not raised.
Aside from enforcing contracts, adjudicating tort claims and investigating, and punishing crimes GET GOVERNMENT OUT of the economy.
1). Medical treatment is available to anyone in this country insured or not.
What you are claiming is not that it is unavailable, but that it is unaffordable. ‘
Prior to the great depression there was no consequential health insurance in this country. People broke their legs and sustained all kinds of injuries and illnesses, and even ordinary workers could afford a weeks stay int he hospital or a broken leg.
The major health factor for ordinary people was NOT medical costs – it was lost wages from an injury or illness.
In India today the cost to deal with a broken arm is about $300,
Indian doctors are sufficiently qualified – that we bring them to the US.
India technically has universal government healthcare – but that is in name only. In point of fact India has free market healthcare and a thriving medical tourism business.
The price of plastic surgery has declined over time in the US. But it is even cheaper in Brazil, and it is also better quality than the US. If you want the best sex change operation cheap – go to Thailand. In both countries these elective procedures are both cheaper and of higher quality than in the US.
If foreign free markets can deliver people all over the world quality cheap medical services why is it you do not think the US could with actual free healthcare markets ?
“1). Medical treatment is available to anyone in this country insured or not.
What you are claiming is not that it is unavailable, but that it is unaffordable. ‘”
total bull shit You get wheels into XYZ Healthsystem with a heart attack and you have good insurance, you get 4 vessel bypass or 8-10 stents implanted. You get wheeled in with Medicaid, you get angioplasty at best and sent home with medicine, only to have another attack in 6-12 months!
“total bull shit”
You are not arguing that medical care is not available to everyone.
All you are arguing is that everyone does not get equal medical care.
So what ?
We do not each get to own a Corvette either.
If you have a heart attack today – rich, poor, health insurance none.
Your odds of long term survival under all circumstances are better than 10, 20, 50, 100 years ago.
Medicare did not do that.
Free markets did.
Look arround, in the ACTUAL free market the richest retailer in the world is not harry Winston selling diamonds to the rich. It is Walmart selling toilet paper to the poor
You asked about heart attacks. If you got government out of medicine, you would have something closer to lasik.
In the US there are 1.5M heart attacks per year. That is a HUGE market for something that works.
I can now buy Lasik for $200/eye from companies that have performed a million operations and today’s Lasik is much better than what my father paid 2000/eye a few decades ago.
That is what free markets do.
In most of healthcare we do not have free markets.
You noted the care differences driven by money.
In a free market there are far more people who can not afford that top of the line care you are talking about. That means there is a huge underserved market of people getting poor care.
All you have to do is a little better for the same money and you will get rich.
Add freedom to the health market and who knows, if you have a heart attack Dr.McCoy may waive his tricorder over you and stop it in its tracks and heal any damage.
2). I call BULL CRAP.
Elizabeth Warren did the seminal study on this. Despite her celebrity on the issue neither her own data nor her published analysis support your claims.
There WERE about 1M bankruptcies a year at the time of Warren;s study – I think current numbers are done 40%.
Of those only 1/3 involved health care costs. Of those the average amount of total healthcare expenses discharged in bankruptcy was $2500
We are talking about a problem that has a yearly cost of less than $1B. Today probably less than 500m.
This is not a problem justifying ANY government action.
And if we limit this to “life ending medical problems” – that is probably only 1% of that $1B,
Start a “gofundme”.
3). Children are a choice. Jobs are a choice.
When I chose to have children I gave up numerous opportunities I could have persued had I not had children.
Further I knew when I adopted my kids that one or the other might have problems that would further change my life. My son – who fortunately turned out to be perfectly healthy purportedly had a seizure disorder when we chose to adopt him.
I think Children are wonderful. I do not regret my choice. I would not have regretted it had my son proved to actually have a siezure disorder that would have changed the course of my life.
But I do not get to pass on the costs of my free choices to others. – not even choices related to children.
If you have some unusual need for assistance – ask me for help.
I get to choose whether I will help you or not.
I get to choose whether I donate my time.
I get to choose where and how much and for what purpose I give to others.
Why do you have the right to decide that i must give to some older american with a terminal illness rather than some child who is not getting milk in Africa ?
It is outside of our ability to “save the world”.
Not voluntarily, not by force.
YOU do not have the right to FORCE me to chose to make my contribution to the betterment of the world in the way you wish.
You do not seem to grasp that so many of this problems that you are demanding that I give you solutions to – are not problems that you have any right at all to demand solutions from anyone else.
You do not seem to grasp that making others do good in the way of your chosing is actually evil.
4). Embedded in your entire list is this presumption that we are all entitled to whatever medical treatment YOU deem appropriate in the time frame and quantity you deem necescary.
No one has gotten out of this live alive in 150,000 years. We will all die. We will all die of something. We are all terrified of Covid19 – because it kills, mostly old or unhelthy people who are likely to die of something soon enough anyway.
My father was dying from strokes, and just to reduce his risk of stroke he had to risk bleeding to death from an otherwise treatable disease. but there was no miracle cure than would prevent both bleeding to death from Crones disease and severe colitus – both of which are treatable, as well as from strokes – which could be reduced but not stopped.
And in the end he died from Pnuemonia as a consequence of being forced out of his home by the courts. And as a result of accusations he was autopsied – and we discovered that he was also suffering from a genetic liver disease that would have killed him in a few months had nothing else killed him.
All of us will die. GET OVER IT. Most of us want to live a long, productive happy life.
Some of us even get that. But it is not guaranteed. Life is not fair.
Those of us less fortunate are free to appeal to the charity of those of us who are more fortunate. But we are not entitled to it.
In the US you might delay medical care due to deductibles.
In Canada and the UK, you have no choice, government will delay that care for you.
5). REALLY ?
We have expanded the faux right to healthcare into a faux right not merely to food, but to especially healthy food ?
Go back 50 years – you are old enough to remember that. How healthy did you and most other people eat then ?
Go back 100 years ?
Go to most other countries in the world.
Guess what ? Few of us have sufficient money for everything we want.
We ALL have to make choices. My car is 15 years old. I would like a new one.
But I would rather go to dinner occasionally with my wife.
We make choices about money all the time.
I get phone calls all the time from insurance agents looking to sell me health insurance.
I get offers of family policies for $200/month – they are crappy policies, and if I buy them I better look after my basic health needs myself. I probably should not go to the doctor if I get a cold or the flu, but they will cover me if I get cancer.
For young people in good health and no significant assets – in fact for pretty much anyone without significant assets going without health insurance is possibly an economically wise choice.
As YOU said – you can go bankrupt.
You can not claim the solution to one problem is itself an indepent problem.
“Doing nothing is not an option because too many are getting shafted with the current system, pre PPACA.”
Self evident Logical fallacy.
Why is doing nothing not an option ? Why is it that everyone else must pay to solve something YOU decided was a problem – even though as evidenced by PPACA your proposed solution is likely to make things worse ?
Why do you presume that you are entitled to a perfect world ?
God did not bless me with musical abilities, I am not good at sports, I have had a wide variety of misfortunes happen to me in my life – through no fault of my own. I am not blessed with perfect health. I am not blessed with good eyesight. I can go on and on.
I am no more or less entitled to any of these things than I am health care.
People git “shafted” all the time.
My wife was sexually assaulted 6 months after we were married – can you fix that for her ? For me ? My family was all nearly killed in an automoble accident a little over a year ago – can you solve that problem ?
One of my siblings is a narcisist, another is paranoid, and the last is a sociopath.
And as all hear are sure to agree, I am not “normal” – still inside my own family I am the epitomy of mental health – regardless – can you fix that ?
Can I demand that you solve all my problems my way – and that EVERYONE ELSE must pay for the solutions – just because you can not or will not offer a better answer ?
There is no right to anything you are demanding.
END OF DISCUSSION.
If you want my charity – ask.
If you pick my pocket you are a theif, regardless of why you do so.
Competition is one way that free markets reduce prices and increase costs, it is an important one, but it is not the only one.
And it points out a problem with everything that government attempts.
Free markets are NOT a collection of specific solutions and processes.
You can not extract competion from a free market and impose it in a different system and expect it to work the same.
The primary mechanism of the free market is FREEDOM, not competition.
Free markets give you the right to try anything that you are not deprived of by nature.
They do not give the blind a right to see, or the poor the right to be rich.
The do not even assure the right to try. They just assure you that force will not be used to deprive you the opportunity to try to accomplish anything that is within your power.
Success is up to nature, chance and your own efforts. If you do not like that – get over it, because no other system provides better opportunity to succeed. You are railing agains thr wind.
Regardless, my point in this post is that free markets are not about competition they are about freedom. Competition without freedom will get you nowhere.
But freedom willl not merely allow us all to benefit from competion but myriads of other things.
Starting at approximately the time of the housing bubble bursting I took an intense interest in economics. More so than ever before in my life.
I developed a voracious appetite for economic literature. I read economicss papers and blogs and arguments and books, and ….
I spent years delving into economics – especially the data and the results of analysis of that data. What I ultimately found was pretty consistent – while it is damn near impossible to prove causation in the real world as we do not have laboratory conditions to test out economic theories. Our real world experiences – both in the distant and recent past, both in the US and other countries, only consistently supports classical liberal economics, The economics of Hayek, Coase, Friedman, Not Marx, or Keynes.
There are no counterfactuals to free market economics. While those to marx and keynes are myriad.
Over time, I have lost my intense curiosity regarding economics. I no longer peruse the top economics blogs in the world each day. I no longer look to see if neo-kensyians or MMT’s or … have come up with a better argument or new data or if some new argument against classical liberal economics holds water.
The results of years of study of the best economists int he world – living and dead, pointed to a single conclusion. Free markets work, the freer the better, nothing else works a tiny fraction as well. If you wish to challenge that – go ahead – with FACTS, DATA, LOGIC and REASON.
But I have zero interest in unsupported claims that run affoul of what is established with the best certainty possible in the real world.
I am especially not interested in “solutions” that have NEVER worked – like assorted permutations of price controls. When you say you want to regulate “excessive profits” – you are first talking price controls, and you are second eliding the question of what is excessive – why is some profit “excessive” – why do you get to judge that ? Why do you get to judge with force the actions of others that have not used force ?
Almost everything you proposed ultimately is a permutation of price controls.
While I stated before that it is hard to prove causation regarding most anything in the real world – due to the complexities of the real world – the failure of price controls is probably the closest thing to a proven economic fact that there is. There might be room for debate about exactly how bad price controls will be. But there is no credible argument that they have ever worked. There is no reason to beleive they ever will.
Further – and this goes well beyond economics. The world is way to complex to prove anything as absolute truth. But that does not preclude the ability to prove something is most probably true, and further to prove ABSOLUTELY that somethings are FALSE.
If you want to fix health insurance – get government completely out of it.
I can not see a compelling reason for regulating health insurance in anyway at all.
Health insurance contracts are technically yearly, but they are paid monthly and people can drop out at any time.
Absent government messing with health insurance you have an environment for near perfect free markets. If you do not like your health insurance – drop it and buy another.
If you get stuck with a fly by night health insurance that is shit – quit and buy another.
If a health insurance company fails to provide the coverage they contracted – they have breached contract and you can sue, Further it is likely to also be a tort, and depending it could easily be fraud which is criminal.
I have zero problems with government enforcing contracts. I have zero problems with filing criminal fraud charges against those in insurance companies who sell insurance that they do not back up.
Those are the legitimate actions the government can take with respect to ANY private transactions.
I strongly suspect that insurance companies facing the possibility of mass torts, and even potentially criminal fraud changes are unlikely to offer insurance they do not back.
Further we live in the internet era – you should be able to go online and find out the reputation of the insurance company that you buy from.
So why exactly do we need government regulations of health insurance AT ALL ?
BTW I am not even slightly interested in “bad actor” arguments – regulation has NEVER done anything to mitigate bad actors.
One of the things far too few of you seem to realize is that business is far more affraid of criminal prosecutions – punative damages for breach of contract, and mass torts and punative damages than any regulation ever. Most businesses – especially big businesses love regulation – because the courts have generally found that if business follows regulations, they are immune to tort and contract claims. And that enforcement of regulations is a government agency matter not a individual one. So when a regulated business screws you over, you can not sue, and if the regulators do not hold them accountable – which they almost never do, that nothing happens. AGAIN – why do you think big business loves regulation ?
“I was dismayed by Biden’s leftward tilt”
I would not let that bother you. Biden’s promises like 99% of politicians, but NOT like Trump or Sanders are lies. Biden will act as president as he did as vice president and as Senator.
If you liked that – vote for him, and forget what he is saying.
If you did not – again forget what he is saying.
Trump and Sanders you can take at their word. At the very least they will try very hard to do what they promise.
You can decide whether to vote for either Sanders or Trump based on the political commitments they make.
This is purportedly what is now being refered to as authenticity.
I am not sure that is correct.
I do beleive Sanders actually beleives all the things he says and promises and therefore is “authentic”.
Conversely Trump is more of a business person. I do not know what he beleives.
I do however know that he is highly likely to keep his campaign promises. Even if he is only telling people what he thinks they need to hear to vote for him.
Regardless, you should have little Trust that Biden will do what he says he will – whether it is left or right or center.
You can have a great deal of trust that Trump and Sanders will try to do what they say they will.
“I’ve held out hope that he might be the one candidate capable of depolarizing this country — and I still do”
Polarization is not going to diminish because some mesiah shows up and heals the country.
It will end when it ceases to work. That is up to us, not candidates.
In the past it was more the right than the left trying to instill fear and intolerance, and silence specific viewpoints. Today that primarily (though not exclusively) comes from the left.
There are multiple reasons for modern political polarization.
ONE of those has been the wide spread adoption of Alinsky’s rules for radicals.
You should read them. They are highly effective, they are also morally wrong. They are designed to win debates – not through better arguments, but through gamemenship.
Regardless, if you read them you will recognize that the use of many has thoroughly inundated our political system. And most of that through the past 50 years has come from the left.
That said – I have no problem agreeing that Trump has adopted the same techniques – and he has done so effectively. But to many of us who have been the victims of the lefts politics of intolerance, turn about is fair play and Trump comes off as a hero rather than a villian.
Much of what Trump says – should not be said in civil discourse. Absolutely.
But that rule went out the door long before Trump.
Look arround, Trump is far from alone in his attacks. But he is almost alone from the right.
Nearly everyone on the left is visciously personally attacking – not just Trump, not even just Trump supporters – but ANYONE who does not think as they do – even on a single issue.
The attacks on Gabbard should be very telling. Why are those on the left accusing Gabbard of being a “russian asset” – With Bernie Sanders in this race – Trump and Gabbard are the people who you accuse of being russian assets ? Really ? If you are claiming that how do you expect me to take you seriously about anything ?
Regardless, if you look at “the right” outside of Trump – there are few “attacks” – at least in the viscous manner of the left.
i have cited one reason that polarization today is a problem specific to the left.
There are many other reasons that is true.
Look at our lives OUTSIDE of politics. Are we rioting on the streets ? Are we disowning our relatives over which type of peanut butter they buy ?
You say the nation is polarized. But it is ONLY polarized over politics. That does not mean we agree over everything. But we are not looking to impose our preferences for peanut butter on each other by force.
Polarization is and always will be primarily over POLITICS.
FURTHER, it will ALWAYS be driven by those trying to impose their will by FORCE on others.
The most politically devicive acts of the right are with regard to abortion. Abortion is unfortunately a matter that is almost assured to be devicisive. Abortion MUST involve the use of force, and pretty much must involve government in some way.
Beyond that the right is (mostly) not trying to FORCE everyone in the country to live according to their values.
But the left IS.
Not only is the left seeking to use force against others – it is inherent in leftism BY DESIGN.
The left is ALWAYS selling us some new “right” that only government can secure for us.
Without debating the merits of past “great society” programs of the left – where does it end ?
And what does the left do when it does ?
Lets say that either quickly or over a few decades the left succeeds at delivering the entire Sanders agenda. “free” healthcare, free childcare, free college, higher minimum wage, paid family leave, …… And lets pretend they do not destroy the economy in the process.
And lets pretend that somehow in incrementally bring about socialism – which we know does not work that they still somehow by magic make it work.
What next ? What other “free” thing does the left have to give away to all of us ?
The reason for the bitter polarization is that the survival of the left depends on promising to give BY FORCE ever decreasing benefits to all of us.
Is it beyond your ability to grasp that MUST result in increasingly bitter and polarizing politics ?
Just look arround. You are old enough to have lived through the “summer of rage”, the vietnam war, Stonewall, myriads of seminal events as these country slowly became more tolerant of race, sex, gender, orientation. My elementary school was lily white, My High School had two blacks and no other minorities, I attended an experimental summer program that took inner city blacks and rural whites and educated them together. We nearly had race wars – it was the 60’s. Today my church, my friends, the businesses I frequent are black and brown and asian, and gay and straight and “a little bit of both” – outside of westborro baptist church almost no one is trying to turn back the clock. About the only thing I see today from the right is a demand for the same tolerance of their views as we currently have for minorities, and sexual orientation.
Whatever you think our problems are – and almost no ones head is in the sand – we still have lots of problems we are STILL in the least racist, sexist, homophobic nation in the world at the least racist, sexist homophobic moment in history – except tomorow.
Yet if you listen to the left – we are not in the best moment in history – we are in the worst.
That position is NOT accidental. The left can not continue as a political force if it can not stoke hatred and division.
Would much of the democratic party today exist, if we accepted that the world was actually pretty good. That we are not all steeped in hatred for each other.
I have argued here repeatedly that the modern cause of political polarization is the left.
I am also arguing that the cause of political polarization MUST come from the left.
Only the lefts political survival depends on keeping us enraged and polarized.
It does appear that Biden managed to get through the debate without drooling and launching into some word salad.
But I am following numerous sources – many of them on the left and despite the lack of gaffes the view is the debate did not go well.
Biden apparently tried extremely hard to tack left. To attempt to make peace with Sanders voters. but the sense I am getting (from them) is that Biden does not have their trust.
And tacking left is alienating those democrats not on the left.
One of several sites I follow is the Hill’s “The Rising” – not because I agree with either host. But because they articulately express the views of a much younger generation.
I think they are wrong, but they are still smart and still represent a large perspective today.
They are both thoroughly unimpressed by Biden.
Having a good day – meaning standing toe to toe with Sanders without looking like a blithering fool, is not the same as having a good day – meaning leaving the debate having unified the party and drawn voters to him. Sanders did not score any knockout blows that will put him back in the running, Biden likely clinched the Democratic nomination. But he also reduced his chances of winning the general election.
https://thelibertyherald.com/2020/03/16/is-the-covid-19-response-the-end-of-president-trump/
My thoughts also.
Three thing I heard this morning.
1. Goldman Sacks projects a decline in GDP of 5% in second quarter. That is huge.
2. Some health experts say the flattening of the curve will put the peak in June, not spring.
3. Full testing so we know when this is really winding down will not occur until mid-April. Until then no one knows the extent of the problem.
This “flattening the curve” approach is NONSENSE.
You kill this or you let it run its course.
The “flattening the curve” approach amplifies the economic damage RADICALLY, in order to “protect the healthcare system from being overwhelmed”.
But to what end ? Dealing with the healthcare system being overwhelmed is trivial.
Triage OUT people with Covid19 except those that have severe problems that the healthcare system CAN do something about.
The healthcare system itself is NOT an end.
The ordinary flu taxes our healthcare system every year.
Yet, the healthcare system can do little or nothing about the flu.
Dave, I have no idea about the infection curve. My field of training is healthcare finance and reimbursement, not medicine. I will leave that to the experts trained in that field. If they flatten the curve, then after the epidemic is over, we will know the outcome.
There are many choices under our control. Thus far they are being done increasingly badly.
Trump has effectively dumped this problem onto state and local governments
and atleast at the early stages they are doing horribly.
DeBlassio is clueless,
In my local community the Criminal justice system is coming apart, problems that have relatively easy answers, are being botched, because too many in politics are making the choices that best protect them as individuals, at the expense of the community as a whole.
It is currently impossible to make predictions, and I am not really interested in what some healthcare experts say.
What will be increasingly clear quickly is that society is NOT run for the benefit of the health care experts or the health care industry.
One of the reasons that free markets defeat socialism is that humans have myriads of competing needs at all times. Top down planning inherently can not balance those needs.
If Healthcare experts want temporary power to broadly change society they MUST deliver results. They must kill this and quickly – if they can not do so, all they are doing is proving their own stupidity.
China appears to have contained this. Data from China is untrustworthy, but we have gone over a week and containment appears to be holding and it is unlikely that the chinese data can be wrong enough for that to not be true.
It is very early to assert this but it also appears that South Korea has actually contained this – despite very early problems.
These “experts” can say what they please. The relationships of nations to each other is near perfect anarcho-capitalism.
If the China And South Korea – with fairly different systems both manage to contain this,
Those in public health in the US will be judged by the standard of those who have done better.
Americans are not going to be tolerant of claims that this will take until the fall (if the peak is June) if it is gone in China and South Korea in a month.
Dave China and South Korea are much different than USA. China locked down one province, forced isolation and quarantining. Korea identified cases much faster, allowing people suspected of disease to isolate. In addition, SK is smaller than many of our states. They can lock down their borders. We cant loc down Washington, California or New York.
We also have a much different cultural system than south korea. Saving face and reputation to the oriental people is very important. Most of their decisions are made with this in mind.
Government employees in America make decisions based on one issue. “Me”. If its good for me, piss on everything else. Their is not one politician that does not make a decision on 1. My career 2. My party 3. My financial position ( payoffs by supporters) 4. My voters 5. America as a whole. All in that order. Government employees make decisions on 1 and 3 only. I doubt you would find anything this widespread in SK.
There is another big decision. The elders are held in high esteem in South Korea. In America, if you can live on your own, fine. If not, dont bother me with your problems. Move where someone else can take care for you. If your old, stay home and avoid viruses, but dont bother me with your increased risk.
Yes, I have a very low regard for government workers, lower still for politicians and my regard for younger America declines a little more each time we have a crisis like this. To few are like the young that run to the military, nursing, first responders that put themselves in harms way. Too many put themselves first.
South Korea and China are different – correct.
And you are correct that there are different factors that benefit in containing this.
But ultimately the success and failure of other countries – regardless of culture will be what we measure oursleves against.
We are americans. We beleive our culture is better in every way than others.
We expect to do better in everything.
I would note this is bidirectional.
Europe is doing far worse than we are.
Just as our policies and government will be judged negatively as compared to SK and PRC, they will be jusdge positively compared to Europe.
BTW Korea did NOT identify cases much faster.
It just found itself in deep shit really fast and as a consequence scaled up its response very fast.
Trump was criticized for “closing the borders” too soon. things would be much worse if he had not.
That said, he should have closed them sooner.
The CDC should have done a much better job of dealing with those peopel who arrived from China BEFORE the borders were “closed” as well as a better job of self quarantining and tracking those who were allowed in from China very early.
This COULD have been stopped at the airports.
There will ultimately be negative assessments in that specific regard.
My son is Korean. I have my own hanbok. My family has been attending Korean cultural events for two decades. I am somewhat familiar with Korean Culture.
I beleive that incentives are important.
The differences between “government workers” and those in the free market are relatively small.
The differences in behavior are due to differences in incentives.
Those differences are not (and should not) be corrected.
I am NOT a fan of running government like a business. I am NOT a proponent of efficiency in government. I am an advocate for LIMITED government.
I do not want the DMV to work better – I want it to go away.
This has also taken the focus off Trump.
We are now watching as our governors, and mayors and country commissioners and … handle this. Thus far they are doing abysmally.
The local courts have re-organized to protect the judges at all costs – by increasing risks to everyone else.
regardless as I said alot of the focus is not away from Trump and the federal government.
Our tolerance for protracted measures is going to be incredibly low.
There are now atleast a dozen potential vaccines. All they require is some form of testing to move to public use.
We are not going to tolerate a 10-18 month delay for testing just to make sure that no one gets psoriasis from the vaccine.
the safety of the vaccine must be about 2 orders of magnitude greater than the virus itself.
Think about it ? If you have a choice between taking a chance with the virus and taking a chance with the vaccine – how much safer does the vaccine need to be for you to choose the vaccine ?
I do not think there is a way in hell this continues for long.
People will tolerate this for a few weeks, not for many months.
If there is too big an impact on GDP – government intervention will not be tolerated.
Reduced GDP has as much or even more potential to do real harm as the virus itself.
“Reduced GDP has as much or even more potential to do real harm as the virus itself.”
Agree. Certainly way more long term harm.
Wow! Agreement.
There should be dancing in the streets.
Economic growth is extremely important.
In many instances it is equivalent to human lives.
I have used the example that reducing the speed limit for trucks to 5mph would save lives.
But it would also waste the real equivalent of actual human lives.
Each 700K increase per year in transportation time is one additional wasted human life.
But even beyond hours and dollars reducing growth ultimately means real humans die of other things.
We could reduce the Covid19 deaths at the expense of GDP and end up with more deaths in other places.
Sometimes the relationships are very attenuated, but they are still real.
We know that higher gdp/per capita means longer lives and less deaths. But we do not always know EXACTLY how. That does not make it not true.
We will see a version of this as we start talking about vaccines.
If we get a vaccine that works RAPIDLY we will both save lives and improve the economy.
But if we move faster that vaccine has a higher risk of side effects – including death.
If there was a Covid19 vaccine available RIGHT now that would reduce your odds of getting Covid19 by 50%, But the vaccine itself had a 0.1% chance of killing you – would you get vaccinated ?
We can delay 6, 12, 18 months and siginificantly improve the safety of the vaccine.
But people will die in the meantime, the economy will be harmed and potentially millions will get sick.
So what do you do ?
According to existing Biohackers they can have a vaccine in 6weeks.
It has an incredibly low possibility of causing you harm – this is an entirely new way of developing vaccines that is much safer, almost perfectly safe by design.
BUT the caveat is it has less than a 50% chance of working.
I would say GO FOR IT, and anyone who wants it should be allowed to have it.
But right now, you could go to jail if you went forward with this.
Mayor DiBlasio, who procrastinated reacting to Covid, is taking harsh criticism from Left & Right.
But Trump and R-pols and FOX underplayed the crisis for weeks – putting us all at higher risk – and nobody on the right is criticizing them.
Trump, the foot-dragging double-talking denier, when asked about the slow botched roll-out of testing said “No, I don’t take responsibility at all,” for any of it. Not even of admitting he poorly advised people to keep working less than a week ago. Today he rated his response to coronavirus crisis in the U.S. “as a 10 out of 10.”
Whenever I see him now I’m reminded of Captain Queeg the fictional unstable skipper of the destroyer-minesweeper in The Caine Mutiny film, fondling those steel balls in his sweaty hands, rambling about strawberries… If Queeg was in present time, he’d be rambling insanely about whether or not he should risk visiting the mess hall for virus tainted strawberries…
Jay, I am trying to asked this in a way that does not seem that I am supporting Trump nor trying to make you look bad.
Do you really believe a president knows if CDC has effective test kits for any virus or disease that might hit the country?
Do you really believe that same president is involved with the development of those test kits?
Do you believe the president reviews every departments policies to insure they are effective?
And if you do, please explain what your reaction was to the 800 people who dies in 2009 from the swine flu.
Just to be clear, I have clarified and noted that I made a mistake and certainly created a false impression regarding private TESTING.
The big deal is that it is clear that we missed a few early cases we could have picked up had CDC allowed doctors, states, etc. to have patients they beleived might have COVID19 tested – even though they had no apparent exposure.
I am NOT backing down on the fact that “test kits” and their federal availablity is a red herring. The resources of the CDC should have been devoted entirely to finding people who might have been exposed and getting them to self quarantine.
If someone MIGHT have been exposed – there is no need to test.
The value in testing is identifying people you do not KNOW were exposed but who have the right symptoms.
Do i beleive Trump was involved ? NO.
But that does not matter. The buck stops at the resolute desk in the oval office.
If you want the job of president, you get the blame for everything the government does – except those instances where people actually defy you. Comey and Crew as well as Mueller and his team are on their own, They can not pass the buck up to Trump.
I can be sympathetic to your argument – but voters are not.
Swine Flu – approx 61m infections, appox 13,000 deaths. NOT 800
It is estimated that in the 2009 flu pandemic 11–21% of the then global population (of about 6.8 billion), or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people, contracted the illness—more in absolute terms than the Spanish flu pandemic. However, with about 150,000–575,000 fatalities, it had a much lower case fatality rate. In August 2010, the World Health Organization declared the swine flu pandemic officially over
CDC illness and death estimates from April 2009 to April 2010, in the US are as follows:
CDC estimates that between 43 million and 89 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 61 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
CDC estimates that between about 195,000 and 403,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 274,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
CDC estimates that between about 8,870 and 18,300 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April 2009 and 10 April 2010. The mid-level in this range is about 12,470 2009 H1N1-related deaths.[180][181][182]
“But Trump and R-pols and FOX underplayed the crisis for weeks – putting us all at higher risk – and nobody on the right is criticizing them.
On January 23, as the Trump administration was receiving information about the epidemic in China (which China had lied about and hidden since November), the Democrats were making their opening arguments in the impeachment trial which they had been 100% focused on since October 2019. They did not give a damn about public health, or anything else. It was all impeachment, all the time.
By January 31, as the Democrats were trying to get new witnesses called in the impeachment trial, Alex Azar formally declared a public health emergency, and Trump ordered travel to and from China halted. Democrats called him a racist xenophobe for doing so. Joe Biden, who last night claimed that he would be sooooo tough on coronavirus, said:
““In moments like this, this is where the credibility of a president is most needed, as he explains what we should and should not do.This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia, hysterical xenophobia, , and fear mongering,”
Fear mongering, huh? For declaring a public health emergency and temporarily banning travel from the country of origin? What a big, tough guy that Joe Biden is!
Meanwhile, the Democrats continued to pursue impeachment. Only after Trumps acquittal,on February 5th, did the Democrats begin to hold hearings on the virus, and began immediately claiming that Trump had not acted decisively enough,
Now, in March, Congressional Dems want to get tough. And blame the American President, for what is a global pandemic foisted on the world by China, a communist nation, ruled by a real tyrant.
What cowardly frauds they are.
Trump did get this right initially.
Biden has ZERO credibility on this. His version of “So Tough” would have a million in the US dead” That would be the outcome had Swine flu had the mortaltiy of Covid19.
Swine Flu vs. Covid19 is a perfect comparison for Trump vs. Biden.
Swine flu was aparently LESS contagious – and 61M americans got it, and LESS lethal and approx. 12K (low end) died.
Further the first Swine Flu case was april and the Obama administration got a repreive because for reasons we can only guess at the Flu slows down dramatically during the summer. Trump MIGHT get the same benefit – but he will have had to deal with 3 months of growth first. Further it is likely but not certain the summer will slow this down.
With Swine Flu the rest of the world shut down travel From the US – we were the “bad guys” who lost control.
Inarguably we have done better than almost everyone else.
All that set – Trump sits at the resolute desk. I can explain to you why the CDC F’d up, but the blame goes to Trump.
This could have been stopped at our door. It is increasingly unlikely that it is going to be contained. We have shifted to trying to buy time.
I am not going to let Trump off the hook for the CDC’s failures.
There are three big ones.
China travel should have been shut down earlier.
Travelers from China from before the shutdown should have been traced tested quarantined and their contacts quarantined – and CDC knows better.
While the two few test kits crap is a red herring, the CDC shutting down all other testing but their own is criminally negligent. There is no harm – not even to wasting resources – so long as they are not CDC’s resources. Mostly the CDC did enough testing – testing of people that you are going to quarantine is pretty much irrelevant. As I said the test kits are a red herring.
But blocking all other testing was stupid.
As I have thought of this more – some kid in engineering school with acccess to an electron microscope can do testing. When I took my son to look at Lehigh University, they told me that students had public access to 17 electron microscopes they could use for whatever purposes they wanted.
An electron microscope is NOT the most efficient way to test for Covid19.
But it would work. Further I should think that even an engineeing student could tell a Corona Virus from many other viruses. Even if you can not positively identify Covid19 merely ruling out all cases that are not Corona Viruses is useful.
I am overly fixated on engineering students and electron microscopes and my point is that there are a variety of means of testing that would have been readily available had FDA/CDC not got in the way, which they did not need to do.
So Trump does deserve blame, this happened on his watch.
But I do not expect perfection from government.
This is not over. It is not that unusual that mistakes get made in a crisis.
What matters is how you move forward.
It might still be possible to contain this – I suspect not.
I am not a fan at all of trying to slow this down for the purpose of protecting the healthcare system. Fork the healthcare system. We should not burn the economy down to keep hospitals from being over crowded.
There is arguably a model where we deliberately infect everyone healthy under 30 or possibly 40 and keep everyone older away from them for 14 days as the means of burning this out nearly instantly. I am sure that is a really really hard sell. But it would work, and it would likely radically reduce the death toll.
It is near certain one you get this you are immune, and this will burn out once large numbers of americans are immune.
Put simply a Covid19 infection is the same as a vaccine for those it is not likely to kill.
We did used to deliberately infect people with Cow Pox to protect them from Small Pox – it was one of the first vaccines ever.
But that does bring us to more reasonable possibilities.
We should be RUSHING a vaccine.
The required safety of a vaccine is not some dictated by god criteria.
It is math. It is the risk/cost/benefit of whatever vaccine you have at the moment vs. doing nothing, vs what you might have at some point in the future.
A perfect vaccine that arrives to late is useless, While a dangerous vaccine that works and is available now might prove a godsend.
“While a dangerous vaccine that works and is available now might prove a godsend.”
Although, there is always the possibility that there might be negative side effects of the shot, and that, for some people, those side effects could be dangerous, or even deadly.
And the narrative would likely be “Trump is killing people with the vaccine!!!”
As a country, we can no longer tolerate any risk at all, and, everything must be politicized.
Pricilla:
1/ Name any main Dem who criticized Trump’s initial China travel stoppage. Name ANY Dem’s who campaigned for the presidency who criticized it. Name any Dem House or Senate leaders who criticized him for the stoppage. I’m waiting…
2/ Try to think this through: Why did Trump take a positive mini-step to stop the virus from entering the US via China, and then do nothing but make light of the seriousness of the threat (two weeks ago Trump was calling coronavirus the Democrats’ ‘new hoax’ and telling Americans it ) until last week? If he didn’t believe the virus was a serious threat (he didn’t) why shut down Chinese travel? Think. Think. (grinding wheels). HINTS: The Impeachment was BIG NEGATIVE NEWS for him; the Chinese weren’t acquiescing to his tariff impositions; and American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines had already announced that they would suspend air service between the United States and China for several months. He did what he does: wiggle and dance his way back into the news cycle.
3/ If Dubious Donnie gave a rat’s butt about the seriousness of future pandemic infection in the U.S. why did he call for an almost $700 million reduction to the CDC’s 2021 funding budget AFTER the COVID 10 outbreak began?
“1/ Name any main Dem who criticized Trump’s initial China travel stoppage. Name ANY Dem’s who campaigned for the presidency who criticized it. Name any Dem House or Senate leaders who criticized him for the stoppage. I’m waiting…”
How about 219 ?
The “No Ban Act,” introduced by Rep. Judy Chu (D-CA) and co-sponsored by 219 House Democrats, would have prevented Trump from immediately implementing a travel ban on China once the outbreak of the coronavirus spread past its origins of Wuhan.
Likewise, Democrat Senators Christopher Murphy (D-CT), Christopher Coons (D-DE), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) have introduced legislation to stop Trump’s recent expansion of a travel ban
Please note the date – 2/1/2020 – Biden’s criticism was targeted at Trump’s Travel Ban.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/481028-biden-slams-trump-for-cutting-health-programs-before-coronavirus-outbreak
And here – earlier Biden specifically criticises travel Ban’s
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/01/27/coronavirus-donald-trump-made-us-less-prepared-joe-biden-column/4581710002/
I would further note that The Obama administration DID NOTHING regarding travel in both the Swine Flu and Ebola outbreaks.
2). VP Biden allowed a disease with a mortality rate that is between 1/2 and 1/20th of Covid19, and a spread rate about 1/2 of Covid to kill about 17.000 americans and aflict about 61m more.
Todate there are 1/3 less CASES of Covid19 worldwide than there were deaths worldwide from Swine Flu.
None of the measures that have been taken thus far were taken against H1N1.
Obama did not take most of them even against Ebola.
It is possible that this ends up worse than H1N1 – it is certainly a far deadlier disease – and Trump responded when the first 5 cases were discovered in the US
And Trump did not “do nothing”. He let the CDC do their job – they did that job in much the same way as government always does, the same way the CDC did under Obama.
Partly very well and partly very badly.
While private actors tend to do significantly more good than harm as compared to government, as a rule no crisis is ever handled perfectly. Not privately not publicly.
The question is whether it is handled “well enough”.
It was – in theory possible to stop this from getting a foothold in the US.
That has NEVER been done with an airborne virus before. It is possible that if a few things had been done just a little better that it would not have gotten a foothold.
It is also possible that was inevitable.
Regardless, we are tens of thousands of deaths and tens of millions of infections away from the determination that Biden is better at public health than Trump.
Wow! Everything for you is about motive.
Why were we moving forward at this time with impeachment – when democrats and republicans as a whole could have been seeking to tackle something that is near certain far more important to the american people ?
If you wish to look into the mirror and attribute bad motives to everything anyone you do not like has done – anyone can do that.
If Trump was focused on impeachment rather than Covid19 and placed too much trust in CDC, then so were you, so were democrats.
And CONTRA to your First Claim – at the very time you are talking about – Trump DID restrict Travel from China AND Democrats DID attack him for doing so – HUNDREDS OF THEM.
Presidential candidates.
Here is Biden specifically attacking the travel ban.
There MAY also be a Feb 5. Tweet from Schumer criticising Trump’s travel ban.
Some of the sites that back up deleted tweets by politicians have a copy, and others do not.
There is now a fight over which archive sites are politically biased.
https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/03/14/biden-insists-on-opposing-coronavirus-travel-ban-despite-the-advice-of-experts/
BTW Both Biden and Sanders STILL oppose the Travel restrictions.
3). What ? Because something like Covid19 is possibel we shoudl infinitely fund CDC ?
This has been debunked, None of the cuts had anything to do with anything that would effect our ability to deal with epidemics.
CDC has a very limited legitamate role with regard to epidemics.
Pretty much everything else it does is outside the scope of government.
So CUT IT!
So once again you have made a bold and stron – and ludicrously false claim.
You are claiming that Priscilla is lying.
Except that you did not bother to check google first.
Where ever you got this nonsense that democrats did not oppose the travel restrictions – you should stop trusting them
Just as no one should be trusting you
Jay, I hate to always disagree with and contradict you, but you must not read any sources other than maniacal TDS sites and Twitter haters!
Almost as a whole, yes, the Democrats called the travel ban racist I can’t list the links, because of the WordPress policy but I can quote you some of your favorites:
Your Guy Biden:“In moments like this, this is where the credibility of a president is most needed, as he explains what we should and should not do. This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia, hysterical xenophobia, to uh, and fear mongering,” ( I have linked this quote before, which Biden made at a campaign rally|)
As Dave has noted, House Democrats attempted to pass a bill that would take away the President’s Constitutional power to impose any travel bans.
The Washington Post and New York Times were right there, doing the same, and claiming that Trump was trying to distract from impeachment.
Trump NEVER called the virus a hoax. He called the Democrat’s attempt to weaponize it a hoax. The hoax lie folows the same MO as the Dems saying the Trump called Nazis “fine people”
I don’t know about you Jay, but I have seen the best in many Democrats, who have dropped the insane Trump bashing rhetoric that has been the norm for the Party ever since 2015: Gavin Newsom, Andrew Cuomo, Chris Coons, and others. I applaud them for putting the safety and welfare of people above their political party. Once this crisis is over, they’ll go back to politics as usual, which is fine, but for now, they have shown that they can be leaders and work with the opposition party in a crisis. I consider them patriots, as I consider Trump.
Queen Nancy and the rest of the TDS crowd have been parroting Chinese propaganda and trying to load up the coronavirus relief bills with millions in subsidies for outfits like Planned Parenthood. Their behavior is disgraceful, and when thhis is over, I believe that they will pay a heavy price at the ballot box.
At least I hope so,
Priscilla, one thing I dont understand is the agreement with Canada to restrict passage at the border except for critical needs and trade and there has been no reports about that occuring with Mexico. If I were the Mexican president, I sure would consider it myself with the huge growing problem at their northern border.
Wonder how Queen Nancy would respond to that with her open border policy.
You want to attack Trump on this – go ahead.
IT can be argued that he and CDC screwed up.
I think it was actually possible to stop this from getting into the US.
And even after it did to catch it early and keep it from spreading.
They failed, that is self evident.
It is also self evident that Trump and CDC did BETTER than most of the world.
So far only China and South Korea seem to have contained this.
Most of the world has done atleast an order of magnitude worse than Trump.
Government sucks. News at 11.
As to Fox ? I do not give a damn.
Trump was ciritized by CNN. MSNBC, … for shutting down travel from china and then Europe. Yet that is probably the single reason this is about 5-10 days behind Europe in the US.
As too “botched testing” – purportedly Europe has done much better – how has that worked for them ?
After very careful review of the facts and some thought, and learning what CDC was actually doing. I revised my view of the tests.
The CDC prohibiting private labs from testing MIGHT have prevented us from containing this.
Regardless, government should NEVER interfere with private actions not involving force.
But the wide spread testing you are talking about is NOT the critical tool that government should be using.
I absolutely positively DO NOT think Government should be paying random people to go out and get tested.
At the start of this the #1 most important and most effective task Government needed to do was chase down anyone who came here from china and quarantine them – voluntarily or by force if necescary.
If every passenger arriving from China had been quarantined for 14 days, and if we shutdown international air travel when the rest of the world got this, we would have ZERO cases – even if we never did a single test.
With the exception of a few rare cases testing is s STRAW MAN.
You do not need to test people who were exposed.
You quarantine them PERIOD for 14 days.
Testing of exposed people is nearly meaningless.
You are not going to release them if they test negative.
The purpose of testing is to identify people who have this that you do not KNOW were exposed. Testing does not become meaninful until you have failed to contain.
Reagrdless testing is a SECONDARY tool.
Un – Trump only partially stopped Chinese travel into the US; the ban didn’t stop the constant shipping of cargo into the US on Chinese ships and planes; it didn’t stop thousands of Chinese from hop-skip entering the US from other nations.
And some of the panic-reactions here (fanatic hand washing; nationwide shutdowns of bars restaurants arenas etc) could be more important for lower numbers (hopefully-we still have way fewer tests than other nations, and therefore unreliable stats) than travel restrictions.
“Un – Trump only partially stopped Chinese travel into the US;”
Correct, I am not aware of anyone who has claimed otherwise.
“the ban didn’t stop the constant shipping of cargo into the US on Chinese ships and planes;”
Yup, I have been getting deliveries from China almost every day.
There is pretty much zero chance of Covid19 surviving on surfaces through the travel process and duration.
” it didn’t stop thousands of Chinese from hop-skip entering the US from other nations.”
I would be surprised if the number were thousands.
Regardless, it did not stop Chinese from flying to the US directly from China.
The ban was initially limited to travel too-from effected areas.
Further we did check passengers coming from China for illness or possible exposure and quarantined large numbers.
Finally – nothing would stop someone from China from flying to Mexico and crossing the southern border. And you and democrats have worked hard to preclude even the possibility of stopping that.
“And some of the panic-reactions here (fanatic hand washing; nationwide shutdowns of bars restaurants arenas etc) could be more important for lower numbers (hopefully-we still have way fewer tests than other nations, and therefore unreliable stats) than travel restrictions.”
Actually NO. We are actually acting relatively early even on those measures.
Further they are NOT designed to stop Covid19 they are designed to stretch it out.
They will do nothing to reduce the total number of Covid19 infections, they will just make it take longer.
There are only a few ways to STOP something like this.
1). Quarantine anyone coming into the country who might be infected.
Quarantine anyone who came in contact with anyone who might be infected.
This is what the CDC attempted and failed.
2). Develop a vaccine – this reduces the total number of infections but it takes time.
3). Totally quarantine the entire country for about a month. (or atleast all areas where there are infections).
All the behaviors you are talking about SLOW the virus, they do not stop it.
There are not many people saying this, but there are a few health experts and even more economists who are saying this “social distancing” is a mistake.
That “protecting” the healthcare system from being overtaxed is not a legitimate goal.
While protecting the economy is.
Stretching this out will not reduce the total number of infected people – unless buying time gets us to a vaccine, it probably will not reduce the number of deaths.
But it WILL result in much greater economic loss, more lost jobs and lost for much longer.
The Kalman model predictions for the US are several thousand cases in NY, WA, and CA, but insignificant in most of the rest of the country.
We will see what actually happens. But that model has been very accurate for China – down to the city level, as well as South Korea and other countries.
Los Almost modeled between 550,000 and 4.4M total cases of Covid19 globally.
That is a late Feb Model. I can not find a newer one.
JHU indicates that the rate of increase in the number of cases globally has decreased dramatically recently – suggesting that we are somewhere near a peak.
It is possible that all the models are wrong. It is possible that JHU is wrong.
I have been paying extremely close attention to China. Because there are competing claims as to what will happen there as China relaxes restrictions and returns to work.
One claim is that as the quarantines are lifted Covid19 will explode in China again.
If that occurs we can expect that Covid19 may spread through the US much like H1N1 except deadlier.
The other alternative is that new Covid19 cases in China remain low.
If that is the case – The US is unlikely to come anywhere near the number of infections or deaths of H1N1
I do not know what the future will bring.
But you seem to think regarding Trump – that this is over, that there is nothing left to do, that Trump failed and there is nothing left for him to do besides watch as his political aspirations go down the toilet.
Why do you beleive this is all over ? You have this odd nothing that the world is static, that the virus has come, that any mistakes have doomed us and Trump.
In Congress Faucci said that any vaccine that was ready for testing now would not be ready for approval for 12 – 18 months.
WHY ? There is not some natural law that dictates how long it takes to approve a vaccine.
Nor should there be.
The safety of a vaccine is a simple MATH problem.
How effective is it. What is the level of risk, what is the level of risk of the disease.
Ebola has a 30-50% mortality rate.
If I had a 100% chance of contracting Eboloa, I would take a vaccine that had a 50% chance of working and a 10% chance of killing me.
Wouldn’t you ?
I know you think Trump is stupid, but do you think that he and everyone arround him is too ?
Do you think that people who have made billions in international realestate, are unable to do cost benefit analysis ?
You seem to think Trump’s political prospects are in the toilet.
So why do you think he is going to sit on his hands to do this Captain Queeg thing ?
I do think Trump has mishandled some aspects of this. Among other mistakes, he placed too much faith in the CDC. They screwed up Swine flew under Obama, whey would we expect that mostly the same people would do better today ?
But you seem to think this is over ?
The first big thing Trump needs to accomplish is to assure that the US does better than Europe.
That alone seriously undermines your claims of incompetance – especially when the attacks are coming from the left.
Those selling us Sweden can not complain when the US is handling this better than Sweden.
The biggest problem Trump faces is that South Korea appears to have contained this – after a bad start.
Regardless, this is far from over, and the political damage you are certain of requires Trump to sit on his hands for 8 months.
How likely do you think that is ?
I would further note that if the only thing Trump accomplishes is avoiding a deep recession, and keeping this from getting worse than Europe – he is likely to win.
The argument that Trump is incredibly incompetent only works when there is no comparisons to be made.
The better Trump does on the economy, the better than Trump does on fighting this compared to Europe – the better he will do in the election.
I would further note that Biden can not make hay of this. Biden was VP and lead for Swine Flu, unless Covid19 kills more than 20K people in the US and/or infects more than 60M Trump will win in the comparison to Biden.
Further Biden has already offered a plan that would have failed worse.
Stoping airtravel from china was NOT SUFFICIENT, but it was absolutely necescary.
Massive testing early on would not have done better or even as well.
You would be wise not to confuse your Trump fantasies with reality.
If you actually recall the Caine Mutiny the plot twist at the end is that Queeg is not the Villian.
The crew who we have rooted for through the story actually are.
But equally important Queeg is not Trump – clearly.
Queeg is a navy man who rose to captain of a minesweeper in WWII.
He is not a Patton, or Eisenhower, or Nimits, or Spruance or Halsey.
Trump could probably be compared well to Halsey or Patton.
A poltiical Queeg equivalent would be a Re. Katie Hill, not a president.
not even Schumer or Pelosi are down at the Queeg level.
Queeg was barely coping as a minesweeper captain.
Trump has coped with every single thing you and your ilk have thrown at him.
You would be very unwise to presume he is done.
You seem to think Trump is already to join Hillary – while she bemoans sanders disloyalty and the Russians, and anyone else she can blame, you think Trump has already resigned himself to ingnomiously blaming Corona.
An different perspective:
“Many people are convinced that China’s lockdown worked, prevented infection and that we should immediately follow suit. I disagree. An article in The Lancet, a medical periodical, studied the early phase of China’s epidemic, and concluded that the virus had spread to all corners of China before they even started the lockdown in the Wuhan area.
So by inference, they had positive cases that began probably in early December 2019, probably even in November. The so called lockdown started on January 23-24th, when they realized they had several atypical pneumonias in their hospitals in Wuhan, linked to the COVID-19 virus. By the time they implemented social distancing, the virus had already infected thousands. By that time it was too late. The “viral cat was out of the bag” and nothing they did that followed had that much effect to slow the disease progress despite what TV pundits are saying. In fact I don’t recall that they ever halted domestic airline traffic and they continue their daily airline domestic flights throughout the country, and also continue some international flights. Ergo, worldwide spread.”
https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/physician-speaks-out-social-distancing-is-a-mistake-virus-is-spread-by-surface-contact/
I do not know if I agree with your article, but it is interesting.
There is alot of information that we have – and much of it is inconsistent or conflicts.
But there are means to test this. If the article is correct Iran should peak and decline,
The article is correct in that the claims it makes are POSSIBLE, Virus’s do mutate, there are few viruses that hang around for very long times.
The article is also correct in that it is possible that what we are doing is the wrong thing, and it is possible that we do not have sufficient information quality to know.
When this runs its course – we will know all or most of the things we do not know know.
I would note – China did NOT use social distancing. They did massive quarantining and mass surveilance to identify contacts. that is sort of what CDC tried to do – without going to the NSA to track everyone by phone.
I tend to believe that the numbers from China are wrong.
There is also an increasing body of evidence that this began in China in November not late December, and that it was passing human to human for almost a month before China new what was going on.
It is odd how most of the vile things in US politics over the past could of decades all loop back to …. Hillary Clinton.
Yes, The Russians attacked out elections – WITH WORDS. Are those on the left so teriffied that they must silence everyone ?
It is also amazing. Clinton is the architect of the “Russian Reset, of the Uranium One Deal, Her husband received 500K in cash from the Russians, The Clinton foundation received over 100M And Hillary Clinton has the gaul to claim others are “russian assets” ?
At firtst I thought this articles Claim of Modern MacCarthyism was over the top, and then I considered how often claims of Treason are leveled against anyone who does not fall into line supporting leftist nonsense.
We do need to do some things about our election security. We need to assure that those who vote are citizens. We need to assure that we can trust that nothing corrupts the counting of our votes.
We do not need to do a damn thing about anyone from anywhere expressing an opinon regarding our elections.
For decades we have heard the left rant about the influence of money in politics. In just the primary for the 2020 election two billionaires have spent almost a Billion Dollars – mostly bashing Trump – to no effect. So much for the claim that money is the determinative factor in politics.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/neo-mccarthyism-spreading-faster-coronavirus-133192
So Mueller’s most significant case – the only one actually targetting Russian’s “bits the dust”.
Worse the US government is getting Sued by Concord for Billions.
BTW the claim that the Trial would pose a National Security threat is Boguis as several legal observers have noticed. This case was 2 weeks from Trial. Concorde has already received all the discovery they are going to get. the “threat” is that if The Mueller prosecutors moved forward the Public would find out they have no case.
So it takes 12-18 months for a vaccine to be approved
When this pops up in China next December and it spreads to the USA,
do we get to go through this social distancing all over again?
“So it takes 12-18 months for a vaccine to be approved”
False. That is what FDA SAYS.
There is no law of nature that says that.
There is not likely even a statue.
When the risk associated with the vaccine is lower than the risk associated with NOT being vaccinated – that is the point at which the vaccine is ready for use and should be approved.
This is an excellent article.
To summarize – we do not know most of what we think we know about Covid19.
The data we have todate is messy, self contradictory and with near certainty wrong.
That inherently means that there is no possibility of knowing that what we are doing is making things better or worse.
It is possible – though unlikely that we are reacting in a hysterical panic to a not particulrly unique variant of the common cold. other Corona Viruses have the same fatality curve that Covid19 does.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
I would suggest to Jay and democrats that Covid19 could extremely easily explode in their faces.
Given the number of unknowns, the possible range of outcomes is enormous.
But high among those is that this may disapate quickly.
Should we not see total disaster, or even nothing even actually all that bad
Even if that result is the natural result – even if it is what would have happened anyway,
Trump is going to get and take credit.
And having spent months telling us all this was armagedon, it will be very hard for the left to backtrack and claim this is just a common cold.
The article I linked comparing this to the cold should be food for thought.
40% of Colds are corona virus’s. They have a tendency to have much the same mortality curve as Covid19, They spread much the same as Covid19.
Millions of people get colds every year and thousands of people die from them and the world goes on, we go not shut everything down and panic.
Our current data is sufficiently bad, this need not even actually be equivlanet of a bad cold.
But any outcome that is not millions dead will result in Trump being declared our savior.
You can revel in the panic that exists for the moment, but most outcomes for this ultimately leave Trump stronger not weaker.
Dave: The common cold doesn’t have a 4% mortality rate (8-10% for seniors). Can you imagine if your chance of dying was one in 10 or even one in 20 every time you caught a cold? This bug is a different beast.
I lament the financial effect this pandemic will have on businesses as well as individual workers. Would you allow the government to help see Americans through this crisis by subsidizing businesses and sending checks to workers deprived of their work? This is where governments come in handy, wouldn’t you agree?
Rick, I don’t know what Dave’s answer to this is, but I agree that the government must and will act to avert a complete meltdown of the US economy.
Looks to me that, with the exception of some on the right, who are worried about a government power grab, and some on the left, who are worried that too quick a recovery from this will help Trump’s reelection chances, the majority of Congress, particularly those in the Senate, are focused on getting this right.
Of course. “getting this right” can be done in more than one way, but, without leadership at the highest levels of government, it won’t get done at all, and the US economy will suffer catastrophic damage.
There is pretty much nothing that government can do to deal with the economic effects.
I am resigned to the probability that the left and the right will actually unify to wast trillions of dollars to pretend to do something meaningful.
Money that we will all have to repay later.
But the economy will be dealt with privately.
Draconian restrictions will be needed to snuff this out.
But if those restrictions last too long – people will rebel.
Absolutely I think that both left and right are seeking to take political advantage of this.
And myriads of people in between.
I may respect many within the health care community – and in this instance the government health care community. But I do not presume they are gods, nor experts over things that clearly NO ONE is expert at, and even more than there expertise in narrow fields of health is inherently of great value when many factors – not just health are in place.
We should never forget that an unhealthy economy causes great harm – even death to people too. The objective is NOT the most perfect healthcare outcome – it is the best outcome for society – and that is rarely what field specific experts advise.
I would further note that even though I respect many of the people involved – myriads of biases come into play. Almost every “expert” speaking on this hedges their bets, they all allow even amplify the odds of the worst case scenario, then the press amplifies that and then the people do so again. We see variations of the same thing with Global Warming. With few exceptions I beleive that these scientists actually beleive what they are selling.
But it is not supported by the evidence.
Does anyone beleive Faucci or any other CDC, FDA, WHO, NIH, …. expert is going to stand infront of everyne and say – this may not be that bad, or we should not destroy trillions of dollars of wealth to defeat this ?
I do not know what the answers are – but neither do they.
Further i get irrate everytime another health care expert says it will take 12-18 months to get to a vaccine. That is BUNK. That is the perfect example of the healthcare elite thinking entirely within their own world, and it is a perfect example of why free markets work and government does not.
I believe I have counted 9 different vaccines that are entering or ready for human trials now.
Biohackers beleive they can get something for $25-50K in less than 4 weeks – and that would not be ONE thing, that would be DOZENS of possible vaccines at 25-50K each in 4-6weeks.
Many of these will prove ineffective. all of them will prove to some degree dangerous.
But I have ZERO doubt that in a very short time we can have a vaccine with sufficient testing and proof of effectiveness that the risk of NOT using it is greater than the risk of using it.
Regardless, AGAIN – just like Covi19 testing – leave this to the market place.
If in a month or two I have 10 choices of vaccine each with a different probable effectiveness and a different level of safety I am capable of choosing for myself which to take.
Or choosing to take the risk of waiting another month for something better.
I have absolutely zero doubt that left to the “experts” at NIH, FDA, … that will will not hava a vaccine that they will approve for 12-18 months.
Because health experts – like the vast majority of other experts are MATH CHALLENGED.
Ordinary people are capable of doing personal cost benefit analysis, but “experts” in most any field are not.
My point is that if we are dependent on “leadership” from government – we are F’d.
I do beleive that Trump in particular is more incentivized than the normal politician to solve this. And that Trump is ultimately not going to go along with the CDC, FDA, …. holding the entire world hostage for 12-18 months while we wait for them to approve a vaccine.
But the answers – the solutions to every single problem here come from the marketplace, not government.
We do not need “leadership” we need government to get out of the way.
I expect that every business impacted by this is going to be looking for ways to mitigate their impact while still reducing the spread of the disease. I think many of those efforts will fail, but some will succeed and others will follow the ones that work.
I do not want government to aide the economy – businesses and individuals are driven to solve problems by the costs of the problems and the profits to be made from the solution.
If Government dumps money on this – both incentives die.
We do not actually know what the mortality rate for this is.
And in fact we do not actually know the mortality rate for the common cold either.
The mortality calculations are all over the place. Primarliy because we do not know how many people have been infected (which BTW is true of EVERY infectuous disease).
We make educated gueses based on the data we do have which has HUGE error bars.
I have seen mortality rate claims from Wuhan that range from about 1.4% through 3.8%
I have seen numbers from the rest of china that range from 0.8% to 3.4%.
The Cruise ship numbers are far lower than those from China.
South Korea is getting very low mortality. Depending on how the calculations are done I have seen numbers LOWER then those we purportedly have for the flu.
Italy is returning very high mortalities.
Corana absolutely has higher mortality for older people.
BUT SO DOES THE COMON COLD
Aparently there was an epidemiological study done recently using tens of thousands of people who died from respiratory distress. Influenza virus was detected in 50% and corona viruses in just under 20%
If you have checked out the data on Sine Flu – you will quickly learn it is NO BETTER than that for Covid19 so far (actually much worse) The reported numbers of people that died from Swine Flu ran from 180 to over 20,000 (in the US) and the number of infections run from 10M to just under 100m. Trump cites 17,000 deaths from H1N1, I think Biden claims it was a few hundred. BOTH have authoratative sources to back up their claims.
There is plenty of mortailty data on “the common cold” in elderly people that has claims of 4-8% mortatlity.
Dig deeper and in the end you find that EVERYTHING we have for the flu, the common cold is based on a very small amount of data and lots of computer modeling.
We are complaining right now about the poor quality of the data on Covid19 – but the Covid19 data is far BETTER than what we have for the common cold and the flu.
My “guts” tell me that it is a likely assumption that Covid19 is more deadly than the common cold. But in fact we do not have any solid emperical data that backs that up.
We are fixated on testing right now.
When was the last time you were tested for the cold or flu ?
If you go to the doctor with the approirate symptoms we ASSUME you have what your symptoms match.
We do not test people for H1N1 or rhinovirus’s or Corona viruses.
If people die – we rarely test them for specific viruses.
Further with most deaths – including Covid19, the actual cause of death is usually Pneumonia. Which could be an oportunitistic infection by another virus or an adverse reaction to the cold, the flu or Covid19.
The FACT is we just plain do not have the empiracle evidence to make any of the judgements we are making.
The mortality rate for the flu and the common cold for people over 70 IS approximately the same as that of Covid19. (to the extent we actually have good data)
If you are unaware of that pnumonia is the most common cause of death for the elderly.
I have posted alot about my father having vascular demensia in the last few years of his life.
He repeatedly nearly died from strokes. He also nearly died several times from blood loss.
But he was finally killed when the courts ordered him into a home against his will and he contracted pneumonia.
“Would you allow” … ?
NO!!
There are only two course of action open to government.
Stop the sucker, or get out of its way and let it run.
I absolutely do not support ANY of the economic actions that either the fed or republicans or democrats are doing.
On NET every single one of them is going to be more harmful than good.
There is LOTS of empiracl evidence that it is outside of the ability fo government to mitigate economic cycles.
Just dumping money into the economy does more harm than good.
If it were actually possible to correct adverse economic impacts through intervention that would require knowledge of the exact impacts that we do not have.
Mitch McConnell is talking of dumping 1000 on everyone.
Well everyone is not being hurt by this.
Some businesses are being hurt – entertainment, hospitality, and some are benefiting – online sales.
Some areas of employment are likely to be hurt – retail sales positions, and entertainment and hospitality jobs. At the same time Amazon is hiring 100K people.
I am not trying to say that the net will not be negaitive. What I am saying is that it is not possible for government to spend money in a way that it will help all those who are harmed without large spill over effects into people who people who were not harmed at all.
We have had some very good economic analysis done of the ARRA in 2009-2014.
Most of that analysis concludes that it had either no effect of a negative effect.
Absolutely we built lots of roads.
But road building does not employ lots of people, Further especially at the start ARRA harmed other areas of the economy by raising demand for civil engineers far above the supply – that STOPPED lots and lots of commecial construction.
The economy is an incredibly complex mechanism. It is fundimentally SELF REGULATING
By design. When some part is out of whack mostly small adjustments occur throughout the economy. People shift from one job to another – following opportunity.
As an example right now some people will decide to take a job with Amazon rather than continue as a waiter.
Regardless, you can not jump into the economy and dump a trillion dollars here or there like a sledge hammer and expect that will something.
I think most of us here are wise enough to grasp that socialism FAILS.
Well it fails because Government does not and can not have the knowledge necescary to run the economy.
Some economic shock DOES NOT CHANGE THAT.
If you actually beleive that Socialism does not work – then ALL government tinkering with the economy can not work for exactly the same reason. “the economic calculation problem” or in shorter form – the knowledge problem.
Why does a free market work but socialism does not ?
Because in a a free market decision making is distributed, and failures are small and result in rapid and automatic adjustment, while in socialism decisions are made at the top and failure is corrected slowly if at all – certainly not automatically.
The free market uses a sophisiticated computer – the collected intelligence of 8million people each operating as independent nodes in a gigantic neural network.
No super computer has ever been built (nor will be) with that kind of computation power.
There are 5billion exchanges made on the NYSE every day. The number of free exchanges globally per day is in the trillions.
And almost each and every one of those is unique, and each represents a decision made by a human at that moment.
There is no government no supercomputer than can supplant even part of that.
So NO i do not support any form of economic intervention by govenrment.
It will ALWAYS do more harm than good.
I would further note, this is radically different from a business cycle recession.
There is no fundimental problem inside the economy that is being corrected here.
The economic decline is being caused by the negative influences of Covid19.
The economy will recover RAPIDLY as those influences diminish.
More rapidly than in a business cycle recession recovery.
And to further, further note. Absent government intervention we will see all kinds of adjustments made entirely on their own.
People are changing their behavior, businesses will also change their behavior.
We are NOT shutting down – we are just changing.
I am not going to predict exactly how, but I am going to offer some possibilities – just so that you can get past the notion this is armegedon.
I expect that many retails stores will opt for longer hours – so that people can come in at 11pm or 3am to show when there are fewer people in the store.
I was just at costco and they had constructed a labyrinth outside the store to keep people from congregating. and they made a number of changes inside the store to flow, wider aisles, etc. to keep people from coming together.
My point is that people and businesses will find their own ways to deal with this.
And it is not inherently predictable exactly what they will do.
Resturaunts may place patrons every other table as an example.
Resturants may shift to much more takeout business.
but businesses will seek to avoid closing down if they can.
They will find new ways of doing business.
THAT is what we need to allow to happen.
I do not trust govenrment to get this right – they do not know what they are doing, and they are just throwing sledgehammers and hand grenades all over the place.
I do trust the markets to get this right.
I have several businesses of my own – and I am 61yrs old with asthma and reduced lung capacity – I am very focused on those mortality curves.
If my 20 year old kids get this – they will breeze through.
If they or someone else gives this to me and my wife I am not interested in a 1:20 chance that one of us does not make it.
Regardless, I am changing the way I do business in each of my businesses to figure out how to continue to do business while reducing my risks.
THAT is what will get us through this.
The foundation of prosperity, or standard of living is PRODUCTION.
Any action of government that is NOT associated with maintianing or increasing production is NOT changing the damage this is doing.
If it were possible to have a high standard of living solely by distributing money – then why should any of us work at all.
I have no sympathy for government subsidizing the unproductive.
I have slightly more sympathy for those whose productivity is temporarily impaired by forces outside their control such as Covid19.
But I have little beleif that government can effectively mitigate that and a strong expectation that people actually will resolve those problems themselves.
Any worker harmed by this is the employee of a business that is also harmed by this.
I am more inclinded than you to beleive that workers can easily migrate to other jobs.
Businesses can not so easily change directions.
At the same time the people who have the skills to run a successful business also have the skills to figure out how to adapt to changes like this.
subsidizing them will reduce the incentive for them to solve their problems.
subsidizng them is a BAD not a good idea.
I am sure you think I am some extremist on this.
But I would note, that there is pretty much no instance ever in recorded history of government economic intervention ever working.
And there is an extensive record of it failing.
Subsidies and stimulus programs appeal to politicians, they appeal to businesses, they appeal to ordinary people. They are the ultimate in emotional appeal.
And if they actually worked almost no one would oppose them.
But they do not.
That was a lot of words , Dave 😉 I prety much agree with all of them……BUT
My youngest son lives in NYC. He has been building a business, and up until now, it has been very successful. He’s got 3 partners, and they have started a coffee roasting company and opened up 4 coffee shops in Brooklyn. (Same kid that used to work for Bloomberg. By the way, where is Mike in all of this? No donations to help his “beloved city”)
The Virus Panic has shut them down. If this thing goes more than a month or so, their company is toast, and they have lost everything.
I think that the government should play a role in supporting small businesses that have been shut down by the government.
Congrats for your son the entrepeneur.
Sorry that he is trying to inovate in one of the most restricted markets in the world – only to be made worse by whatever NYC does regarding Covid19.
If NYC develops sane restrictions – he and his business should be able to figure out how to make things work.
But I do not want government propping up his business or mine.
Not to be mean, but if he and his partners fail – they will lose some money and some time.
But business failures happen all the time. It takes the typical entrepeneur 7 tries before they succeed.
If Government helps your son’s business out – guaranteed it will pour billions into other businesses too. Many of which will exist solely for the purpose of bilking the public of money.
To bail out your son, will with near certainty mean that the Hunter Biden’s and Devon Archer’s and all the others like that will get the lions share of the assistance.
To quote CCR – your Son “Ain’t no Senator’s Son” – any assistance government decides to do – will go to others better connected, and far less deserving.
And there is nothing that can be done about that.
Lord Acton’s dicta is immutable.
Power corrupts.
The ONLY way to constrain corruption is to constrain power.
Or to elect virtuous leaders.
( I know, I know, don’t fall on the floor laughing)
Dave this is a low even for you. Telling someone to go screw themselves if they are about ready to lose everything from a situation not controllable by themselves is one thing. I expect that from you.
But comparing her son to Hunter Biden is a new low even for you.
I am sure as hell glad that there are people with Libertarian views that are not as insane as you.
Good job!
“Dave this is a low even for you. Telling someone to go screw themselves if they are about ready to lose everything from a situation not controllable by themselves is one thing. I expect that from you.”
I did not tell him to go screw himself.
I commend what he has done.
But freedom is incompatible with guarantees.
In the real world people lose – sometimes big time all the time through no fault of their own.
I have lots of sympathy for that.
But priscillas son started a company.
If it fails – even through no fault of his own, he can do it again. And likely will.
And it will not take long before he is in the 1%.
“But comparing her son to Hunter Biden is a new low even for you.”
I specifically said that he does not WANT to be Hunter Biden.
I also specifically said that if we pass laws to subsidize him, it is the hunter biden’s not him who will benefit.
You are radically twisting what I am saying.
Oh, I didn’t think Dave was comparing my son to Hunter Biden. Good grief, that’s a guy who tried to use the coronavirus to get out of going to court to face a paternity suit.
The problem with the whole idea of not guaranteeing anything, is that everything’s got to be guaranteed now. Heck, Joe Biden guaranteed that he’d pick a woman veep. Not a specific woman, which is odd, since he must have one in mind. But, guaranteed. People want security, I guess.
I still think that, since it was the government’s call to shut down all restaurants and coffee shops (my son reports that the deli’s have more business than they can handle) the government has some responsibility to help, if that mandate causes a business to fail.
To make sure there is absolutely no confusion.
Priscilla’s son was not being compared to Hunter Biden.
What I WAS trying to say was that efforts by government to help Priscilla’s son will ultimately benefit those like Hunter Biden.
And just to be clear – this is NOT democrat specific.
Tucker Carlson just went after Sen. Burr for selling 1.6M in hospitality stock in january after being briefed on COVID-19.
I hope Burr has some explanation.
but this STINKS.
I am NOT a fan of anything Congress is currently doing in terms of stimulus.
I am not in favor of it whether it has republican support or not.
I am not in favor of it despite the fact that I will likely personally benefit.
This stimulus crap DOES NOT WORK. it does not work when Obama did it.
It will not work when Trump does it.
I have been opposed to Trump’s infrastructure plan from day one.
This is much worse.
My remarks about Hunter were to say that when Congress does something and claims it is going to help Priscilla’s son, we can Bet that it will be the Hunter Biden’s or the world that really benefit. It will probably also be the Trump family – I fully expect to here from Jay on this, and in this instance though I would not single them out from the Hunter Biden’s.
Absolutely The Trump’s as well as the Biden’s will benefit.
But prisicilla’s son ? Not so much.
Further even if those in government left and right could somehow avoid sticking their own hands into the cookie jar. THIS WILL NOT WORK.
What the economy needs right now is to be allowed to figure out how to continue to produce as much as possible through this.
I trust that if government stays out of the way – that producers from those making surgical masks through coffee shops will figure out new ways to do business to keep people safe.
I strongly suspect some of those new ways will become permanent.
I expect mistakes along the way. But ultimately I expect businesses will figure it out.
Thus far I see politicians screwing up left and right.
My governor just shut down damn near everything.
That is just plain stupid. Further there is a 15 page not all that clear list of what is essential, and what is not, that is ultimately going to prove a disasterous mess.
I fully expect local cops to be shutting down indian operated minimarts – despite the fact that they appear to be listed as essential.
Government will make mistakes too. But there is a big difference between government mistakes and private ones.
As an example retail stores should NOT be shortening hours, they should be lengthening them. It should be easier and easier for people to shop at odd hours.
Restrict the number of people in a store at one time, do not shorten the time the store is opened.
But businesses will work that out on their own over time.
But government action will squelch the process of dynamically trying to get this all right.
One of the many things I do, is that I am an architect.
One of the things architects produce is drawings and specifications for the construction of buildings.
A peice of advise I received early on – that is actually reflected in our tort and contract laws is:
Do NOT tell people (contractors) HOW to do something. Specify what you want – the outcome.
If you tell people HOW to do something – you are responsible.
If you tell that what they are supposed to accomplish and leave them free to figure out HOW they are responsible, further everything works better. If you tell someone HOW and you are wrong or even just less than perfect – they will do what you told them to do.
If you tell them what the result must be, and they make a poor choice regarding HOW, they can change that without consulting you until they get the right outcome.
The goal is NOT to shutdown business. That is some peoples idea of HOW to acheive the actual objective, not the objective itself.
WHAT we want is fewer people interacting – particularly fewer strangers.
My family is going to get together constantly through this. We eat together watch movies together. We may even go out together. Unless one of us gets this we are mostly same together. But we must all be very careful when we interact outside that close group.
We do NOT want people to stop going shopping or working.
We want them to keep their distance from those they do not know are safe.
I do not know HOW Priscilla’s son manages to keep his coffee shop open. But no one should tell him he can’t. But he should be looking to find ways to increase the distances between the people he is doing business with. HOW is his problem.
It’s getting scary here in L.A.
Yesterday my son-in-law volunteered (insisted actually) to do a grocery shopping run for us ‘seniors.’ But at opening-time he couldn’t get into Costco. Never mind parking: customers were lined up outside the parking lot, into the streets. It required three alternate stores for him to locate all the items on our to find eggs, fresh milk, and yogurt – available only in large-size containers.
Today we decided to plan ahead and order some basic supplies we’re running low on like sugar and all-purpose flour from Costco’s home delivery service. In the past Costco offered next day food delivery. Forget that: it’s a four-day delivery estimate now – if that is you can get a ‘delivery envelope’ slot: none were available this morning.
Let’s hope the virus doesn’t starts incapacitating the transportation delivery chains – truck drivers, loaders, mechanics.
It’s not the virus that’s incapacitating anything ~ it’s the panic over the virus.
And the panic has been and is still being stoked by the media, which has shown itself to be utterly irresponsible, and has made a bad situation worse.
Costco warehouses, like any other retail business, have to receive shipment and stock the shelves on a daily basis. When people are stockpiling months worth of food and supplies, even after they’ve been told that there is no reason to do so, the supply chain and restocking system that normally works just fine, is completely disrupted.
I happened to be at Costco yesterday, when they began putting out boxes of sanitizing wipes, literally right where I happened to be standing. I nearly got trampled by the people stampeding to get a box. I was able to grab one for myself, but, as soon as I did, I threw it in my cart, and got the hell out of that area. Seriously, you would have thought they were putting out boxes of $100 bills.
In any case, within 5 minutes, the mountain of boxes of those wipes was gone. Maybe less than 5 minutes. Under normal circumstances, they would have lasted at least a week. No store can keep up with that kind of shopping, and it probably isn’t scheduled to get replenishment for at least a few days, so everyone who stood in line today had no chance. I just lucked out.
I actually understand the run on sanitizing gel, wipes, isopropyl alcohol, etc. People want to be able to disinfect their environment and keep their hands clean.
But once you have enough of that stuff to last for a couple of months, maybe that’s enough? Most stores have been out of stock for weeks, even with purchase limits.
When it comes to toilet paper hoarding, I have to wonder if people aren’t being completely pathological about this….
The reason government gets involved with things that drive Dave nuts is because business and private individuals will not do what is appropriate. The logical thing to do is for the businesses to limit the amount of soap, cleaners, wipes, eggs, sugar, flour and anything that has a run on it. But many companies will not do that, so the long arm of government does, and they do a national directive, regardless of the need across the country.
Attached is a Nat Geo article that I am going to share on Facebook. Good article that may allow those that want to stay safe but cant get wipes might find helpful. Maybe it will help one friend.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/why-soap-preferable-bleach-fight-against-coronavirus/
There is no “logical thing” that businesses should do.
Absolutely every single decision – no matter who makes it must be made considering the LOCAL factors of the moment.
Shoudl a business ration hand sanitizer or soap, if a truckload is arriving tomorow ?
How can you tell the difference between the guy buying 10 bars he does not need or to speculate from the person buying soap for his family, his parents, his inlaws, his neighbor ?
Right now my family is consolidating purchases. We are making buying trips rarely and we are buying not for one or two of us but for the extended family, and we are buying enough so that we will not be back for 2-3 weeks rather than next saturday.
That should be precisely what you want. If everyone did that – we would have 1/4 as many people in the stores.
Regardless, the laws and regulations that you are advocating that purpotedly stores will not do on their own have been extensively studied
THEY MAKE THINGS WORSE.
This seems to be very very hard for you to understand, but Government can not possibly make fine grained decisions. And in fact we do not want government to.
We pretty much NEVER want government saying – you can buy X – but he can not.
But free markets even though not perfect are BY FAR best at dealing with scarcity. leveling out supply and demand.
If that were not so – socialism would work. It is really that simple.
Absent the total collapse of society – in which case government is non-functional anyway, free markets ALWAYS do better than government at resolving issues of scarcity.
It is quite literally exactly what they are best at.
In a working free market economy there are bread lines – briefly when a hurricane hits.
In a government planned economy there are bread lines ALWAYS.
One of the huge differences between the US and the rest of the world during WWII is that FDR figured out when he knew the war was coming that he could not continue his march towards a government regulated economy and successfully fight the war.
FDR pretty much inverted all the regulation he had done. He unleashed free markets.
Yes there was rationing of critical materials, but for the most part the government told the market what it needed and got out of the way of producing it.
The US had the weakest efforts to stigmatize war profiteering, and instead was celebrating the contributions of the captains of industry to the war effort.
This resulted in an entirely different post war period.
In the UK businesses and individuals had been relentlessly prosecuted during the war for profiteering. The result was british war productivity was an order of magnitude lower thna the US. And at the end of the war the british did not see their businesses as having contributed to victory. While in the US everyone came home and the entire country felt like it had all together contributed to winning the war. Businesses were hero’s not villians. Look at TV, etc from the late 40’s and 50’s there was a radically differnet view of business as a result of the war.
With respect to your article.
After massive amoutns of reading – most of the commonly offered advice and suggestions are LIKELY correct – the FACT is WE DO NOT KNOW.
It has been established that Corona Virus survives on surfaces – particularly hard ones for some time. It has NOT been etablished that this is how it is transmitted.
The more i learn the more I find out what we do not know.
We do not know the mortality rate for the common cold. Any number you have seen is a guess – usually based on modeling. with little in the way of empriacle data.
We do not know the mortality rate of the flu either.
We do not know the deaths per year of either the flu or the cold.
We do not know the number of people with the flu or cold each year.
Each of these is calculated using models that have as inputs lots of assumptions.
We can not compare Covid19 to the flu without knowing many of these things.
BTW we do not actually know them abotu Covid19.
There has been this political rant about testing.
We have never tested large portions of the population for cold or flu.
Doctors rarely test people for either the cold or flu.
They diagnose you based on symptoms. They do not check your blood or test your saliva.
Most of the data for Covid19 so far is crap – it is all over the place, we have inconsistant results from China, South Korea, Cruse Ships, Italy, …
And we probably know Covid19 better than we know the common cold.
Your article advises soap rather than bleach for disinfecting.
The article might be right. But the fact is we do not know.
Nor do we know whether covid19 is spread via surface touch.
We assume that – because we beleive that the flu and the cold are frequently passed that way. But in fact we DO NOT KNOW – not about covid19, not about the flu or the cold.
To be clear – I am not telling you not to take the experts advice. I am following alot of it myself. But lets quit pretending it was carved by god into tablets of stone.
And I think we need better understanding of alot of things that we should know and could know but do not. not just about Covid19, but about the common cold and flu.
And we should be a bit more careful about health experts telling us to turn the entire workings of society on its head for the goal of reducing the stress on the healthcare systems.
How many here are willing to trade a 100% chance of losing 50% of their wealth for a 10% reduction in the probability that a virus with a 1% chance of killing them and only a 30% chance they will get it ?
Priscilla there is actually decades of economic data on hoarders and “price gougers”.
Despite the rants of people and government the actual truth is that they provide a valuable service. They cause more good than harm.
If you engage in price speculation – like buying 17,000 bottles of hand sanitizer in the hopes of profits, the only way you profit, is if the supply chain is actually disrupted.
And if that is the case you provide a valuable service by delivering the good you stockpiled at a time when people need it more.
And this is actually how things have worked int he real world.
People speculating in food and oil and water, and …. have much of the time LOST, and others have benefited when they had to sell at a loss.
But even when they have proven right – they bought when supplies were abendant and sold when they were short – that is what you have to do to profit, and that smoothes the spikes and valleys in the demand curve.
Mercatus did a study of those speculating in gnerators and water during Katrina.
Though many of them got artrested, their goods confiscated by the police – and rarely reaching the people who needed them.
Those that avoided law enforcement delivered gas, water, generators and other needed supplies FASTER than all the other means.
In fact Mercatus instutites study of Katrina found the governments early response to be hugely negative. Not only was government stoping speculators from delivering generators, water gasoline to areas with huge shortages, but they were equally effective at thwarting Walmart Home Depot, Exxon, … from getting needed supplies in.
Nearly every national chain and many many local stores have in place way ahead of time disaster plans. Denny’s as an example has a disaster plan book for each Denny’s store for what to do in most every eventuality. How to keep the store open how to keep feeding people. how to do so if they lose electric – all eventualities.
In more dire circumstances they are told to feed people for free. They are also told to ration out the food reasonably – not to make 100 sandwitches and let one person buy them all.
Speculators – though they do provide valuable services – these are the people who get the Denney’s the generators, the bread the water, etc that they need to stay open and care for their community. but established businesses rarely speculate in disasters.
They are part of their communities, and they know that people will remember them after the disaster is over.
If Walmart gouged customers during a crisis – they would profit for a month and no one would buy from them in that community again.
Speculators are NOT people who normally sell to a community.
They are people who are not normally in business, they are outsiders – atleast tot he business community – who takes the risk to find and buy goods they may not be able to sell,
who are looking for a quick profit and not customer loyalty.
But they still meet an important need.
The fact is that most everything we are told is wrong with free markets – is a feature not a fault.
The place free markets fail is when they are ensnared by government.
No subsidies, no regulations. Let those in the free market sink or swim on their own.
It is when business can leverage the power of government that things go south.
In my communtities the sanitizer, wipe, paper towel, milk, … hoarders hit the stores.
And the stores are now nearly all restocked.
The same will happen even in big cities by the demand and supply logistics will take longer.
I do not care if one person buys out all the toilet paper in costco.
In a few days they will have more.
For Ron’s benefit – toilet paper is made in the US and I have no doubt that even if the entire country gets the runs the markets will deliver us an unending supply of toilet paper.
I would actually look at this crisis as proof that markets work.
There will be occasional shortages – briefly, there will be problems – and the markets will solve them.
The economy is not going to be in trouble because demand for toilet paper or hand sanitizer reaches unmeetable levels. It is going to tank because peoples demands will DROP,
Because we eat out less, go to the movies and theater less, drive less, ….
Between the Saudi/Russian oil war and an expected drop in demand, there are predictions of sub $1 gasoline.
Jay, things are working much better in my community, and I think you are going to see that accross the country.
As I noted in a differnet post – this is a BLUE Virus, it is going to do the most harm in places where people are most congregated – that would be huge democratic cities.
Right now NYC has 1/3 of the cases in the nation, Not too long ago they had none.
3-4 cities have 2/3 of all cases.
This will spread far faster in the cities.
The impact on “Trump Country” may be minimal – if at all.
At the same time – I would not despair in LA. It will take time but ultimately these things will get worked out.
You say you can not get things at costco. How far do you have to drive to get somewhere you can ?
I am fortunate – outside of a brief rush which I completely avoided local stores are no longer crowded and they are restocked – even hand sanitizer is available.
I expect that there will be numerous adjustments. My wife and I will NOT go out much.
When we do we will have thought about what we are doing, we will be looking to go to stores when they are not crowded.
But aside from skipping dinners at resturaunts and nights at the theater, this will have minimal effect on us.
You local cost co will solve its problems.
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest. We address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities, but of their advantages”
― Adam Smith
ALWAYS remember that – left alone – Costco will save you. Not because they give a shit about you personally, but because their self interest is served by meeting your needs.
I do not want government intervention in the economy – because businesses can figure this out on their own.
Not bad in Winston Salem N.C. either. Sams and Cost Co busier, somewhat like Christmas. Might run out of some things by end of day, but restocked next morning. More lines getting sub $1.75 a gallon gas than in store.
Dang, gas this cheap and I am not driving!
There will be a variety of disruptions – including disruptiuons to supply – especially in population concentrations. There will be numerous false starts and mistakes.
I see lots of businesses in my area making stupid choices that they think will make things better, but likely will make them worse.
But to the extent we have freedom – we will work things out.
Freedom does not mean we get things right, not everytime, not at first,
But it means that we go through continuous refinement and that mostly leads to improvement.
I do not expect long term disruption of supply chains. So long as government takes a light hand, things will work themselves out.
I do not know precisely how. I do not need to.
This is another place we disagree.
You keep demanding one size fits all solutions to be imposed by force to fix everything.
You tell me we can not do nothing.
I do not know that is true,
But I do know we will not do nothing.
I am not arguing that we should do nothing.
I am arguing that GOVERNMENT should do nothing.
That it should leave the rest of us as free as possible to try MANY things.
When we do something by FORCE – we are obligated to KNOW it will work.
When in a free market will seek solutions there is no prohibition on experimentation.
On trial and error.
I have raised this repeatedly regarding vaccines for Covid19.
If Government would get rid of all regulations regarding Vaccines,
I have ZERO doubt that in the next month or two at the most there would be some vaccine developed that had sufficient demonstrable safety and effacacy that I would be prepared to get it. That is TWO months max, not 18.
I do not expect that vaccine would be perfect.
It might like the Swine Flu vaccine have a 0.001% chance of paralysis.
And i would have to decide if that was a risk I was willing to take – looking at the risk of getting Covid19 and of being harmed or killed if I do.
Freedom would result in trial and error, and it would reach answers quickly, often multiple different answers.
I would as an example with near certainty pay for a biohacked vaccine that had a 50% chance of being effective and a near zero chance of harm especially if it was available in 6weeks.
But if government got out of this – that would not be the only choice I had.
Ron, can’t tell you how much I wish that we were already in NC. The metro area is becoming ground zero for Virus Panic, and it is very disheartening to see people behaving like it’s the end of times. (Apparently, a shortage of toilet paper will indicate the end of times)
I’m not minimizing the fear and concern. But that fear is NOT backed up by real data. This whole thing is reminding me of the Climate Change Panic, that is also based on models, not hard evidence.
So far, in the entire country, something like 140 people have died of the virus, almost all of them being in their 70’s or older, with preexisting health conditions. A bit more than the number of people killed in auto accidents every. single. day.
But we don’t shut down driving because of that, or institute a national 25 mph limit ~ which would absolutely save lives.
Why have we not demanded that the country shut down the entire economy until we save lives lost in motor vehicle crashes that are preventable, with government regulation?
This reminds me alot of the climate change nonsense too.
Though honestly this is NOT as bad.
We actually can model Viruses – and do relatively successfully.
In fact the ONLY significant information we have on Flu deaths, cold deaths etc. comes from models. As little as we seem to know about Covid19 we actually know LESS about the common cold and each years seasonal flu. The actual mortality rates, number of deaths spread rates, and total number of cases of colds and flu’s each year are all from models.
We have almost no testing.
We are beating the crap out of Trump and the CDC over testing – yet when were you EVER tested for the cold ? Flu ?
When you went to the doctor and they decided that you had the flu – did they test you ? No ?
Your diagnosis was based on your symptoms.
So in fact we have no empiracle data on colds or the flu each year.
That said it does not appear that our models of those are that bad.
But as we get people modeling Covid19 we should remember that all the relevant parameters of Covid19 are at best educated guesses today.
So the models are all based on nested educated guesses.
I think that the panic-mongering comes when we emphasize the worst case scenario models, and downplay all the rest, including those that show a much more optimistic outcome. ( I actually was tested for the flu, because my doc won’t prescribe Tamiflu without a test).
Just got a message from a friend in Fresno CA. They are going total nuts out there. He has to go someplace tomorrow at 6:00a.m. to get distilled water for his C-pap. Otherwise its sold out.
This should have negligible impact on supply chains and all non-public transportation.
Look at what is almost the worst case – lets assume that a 40yr old long haul truck driver gets this.
What stops him from continuing to do his job ? He would need to avoid places people congregate – he is already self-quarantined in his truck.
That is the extreme case. More likely – Truckers will mostly not be exposed, and those that are can stay home for two weeks. ‘
I would note that of those who get this – after two weeks they are past it and likely immune in the future.
While we are engaged in an effort that in theory might protect much of society, the objective is NOT to protect absolutely everyone – we do not do that with the flu or colds.
It is to protect those with the highest risk – the old and those with health risks.
There is an argument being made that we should not shut down schools.
That the mortality rate among the young is extremely low, while it is near certain that this will spready like wildfire through schools and to the families of students – it is young adults that typically have school aged children – not 60 year olds.
If a family gets this – DO NOT VISIT GRANDPA, until you are healthy.
And every family that gets this builds the “herd immunity”
Note: I can no longer access this particular article on my mobile iPad; have to use my old desktop. No problem on other less-congested articles. Ron, you having problems now too?
And Rick – if you’re there – a short new screed from you would let me monitor the comments in comfort, and not have to fire up this old Windows monstrosity.
Jay, I can still access but it is getting slower than molasses.Started about a week ago when all the videos hit. I am using my desktop and it buffers fro a minute or so. On a tablet, forget trying to post anything, Anytime you access the comments from WordPress or make a comment, it reloads everything. I read everything on email as I can’t keep up with the way stuff is ordered in WordPress.
The Eugenics discussion has few comments. We can move over to that one and use up all that space(^v^).
.
I only use my ipad to post when traveling.
Frankly I do not like that because without a keyboard typing on the ipad is tedious.
It is sufficiently bad I have not noticed that the site is slow.
I rarely have the problems that the rest of you are having.
I have the “email me on new posts” box checked and I get emails everytime someone posts.
I hit the reply button in the email – if I want to respond and it fairly quickly takes me to a reply box in my browser.
The only time I struggle with the performance of the site – is when I want to go back and look at old posts.
Just to be clear – I am just indicating what is working for me.
Each of us can choose as we please.
But mostly I do not have problems with that approach.
Like Dave, I have not yet experienced any problems, but I’m ready to move whenever everyone else is.
I would vote for rick to just bring up a new placehold post to addres the problem with ipads.
Dave, your post 12:49
You are living mentally in a perfect society. Yes, Priscilla’s son should be able to determine how to design his businesses to distance customers, but look at Florida with all the idiots partying. They will come in contact with someone, bring it home, spread it around, all because they think they know better than experts.
Your world without egotistical huts does not exist.
“You are living mentally in a perfect society.”
Quite the opposite. The libertarian approach works in the real world with humans behaving as they do. It does not lead to perfection, it does not presume perfection,
It leads to the greatest possible imporvement.
It also works proportionate to the extent it is implimented.
If you are not prepared to go full limited government libertarian, or if you lose the political fight – things will still work out – just not as well as they would had we moved further towards freedom.
“Yes, Priscilla’s son should be able to determine how to design his businesses to distance customers, but look at Florida with all the idiots partying. They will come in contact with someone, bring it home, spread it around, all because they think they know better than experts.”
No mostly they do not care. They are young and concurrently think they are etenral and will die tomorow anyway. I do still remember being that age. And if I did not I have two kids in their early 20’s – great kids – certainly more sane than those partying in Florida.
“Your world without egotistical huts does not exist.”
Nope, my ideology works. It works best implimented fully, but it still works when implimented partially.
While it rejects socialism and all its empty promises. It can coexist with any other ism,
Greater freedom means more prosperity. Period.
I would also note regarding much of what is being done:
Much of the world has not tried anything like this in over 300 years – if ever.
The last time anything like this occured we were dealing with “the plaugue” – which had roughly the fatality rate of ebola and was easily spread.
There are all kinds of claims that XXX failed.
There are only 2 clear failures todate.
China had the opportunity to contain and kill this when there were only a few cases, and it failed.
That is a failure of leadership in the chinese government – probably at mid levels, near Wuhan.
The next is that the governments of the world failed to stop this at their borders, or barely within – again something that had they acted quickly enough and forcefully enough was in their power.
Everything beyond those two failures puts us in uncharted territory.
China, South Korea, and Japan MAY have contained this.
Each has used completely different strategies.
But they have all been agressive.
At the same time there is no certainty they have succeeded.
Each may have merely stallled it briefly.
Regardless, the expereince of those countries shows that there is no one right solution.
Japan did much as the US did – except more effectively.
They restricted travel, and they identified those potentially infected who entered the country isolated them, tracked those who got in before the restrictions and tracked their contacts relentlessly.
Japan has used testing in much the same way as the US – to test those who there was good reason to beleive were exposed. They have NOT done broad testing.
South Korea tested the crap out of everyone.
China imposed draconian lockdowns on everything.
Part of the point is there is NOT a known answer.
The US and much of the world is engaged in this mitigation strategy – the one with the viral internet graphic attempting to reduce the peak and spread things out to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system
That is what we have chose to try. There is not BTW some strong evidence that approach is a good idea, or will even work. In fact it is arguable that it may actually result in a worse outcome. Slowly the virus without beating it could mean more total infections not less, and it definitely means more economic damage. It could mean more deaths not less.
The objective is to not overwhelm the healthcare system.
But the healthcare system is something we value, it is NOT the ONLY thing we value.
We are treating this like “war” – because that is something government is actually good at.
But War reprioritizes all the countries resources on the war effort. Everything else is secondary. That is only legitimate when facing an existential threat. Covid19 is NOT an existential threat. It is potentially an extremely serious one that will kill many people.
Further, there is no reason to beleive this approach will “win” – it will reduce the load on the healthcare system – but it could still easily be high enough to overwhelm it.
And if that is the case prolonging this could result in higher not lower deaths.
Put simply we do not know what the hell we are doing.
It is impossible to claim that Trump or anyone else failed, at something that has never been done before and that we do not actually know that what we are attempting will or even can work.
We are doing what governments do with problems – we are using force, blantly with little nuance or finesses.
To be clear – I am not saying we should not do what we are doing.
I am saying it might work, it might not, it might make things worse.
But we can not throw blame arround when we do not know what the answer actually is.
You attacked the kids partying in Florida.
There is an actual argument that is NOT an unwise choice.
There is an excellent argument we should send kids back to school
That we should expect they will be infected there.
That instead of isolating everyone from everyone else. We should focus on quarantining the vulnerable. It is a much smaller and more possible task to protect those who have pre-existing conditions, who are older. Further these people are MOSTLY not working. They MOSTLY do not have school age kids.
That if we allow this to run through children, young adults and the parents fo school age kids, and if we focus our efforts on protecting those who are most vulnerable, that we will get through this faster, and we will very shortly develop “herd immunity” that will protect everyone.
For most viral diseases, getting the disease is effectively the same as getting vaccinated.
You become immune – atleast for 12-18 months, possibily for decades.
Again i am not proposing this either.
I am just pointing out that we do not know the answers. There is no known best way to deal with this.
I have asked a couple of times – what level of risk would you be willing to take to be vaccinated NOW – rather than more safely 12 months from now ?
But the same holds for getting this.
If it was possible to deliberately catch this, while at the same time radically reducing the mortality, and be done with it completely in two weeks. To choose to be seek for a week and isolated for a week more and then to not have to worry about this, would you chose to do so ?
Some people would. For young people that is not inherenly a bad choice – espeically if they pose little risk to anyone except other young people.
We are constantly assuming that the top down plan that our “leaders” have concocted is what is best.
We do not know that.
You keep talking about “experts”.
What do those know that you and i do not ?
Do they know the actual spread rate R0 of the disease ? I see widely varrying guestimates in a range that is more than an order of magnitude wide.
Do they know where this is seasonal – whether it will weaken with rising tempertures, humidity, or more sunlight ?
Do they know the actual fatality rate – within an order of magnitude ?
Do they know EXACTLY how this is spread ?
Does it speach via surface touch or not, and if so how long is a surface contageous ?
i am not looking to piss over the “experts” they are doing their best.
But the fact is THEY DO NOT KNOW much if anything more than the rest of us.
Just to clarify the reasons why my son’s coffee shops are closed. All 4 are located in what are normally busy, high traffic areas. One is in the Hilton Hotel, right next to the Barclay Center, where the NY Knicks play. Since the NBA season is suspended, the Barclay Center is closed and now the Hilton is also closed, due to no tourists, conferences or gatherings of any sort.
Two more are in, or right next to, office buildings that are currently deserted, due to no one working. They could keep the shops open, but they’re not selling enough coffee/food to pay the overhead.
The last one is next to a theater. NYC has mandated that restaurants, theaters, gyms, coffee shos and bars shut down.
They are permitted to do “take out,” and they tried, but business was as good as zero. I mean, coffee shops are mostly take out, anyway. They were trying to come up with some alternatives, but, now, as of this Monday, NYC goes on complete lockdown, except for groceries, pharmacies and medical facilities.
So, they are essentially SOL. I think that there is a role for the government to play in helping them weather this shutdown.
We have reports of four different senators purpotedly engaged in Covi19 insider trading.
Why do you think that anything congress does to help your son, is not really going to end up helping the political classes and their hangers on ?
If it were possible for government to mitigate the economic harm through spending – socialism would actually work.
It does not.
I have sympathy for your son. But if he benefits at all from anything government does, it will be bread crumbs compared to the political class.
Yep, one of them is mine. Before hanging the individual, I am waiting for a review of his transactions since they occurred right at the time the market hit 29,000. if he can not prove that he had previously programmed his account to sell stocks once that level was achieved or a level was achieved by the stock itself, or he had written instructions for a stock broker to make those transactions based on predefined criteria, i want his ass expelled from congress, GOP or not. N.C. requires the governor to replace a vacant position with a member of the elected officials party, so Cooper could not appoint a Democrat. And in doing so, I think anyone appointed would have to meet the Republicans approval who have state control or anyone appointed without approval would not agree to the appointment. That is going to be a big mountain to climb because the relationship of our GOP leaders with the democrat governor rivals Pelosi/Trump. We are still operating on a 2 year old budget because neither side will budge.
I have heard most of the excuses already. And in most cases I think I beleive them.
But I could be wrong. It does not matter, it stinks to high heaven.
And even if these guys are not covering their ass with stocks, they are finding other ways to profit for themselves and their cronies.
Further several of these claim their money is in blind trusts.
People with multi-million dollar trust funds have Trust fund managers who are pretty capable of making good bets on the effects of Covid19 – even without secret briefings.
The insider trading claim is actually pretty stupid.
Who here is not banging their head for not telling their 401K their stock broker, wherever their money is invested to move out of hospitalities and into the things that will do well in this ?
None of us could forsee – not can we even now, what will happen. But pretty much everyone can see what the likely winners and losers would be, and we could see that back in January.
Priscilla, i also think there is a role for government in this situation. But I think it is for government at the federal level to provide the emergency funds and let the local small business associations distribute the funds based on locally approved formulas developed with input from the small business community. It may be that NYC needs $10B for small business, but Wilmington NC only needs $10M. That is what the SBA needs to work out using some formula.
As for larger business, if the business lost $10 million from fixed costs and their employees lost $40 million in salaries, then any funds that company gets should be distributed 80% to the employees and 20% to the company. I do not want one dollar of any funds going to any CEO or any stockholder. These funds should be used to cover fixed costs that requires cash (not depreciation) and employee salaries so local unemployment is not burdened.
And I agree completely with Mark Cuban, Mavericks owner.
https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/mavs-owner-mark-cubans-dear-u-s-government-letter-for-covid-19-times
Dave, so I can read your thinking on this because you will be 100% against it, can you limit your response to 500 words. My attention span is limited and I never finish one of your comments.
Ron,
A very minor variation on this was one of the biggest factors in making the recession in 1929 into the great depression.
Of course I am opposed to this.
But it does not matter. You want to blame me for telling you that stupid ideas will not work.
We actually know a great deal about recessions and depressions and what to do about them,
What works and what does not. But the right actions – do not appeal to politicians. They do not empower government, and they do not win votes.
So we will do the wrong things.
The feed just flooded the economy with 1.5T – did it do anything ?
The federal government is preparing to dump $1T into the economy.
What are the odds that helps ? I do not need to explain these things to you.
Whether it is the 4 senators accused of insider trading, or Hunter Biden/devon Archer or ….
Do you really think that no matter what is said most of this will go where it might be needed, rather than where political power can best direct it ?
Further – why do you think money will help at all ?
Standard of living is the production of value.
It is irrelevant how much money is in the economy if little or nothing is being produced.
The only thing government dumping massive amounts of money into the economy does – even if we were miraculously fortunate enough for it to flow to the “right” places – whatever “right” means, is erode the value of money.
Money is a claim against what is produced. If less is produced – then the value of money must decline.
The role of government – to the extent their is one, is to use force in the most beneficial way to end this quickly.
From the assorted data and models and what have you I have seen – no one knows what the answer to that is.
I am personally hopeful that China, Japan, and South Korea – each in their different way have contained this. That offers a tremendous amount of hope for all of us.
But alot of experts are saying that what we see in China, South Korea and Japan is a Chimera, and the will explode again soon.
I hope not, if they do we are all F’d.
Recent modeling done at Cambridge in England seems to indicate that pretty much every measure we have tried will likely do little more than drag this out longer. It might have no effect on the number of deaths or the number infected, just the length of time from start to finish, and therefore the economic destruction. Some models show the measures being taken actually making things worse.
Are these things true ? probably not, but the same is true of most everything that we hear.
We are running into spring – colds and flu’s tend to diminish in the spring. There are studies of Covid19 that say it behaves just like colds and the flu and that higher moisture, higher temperatures, and more sunlight diminish its spread.
And there are other experts that say that is crap.
I am increasingly hard pressed to fault government’s handling of Covid19 – because we do not know what the answers are. In a couple of years – we may be able to sit back and it will be clear what was done right and what was done wrong. But it is not now.
But there are things I do know – and those are the economics.
If we close down the economy for this – we do not get those losses back EVER.
What we do not produce – will not exist. It is created wealth that just did not happen.
We will be poorer. And if we are poorer, are health is worse, our lives are worthy less and lower quality, and more of us die – from all kinds of things.
We may not know how to fight Covid19 – but we do know how to deal with economic disruption. And in that were are falling all over ourselves to do the wrong things.
If we pay every man woman and child $1000/month and or we pay Priscilla’s son’s for his losses, how does that change the amount of food that is available ?
We are shutting down large portions of the economy. Whatever those portions did – will not be done. And if you honestly beleive they were not important – why did we have them anyway ?
More money will not help the economy. If it is not produced, it can not be consumed.
The federal government can give each of us a million dollars tomorow, that will not change getting through this.
Fro those following these things. several british attempts to model this thus far suggest – NOTHING WORKS.
The healthcare system will be overwhelmed no matter what, the social distancing and shutdowns, will spread this out, but they will not reduce the overall infections or deaths, and that the moment those constraints are relaxed that this spikes to the small levels it would have reached had we done nothing.
The point of spreading out (flattening) the curve is to keep the load on hospitals from an instant increase of proportions that would completely overwhelm the system and make treatment impossible due to lack of beds, staff, and equipment. My daughter is a radiographer in a Vermont hospital. They are absolutely lacking in sufficient supplies of the most basic items to protect them, of course masks etc. to deal with an explosion in the seriously ill population. They are also quite understaffed. My daughter assumes she will get the virus and that she will wind up working multiple shifts to cover other workers when they will fall ill. Right now is the calm before the storm. Flattening the curve at least gives some possible chance of adequate levels of people and medical items. That is the point of social distancing, not to prevent the disease but to spread its impact out.
Her husband is the man who is planning and overseeing the Vermont National Guard response, that is, the planning and logistics of setting up field hospitals. But, Who will staff them? What level of essential medical gear will they have?
You had better believe they hope that the curve can be flattened. Otherwise my daughter will be flattened and all those in her profession.
In Russia, they are pretending that there is only a very small number of cases. Head in the sand, lies, propaganda the usual putin KGB training approach. All those people flooding the hospitals have the flu or pneumonia. The Russians will likely not flatten the curve. That will be very ugly. We have loved ones there, I can only pray they make it through. Denial and inaction are not the answer to this.
There is really no answer to an issue like this, There is no way anyone can plan and stock the amount of supplies needed short of the federal government. much like they stock oil reserves. Just flattening the curve a little can help alot.
Lets just hope those with a high probability of hospitalization if they get this are heeding the warnings and are staying home. I hate it, but I am afraid to even go to the store and we less than 10 cases in our county. Probably more after 6 of our idiot city council members attended a meeting in D.C. last week and someone came down with it that attended. Now all 6 are self isolating but could get sick.
And the same thing happened to 6 members from and adjoining city, attended the same damn meeting. And people voted for imbeciles like that.
Roby, did you see my comment about moving comments…
There is no need to plan and stock supplies.
I know there are still a few places that have disruptions. But stores in my area were raided, and have all been restocked.
I will guarantee that so long as the stores are allowed to remain open and the people who produce the goods in the stores are allowed to remain open that there will only be minor supply disruptions With goods like toilet paper and wipes and hand sanitizer and food, it takes the economy days or a week to adjust to rapid fluctuations in supply and demand.
More complex products like dishwashers and stove and cars take much longer, but I am not aware of issues there. Most medical supplies fall in the middle and though there will be shortages until the supply chains ramp up, those demands will eventually be met.
My almost son-in-law works in cardboard – they are booming – because all the commodities we are short of are shipped in cardboard boxes. His company will likely be hiring.
Amazon is hiring, I would bet medical supply companies are hiring.
This will not come close to covering the job loses, but stocks of critical supplies are not the big deal.
Robby,
I know what the point is.
And pretty much no one anywhere thinks that is going to happen.
The healthcare system si going to be overwhelmed. In many places it already is.
Once that happens people die who would not have otherwise.
It does not matter if 1000 people who would not have died otherwise die each day for 10 days, or if 100 people die each day for 100 days.
The only way the spread this out model works is if the healthcare system is not overwhehlmed. And pretty much every model I am aware of is now indicating that will happen.
Of course there are still naysayers – who still beleive this will fizzle.
And you can deride them or the doomsayers all you want. The fact is NO ONE KNOWS.
i think that i personally have a pretty good idea which of the conflicting data to beleive and which to not. But I could be entirely wrong, or mostly right.
What i will not be is completely right.
Almost no one will.
It is also entirely possible that what we are doing WILL prevent the healhcare system from failing and will save lives at great cost elsewhere – including in lives dying or wasted in other ways.
You do not know, I do not know, the experts do not know.
At this moment you should have an excellent grasp of the limitations of “experts”
Yet, you are clinging desparately to the hope that what SOME experts are proposing and what our leaders are doing will work.
We do not know. We have not tried anything like this in 400 years and never against a disease like this.
I am not name calling here, I am not calling people stupid, I do not doubt that outside of congress most of those in power beleive they are doing the right thing.
I am not questioning their intentions.
But the fact which should be self evident to all of us is THEY DO NOT REALLY KNOW ANY BETTER THAN THE REST IF US.
So please do not tell me what the “point” is.
Tell me that you have something more than just hope that you are going to actually save lives – lots of them in return for the incredibly high price you are forcing us all to pay ?
And we both know the answer – you might be right. But we do not know.
The experts do not know. This is a guess. And experiment.
And not one with very good odds.
I actually HOPE it turns out well.
Or that one of the other low probability factors works out and this dies naturally shortly.
But no one knows.
.
You provide lots of annecdotal evidence that the healthcare system has already become far less functional under the strain. And tell me I am missing the point that the objective is to keep the healthcare system from failing.
Just to be clear – I am not making specific predictions.
i do as an example think it is near certain that MOST supply problems will solve themselves in short order – short term delay of this virus will allow the supply chain to catchup and get ahead.
But there is one thing in short supply that can not be remedied. That is healthcare workers.
Those people in the healthcare industry ARE GOING TO GET THIS, We are going to be short staffed as we lose doctors and nurses, or we are going to have sick doctors and nurses working at reduced effectiveness. The only way that gets avoided is if something causes this to fizzle shortly.
If your daughter is a nurse – kudos to her. But the odds of her not getting this are damn near zero.
You talk about logistics and the national guard. I have zero doubt that if we can forestall this a bit we will have masks and myriads of physical resources.
But there exists only so many doctors and nurses in the entire country. That is not a resource that will rapidly scale up.
The chinese built hospitals in a few days. They also had a country of 1.6B to draw human resources from and only a population of about 30M that they were dealing with as infected.
Hopefully, or China will re-explode soon.
Materials are a very short term logistical problem. Human resources are not a solveable one.
If this goes even close to projections – our healthcare system gets overwhelmed.
What we are trying to do is thread a needle.
If as some claim this is not as serious as painted (which is with near certainty is true since we are being told we face armegedon), we are destroying the economy for nothing.
Conversely if this is as bad as most models predict – we are also destroying the economy for nothing.
Our leaders are taking a gigantic gamble that this will be so bad that we have to act precipitously and not quite so bad that our actions will not matter.
That is actually a very narrow range.
Robby,
I do not know what is actually going on in Russia. Nor do I even know that it matters,
As I have pointed out, it is strongly arguable that the best response is to stop all the involuntary measures, to shift to voluntary measures and protecting the most vulnerable and just ride this out. It MAY overpower the healthcare system, but it will does so quickly and then it will pass. It is entirely possibel that the number of deaths will be indistinguishable.
I would further note that not only don’t we know what is going on in Russia, but we do not know what is going on in China, or South Korea, or Iran or the US, or ….
I do not think the US is actually doing widespread testing – even now.
Once it got into the general population testing is an almost ineffective tool.
Japan according to published numbers has stopped this WITHOUT doing any more testing than was done by the US.
But there are experts saying that Japan has lots of undetected cases and we will see an explosion.
There are all kinds of factors in Japan.
They have an overall very healthy population.
They also have the oldest population in the world.
They have the highest population density in the world.
The weather is very near perfect for the spread of this in Japan.
The japanese have the most hygene conscious population in the world.
They have a culture with a very high social responsibility factor.
You could be beaten to death in japan if you went out in public without a mask and sneezed.
Finally Japan is seeing a pronounced drop in Flu and Colds which strongly suggests that they HAVE actually contained Covid19.
And that BTW is a very very very big deal. They have done so through far less draconian measures than either korea or china. They have also done so in very very dense populations were “social distancing” has limits. I have RECENTLY ridden Japanese subways. If you get Covid19 by being within 2M of someone with it for 10min as is claimed – the japanese would have millions of cases by now.
I watched mean turn their backs to a japanese subway and shove – getting another dozen people into an already crowded subway car.
My point is that the one this that we KNOW is that our experts are wrong.
We just do not know exactly what they are wrong about.
“Denial and inaction are not the answer to this.”
Robby,
I hope that is actually correct, but the most recent Cambridge models actually say denial and inaction – or more accurately limited voluntary action may well be the best answer to this.
How hard is it for you to grasp with myriads of contradictory information coming from all kinds of experts – WE DO NOT KNOW.
We have direct news on the economic situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Israel. My wife’s son has lost his work, like many in Israel, he was in the technical side of sound and lights for giant concerts of international stars in Israel and such. That job no longer exists there today. He is home enjoying his wife (also unemployed now) and their daughter. My wife’s niece in Ukraine worked at an airport, she is now home, like many. No income. We will likely send some assistance to her. She cannot believe the stories my wife tells her about the US government providing assistance, it is beyond her belief. My wife’s niece in Moscow is working two jobs in the land of official denial. Her daughter was studying to be a doctor, but she took some time off recently. That may have been a good thing for her.
Two of my kids lost their work in Boston. The bailout, full-on Keynes with nearly full GOP support of the Keynes approach, would be of some help to them. My wife was also just laid off. Everyone has applied for unemployment, don’t know how soon it will arrive. Fortunately I have been working at home on my translations for more than a decade, my income should be safe unless the world truly falls apart.
My father and his wife have been isolated in their apartment for more than a week in a very nice assisted living facility in Montana. The are bored but healthy. At their age that is good. My mom and her husband are staying home in NM, a younger friend shops for them. Also good.
I cannot even imagine what the unemployment rate will be in a month, likely something historic. I am all for the Keynes approach here. That puts me in the company of the POTUS and both parties in congress. As Lindsey Graham said today, a trillion is not even going to begin to deal with the level of economic shutdown we are moving towards.
I’m 100% with you on this one, Roby.
Lets pray that some of the economist that predict a huge V in the second and into the third quarter pans out and we are pulling out of this late summer. This was not a financial collapse or anything systemic in the economy at all. If we are not pulling out in the fourth quarter, then we can see what Biden, Shumer and Pelosi can do to bring the economy back.
I figured Biden would get elected, but never dreamed it happening like this.
There is no need to predict.
There is no structural failure in the economy.
As soon as we are allowed to go back to work and not affraid to go back to work the economy will explode.
What will NOT happen – is we will never get back the wealth we did not produce during the downturn.
I would hope it would be obvious to everyone that the longer we choke the economy, the more we lose economically – and that even will include peoples lives, and the less favorable the tradeoff will look.
I suspect that everything else about the next election will hinge on Covid19.
That is why our politicians are falling all overthemselves right now.
Many predict this could be Trump’s black swan – and it could.
If the economy is in the tank, if millions have died and more deaths seem likely, if we are still locked in our homes in november – Trump is obliterated.
Conversely any scenario where things look bright in November – no matter how dark they are now, and Trump wins.
Democrats wasted alot of time trying to paint Trump as incompetent at the start.
That was wasted political effort – it will not matter in November.
What will matter is how things procede.
If the US goes through worse than Europe – Trump is toast.
If The US handles this overall better than europe – which appears to be the case – Trump wins big.
The standard of living in Russia is less than half the US.
Russia does nto have the resources to do what the US is doing.
Most of the world did not have the resources to do what the US is doing even 50 years ago.
Whether it will work is a completely independent question.
Robby.
Just as at the time of the financial crisis – I pray right now that I am wrong.
But the fact is Keynesian stimulus has NEVER worked.
BTW Hoover actually tried it before Keynes ever wrote the general theory – and it did not work. FDR expanded it. The US engaged in the most keynesian stimulus – before Kenyes proposed stimulus, of any nation during the great depression, and the US had the longest and deepest recession in the world.
Repeated keynesian stimulus in the 60’s and 60’s resulted in stagflation.
The ARRA according to every economic study I have read has proved a failure.
I really really hope what Republicans and democrats are falling all over themselves to do works.
But hope does not overpower facts, logic, reason.
The only good news about this is that as this did not occur as a consequence of a structural problem in the economy once the virus passes Recovery will be very strong and rapid.
You can not shutdown half the businesses in the country and pretend that $1T in spending will fix ANYTHING.
GDP means “Gross Domestic PRODUCTION”.
The economy must produce. Those businesses that have been allowed to remain open will with near certainty produce to the extent there is demand. But we only need so much food, and toilet paper, and masks and ….
There is no amount of money that you can pump into the economy that will increase production when you have ordered half of production shutdown.
You seem to have this value that money is magical.
I do not care if the democrats and republicans fall all over themselves and pump $100T into the economy.
Money will not change anything.
Standard of living, GDP is the VALUE WE PRODUCE. Until we go back to producing, nothing government does will do anything but MILDLY change the winners and losers – mostly losers.
Dave regarding all your replies to my two posts: I gave up on being mad at you quite a while ago. Also, arguing with you. You are sincere in your lassaiz faire philosophy and I easily predicted your outlook on this. Peace be with you. I know all kinds of people who believe all kinds of things, good mostly rational people who repeat conspiracy theories etc.
When your posts are simply econ 101 I agree with them.
Priscilla, Jay, Dave can we move this discussion over to Eugenics. This one is extremely slow when using a hand held device.. Just say moving here and then post moved over on Eugenics. Once i see that happening I will do the same.
Ok, I’ll move over there as well.
I am moving to eugenics
Trump is #%€¥*
Any disagreement?
“Trump is #%€¥*”
If course there is – it is completely unclear what you mean.
Trump is many things some good and some bad.
On net his character and policies are both superior to those of Clinton, Biden and Obama.
There is much to criticise about both his character and his policies.
Libertarians have nominated Jo Jorgensen. I doubt she will do better than Johnson did.
Her platform is below. There is nothing I would disagree with – which is more than I can say for either Trump or Biden. It is likely i will vote for her.
But if you put a gun to my head and said you must choose between Trump and any democrat or republican general election candidate running since Bill Clinton or any democrat primary candidate I would have to pick trump.
https://joj2020.com/are-you-willing-to-settle-for-trump-vs-biden/